Jeremy Guthrie (Guts) - 2008
by pedrophile on Oct 6, 2007 8:58 PM EDT
32 comments
what will it bring?
First let's look at 2007 for him.
IP 175.1
Hits 165
HR 23
BB 47
K's 123
For his LH/RH splits the numbers are almost identical except LH hit 87 Slugging points higher. This is quite solid splits.
Now if you look month by month you can see April was a bad month for him. But digging deeper you will see that was mostly his relief appearances.
The next thing you will see is that in spite of having a solid July his hit rate went from spectacular to average. This decline continued into an awful August. He was eventually shut down to come back for a start in September.
Month ERA IP H HR BB SO AVG
April 5.87 15.1 19 11 10 1 5 12 .311
May 1.78 35.1 23 8 7 3 5 20 .192
June 1.69 37.1 24 8 7 2 5 30 .182
July 3.93 36.2 32 17 16 6 15 26 .235
August 6.23 34.2 46 26 24 11 10 22 .313
Sept 4.50 16.0 21 8 8 0 7 13 .318
His injury was the oblique so need to worry. But it was the final telling point in him having nothing left in the tank.
First you could see it in the hit numbers. More importantly you could see it in his velocity. From mid nineties then to more often in the low nineties. And finally in the oblique injury.
In the past three years he was only going about 130 IP so getting tired late in the year is to be expected.
Now let's look at the further past:
He was good at Stanford and a high selection. He tore it up in AA before being promoted to Buffalo. Then he stunk. Terribly. His stuff was still excellent but he couldn't seem to finish hitters.
I've also heard rumours that Cleveland was trying to change his pitching mechanics and he wanted nothing to do with that. From some of his most recent comments I think it was equally a lack of confidence on Jeremy's part that he couldn't handle adversity. ie. him stating how much Mazzone has helped him gain confidence in himself.
The future:
I have heard many superlatives about his stuff. I do like his fastball and earlier in the season it was a plus pitch. His other offerings I would call solid or slightly above. But when his fastball velocity is down he was hittable and gave up a ton of homers. I think this might be because he likes to work up in the zone. he gets many k's from his fastball that way. McGowan could stand to learn from this.
I think he will be a solid #3 pitcher next year and might even be a #2 if he can continue to keep the HR's down. I am worried about the 6HR in July and 11HR in August. All pitchers get tired but you can't get that torched when you are tired.
I could see Guthrie being better than Carmona or McGowan for the next year or so. I'm just not so sure Guthrie will have a very long career. His offspeed stuff is solid but definitely needs that fastball as his bread and butter
Maybe 5 to 6 solid seasons with 1 or 2 of them being stellar. And then a quick flame-out. I'd like to see more from him but that's my prediction.
for some video check out the mlb page for him
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=425386
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Good report
by casejud on Oct 7, 2007 1:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Carmona
2004 163
2005 173
2006 102.1
2007 224 and counting
While last year his innings were low it wouldn't be fair to say he doubled his IP. 173 were his highest to date. Yankees will be gone and Fausto will start game 2. Probably 2 more starts unless they make the WS. So I'd guess about 15 IP.
Doesn't 240 IP after a year of 102 and a previous high of 173 concern you? It does me.
I don't consider him past the injury nexus. The true injury nexus is the first few years as a pitcher scales the pitch counts and inning counts and is able to remain healthy.
One more thing - pitch counts:
Games over 100 pitches:
Carmona 19 (including the last 7 in a row)
Guthrie 9
McGowan 16
I've included McGowan because it's generally accepted that Toronto abuses it's pitchers.
So you can see that Carmona has been used much heavier than Guthrie it's not even close. He's even been used heavier than McGowan who talked about needing to work more on conditioning. Carmona can be one of those guys that it doesn't affect. But I do have my concerns.
by pedrophile on Oct 7, 2007 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sometimes statheads cannot see
by sdtribefan on Oct 7, 2007 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hmmm
Ask IndiansFan! what I think of Carmona. I think you'll find I've been his biggest fan on this site for years. And yes, I've watched both.
If you disagree with my analysis then cool. But you are talking out of your ass right now. Not so cool.
by pedrophile on Oct 7, 2007 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thoughts on Carmona!
sdtribefan - pedrophile is a pretty big fan of Carmona's and has given him praise in the past, even saying something to the effect (correct me if I'm wrong) that Carmona could probably remain pretty effective even if his offspeed stuff doesn't improve much beyond where it is right now because his sinker is THAT good.
pedrophile - I can see your argument for Guthrie and your concerns for Carmona, but a few points:
1. From what I have read and heard just recently (including John's analysis,) it seems Carmona's changeup has really come along quite nicely and might even be considered, if not a plus pitch, certainly an above-average pitch. John's analysis also seems to suggest that Carmona's slider is also a good pitch, so as you suggested in an earlier thread, if Carmona continues to improve that offspeed stuff, he could have more seasons like the one he's having this year, and it seems his offspeed stuff continues to get better.
That 3-pitch arsenal is arguably the main reason why he dominated the Yankee lineup in Game 2; outside of one hanging slider to Cabrera (and I don't know how he kept that ball fair, as that slider looked to be off the plate inside,) Carmona had virtually no-hit stuff - that's why the Yankees managed just 3 hits off of him, one of which was an infield single. Granted, his best pitch is his plus-plus sinker, but his other pitches are good enough where he can get teams out on his changeup and slider as well. Of course, both of those pitches are more effective because of his outstanding sinker, but his K rate has gone up during the season because of the progression he has made with his offspeed stuff. He'll get some strikeouts with the downward action on his sinker, but he's also gotten some of his strikeouts on changeups and sliders.
2. Regarding Carmona's workload, yes, it's a bit of a concern that Carmona's workload has increased by that amount this year, but he did throw 173.2 IP just two years ago, so the increase isn't quite as dramatic as it would be for a pitcher who had NEVER thrown that many IP before and only threw 102.1 IP as his previous high watermark. Plus, the Indians are in the postseason, which will of course increase his workload since Carmona has emerged as one of the frontline starters for the Indians. Most teams would not shut down a young starting pitcher who has emerged to be one of your better starting pitchers, even if they have gone over the recommended 10% increased workload from their previous high.
Like I said, it's a concern, and hopefully, Carmona's health will not be adversely affected by the high workload in 2007, but as mentioned, Carmona has not had any arm problems, plus is supposedly out of the injury nexus (usually considered 18-22 YO, I believe - Carmona turns 24 in December.) Another benefit is that Carmona has not had that many high-stress IP, nor that many high-pitch counts, this season (most of the ones over 100 were between 100-105, with only 3 over 110 and 1 over 120) and some say that it's not so much the number of pitches or IP, but rather, how many of those pitches and IP are high-stress. I think the Indians have done as good a job as they can in keeping Carmona's number of pitches and IP in high-stress situations to a minimum. They also juggled the rotation at the end of the season to give him some extra time off (giving him 8 days off, making his great command in Game 2 that much more impressive.)
3. Regarding Guthrie, I always thought he had solid stuff, as did the Indians, but the one thing with him was, his stuff never seemed to be able to translate into results, especially at the ML level, and for a while, even at the AAA level. From what I seen and heard, his fastball had good velocity (95-96,) but was too straight, so he had to be very pinpoint with it, and preferably had his other stuff set it up. And while his other stuff was solid, I'm not sure any of his offspeed stuff were considered plus pitches; above-average, perhaps, but not plus from what I recall. For whatever reason, he could never consistently perform at the level expected with the Indians.
In Guthrie's defense, the Indians didn't know whether he would fit better in the rotation or in the bullpen, and mostly gave him a relief role at the ML level (I think he had a spot start or September start with them in 2006, I think, but didn't fare all that well - something like 4 BB and 6-8 H in 4.2 IP if I remember correctly.)
The Indians tried working with him, but just couldn't get him to figure it out; it seems Leo Mazzone did, though perhaps the move away from Cleveland and the expectations from the large contract he and Boras signed might have helped as well.
Guthrie pitched well with Baltimore for the most part, but did falter in the second half - his H rate, BB rate, and HR rate all increased, while his K rate decreased. Whether that was due to the oblique injury or not, I'm not sure. And, was his oblique injury caused by something in his mechanics or just a fluke occurrence? That's why I think Guthrie's health could be more of a question than Carmona's over the next few years - can Guthrie remain healthy and effective over a full ML season? In addition, Guthrie has already reached the age where he is in his prime (turns 29 in April,) so I don't know how much better he's going to get, and could even backtrack a bit, especially if he starts to lose velocity on his fastball over the next few years.
As mentioned, Carmona turns 24 in December, so he's still around 4 years away from the prime of his career, and is already flourishing, so I think Carmona could continue to maintain a high level like he has shown for several years if he remains healthy.
Therefore, right now, I don't see Guthrie being better than Carmona over the next few years - Carmona's fastball has at least equal velocity, if not slightly higher, and has better movement on it, making it a plus-plus pitch; Guthrie's, at best, is a plus pitch, and might only be an above-average pitch because it doesn't have much movement. As well, I think Carmona's offspeed stuff is equal or better than Guthrie's - it seems Carmona's changeup is above-average to plus, while his slider is average to above-average, giving Carmona a solid to very good 3-pitch arsenal. Guthrie's offspeed stuff is average to slightly above-average, with no real plus pitch in his offspeed arsenal to my knowledge. In addition, Carmona is younger and has a better track record when it comes to health, so of the two, I'd expect Carmona to be the better pitcher over the next few to several years.
In my opinion, Guthrie, at best, might be close to Carmona for a few years, but not likely better than him, and might not even be that close to Carmona, as Carmona's ceiling would appear to be more of a #1, or at the very least, a very strong #2, while Guthrie, at best, might be more of a fringe #1, solid #2, good to very good #3.
Just my 2 cents - no offense.
Overall though, your analysis of Guthrie is interesting and accurate, outside of his being better than Carmona, and possibly McGowan as well, if McGowan continues to improve his offspeed stuff and show the consistency he showed this year. I think both he and Carmona's overall arsenals are better than Guthrie's by at least 1-2 notches, which is why their ceilings are more as dominant frontline starters, whereas Guthrie's is more of a borderline frontline starter, solid to very solid middle-of-the-rotation starter.
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Oct 8, 2007 4:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hi IndiansFan!
I'll try to reply directly to your post.
- I agree that Carmona is a top pitcher and has filthy stuff.
- His offspeed stuff are only considered good while his power sinker is extremely nasty. Any reliable offspeed pitch that can be thrown for strikes will be almost a plus pitch because it makes the hitter think twice about cheating on the fastball. If the pitcher loses anything on the fastball those pitches become weak. Hence why I think Guthrie will only have a few years of effectiveness. Long term I worry much more about him wear & tear. Next year wise I worry about him less than Carmona.
- Pitching 173 innings, then much less, then 240 innings is a huge jump IMO. If he had many 125 pitch games then I'd be putting a big alert up. But he hasn't. The Indians have been good with him. But if they were out of it you can bet he would have sat the last week or two. Of course they are going to ride him. How many chances do you have to win the world series?
4) Injury nexus. That age grouping is more of a guideline. I believe it's there for 2 major reasons.
a) The innings progression. Many pitchers have problems when the innings progress from 130 to 160 to 190 to 220, etc. When done poorly it can be disastrous. Minnesota is a great example of how to do it IMO.
b) Hmmm, I have no title for this one. It's the if you are going to get hurt we'll see it early thing. Nothing to do with age. Some guys just break down a lot. Mechanics, health, luck, whatever.
But when a pitcher is very healthy for his first 4 or 5 years he is probably going to be much healthier over his career than someone that has many injuries in his first years. Nothing complicated. Just the odds.
anyways .... Again, I only stated that I "could see" Guthrie being better for a couple years but I couldn't see his career being better.
Most people should read that as meaning Carmona is a better pitcher, will have a better career, but for a year or two Guthrie may be better. Heck, even without injuries look at Guthries numbers for the first three months. And while he was hurt from being tired - he started as a reliever so it's expected this happened. It's not really an indication of health issues or stamina.
by pedrophile on Oct 8, 2007 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the save try indiansfan,
To answer pedrophile's question about the number of times I have seen Carmona pitch, it would be about 20 times live in the minors and majors and probably another 100 times electronically. I have also seen Guthrie, live and electronically, about 30-35 times. There really is no viable comparison between the two and using selective statistics to try and justify an evaluation of Guthrie's superiority does not make one.
pedro, I may talk out of my ass but I find it superior to being an ass.
by sdtribefan on Oct 8, 2007 6:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for nothing
Is it really that far-fetched to think that Guthrie could outperform Carmona over the next year or so? You're sure that Carmona's high workload will have absolutely no impact next year? I understand you're looking at the world through Tribe-colored glasses, which is fine. But your contribution to the dialogue has thus far been zero.
by e 6 on Oct 8, 2007 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
huh?
Pedrophile has nothing to suggest why Guthrie could be better than Carmona next year other than a flimsy premise regarding possible effects of Carmona's 2007 workload. Well, who just pitched 9 fantastic innings against the Yanks and finished strong (9-4, 2.26 era) in the 2nd half - Carmona. Who faded miserably and gave up 18 homers in his last 50IP - Guthrie.
by McLovin on Oct 8, 2007 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This has nothing to do with my support
Do not put words into my mouth. I made no personal attack on pedro. I attacked the opinion, conclusions and the methodology to arrive at both, not the person. In a forum such as this, I felt they were "fair game". I initiated no profanity. If you do not like the adjectives, perhaps I could have used "ill-founded" or "absurd" but the effect is the same.
As to far-fetched, it is more likely than pigs growing wings and being called butterflys. Let's just say that posters will make some outrageous comments to support a point of view. They prefer to inspire dialogue based on a limited field of statistics. Since I cannot get "statodrivel" out of politics, I would like it recognized for what it is in baseball forums. I will not apologize for that.
by sdtribefan on Oct 8, 2007 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
getting legalistic
" I made no personal attack on pedro. I attacked the opinion, conclusions and the methodology to arrive at both, not the person."
lets look back at your post:
"Sometimes statheads cannot see the forest for the trees."
In this sentence, you clearly make a statement ABOUT pedrophile -- you call him a stathead.
"You are entitled to an opinion but don't say stupid things and try to use statodrivel to try and justify it."
In this sentence, you call his opinion "stupid" and suggest it's stupid BECAUSE it comes from the type of analysis you claim "statheads" like him make.
Your claim that you only attacked an opinion and not a person is both flimsy in ALL circumstances, but it's pretty patently false in this one.
-----------------
Also, though I would agree with you that Carmona is probably going to be better than Guthrie, I disagree with:
- your analysis of pedrophile, who is in fact NOT a "stathead"
- your analysis, period (since you don't provide any)
- your analysis of what it was that pedrophile said (you kind of overreacted because he made a suggestion about your favorite team -- talk about missing the forest for a tree)
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 8, 2007 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
another voice heard from
by sdtribefan on Oct 9, 2007 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the real question...
I am not making "faulty analysis" of your arguments, because, up until today, you hadn't made any arguments at all.
Finally, in THIS post, you squeeze out a line about "130 IP" and "You figure it out!"
Well, why don't you tell me what your point is. Or better yet, tell pedrophile what your point is.
pedrophile has been kind enough to make a cogent argument. You can't really claim not to have the time to write a logical argument out, since you've spent plenty of time blowing out empty posts like this one.
-------------------------------
"When you predicate your conclusions on the accuracy of numbers and not upon direct observation, as I do, they better be right."
Dude. What part of this don't you get? pedrophile has watched both pitchers in question frequently. So get off your high horse about your "direct observation." I realize it's comforting for you to point fingers and label something you don't like as "generated by some stathead who's never seen the game," but you still have to base these accusations on reality, right?
Right?
I guess you think not.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 9, 2007 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Pedro wants to know, he can ask
by sdtribefan on Oct 9, 2007 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not really a "belief"....
i think "excuse" is the proper word here.
i would be happy to hear an explanation of your beliefs on the issue. but i am not a mind-reader. nor are you. so don't pretend to tell me what pedrophile and indiansfan do or don't know right now.
sorry to be so harsh, but i'm a strong believer in making a man express himself rather than blowing hot air and waving his hands in place of true examination and justification.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 9, 2007 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually...
- Guthrie is the one who has had arm trouble NO?
- A starting pitcher should be expected to go 100 pitchs almost EVERY start shouldnt he? thats not any kind of barometer
One other thing is that surviving a 163Ip and 173IP is already holdong up to a higher workload than many kids on the far.
Reasons for concearn...yes but, Carmona hasnt been hurt and he is more likely to stay healthy and effective than Guthrie. This reminds me of the paranoia surrounding Lincecums health meanwhile, he's YET to have even a sore arm. Quit worrying and enjoy the ride man! Carmona aint throwing too many pitches and hes GREAT.
by casejud on Oct 8, 2007 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my comments
Hi IndiansFan, how are you doing?
Ok, to the topic at hand:
{I could see Guthrie being better than Carmona or McGowan for the next year or so. I'm just not so sure Guthrie will have a very long career. His offspeed stuff is solid but definitely needs that fastball as his bread and butter}
This is what I said. It wasn't stat drivel. And I have seen both pitch extensively. I've followed both in the minors and majors. I only asked you how many times you watched them pitch in sarcasm - only because you asked if I had ever seen them pitch (IMO implying I hadn't).
Now - back to the point.
I NEVER said Guthrie is a better pitcher than Carmona. I said "I could see Guthrie being better than Carmona or McGowan for the next year or so.".
Then to go on I continued saying even if he happened to be better it would be short lived.
I'm saying there is a possibility he will be better for a short time. And for about 4 months this year he was. So is it preposterous to think it's possible he MIGHT be better for a year or two?
I think it's preposterous to say it's not possible.
I think it's beyond preposterous to say someone is uttering nonsense (or whatever way you call it) to even suggest someone might be better than Carmona for a short time.
More? I remember when everyone said how great Jaret Wright was and that he needed to improve his offspeed but even if he didn't he'd be a stud.
I remember people saying about how the high pitch counts didn't bother him because after all he was pitching 98 darts late in the post season.
We all know where that went.
Not to say that is where Carmona is going. But just because Carmona is doing well now doesn't mean the workload isn't hurting him. I'd be a little worried if I was an Indians fan.
by pedrophile on Oct 8, 2007 7:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re: wear & tear
Guthrie was the one hurt. It wasn't his arm. It was his oblique. And I am concerned. But this did prevent him from putting more stress on the arm which is the real worry. And Guthrie realizes he must be in better shape for next season. So it may be a blessing in disguise. But it definitely is a concern.
And I do recognize it may be Guthrie that may have problems with this. That is why when I phrased it I said "I could see" meaning "It is possible".
Re: Carmona and wear & tear
Think of Mark Prior. When he finally had serious injury problems it wasn't instantaneous. It was caused by wear & tear both in College and with good old Dusty. But while that damage was being done Prior was unbelievable.
The damage being done to arm/shoulder/elbow doesn't show right away in many/most cases. This damage builds until some breaking point. Because Carmona is crazy successful now doesn't mean he isn't breaking it down. Of course it doesn't mean he is doing damage either.
Guthrie had a muscle thing. It's good because this caught a problem before it would have been more of an elbow or shoulder problem.
I hope Carmona is healthy. I'm not stating he is some huge injury risk.
But I do think anytime a pitcher goes from:
160IP
170IP
130IP
240IP
{not sure of the numbers, they are from memory}
There SHOULD be serious concerns about the next year being a bit of a letdown. At the least.
by pedrophile on Oct 8, 2007 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thoughts on Carmona!
Good to talk with you again as well! :-)
Regarding Guthrie, I don't think it's out of the question for him to be better than Carmona for a year or two, though I think the chances are less than 50/50, say maybe 20-30% chance. Guthrie did do well in the early part of 2007, well enough where some Indians' fans, including some over at LGT, were wondering why we couldn't get him to pitch like that and why we essentially gave him away for nothing.
However, that dropoff in the second half is a bit concerning, and I wonder, how long did he have the oblique injury? Is that what caused the dropoff or did hitters pick up something with him that they hadn't figured out earlier in the season? That's why I'm not sure if Guthrie's great first half is something he can duplicate again over the next few seasons or if the expectations should be lowered a bit, as he was pitching more like a frontline starter during that hot streak. Whether he becomes more of a borderline frontline starter or more a very good middle-of-the-rotation starter, only time will tell and I think the main question Guthrie has to answer - can he duplicate his first half again over a full season? It will be interesting to see.
As for Carmona, I do have some concerns regarding the jump in IP, as do several Tribe fans over at LGT. Hopefully, the fact that Carmona's delivery is considered clean and smooth and the fact that he's on the young side, but not THAT young (23-24,) will hopefully allow him to remain healthy.
That's a good point about Prior, and certainly, Carmona, like any other pitcher, is not immune from injury, but hopefully, the fact that Carmona hasn't been overextended like Prior seemed to be under Dusty Baker (especially in terms of pitch counts per start, since Baker doesn't seem to put much stock in pitch counts, from what I have heard and read,) will also increase the chances that Carmona won't suffer the same fate that Prior did.
Also, Prior threw over 100 IP at the ML level (plus over 50 in the Minors) at age 21 (his first pro. season) in 2002 and over 200 IP at the ML level (and 23.1 postseason IP) at age 22 in 2003 when the Cubs went to the NLCS; at age 21 (his fourth pro. season) in 2005, Carmona was pitching 173.2 IP at AA and AAA, mostly as a starter, while at age 22 in 2006, Carmona was between AAA and the MLs, mostly in a relief role, only pitching 102.1 IP.
Granted, that's a concern because it was a dropoff from the 173.2 IP he pitched in 2005, 95% of those innings as a starter, but I'm suspecting that part of the reason the Indians brought him up as a reliever was to help get his feet wet and get him acclimated to pitching in the MLs without the pressure of starting and throwing all those IPs. Of course, the Indians also thought Carmona could do well in the bullpen and they needed another reliable reliever in the 2006 bullpen, but I suspect they also thought it would be a good way to introduce Carmona to the Majors as well in a less-pressurized role, especially since the Indians were just about out of the running for the postseason by that time in 2006. Prior, on the other hand, was seen as a starter all the way, didn't spend much time down in the Minors, and was thrown right into the ML starting fire at age 21 in 2002, which was to be expected since he pitched so well and appeared ready at that age, but in some ways, that quick progression to the Majors and Dusty's managing of him, especially in terms of pitch counts, may have led to his injuries and TJ surgery.
Hopefully, Carmona won't suffer the same fate, as he's been handled a bit differently than Prior has, but the IP increase is certainly a concern, as no pitcher, even with clean mechanics, is immune from injury, including to their arms and shoulders.
Hopefully, Carmona will remain healthy as he has been fun to watch during this past season, including in his maturation from a new entree into the rotation to becoming a very strong frontline starter.
Just my 2 cents.
Again, good to talk with you pedrophile! :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Oct 9, 2007 2:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Prior
I'm not really trying to compare him to Prior. And you hit the nail on the head with Prior about games where he would have 125 pitches and more. And of course even worse in college.
My real point being that even while the damage is being done a pitcher can look fantastic.
Carmona is looking fantastic now. Damage, or wear & tear, could be happening now. We just can't tell.
IMO it probably isn't damage because of the controlled pitch counts. But I definitely think this very long season will affect next year.
re: Guthrie. I believe his numbers faded as he tired. His fastball faded and he pitches up, this leads to the higher HR's. The oblique was just a result of him fading and being very tired. Just my opinion though.
by pedrophile on Oct 9, 2007 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thoughts about Carmona & Guthrie!
Good point - who would have thought that Prior was going to go down with an injury shortly after having that great 2003 season? Of course, the way Dusty managed him, especially with the pitch counts, might have caused some people to question and wonder whether it would hurt Prior, and unfortunately, it seems it did (I say "seems" only because I guess there is no real way to say for sure that the consistently high pitch counts were the reason Prior became injured, but many probably suspect it was a major reason for his injury, as it likely was with Wood's as well; plus, Prior's mechanics were always considered cleaner than Wood's, making it even more likely that Dusty's managing of Prior was the main reason Prior became injured.)
As for Carmona, one other thing to keep in mind is that he also pitched winter ball last year in an effort to get him acclimated to starting again - I don't recall how many innings he had (maybe around 50 IP or so - not sure,) but I strongly suspect he won't be pitching winter ball this year, so that could help him get some additional rest.
It will be interesting to see how Carmona responds next year, both in terms of being an established ML starter from the beginning of the season and how the increased workload in 2007 will affect him in 2008. Hopefully, it won't affect him negatively. It will also be interesting to see if teams try to make further adjustments on Carmona, though I suspect most teams did see him more than once in 2007, and few if any hit him better the second time they seen him, so if Carmona's stuff remains where it is at or gets better (moreso in terms of how he uses it and improving his offspeed stuff some more, not in terms of him gaining more velocity on the fastball,) I suspect hitters probably won't hit him that much better than they did this year, even if they do have time to study video of him this offseason.
As for Guthrie, as you mentioned in another post, I agree that a high fastball pitcher does need to have good command in order to avoid getting hit hard. I think the fact that Guthrie's fastball has never had late movement, plus the fact he was losing velocity as the season went along, made him more hittable. Plus, with the Indians, he always seemed to not be able to put that fastball exactly where he wanted it consistently - perhaps he did a better job of that with the Orioles, but I know he couldn't consistently put the fastball where he wanted to while he was in Cleveland, which certainly prevented him from ever attaining consistent success at the ML level, which likely hurt his confidence, as you mentioned.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Oct 9, 2007 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
more thoughts
I wouldn't really count the winter innings Carmona pitched. I don't think they put much extra wear and tear and don't really prepare a pitcher for the season either.
As far as wear & tear - it's two things to watch out for. One is the crazy pitch counts like Prior endured. The other is the long season. That is why I wouldn't consider Carmona any more or less of an injury threat because of the winter ball.
I don't often hear of pitchers being hurt by pitching 220 innings then another 50 in the winter. But we often see pitchers that are in the World Series, and dominating, having worse seasons the next year.
As far as Carmona seeing teams many times - I wouldn't really worry about that too much. He's been great against the Yankees for 3 games I think and they are a predominantly LH team so if anyone they should have torched him.
Carmona's sinker is so good right now he'll be very good or an ace.
I do worry about the innings pitch though.
Guthrie had even less experience with innings than Carmona. But his season was cut much shorter and about 30 of his innings were a month after a break. He is a serious risk of breaking down again unless he takes his offseason training seriously. I expect he will.
I'm not as worried as others about hitters adjusting to Guthrie. He pitched ok when back. And I expect he'll have a good year next year.
btw - the high fastball doesn't really have to be located better. Just that when you miss down you pay big. I think that's why Carmona won't pitch up because of the downward movement. If Carmona could throw a flat fastball it would be an excellent K pitch for him.
by pedrophile on Oct 10, 2007 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree
You said: "Carmona's sinker is so good right now he'll be very good or an ace."
Now, obviously Carmona's sinker is a terrific pitch. However, and I think you probably meant to say this but it needs to be explicit, what IMO will make Carmona an ace (what a luxury for Cleveland, as they already have, and I believe will soon resign, their actual ace Sabathia), are his other pitches. We saw this as the season progressed, and he went from throwing 85% sinkers to a better blend of off-speed stuff. The Ks went up, he still kept the GB ratios exceptionally high, and that is what he needs to continue to do develop into a frontline SP.
(It's an interesting thought about the high fastball, but I agree the natural late break he gets on his pitches could make it tough to pitch up there successfully.)
by Yakker on Oct 10, 2007 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree. me too, lol.
The fact he is mixing in his off-speed better has made a significant difference. Granted.
But change his sinker from what it is and lose 3-4mph and lose a little (not much) of his movement and what do you have? A nice #3 pitcher. That's it.
That wicked sinker sets everything up.
by pedrophile on Oct 10, 2007 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guts
I expect big things from both Guts and Carmona next year, and find the discussion about who's going to be better a little tiresome, to be honest (but that could just be the ad hominem attacks).
Anyway, if I had to pick just one of the two for the next 3 years, I'd take Carmona. The pitch counts are absolutely a concern, but I'd take Carmona because, honestly, I don't think we've even seen his best yet, as frightening a thought as that is.
by Yakker on Oct 9, 2007 6:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
reply
It did affect Guthrie's velocity though. He could still touch those velocities, just not as frequent.
Losing some velocity and a lot of control for a high fastball pitcher is deadly.
Yeah, I'd take Carmona over Guthrie right now. I think he will be better over the 3 year stretch. But I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Guthrie was better. I would be surprised if Guthrie had a better career (unless it was due to injury).
by pedrophile on Oct 9, 2007 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
To be honest, if in October 2010 you and I do a retro (God willing) on Carmona v. Guts from 2008-2010, I would be very surprised if Guts was better. But that's less about Guts and more about what I think Carmona's capable of.
BTW, I like these profiles you're doing, and would like to suggest another, if you're interested, although I think you're more of an AL guy (I'd take on to do it myself but the next few weeks are tight for me): Ian Snell, IMO the most underrated young pitcher in the NL.
by Yakker on Oct 9, 2007 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I couldn't really comment on Snell
From what I have seen:
94-97 fastball without much movement. Uses it on the inside for lefties for k's, high for righties. Of course it doesn't always sit in that range but also sits in low 90's.
High 80's slider that has mostly down movement. Didn't see that much lateral movement. Solid pitch.
Low 80's change.
He can be either very good or very bad.
If you look at the stats you can see that in the bad months his hit rate and HR rate skyrocket. He has serious HR problems. While he only allowed low 20's HR's he allows a ton of HR's when he's not on. And many hits - showing it's not about luck or lack thereof.
What I'd like to know is if he is doing anything fundamentally different in those months. This is where you need someone who saw him most of his starts and gets a feel of the month by month progression.
I wouldn't mind writing up a report on him, WITH help. If you have seen him extensively I'd like to hear your thoughts and observations.
by pedrophile on Oct 11, 2007 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sdtribefan
- You mention 130IP. The only place I mention this is with regards to Guthrie. Not Carmona. And I mention Guthrie tiring and then getting hurt with his oblique.
- When you predicate your conclusions on the accuracy of numbers and not upon direct observation, as I do, they better be right.
- Why have you kept replying to others and yet haven't responded to my further comments?
- This report is not about Carmona. I am not saying Guthrie is better than him or will be. I merely pointed out one possibility is he "could" be better for a brief period. My money is on Carmona, I like him better. But I wouldn't be shocked if Jeremy was better for a few years.
I know you read this site. And you would know that I write as much or more about Carmona than anyone including IndiansFan, if that's possible.
So the only way you could construe this as negative against Carmona is if you are blindly looking for a fight.
by pedrophile on Oct 9, 2007 7:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was not aware there was anything unanswered
But the biggest difference is in the way they pitch which is something you only learn from watching them pitch. Carmona's mechanics and location are far superior to Guthrie and Guthrie is, from all appearances, slow to learn. He had two good months but as the season wore on, word got out that his high tailing fastball, which is a nasty pitch, was not thrown for strikes much of the time. As hitters laid off that pitch and made him use his fairly ordinary secondary pitches, his stats declined. Guthrie really reminds of another former Cleveland pitcher whose mechanics caused the Tribe to let him go, Fernando Cabrera. Sometimes you have to rely on direct observation. Stats just don't cut it entirely, especially when they are not complete.
Now, I have said my last word on the subject since I am heading to the 3rd Ave sports bar for a beer to commiserate with my Yankee friends who need cheering up.
by sdtribefan on Oct 9, 2007 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
130 IP
The whole point about too many innings is more the consecutive wear and tear. No-one is worried about a pitcher that pitches 450 innings over a 3 year period. We would be worried if he pitched 260 in one season however. It's the large amount of innings in a season.
Pitching after a month or two of rest is like starting another season and can't be compared to someone pitching those innings in-season. Totally different beast.
Yeah I know they are different pitchers. I've seen them as well. No need to constantly imply I haven't.
But the unanswered thing was more to do with all your comments when I've never implied Guthrie was better. Your whole argument and comments were against something I never said.
by pedrophile on Oct 10, 2007 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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