McCann v. Mauer Revisted.

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 8, 2007 1:38 AM EDT Comment 54 comments

This diary Caused quite a bit of stir last year I'd like to Revist it a year later.

Mauer put up this line

.293/.382/.426/.808 in 406 at bats. With a 57/51 BB/K ratio his ISO power went form .160 to .133 with only 7 HRs this year he was injured a lot and supposedly played with a Hernia for at least part of the year but it's still not a great sign that he power went down when it should be going up.

McCann put up this line in 504 at bats

.270/.320/.452/.772 with 18 hrs and 38 2bs for a ISO power of .182 down from .239 last year but he to battled through injuries during the year but still managed to get 100 more at bats than Mauer.
McCann's BB/K ratio also suffered this year going from 41/54 to 35/74.

Both players regressed a bit and the high expectations that we put on them after last year have probably been tempered some to say the least. What is the future for these 2 catchers are they still going to be the 2 best catchers in baseball long term or have they all ready been passed by Russell Martin?

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give me

Russell Martin all day long. he has more of a complete package of tools then both and a more well rounded game with superior defense.

by High Heater on Oct 8, 2007 7:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

except not

There's no way he has a more complete package of tools than Mauer. Get out of your little fantasy world.

Defense is subjective but from my own viewings, Martin does NOT live up to his defensive reputation at all.

Come from where you hide, So I may unchain my tempest, None will stop my tide, And you will tremble at my unrest.

by fyug on Oct 8, 2007 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry to burst your bubble

but Martin looks like he equals if not exceeds Mauer in power. exceeds him in steals and plays everyday. Mauer has a better eye at the plate but Martin is no slouch at all.

Martin has a body built for behind the plate unlike Mauer who's about 6'6 now.

Martin brings a much better overall package to the plate then any C in the game. please prove that wrong with any stat on Mauer i'd love to see how this one's spun.

by High Heater on Oct 8, 2007 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not all about the stats

It's about the projection. Mauer's raw tools surpass the others', he just hasn't fully developed them yet. That doesn't mean that he won't fulfill his lofty expectations, it just might take him a bit longer. Still Mauer in his prime should outdo any of these guys.

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Oct 8, 2007 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hasn't fully developed yet?

He puts up a line of

.347/.429/.507/.936

And hasn't even yet fully developed? Scary!

by siddfynch on Oct 9, 2007 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scary Indeed

I'm not sure if he'll ever top that Avg. But I could see a .330 season with 20-25 HRs and 15 SBs in the somewhat near future. All he has to do is stay healthy.

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Oct 9, 2007 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Spin

Martin's peak so far:
.293/.374/.469/.843 with 19 HR. 67BB/89K.

Mauer's peak so far:
.347/.429/.507/.936, with 13 HR. 79BB/54K.

Even in 2007, when Mauer was hurt, his OBP was still higher than Martin's.

So yeah, Mauer profiles as having shown way better hitting skills so far, albeit with slightly less power. (Shrug - George Brett also had less power than George Foster (or George Scott) - but you see no arguments about who was the better hitter). the two are essentially the same age, so you could even make an argument that Mauer has been better ARL, given that his breakout season occurred a year earlier.

Add in the defense, and it's Mauer in a slam dunk. Who cares if Martin has a better "build" for the plate - Mauer's actual performance behind the dish is better by all accounts.

Now, if you REALLY want to eat some crow, compare Martin's peak (2007) to McCann's peak in 2006. McCann crushes him in every hitting aspect - BB/K, HR, OBP, SLG, OPS. Even in 2007, when McCann struggled with injuries all season, he still matched Martin in HR, and beat him in SLG. Oh, and he is a year younger. And, even better, he might beat Martin in catcher's "build."

Martin is a nice player who put together a nice season while others stuggled with injury. He might end up putting up better numbers when all is said and done - but he hasn't, yet.

You can also toss out the steals...20 steals from my catcher is nice, but is a distant 4th in the major factors I'd use to eveluate his worth. As someone above says, that's nice for fantasy.

by siddfynch on Oct 8, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Crushes"

'beats" would be a more appropriate term. Still, McCann's hitting numbers were better across the board, while being 2 years younger.

by siddfynch on Oct 8, 2007 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

somebody's a fantasy player

Mauer has more power potential, superior batspeed, better plate discipline, better defense...if you're t going to sit here and try and tell me that Martin is better because he steals more bases, you need to get a clue.

Oh, and Martin's 70% success rate stealing bases isn't good. He's hurting his team by getting caught that much. It's not an awful success rate, but you should know that various studies have shown you need to be > than 75% before you have a positive effect on your team's offense. Mauer, despite running less frequently, has an excellent 85% success rate.

Oh, and a batting title...at age 23. I resmy case.

Come from where you hide, So I may unchain my tempest, None will stop my tide, And you will tremble at my unrest.

by fyug on Oct 9, 2007 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mauer's defense

I have read numerous scouting reports on Mauer's defense that suggest he's in the top tier of catchers all time defensively. All things considered, he's the best I've ever seen, and I've seen both Bench and Rodriguez.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Oct 9, 2007 7:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dont know about....

... THAT good defensively. Until this year I think Pudge was still, even in old age, better than Mauer has ever looked defensively. I'll be fair, I never saw Bench play, but Ive heard great things about his D as well (though Mauer is pretty great behind the plate). Thats not to say Mauer wont get there though. He is certainly top tier right now and will likely be one of the best defensive catchers in baseball until he moves from behind the plate.

On other note, I think everyone who is raving about his power potential needs to remember the Sean Burroughs case study John did. I tend to think, even with his size, Mauer doesnt seem like he will develop into a big time power threat. Still a great hitter, but I tend to agree that hes more of a peak 20 HR guy than 30+ HR guy. I used to think otherwise, but Im starting to see that he just doesnt lift the ball like he would need to. He rockets line drives around, but they dont look like hits that will translate into HRs as he gets older.

by grozzy on Oct 9, 2007 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mauer

I think he'll be the best long term, even if he is definitely the least likely to stay healthy. At least Redmond is an adequate backup catcher.

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Oct 8, 2007 9:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

just for some fun with sample sizes

beginning on May 31st, he started hitting like an animal. however, in the last week of the season he went 0 for 21.

Day by Day database spits out the following line from 5/31 to 9/22:

.405/.460/.520 - 331 AB

wowie

by PooNani on Oct 8, 2007 9:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

McCann was hurt for a while

His average was down in the .250's for sometime as battled injuries.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 8, 2007 9:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

no one concerned over martin's second half?

307 AB's vs. 233 AB's

20 2B's vs. 12 2B's

11 HR's vs. 8 HR's

60 RBI's vs. 27 RBI's

.492 SLG vs. .438 SLG

certainly seems like he wore down, especially in september

by Wheelhouse on Oct 8, 2007 10:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

true but

they ride him alot in LA, he plays almost every game for them behind the dish so thats bound to happen to anyone.

by High Heater on Oct 8, 2007 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

asdf

I'd take Martin, absolutely. And I'm a Twins fan.

by BenB on Oct 8, 2007 10:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why?

Certainly not for the offense. Does Martin call a better game or something?

by siddfynch on Oct 8, 2007 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Martin

Assuming Mauer's 2006 was a fluke, they have very similar averages, OBP's, and slugging. Martin has more power and steals more bases. He's also been more durable so far. I'm not sure about defense since I don't see the NL on regular basis. Maybe a Dodger fan can help me out?

by BenB on Oct 8, 2007 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2006

Why would you assume 2006 as a fluke and not 2007?

by ian on Oct 8, 2007 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mauer

Because 2007 is much more in line with his pre-2006 career. He could surprise me and have a 2006-like year next year, but I'm not counting on it.

by BenB on Oct 8, 2007 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Small sample size

He's been in the majors for four years, one of which was mostly an injury year. So out of three years of playing most of the time, how can you assess which year is a fluke and which not? It seems statistically foolish to say one out of three is a fluke.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Oct 9, 2007 7:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

awesome

This is amazing dude. You realize he was like 22 before 2006, right?

by limozeen on Oct 9, 2007 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Twins fans everywhere

are reading this and rejoicing that you are not on the short list to replace Terry Ryan.

by siddfynch on Oct 9, 2007 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mauer

24 and already having leg problems that are causing him to miss more than a third of the season... I don't care what tools you've got, if you're not behind the plate, they're useless. I think Mauer gets moved out from behind the plate by age 28 at the latest ( wanted to say 26, but I'll be a little more liberal) and at any other position (i.e. 1b, 3b) his hitting skills stop being significant enough to make a fuss about.

As for his power, just because he's young and big doesn't mean it will develop. Maybe it will, but I have a hunch it won't happen while he's behind the plate.

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 10, 2007 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually

I'd play Devil's Advocate here...and say that about 15 teams in the majors would welcome a 3B, 1B, or LF that posts a .900+ OPS at age 23 in the majors. And they wouldn't care too much if the stick never ends up hitting 30+ HRs - what's key is that OPS, whether it comes with a .600 SLG while hitting #4, or a .400 OBP/.500 SLG while hitting in the 2-hole. Remember, that 400/500 was put up as a 23-yr-old - ordinarily, we would think of as 23-yr-olds season as representing his baseline (at worst) not his peak. So no reason to think a healthy Mauer can't post .900+ OPS again in the future, especially not with the way he controls the strike zone.

A quick rundown of who could have used Mauer at 3B or LF this year:

MIL
STL
HOU
PIT
LAD
SF
SDG
AZ
PHI
WAS

OK, that's the NL alone. I think his bat would be plenty valuable in LF or 3B, or even 1B on the right team.

by siddfynch on Oct 10, 2007 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another One

I'm sure every Cubs' fan would love to have Mauer in LF over Soriano. Though having Joe in RF would look good too. :) Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Oct 10, 2007 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

See my post way above

So early in their careers, it is useful to use their peak thus far as a barometer. I have absolutely no problem writing off Mauer's 2007 to injury, and using 2006 as his peak year to compare to Martin's 2007.

In which case, their averages, OBP, and slugging are not similar. Heck, Mauer's OBP in 2007 (his "down" year) still beat Martin's. And look at their BB/K. Mauer has all the classic signs of a far better hitter who simply doesn't hit quite as many HRs (but does for overall power, as idicated by slugging). And keep in mind that Maeur's tremendous 2006 season came at age 23. Age 23! As a Twin's fan, you should be very, very happy to have this guy for his stick alone.

The bottom line is that Mauer has shown far better hitting skills, at an age one year earlier in his development.

by siddfynch on Oct 9, 2007 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mauer

I am happy to have him. Hopefully when he's not injured he can have a year closer to 2006, but it still seems pretty flukey to me. And I don't think he'll have many injury free years unless he changes positions, in which case some of his value will be lost anyway.

If you look at his BABIP for '06 it's through the roof, and '07 shows more of a regression to the norm, which suggests he was unusually lucky in '06.

That could possibly be explained though because teams are learning how to play him. They move their shortstop to practically behind second base because he constantly hits it up the middle.

It would also help if Gardenhire batted him second instead of third, where his on-base abilities would be put to better use. He hit a maddening amount of meaningless 2 out singles last year.

by BenB on Oct 9, 2007 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Mauer

"If you look at his BABIP for '06 it's through the roof, and '07 shows more of a regression to the norm, which suggests he was unusually lucky in '06.

That could possibly be explained though because teams are learning how to play him. They move their shortstop to practically behind second base because he constantly hits it up the middle."

Why was the high BABIP in 2006 lucky? Skilled batters can influence their BABIP. Mauer's LD% was 24.9% and his IF/F was only 1.7% in 2006. Mauer sprays LDs and nearly never hit's infield pop ups. Even without having plus speed that's a good skill base to repeat high BABIPs.

In 2007 the LD% fell to 17.9%. But he did have a HERNIA. I'd expect a little less authority on his batted balls given that. Even with the nagging injuries his IF/F was 1% this year - lowest in MLB. Joe should be right back up around 23 or 25% LDs next year if healthy.

by McLovin on Oct 9, 2007 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Damn simultaneous posts

I like yours better than mine, McLovin.

by siddfynch on Oct 9, 2007 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BABIP

Not useful to cite unless you also cite his line drive rate. The "norm" BABIP should vary among players, since their rates of hitting line drives is also inherently different among players. A BABIP of .500 (exagerrating to make a point) is entirely sustainable if a player is hitting 45% line drives.

What was Mauer's LD rate in 2006?

And in any case, he doesn't have to hit .346 again to be successful - the OBP and SLG that year appear to be reasonable given his skill set. And those are the numbers I'm really going by when I say that he shows better hitting skils than most of his peers.

by siddfynch on Oct 9, 2007 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LD rate

25% in 2006 for Mauer.

by bluechipper on Oct 10, 2007 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

so with a 25% LD rate, nobody should cry "lucky" too much if his BABIP is up as high as .370. Granted, that's an off-the-cuff assessment because different guys have different relationships between BABIP and BA, but the default assumption for a guy that hits 25% LDs is that he ought to have an unusually high BABIP.

by siddfynch on Oct 10, 2007 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about LoDuca?

Mets rule!

by JakeFree on Oct 8, 2007 12:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

All different types of catchers

Mauer hits for a high average, McCann is a middle of the order bat, and Martin does a bit of everything. I truly don't think Mauer will remain behind the plate at his size, but that's an issue for another day. Martin is probably the most well-rounded of the three. If I'm picking for my fantasy team, I'm taking McCann. If I'm picking for a real team, I'd take Martin. If there's a man on 2nd in the bottom of the 9th and need that single to get him in, I'm taking Mauer. They're all good guys, just enjoy them. It's nice to have such a solid group of young catchers in the league.

Morrow is the Sea Diamond.

by PujolsJunkie on Oct 8, 2007 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ill take McCann

He got hit on the hand while batting and that really messed him up for awhile. Then came along other ailments, typical what a catcher goes through, but the braves couldnt afford him on the dl.

McCann is the youngest of the group, and I like his power bat.

by bravitos5122 on Oct 8, 2007 5:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

I guess this is somehow open for debate since Mauer and mccann didnt have thier greatest seasons but... these guys rank like this right?

offensively

Mauer
McCann
Martin...distant third

Defensively

Mauer
Martin
Mccann...distant third?

Martin and Mccann are great catchers...love Mccann's bat so much I think he should be moved off catcher because hes such a good hitter and not relly an asset behind the plate is he? Martin's all around game is real good and i respect his durability back there but, as a player these guys cannot hold mauer's JOCK. When he is healthy he is probably one of the top 5 talents in the game today and I'd bet 2007 is the worst season you'll see from him in a long time and it sure wasn't bad.

by casejud on Oct 8, 2007 8:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Regarding McCann's defense...

If there was any chance they'd move him off C, I'd have to think Salty wouldn't have been traded. Also, I think one of the reasons the Braves like him behind the plate is that he calls a good game, handles the pitchers well, etc. The best anecdote is that, when he came up in 2005 and caught Smoltz, Smoltz basically said, "That's my guy," and made McCann his catcher for the rest of the year. So for whatever reason, both he and Cox really like him behind the plate.

All that said, his defense was really poor this past year. He let a lot of balls get by him, his footwork was at times awful, and his arm isn't anything to write home about. And I definitely think the daily grind back there tired him out over the course of the year. And having his bat out of the lineup really hurts.

So on some level, moving him to first wouldn't be such a bad thing. But with Salty gone and Tex there, I just don't think it'll happen.

by mraver on Oct 8, 2007 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hitting

right now I would rank McCann as the better hitter. His numbers were close and he was hurt quite a bit. I think he really rebounds.

But .... I really don't think we have seen the best out of Mauer yet. I wouldn't be surprised if in 2 or 3 years Mauer starts to hit 320 with 20-25 hr's year with a 420 on base. Annually.

by pedrophile on Oct 8, 2007 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mac's D

he is not the greatest defensive catcher, but I will give him a pass this year. He has a real messed up ankle and is scheduled to have surgery this offseason. That he was even playing on it was surprising

by Godot on Oct 9, 2007 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

distant thirds?

Martin was behind only Posada and V. Martinez this year on the VORP list. He was at #35 where Mauer and McCann were at 77 and 113 respectively. Both Mauer and McCann had what I think we'd all consider sub-par years in relation to what they are capable of doing, even so, saying Martin is a distant third offensively is hogwash.

As far as defense... it's pretty over-rated for catchers. I'll take VMart over Ivan 10 times out of 10. Piazza in his prime was worth more than probably any catcher to ever play the game and his defense was virtually non-existant.

You realize that prospect lists have a time horizon of like 5-10 years, not 5-10 days, right?

by slurve on Oct 9, 2007 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

VORP

Mauer's VORP was 10th overall and McCann's 23rd in '06.

by McLovin on Oct 9, 2007 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I realize that

which is why I made sure I included "Both Mauer and McCann had what I think we'd all consider sub-par years in relation to what they are capable of doing."

Even if they would have finished #10 and #23 this year - Russell at #35 would not be a distant third...

You realize that prospect lists have a time horizon of like 5-10 years, not 5-10 days, right?

by slurve on Oct 9, 2007 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's unclear

whether Casejud's original post was referring to potential performance, or to actual.

One could make a case that the incredible, scorching years that Mauer and McCann put up in their age-23 and age-22 years make Martin a distant third in his offensive potential.

Mauer 2006 Age-23 VORP = #10
McCann 2006 Age-22 VORP = #23
Martin 2007 Age-24 VORP = #35

The case that he is third in terms of actual performance thus far is easy to make..and given the ARL of their different peaks thus far (and that Martin is still the oldest), it is not unreasonable for someone to say they feel his potential is a distant third. How distant, obviously, is a matter of taste.

by siddfynch on Oct 9, 2007 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

I don't really care about your points or your double talk. I just felt that if were going to list Mauer and McCann's 2007 VORP rankings that there 2006 rankings need to be listed as well.

by McLovin on Oct 9, 2007 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hehehe,

your user name should Mchatin or mcdickstain!!!

You realize that prospect lists have a time horizon of like 5-10 years, not 5-10 days, right?

by slurve on Oct 9, 2007 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

This is exactly why I don't care about your points. It devolves into this kind of crap over 50% of the time.

by McLovin on Oct 9, 2007 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who started the fire?

You did the devolving here, sir. I was talking baseball and you went on the offensive completely and utterly unprovoked. And people wonder why things go south. (Psst. Go look into a mirror.)

You realize that prospect lists have a time horizon of like 5-10 years, not 5-10 days, right?

by slurve on Oct 9, 2007 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Erm

I didn't see anything in McLovin's response that should have warranted a personal attack like that dude. While it might have been irritating to have been accused of double talk, you went way overboard. Mchatin would have been pretty funny actually. It's too bad you made it personal. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Oct 10, 2007 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

he made it personal as soon as he said "I don't really care about your points or your double talk" He's the one that started being abrasive, not me.

You realize that prospect lists have a time horizon of like 5-10 years, not 5-10 days, right?

by slurve on Oct 10, 2007 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Guess

It might be semantics but he criticized your points, not you. And besides, did you forget Napoleon is monitoring the board now? :) Finally, as my mama always said, Two wrongs don't make a right dude. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Oct 10, 2007 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait Til Next YEar

I think this is an interesting debate we're having regarding Mauer vs. McCann (and even more interesting that, through his play this year, Martin has pushed his way into the conversation), but I don't think it's fair to judge either Mauer or McCann based on this year. Both were tremendously banged up, and you saw it in the power drops. When you're behind the plate 5 days a week, those lingering injuries tend to stick around, if not get worse.

I'm looking forward to seeing all 3 young catchers (plus Salty) come out with big years next year. Let's talk in June 2008.

by Yakker on Oct 9, 2007 6:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good point

And to the previous poster, i didnt really meen to sell Martin short (get it?) but, its just a hunch that this is likely the very worst numbers you will ever see from Mauer or McCann for that matter. I think I may have erred in callinh Martin a distant third with the bat but, if I was picking a catcher, just for his bat, for the next 7-9 years i woulkd take mauer or mccann first, i think but Martin is pretty darned close and if he stays durable andthe others dont that make HIM the most valuable overall.

by casejud on Oct 11, 2007 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs