Jays Top 20 Prospects

by GregJP on Oct 7, 2007 10:56 PM EDT Comment 16 comments

Don't laugh, Snider + the 2007 draft class probably moves the Jays up from 28th-30th to somewhere in the 21st-23rd range. See link below for stats and analysis.

http://www.battersbox.ca/

Travis Snider, OF
Brett Cecil, LHP
Kevin Ahrens, 3B/SS
Robinzon Diaz, C
Yohermyn Chavez, OF
John Tolisano, 2B
Ricky Romero, LHP
David Purcey, LHP
Kyle Ginley, RHP
Marc Rzepczynski, LHP
Joel Collins, C
Eric Eiland, OF
J.P. Arencibia, C
Josh Banks, RHP
Justin Jackson, SS
Brian Jeroloman, C
Chi-Hung Cheng, LHP
Lee Gronkiewicz RHP
Adrian Martin, RHP
Sergio Santos, SS

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wow

i had no idea the blue jays minor league system was that bad. Whose in charge of thier player development and why hasn't he been fired?

by krgrecw on Oct 7, 2007 11:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Player Development

I don't think it has as much to do with player developments, as with just drafting and evaluating performance poorly.

The buck stops at a certain Mr. Ricchiardi. Apparently he saw both Romero and Tulowitzki play live once, and then could not be talked out of picking Romero.

Part of the issue there is that he incorrectly thought that that Russ Adams was going to be the answer at SS, and join Aaron Hill in making a very good pair of middle infielders. That just didn't happen.

Having said all of that, I think the 2007 draft was very good, and if next years goes as well the Jays will be somewhere around average in terms of quality of minor league systems.

by GregJP on Oct 7, 2007 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, it's bad

It's definitely not a good system. This year's crop does hold hope, but nothing real solid at this point.

I read this over at battersbox but didn't post, however I don't think this list is all that good. Joel Collins #11 and ahead of JP Arencibia? Diaz #4? Maybe top 10 (only because the system is so bad, especially at the top) but definitely not #4.

Why does Kevin Ahrens get a pass on his poor debut and no love for Arencibia? It's not as though Ahrens has tremendous tools that Arencibia doesn't, they should be together somewhere around #5 I think. Fuenmayor is in a similar situation and probably deserves a spot in the top 20. Gronk should not be there, so far as I'm concerned.

Just cookin' up something quickly my top 10 might look something like:

Snider
Cecil
Romero
Chavez
Tolisano
Ginley
Arencibia
Ahrens
Diaz
Santos

It's tough to put Romero #3, but I have a hard time putting Chavez or Tolisano above him with only SS behind 'em. I think Ginley deserves more credit for his K/9 and K/BB numbers and think he could take a large step forward next year. I'm not really a Diaz, Santos, or Purcey fan, but I think they're ahead of the rookie ball guys at this point. Purcey would probably be #11 I guess.

by GoJays7 on Oct 7, 2007 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Catcher

Seems to be a difference of opinion about how all of these catching prospects will shake out.

Hopefully at least one of them will develop and be an above average regular for the Jays.

by GregJP on Oct 7, 2007 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Blue Jay Catchers

I think Arencibia will do just that, so long as he can stay at the position (which I'm optimistic he can).

I don't see how Collins or Diaz can be rated ahead of Arencibia. Diaz has no pop and while he doesn't strike out he doesn't walk a ton either. If FirstInning.com is to be believed, he had a GB% of 60% this year (58% last year). He's also the least likely to stay at catcher (I presume, though I really haven't heard too much about Collins' D). On to Collins, in an incredibly small sample size he showed great pop as a 21 year old in the GCL after being picked in the 10th round. Arencibia hit alright (and got better as the year went on, hitting 308/357/440 in August) and has a much longer positive track record as a hitter. While the power wasn't as present this year as could be hoped for, his power is generally considered to be good and I'm not particularly worried.

To have either Collins or Diaz above Arencibia at this point seems like a glaring error to me.

by GoJays7 on Oct 8, 2007 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

justin jackson

I like him a whole lot better than that, despite his mediocre debut in the GCL. Seriously, I think the guy is going to be a stud, love his tools. He needs to hit the weight room for sure, but so do most youngsters.

by doublestix on Oct 7, 2007 11:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jackson

I totally agree with you. I would have him somewhere in the 8-10 range for sure.

I realize he didn't hit a lick, but he apparently plays good defense, drew some walks, and is even a threat to steal some bases.

A project for sure, but his upside clearly makes him top 10 in this system.

by GregJP on Oct 7, 2007 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

why oh why

romero over tulo was dumb then and ridiculously dumb now! smacking him in at SS would look so sweet for the jays......but hey, then we would have missed out on the royce clayton experiment! who knows what is in store for next year!

i'm so tired of JP's "5 year plan" and arrogance....he should have been fired long ago

by Wheelhouse on Oct 7, 2007 11:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lind

Not a prospect any more, but I thought I would throw Adam Lind into the discussion.

I have really mixed feelings about him. If he could be a bit more selective, he could end up a very useful player. On the other hand, some guys never get over that hump at the major league level.

Hopefully how well he hit the last week will give him more confidence going into spring training next year.

I just wish he had a set position with some guarantee of playing time to see if he's progressed beyond what he was like during his early 2007 stint.

I'd like to see him platoon with Johnson in LF, but I don't really see that happening at this point.

by GregJP on Oct 8, 2007 12:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No Fuenmayor?

I know he had a bad year, but I would think he at least rates a spot on the Top 20 for this club. I would think Ryan Patterson, too.

Also, Thigpen is still a 'prospect' according to BA's definition.

by rhd on Oct 8, 2007 8:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thigpen

Thigpen wasn't included because of the number of days he's spent on the major league roster.

Ryan Patterson
Balbino Fuenmayor

by GregJP on Oct 8, 2007 8:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't really like these rankings

I'll just do one for Bluebird Banter by the end of the week.

I think I recall GregJP bashing me slightly for talking up Ricky Romero on Battersbox.

As for Collins I think he is up there due to being Canadian. He did dominate but as an older player in the GCL. Arencibia played in Auburn at least. Definitely Patterson deserves to be in the top 20 as he basically repeated his AA numbers from last year. He also got off to a poor start in the season and finished off rather strong to get his numbers at least respectable.

Go Jays!!!!

Allan's World

Blue bird Banter

by achengy on Oct 8, 2007 10:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bashing

I don't think I really bashed you. :-)

You just made it seem like Romero was on track to be a 2/3 starter, and I just don't think that's very realistic at this point.

I don't think he would make a top 200 prospects list at this point.

by GregJP on Oct 8, 2007 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

saw him pitch

in college and he didn't wow me. . .saw lincecum the same year ( i think, and he had the wow factor, even ian kennedy impressed me more, and his senior year wasn't really spectacular)

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 9, 2007 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well you did call me a homer

or imply that I was which was enough to slightly irritate me.

Romero probably won't do well in the rankings but it's still too early to give up on him from a Blue Jays perspective. He does rank higher then most Jays prospects though in comparison to guys like Purcey who I've given up on.

It's still possible for Romero to become a 2/3 but it is quite bleak. If he can put it together this fall and '08 he'll be back on people's radar. -This just me being optimistic!

Go Jays!!!!

Allan's World

Blue bird Banter

by achengy on Oct 9, 2007 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Collins.

Collins is up there because he was one of the top defensive catchers in college, he threw out something like 50%+ of attempted base-stealers. Combine defense + a super strong start hitting and you get a prospect jump way higher than he should. I say that because Collins' hitting cooled big time and he did dominate a league full of teenagers. IMO it was pretty ridiculous that he was ranked ahead of Arencibia, no matter what way you look at it. Collins is a sleeper-prospect to watch (same school as Adam Lind) but I knew he was going to get overhyped.

by metafour on Oct 10, 2007 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs