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Indians BP top 11

Five-Star Prospects
None
Four-Star Prospects

  1. Adam Miller, RHP
  2. Wes Hodges, 3B
  3. Beau Mills, 1B
Three-Star Prospects
  1. Chuck Lofgren, LHP
  2. Nick Weglarz, LF
  3. Aaron Laffey, LHP
  4. Jensen Lewis, RHP
  5. Josh Rodriguez, SS
Two-Star Prospects
  1. Jordan Brown, 1B
  2. Trevor Crowe, OF
  3. David Huff, LHP
Just Missing: Brian Barton, OF; Jared Goedert, 3B; Scott Lewis, LHP; Matt Whitney, 1B

Star-divide

--------

Sort of surprising that Barton didn't make the top 11. Thoughts?

0 recs  |  Comment 37 comments

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Weglarz
I'm surprised he's that high.

He definitely has some potential as a hitter with power, but his defense as an outfielder is relatively brutal,

As a fellow Canadian I'm hoping for him, but he still has a long way to go to become a major league hitter and even an average defensive player.

by GregJP on Nov 11, 2007 4:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think his ceiling is high enough to warrant that
ranking.

Hello GregJP,

Besides the incredible power Weglarz is reported to have (sdtribefan reminded me that Weglarz was hitting HR balls easily into the Mezzanine level at Jacobs Field when he was introduced as a signed draft pick - granted, it was with aluminum bats, but I believe he was only 17-YO at the time, so still not a bad feat, even with aluminum, in my opinion,) Weglarz also has the ability to be patient, as evidenced by his 82 BBs in 439 ABs last year, at age 19.

His K rate is a bit high (129 Ks in 439 ABs,) but as you mentioned, he came from a Canadian HS in Ontario, which means their baseball seasons aren't all that long (certainly not as long as the southern US HSs, and I'm guessing, not as long as the northern US HSs either.)  He was reported to be a bit raw and inexperienced when he was drafted, especially when it came to quality breaking balls, so I don't think his high K totals are really out-of-the-ordinary for someone with his background (see my post at LGT for what I mean by "background",) and certainly not a guarantee he'll always have that extreme a problem with Ks, now that he has seen better breaking balls over the course of a full season.  And, he was reported to be very good at hitting good fastballs even when he was drafted.

As for his defense, keep in mind that this was his first year playing the OF on a regular basis (he was a 1B when he was drafted.)  He did play some OF when he was at Burlington in 2005, but I'm not sure he played OF full-time, and even then, it was only 41 games maximum.  Plus, in an interview I heard or read last year, Weglarz said it took some getting used to reading the ball off the bat and taking the proper routes to the ball, so I suspect he'll get better with more experience, enough to be adequate to solid out in LF, so I'm not too worried about his defense being a liability at this point.

I think his ceiling is quite high - a patient, selective power hitter that put up solid to above-average numbers at Low-A at age 19 - that it warrants Goldstein's #5 ranking on his Top 11 Indians List.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Nov 11, 2007 9:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks
Thanks for that info.  I'm just pissed that I traded him in my keeper league earlier this year.  :-)

by GregJP on Nov 11, 2007 10:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ahh - that explains it! :-)
Hello GregJP,

I see why now, LOL!  :-)

Seriously, Weglarz will need to show improvement in containing his Ks and show improvement playing LF, but being as young as he and how inexperienced he was (both with handling breaking stuff and with playing LF,) I'm not that worried at this point, as I think he can get better in both areas with more experience.  Combine that with his power and ability to take walks, as well as his solid to good season at Low-A at age 19, and I think he is one of the better prospects in the Indians' system, enough to be a Top 5 or so for me.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Nov 11, 2007 11:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not the shining star
I'm used to seeing, but due to normal attrition I guess. Obvious Miller isn't a 5-star due to injury concerns, I think Mills could be by next yr. Is he for sure on 1B? Rodriguez looks like Peralta-Lite.

Yeah, besides age what's the deal w/ Barton?  The parent club can't find some ABs for him by now?

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Nov 11, 2007 4:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

barton
would be interesting if KG had commented on him. he doesn't seem to put up great numbers, but you do think he wouldn't be stuck for the most part in AA still. the indians do have a lot of OFers, though, but Barton's pretty old -- will be 26 before next season starts, I'm guessing KG would say he's just not a prospect?

by scooter on Nov 11, 2007 7:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thoughts on Mills and Barton!
Hello dew,

Regarding Mills, the plan right now is to keep Mills on 3B, as the Indians are pleased enough with his recovery from his injured shoulder and resulting shoulder impingement, as well as his work at 3B to keep him there, which certainly would raise his value (not saying he'd necessarily be higher than #3 on that list, though you could probably make a solid argument for #2, maybe even #1 if you really have doubts about Miller's ability to stay healthy long-term.)

As for Barton, keep in mind he was an undrafted FA out of Miami (FL) from 2004, mostly due to the fact that virtually all ML organizations thought he was going to finish his degree of aerospace engineering, which dropped him off most organizations' radars.  The Indians took a chance on him after sending a scout out to look at him, and so far, has been a pleasant surprise.  

Keep in mind though that he didn't begin play in the Indians' system until the age of 23 in 2005 at Low-A, so he's only spent 3 full seasons in the Minors after the 2007 season.  And, he's only had 87 ABs (25 games) at the AAA level to this point - I'm suspecting the Indians kept guys like OF Jason Cooper and Jonathan Van Every as an insurance policy for the 2007 season in case they needed another OFer with extensive AAA experience (this was before they acquired Lofton to replace the injured Dellucci in LF.)

I would suspect one or both of Cooper/Van Every would be let go, allowing Barton to begin at AAA in 2008, as it seems he doesn't have much left to prove at AA, and besides younger than those two, Barton can play all 3 OF positions (Van Every can also, but not Cooper, who's mostly a corner OF, and usually, LFer.)  

Therefore, I don't think Barton is quite ready to come up to the Majors yet - I know he's older than ideal at age 26, but if he's going to provide any meaningful ability at the ML level for the Indians, I think it will take more AAA experience before he's ready, and personally, I think it would be better for him to come up after having enough AAA experience, even if he's 27-28-YO, then rush him up to the MLs now at 26-27, as I don't think he'd be more than a 4th-5th OFer at best, and mostly for his defensive ability and baserunning, at this point.  I think with more AAA experience, his ceiling can be higher than just a 4th-5th OFer, either as a possible starter in LF for the Indians, or at least, be part of a platoon that plays 2-4 or 3-5 times a week.  Plus, if he plays at AAA and does well, it could also boost his trade value a bit (could probably be a solid RFer if he can hit for consistent power or be a CFer for another ML team,) moreso than just being a 4th-5th OFer on the ML roster to start the 2008 season.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Nov 11, 2007 9:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Van Every
FYI, Van Every is now a minor league FA.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=644

Also, an interesting decision approaches for the Indians.  They have to add Whitney to the 40-man roster or he will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft.

I think the Tribe will get some inquiry from someone about Sowers or Lee and they will eventually trade Whitney and Lee for a corner OF with power, or a CF to prep for eventual move of Grady to LF.

Just my thoughts.

by lenred on Nov 12, 2007 11:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the info.!
Hello lenred,

Thanks for the info. on Van Every - greatly appreciated!  :-)  I'll be surprised if both Van Every and Cooper are back in Buffalo next year, and could very well see both gone - after all, you have Brown/Crowe/Barton all about ready to go up to AAA (certainly by June of 2008 at the latest,) and you still have guys like Francisco/Choo/Snyder still in that AAA mix as well, so I could definitely see the Indians parting ways with Cooper/Van Every.  

Besides that, Francisco can play all 3 OF spots, and based on their track records and his success at the ML level last year, I would think Francisco would be the far better choice over Cooper and Van Every, which should make both of them expendable.

Thanks also for the info. on Whitney and the 40-man - I could see Whitney being included in a trade for a corner OF with power or perhaps a late-inning reliever/closer prospect.  As for moving Grady to LF, I suspect that won't happen for a while, especially since he just won a GC in CF.  While Grady's arm is weaker than one would like out there, his other defensive skills in CF are at least solid, if not above-average, so I'll be surprised if they move Grady out of CF anytime soon, even though I can see reasons for you suggesting that.

Heck, Gutierrez is arguably a better defender than Grady (certainly has even more range than Sizemore, as Sizemore has to hustle to cover the same ground Gutierrez can, plus has a much better arm than Grady,) but the Indians have no plans of shifting Grady to LF and moving Gutz to CF, so it's doubtful Grady is moving to LF anytime soon.

Regarding Whitney, if you can upgrade the Indians in one of the areas I mentioned above, or perhaps a solid starter or starting pitcher prospect, I'd consider parting ways with Whitney.  Otherwise, I'd prefer to keep him in the system for now (protect him from the Rule 5 if possible,) as I think he could be one of those late developers with the bat.

I think that unfortunate leg injury he suffered really set him back and it took him a couple of years to really get himself on track again, probably both from a physical standpoint and a mental standpoint, as he was a highly-touted prospect coming out of HS (his swing and projection were being compared to Manny Ramirez's,) then he winds up making a poor decision of chasing after a basketball and tearing up his leg.  That had to be devastating for him, as well as having to stay in Low-A for a few years to regain his health and his timing, all the while knowing that he was a 1st-Rd. pick and had a lot of expectations.  I think he put a lot of pressure on himself to try to come back and do too much too quickly, which is probably a major reason why he had such a poor year at High-A in 2006, trying to make up for lost time, but looked totally different at the same level after he got into a good groove in Low-A in 2007, leading to his respectable numbers at High-A in 2007.  

I think that he seems to have his confidence back and would be curious to see how he does in AA; like I said, if there's a good trade out there that would involve him, I wouldn't be averse to trading him, but I'd prefer to lose him that way than to lose him in the Rule 5 Draft for nothing.

Just my 2 cents.

Again, thanks for the info.!  :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Nov 12, 2007 6:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

thoughts
i don't much like wes hodges or beau mills, but i think KG is underrating matt mcbride and aaron laffey.  so, as usual, it evens out in the end,

the pitching side of this organization leaves a lot to be desired, though, and if sowers or miller or lofgren fall short of their ceilings, the team is going to have a hard time maintaining their window past 2009.

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (link fixed)
variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Nov 11, 2007 5:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The pitching does thin out a bit after those three
(as well as guys like RHP Brian Slocum, LHP Scott Lewis) but there are a number of intriguing young arms in the lower Minors.

Hello overlord,

The farm system isn't totally barren of pitching at the lower levels:

Low-A:

20-YO RHP Paolo Espino - link  (Has great stuff and could either be a solid to good starter or good to great reliever, as he was even more dominant as a reliever in 2007, as you can see here.)
19-YO RHP Jeanmar Gomez - link  (Held his own in Low-A at age 18.)
19-YO RHP Hector Rondon - link  (Held his own in Low-A at age 19; has a fastball that reaches the low-90s, according to this BA blog post, plus has plenty of projection.)
19-YO LHP Ryan Morris - link  (Highly regarded coming out of the 2006 Draft and has already reached Low-A.)

SS-A:
19-YO LHP Kelvin De La Cruz - link (command an issue for the 19-YO Dominican, but has great stuff.)
19-YO RHP Santo Frias - link (has solid to great stuff and jumped from the GCL to Low-A in 2007, and could possibly start in Low-A in 2008.)

This doesn't include prospects like RHP Christopher Archer (highly thought of coming out of the 2006 Draft and has great stuff, but will likely be a long-term project due to inconsistent command,) LHP T.J. McFarland (highly-thought of HS pick from the 2007 Draft, but signed too late to play in 2007,) and LHP Christopher Jones (HS draftee out of Tampa, FL who was also a highly-thought of 2007 draft pick and just turned 19 this past September.)

There are also some nice reliever prospects, including AAer LHP Reid Santos and RHP Jeff Stevens, High-Aers RHP Neil Wagner (see the Rondon link above for info. on Wagner) and LHP Ryan Edell, and Low-Aer RHP Mike Pontius, among others, including AAA LHP Tony Sipp, if he can recover fully from TJ surgery he had this past season, and SS-A Kyle Landis, who had a great debut and could move quickly.

Therefore, the farm system is not barren of pitching, though many are not well-known, and many are a distance off, but there are a decent number with high ceilings, and several others that could fill roles for the Indians in the future.  Keep in mind that LHP Rafael Perez and RHP Jensen Lewis were not expected to be shutdown relievers when the season started, as they were only considered as decent to solid prospects at best, but neither in the "great" category.  RHP Fausto Carmona himself had not been considered a great prospect outside of his 2003 season at Low-A Lake County, yet has done pretty well in his own right to this point as well, so the possibility of one or a few emerging from the system when you wouldn't expect it is always a possibility, even though they might not jump out at you right now.  A tweak of the mechanics here, the refined development of a pitch or command there, and a prospect you wouldn't expect to be much of a factor suddenly becomes one; I think there's enough intriguing possibilities in the Indians' system to yield a few more surprises in the coming years.

Also keep in mind that the Indians will have Carmona and Westbrook into the next decade; if they can resign Sabathia (a sizable if, but a "realistic" possibility, according to GM Mark Shapiro,) that's three Indians pitchers that will be around into the next decade.  They'd only need two (presuming they don't sign a veteran comparable to Byrd to fill one spot, which is a possibility,) to develop from Miller/Lofgren/Sowers/Laffey/Slocum/S. Lewis to take them through 2009.  By that time, it's possible others could emerge or be on the verge of emerging (AA or AAA) from the Low-A group I mentioned above.  So, I think the farm system could have enough candidates to supply the rotation and keep the Indians strong after 2009, and that's presuming that no one else steps up between now and then.

Therefore, while the number of pitching prospects the Indians have now is arguably not as many as they've had the last few years (especially due to the graduation of guys like Jensen Lewis, Aaron Laffey, and Rafael Perez,) some over at LGT (including me) think that we might have more higher-ceiling pitchers than we've had in a while, especially since many of the ones at Low-A Lake County this past season were in their late teens (Gomez, Rondon, Morris) or 20 (Espino.)  In the last few seasons, most of the starting pitchers at Lake County were college draftees with low ceilings, with a few Latin American pitchers that were older than the group that was there in 2007; in fact, the last young SP prospect I can think of that was young (late teens to 20-YO) and considered a highly-thought of pitcher at Low-A Lake County was RHP Fausto Carmona in 2003 at age 19.  Even LHP Rafael Perez was 22 when he put up a solid season at Low-A in 2004.

Therefore, I think there is some pitching depth in the Indians' farm system, but most of the higher-ceiling ones are in the lower Minors (Low-A and below.)  The ones at High-A and above are more of the middle- to back-end of the rotation and/or solid to good relievers, outside of Miller and maybe Lofgren.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Nov 12, 2007 12:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You could maybe add Huff to that list of pitchers
as well - somehow, I forgot him, though he was out for a good part of last year with an injury, but is back pitching in the AFL, and supposedly, is staying healthy, so if he can move as quickly as many think he can, he too could be in that mix with Miller/Lofgren/Sowers/Laffey/Slocum/S. Lewis as well.

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Nov 12, 2007 12:28 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Your thoughts indiansfan
Just wanted your thoughts and what you think the ceilings are for Kelvin De La Cruz and Jeanmar Gomez. I agree with you and feel that these two may jump out at people next year. Just wanted to know your thoughts

by FishHead on Nov 12, 2007 2:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My thoughts on De La Cruz and Gomez!
Hello FishHead,

I've only heard a little bit about De La Cruz, but from what I've read and heard, it seems he has pretty good stuff, but like many young pitchers, has trouble locating and commanding it consistently.

That's why in a few starts last season at SS-A, he only lasted 4 innings and walked 4-5 guys in that span.  However, there were other starts where he went 5-6 IP and only walked 2-3 guys and gave up 2-4 hits, along with striking out 5-8 guys.

So, I think he has high potential, but I think it might take him a little while to fully harness it as he moves up the system.  Fortunately, he's only 19-YO (will turn 20-YO in January 2008,) so he has at least a few years to figure it out.  It's very early to project him, but right now, I'd think he'd have a chance of being a frontline starter with his stuff and high K rates, provided he can continue to harness his command.

As for Gomez, I think both he and Rondon put up respectable numbers in Low-A for only being 18-19-YO (Gomez being 18 during the 2007 season, Rondon being 19.)  I know from BA that Rondon has a lot of projection in his 6'3" 170 lb. build, and he still reached 92 MPH with his fastball in 2007, so I think he definitely could be a sleeper and could be a #2/#3 starter if he continues to develop.  I haven't heard as much about Gomez's stuff, but from what I have seen and heard, it seems that Gomez should also have some projection left in him, being that he's only 6'3" 168 lb., plus the fact he's a bit younger than Rondon.  

Gomez had just under 3 BB/9 IP and just over 6 K/9 IP in 2007 at Low-A, plus had a solid 1.32 GO/AO ratio, so it seems he could be a guy who could have solid command and can get a fair number of Ks and an above-average number of GOs.  Depending on how he develops, I think he could be at least a solid to very solid #3, maybe even have a chance to become a solid #2 if his stuff and command continue to develop and he can keep or increase that K rate.  It also would be beneficial if he can keep or decrease that H rate a bit, as it was over 1 H/IP, though he was just 18 and was in a full-season league for the first time, so it's not that concerning at this point, but something he'll need to keep working on as he moves up the system, especially if he is to become a #2/#3 starter.  Reducing his HR rate (19 in 140.2 IP - 1.22 HR/9 IP) would also help him reach that ceiling as well.  Fortunately, like Rondon and De La Cruz, he has time (a year more development time than the other two, in fact, being that they'll be 20 for the 2008 season, whereas Gomez will only be 19.)

Just my 2 cents - hopefully, this is helpful!  :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Nov 12, 2007 6:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Very Helpful
Thank you very much, I really respect your oppinion, you really know your stuff

by FishHead on Nov 13, 2007 2:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You're very welcome! :-)
Hello FishHead,

You're very welcome - happy to help!  :-)

Thanks for the compliment as well - greatly appreciated!

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Nov 13, 2007 8:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hodges and Lofgren
Would have thought that those two might have been in each others position despite Lofgren's mediocre year.

What does the community think of these two guys.  I don't hear much on either of them.

by Guyute on Nov 11, 2007 5:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

hodges
i've owned hodges all year in my deep league and i'm still not totally sure what i think of him.  his numbers were really nothing revolutionary for a college player in A+, but the scouting reports keep on being better than that.  i've never seen him so i have no way of knowing what they're seeing or if they're right.

by wily mo on Nov 11, 2007 5:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Me too
I nabbed him w/ my 2nd pick last year.  Like you said his stats haven't been amazing but they've been consistently good.  The thing I always liked about him were the "intangible" things they'd write about him.  How he taught himself to bat lefthanded after a HS wrist injury and went on to hit .430.  He's got a very well rounded set of skills and a leg injury as a senior dropped him out of the 1st round.  I'm hoping I got my hands on Bill Mueller type guy, a name I've heard thrown around a couple times w/ Hodges.

by Guyute on Nov 11, 2007 6:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

bill mueller...
interesting comp. the thing i noticed is that in the 'best tools' survey at Baseballl America, he was voted best power prospect in the Carolina League and best defensive 3Bman. I don't know about best power prospect, I might go with stats and scouts on that, but the defensive 3Bman did strike me as valid info since the Carolina Lg managers likely see him much more than any scout, and certainly much more than any prospect analyst. there are murmurs about his defense, but that answers them sufficiently for me (insofar as they can be answered, that is).

in terms of his hitting, the numbers are good but not overwhelming, but combined with the very good scouting reports on how he can consistently square up the ball, he does sound like a very good prospect. the 4 star rating Goldstein gave him seems about right.

Maybe top 60 or 65 on a top 100 list at this point?

by scooter on Nov 11, 2007 6:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
This is nitpicking, since they are both 4 stars, but I was very surprised to see Hodges ahead of Mills.  Maybe it's due to that good but not great performance in the Carolina league, but Hodges just feels like more of a 3 star player with upside to go to 4 if he continues to succeed.

by guru4u on Nov 12, 2007 1:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I see what you mean and had similar thoughts
about Hodges.

Hello guru4u,

I too had similar thoughts; that's why in a recent LGT post, I had considered trading Hodges in the right deal (it was in a proposed deal for Bay, though now that I think more about it, I'm not sure I'd be as willing to trade Hodges for Bay; for someone like Miguel Cabrera, I'd be more willing, but for Bay, Hodges might be a bit too high, especially since Bay had a sub-par 2007 season and has been known to be a streaky hitter with a lot of Ks.)

While I like Hodges, I have some concerns over his struggles with controlling the strike zone at High-A last year, as well as his ability to stay healthy (he had a wrist injury, I believe, last season, that kept him out for a few weeks, leading to him only playing in 104 G.)  Perhaps having a full season under his belt after the broken bone in his leg might enable him to now really put up a great performance, rather than just a solid one, but I too was a bit surprised Hodges rated as a 4-star on Goldstein's list.

I know his defense projects to be better than Mills' at 3B, but right now, I'd say Mills has the potential to have the better bat and better power overall than Hodges.  Again, perhaps having a full season under his belt after the leg injury will enable him to really come out and hit for the power that I think many are expecting from him (more than the 15 he hit at High-A Kinston last year in 393 ABs.)  Plus, looking over his numbers, he wore down after the ASB, hitting only .260/.346/.436, as compared to his pre-ASB numbers of .325/.395/.524, so perhaps the wrist injury and the fact his final season at Ga. Tech was cut short from the leg injury led to his timing being thrown off and his endurance not holding up over the whole season.  Plus, it was his first professional season and the longest season he has played to date, so perhaps that too factored into Goldstein's ranking.  

I'll be curious to see what Hodges can do at AA this season - perhaps we'll see the 4-star ability that Goldstein is estimating in Hodges' 2nd pro season and a season removed from that leg injury.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Nov 12, 2007 7:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It looks to me like BP phoned it in!
Hi indiansfan,

Good stuff from you as usual.  Hodges does not belong at #2.  Anyone who has seen them play to any extent knows that Rodriguez is a superior prospect.  Hodges biggest deficiency is his lateral movement at 3B.  The other issues can be corrected and I think he will be a productive bat but I see the possibility of another 1B-OF which the Tribe does not need.

I know the Tribe organization is difficult to rate with its abundance of C+/B- prospects but to overlook Carlos Rivero, John Drennen, Ben Francisco, Matt McBride, all of whom completed successful, healthy years at full season leagues and belong ahead of many of the listed prospects really shows no one from BP saw them play.  Even their outlook on injured players does not show consistency.  Yes, they drop Miller but keep Huff.  Does Huff really have a higher upside than Sipp?

I have to wonder what they were thinking when Jordan Brown is at the bottom of the list.  Defensively, he is adequate or better at 1B and LF and may be the best hitter in the upper minors.  I expect his power and speed to improve with a healthy left leg even at his age.

I think John will agree it is difficult to assess the Tribe's talent.  John's assessment was much better than BA's but there were major contributors to Cleveland's season that were ranked 13 or lower on his prospect list by John and even unrated in one case.  I am thinking a lot of C+ ratings should have been higher.

BTW, any comparison between Peralta and Rodriguez is way off base.  Yes, he has Peralta's power but he fields more like AsCab.  Not nearly as big as Jhonny.

by sdtribefan on Nov 13, 2007 8:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you on rating the Indians' system
as being difficult.

Hello sdtribefan,

Thanks for the compliment - greatly appreciated!  :-)  Your thoughts are very good as well.

I had heard some concerns about Hodges' lateral movement at 3B (I presume due to the leg injury he suffered,) but did not hear that it was affecting his defense too much now.  Plus, I haven't heard any mention of his shifting positions at this point - down the road, I could see it, but I suspect he'll remain at 3B for the next few years, at least.

Now, if Asdrubal Cabrera was over playing at SS, you probably could put Hodges at 3B and not have much concern because Hodges wouldn't have to cover that much ground.  If Peralta remains there, then I think Hodges' lack of lateral movement could be more of a concern, but I think at some point, Cabrera will be the Indians' future SS, with Peralta either shifting to 3B, the OF, or becoming trade bait.  I suspect though that won't be for a few more years (around 2009-2010 - I think Peralta is under team control through 2011 after his option year, maybe 2012, so around 2010, I could see Peralta being possible trade bait, especially if CC is resigned, as it's likely a core player or two would have to be moved as the chances of resigning them and locking up more payroll would be slim at best.)

I agree about rating the Indians' farm system - it's difficult because there aren't many "blue-chip" prospects that leap out at you like some other organizations do (the Yankees and Red Sox for instance,) but the Indians have several solid prospects, with some that could turn into blue-chippers with a little more development, including some of the position players you mentioned (Rivero, Drennen, Cumberbatch, Mills, Hodges, Rodriguez, Goedert) and several of the young pitchers at the lower levels (especially at Low-A Lake County) that really haven't got much publicity yet (Espino, Morris, Frias, De La Cruz, Gomez, Rondon, etc.)

Speaking of the Low-A Captains, this past season was the first time in the last few years where there were a lot of promising young players there who had high ceilings; in recent seasons, it was mostly college draftees with low to mid-level ceilings - granted, McBride was there for much of the season, and Goedert was there for a brief period as well, but you also had Rivero, Cumberbatch, the younger-than-usual Mills, and most of the young pitchers I listed above there for much of the season at Low-A as well.

Regarding Brown, I think he sometimes gets overlooked because he isn't your typical power-hitting 1B, but is more in that Mark Grace-Sean Casey-mold of 1B - .300+ BA, decent power (10-20 HRs,) above-average speed (10-20 SBs,) and solid to above-average defense at 1B (which Brown's 1B defense is reported to be.)  

With Garko looking to be at 1B for a while, potentially, that's the main reason why the Indians want Brown playing LF (along with the fact that LF is the most open OF position on the Indians right now and the fact that Brown's best OF position would most likely be LF rather than RF.)  

I agree that Brown's leg being repaired (I think he's having surgery in the offseason) should help him, even though he hit pretty well all season and only was caught stealing twice all season (though he didn't run as much in the 2nd half.)

Regarding Rodriguez, I think the comparisons to Jhonny are both based on his offensive ability and the fact that Rodriguez struggled defensively at 2B in 2007 (mostly with his throws, I think.)  However, I think his defensive consistency improved a bit towards the end of the season if I remember correctly, so I think his defense can improve enough in time for him to be at least solid to even above-average - I'm not overly concerned about his defense right now, as many MI prospects have trouble with errors in the Minors, especially the lower Minors.  

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Nov 13, 2007 11:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's not a big deal but I think, without looking
it up, that Rodriguez played nearly every game at SS.

Hi again indiansfan,

Rodriguez is a terrific fielder who often borders on spectacular.  His biggest problem, IMHO, is that he gets to balls that other SSs don't and is in love with the great play.  Goes out of his way to do the difficult and makes errors as a result.  I don't think he compares too unfavorably to Cabrera(his arm is probably not as good) and you know I think highly of Cabrera.  I understand that some think he will grow into a 3B but he doesn't seem to have the same body type as Marte, Hodges or even Rivero who is much younger and will probably get much bigger.  It's premature to even discuss next year but I consider him the most likely to get to Buffalo among the Aero IFers.

by sdtribefan on Nov 14, 2007 6:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, I think you're right about him playing SS;
most say he'll probably move to 2B, but I had that on my brain when I was writing about Rodriguez, when in fact he did play SS - whoops!

Hello sdtribefan,

Sorry about that - I should have caught that, especially considering guys like Goedert and Finegan (?!) played 2B for Kinston last season.

Your description of his defense does remind me of Cabrera's, as the Indians had him focus more on making the routine play more consistently as Cabrera would sometimes try to put too much effort or flash into a defensive play when he didn't need to - this could lead to errors or just using up more energy than he needed to.  Rodriguez sounds very much like that - hopefully, like Cabrera, it can be corrected and Rodriguez can become at least an above-average defender.  

As you mentioned regarding his arm, that's why most are thinking he'll move off SS at some point - I think there is a split argument between 2B and 3B.  Personally, I agree with you about his moving to 3B - I think he could handle it (especially since he can play SS,) but I don't know if he'd provide the overall power you'd want from your 3B (30+ HRs, etc.)  Plus, Rodriguez would have more value at SS or 2B, and besides that, 2B is a weaker spot in the organization (Goedert, if he remains there,) than 3B is (Marte, Hodges, Mills.)  

And, as I mentioned before, I expect Cabrera will become the Indians' future SS at some point, leaving 2B open (I'm not sure Barfield will hit enough to take the starting spot, though he still has a little more time to prove he can hit enough, but even if he does, I suspect he'll be trade bait down the road, mostly due to Boras being his agent and the fact Barfield could be a nice trade chip if he can rebound.)  That's why I think Rodriguez will eventually fit in at 2B, where his arm strength won't be as much of an issue, yet he can still provide great defense there, and his offensive skills would be even more valuable (HR, 2B, 3B, SB, good BB/K ratio, etc.)

Just my 2 cents.

Again, thanks for the correction - didn't even notice that, probably due to many things on the mind of late.  :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Nov 14, 2007 5:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i dunno
carolina lg managers rated Hodges the best defensive 3Bman in the league, so his movement couldn't have been that bad. i'd tend to trust them on that.

by scooter on Nov 14, 2007 12:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I can believe Hodges was the best defensive
3B in a league with only 8 3B and still think my observation is accurate.  Only reporting what I have seen and been confirmed by more perceptive evaluators of baseball talent than me.

by sdtribefan on Nov 14, 2007 6:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hodges...
...can it be said that he is the "Jordan Schafer of Third Base?"
It's Business Time

by uga007 on Nov 11, 2007 7:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

heyo
i've got schafer too!  thanks to some timely muttering i picked up in the back alleys of this very site.  i'm not sure what being the jordan schafer of 3B entails, exactly, though.

i had practically the entire kinston infield on my roster for a while there - hodges, j-rod and goedert.  but i traded goedert for the last month of jd drew, which worked out pretty well.  you all care deeply about minor occurrences in my fantasy league.

those three and even whitney - literally the entire infield on that kinston team was kind of interesting and prospecty.  

i like goedert a little bit more than he's being given credit for as an also-ran (of course i've never seen him either); his season was thrown off a bit by the shoulder injury right after he got promoted from low-A, but he seems to be able to hit and managed to play most of the year at 2B.

by wily mo on Nov 11, 2007 7:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Schafer = Hodges...
..."his numbers were really nothing revolutionary for a college player in A+, but the scouting reports keep on being better than that."

-your post 5 up from this one

" The thing I always liked about him were the "intangible" things they'd write about him...He's got a very well rounded set of skills"

-Guyute's post 4 up from here

All sounds like Schafer.

It's Business Time

by uga007 on Nov 11, 2007 11:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Disagree pretty completely
Schafer is a HS draftee who had pretty exceptional numbers this year. Though I agree that he gets slapped with the "intangibles" tag, that can be said of a plethora of prospects, and I don't see how he underplayed his scouting reports whatsoever.

by aCone419 on Nov 11, 2007 11:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

numbers
eh, the numbers thing doesn't really apply.  schafer had essentially the same OPS as hodges at the same level, but he's two years younger and not a college player, destroyed low-A for a while before that and was in one of the worst hitting parks in the minors.   in that context, his numbers are awesome.  hell, he led the minors in hits.  

by wily mo on Nov 11, 2007 11:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He supposedly will stay at 2B, at least for now!
Hello wily mo,

You're correct about the shoulder injury; I believe that was the main reason why his High-A numbers don't look so good on the surface after he tore apart Low-A.

Just as he was starting to get acclimated to High-A, he had the shoulder injury, which took about 6-8 weeks to come back from if I remember correctly.

However, he finished strong at High-A, as in August, he hit .309/.426/.636 with 4 HR/16 RBI and a 12 BB/8 K ratio in 55 AB/17 G.

Therefore, it wouldn't surprise me if Goedert starts off strong at High-A in 2008 and be up to AA by June or July at the latest.    

If he can provide that type of offensive production while playing a solid 2B (and pretty much did in 2007, as the Indians plan on keeping him there, and I think he made fewer than 10 Es at 2B, I believe,) he could become a blue-chip position prospect for the Indians.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Nov 12, 2007 12:25 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

depth
The Indians seem like the anti-Mets, almost.  No true blue-chip prospects, but a lot of depth.  If a few of these guys break out, they could be ranked very highly next year.

Honestly, the thing surprised me most was how high he still is on Sowers in his top 10 under-25 Indians rankings:

  1.  Fausto Carmona, RHP
  2. Adam Miller, RHP
  3. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS/2B
  4. Wes Hodges, 3B
  5. Beau Mills, 1B
  6. Jeremy Sowers, LHP
  7. Andy Marte, 3B
  8. Chuck Lofgren, LHP
  9. Nick Weglarz, LF
  10. Aaron Laffey, LHP
"I feel like I've been around long enough at shortstop to be the leader of Jose Castillo." -- Jack Wilson

by delomir on Nov 11, 2007 5:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hodges
For some reason like you guys have said, he is harder than most to find a lot of info on him. There's a lot of pre-minor league stuff. But not much on him since the minors.

by nborton on Nov 11, 2007 8:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

i will say
if that picture of adam miller BP is running on the front page right now is really his regular delivery, i think he's doomed.  no wonder he's hurt all the time.  damn.  

of course i don't actually know anything.  but i've been reading the online mechanical analysts and now i think i'm an expert myself.

by wily mo on Nov 12, 2007 12:24 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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