Dice k in 2008

by realityconquest on Nov 12, 2007 12:19 AM EST Comment 11 comments

What does everyone think of him for next year?

Thanks.

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Dice-K

3.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 190 K's.

by GregJP on Nov 12, 2007 12:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's an interesting question. If The Diceman was a normal rookie, you would predict he would improve his numbers with added maturity and experience. As it is, I would say he is probably as developed as a pitcher as he is ever going to be. There may be room for a small improvement after adjusting to the American version of the game, but there is also a possibility of a significant dropoff now that the hitters in the league have seen him and know better what to expect.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 12, 2007 12:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Could be....

but, my feeling is that he'll be pretty phenomenal. I think he's kind of a pitching genious and he was overthinking at times this year. I think he'll learn to relax a bit more and especially given the fact that he figures to have many leads he can deffinitely improve on last year. Remember, though he is very experienced he was still moving up a BIG level and pitchers still do a LOT of developing after the age of 27. Its still his first go-round in the big leagues and nothing can prepare you for that. I'll bet he is rel good and real durable next year...

223 IP. 190 H, 67 BB, 215 k's 18 hrs

18-7, 3.28

just my somewhat educated guess. He'll get better. The hitters won't figure him out because he's got great stuff and he isn't predictable.

by casejud on Nov 12, 2007 1:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

Dice-K was also adjusting to having one less day of rest than he did in the Japanese leagues. He had a 3.84 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP before the all-star break this year. I think he should be able to maintain that level of production or top it next year.

by McLovin on Nov 12, 2007 1:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting splits

Taking a look at his splits, Dice-K did a very poor job of adjusting to 4 days of rest:

4 days: 5.29 ERA in 13 starts
5 days: 3.83 ERA in 16 starts
6 days: 3.66 ERA in 3 starts

I see no reason to expect he'll do any better with the shorter rest next season, although the Red Sox could have the pitching depth to get him extra days here and there.

I'm also concerned about his durability within games. The deeper into games he went, the more he struggled:

1st time through order: 601 OPS
2nd time through order: 742 OPS
3rd time through order: 848 OPS

Finally, his ERA was probably bit lucky last year, considering he pitched so much better with men on base than with the bases empty.

I wouldn't be surprised to see improvement from Dice-K, but I doubt he'll put up an ERA under 4.00.

by dkdc on Nov 12, 2007 9:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Sox

Are at least considering using a 6-man rotation - with Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling, Lester, Buccholz, and Wakefield. So, that would clearly help Dice-K while also keeping the young guys' innings down. We'll have to see if it actually happens...

by Dfarth on Nov 12, 2007 10:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure

if he was "over-thinking" or if the abuse just caught up to him the second half of the season. He ranks number one on BP's PAP list. I think that fact also tempers my expectations for next year as well. I do agree that the switch from 6 days of rest may have had some effect.

You realize that prospect lists have a time horizon of like 5-10 years, not 5-10 days, right?

by slurve on Nov 12, 2007 8:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

top 10

pitcher in AL with an ERA around 3.5

by pedrophile on Nov 12, 2007 12:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Roll the Dice

19-6, 3.91 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 211 Ks in 203 IP

We're going to have to figure out what to do with the winnings.

by PujolsJunkie on Nov 12, 2007 12:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

6 man rotation?

aren't the sox going with a 6 man rotation next year?

I think Dice K would benefit from that a lot something like..

17-6 3.2

by Fair Projector on Nov 12, 2007 12:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A thing to note....

If the Red Sox DO go to a 6 man rotation and stick with it, expect a lots less decisions than a pitcher might normally get in 33 or so starts. Assuming that a pitcher that starts 33 games will only get, say, 24-25 decisions, it might be harder for members of the staff to win more than 15-16 games.

by Lunkwill Fook on Nov 12, 2007 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs