BA 2007 Minor League All-Stars

by Wheelhouse on Oct 6, 2007 1:07 PM EDT Comment 20 comments

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/features/264994.html

FIRST TEAM
C Geovany Soto, Iowa (Cubs)
1B Steven Pearce, Lynch./Alt./Ind. (Pirates)
2B Matt Antonelli, L.E./S. Antonio (Padres)
3B Evan Longoria, Mont./Durham (Devil Rays)
SS Jed Lowrie, Portland/Pawtucket (Red Sox)
OF Jay Bruce, Sara./Chat./Louisville (Reds)
OF Colby Rasmus, Springfield (Cardinals)
OF Justin Upton, Visalia/Mobile (Diamondbacks)
DH Travis Snider, Lansing (Blue Jays)

SP Clay Buchholz, Port./Pawtucket (Red Sox)
SP Ian Kennedy, Tam./Trenton/SWB (Yankees)
SP Joba Chamberlain, Tam./Tren./SWB (Yankees)
SP James McDonald, I.E./Jacksonville (Dodgers)
RP Edwar Ramirez, Trenton/SWB (Yankees)

SECOND TEAM
C Taylor Teagarden, Baker./Frisco (Rangers)
1B Jordan Brown, Akron (Indians)
2B Adrian Cardenas, Lakewood (Phillies)
3B Chase Headley, San Antonio (Padres)
SS Chin-Lung Hu, Jack./Las Vegas (Dodgers)
OF Desmond Jennings, Columbus (Devil Rays)
OF Adam Jones, Tacoma (Mariners)
OF Cameron Maybin, GCL/Lake./Erie (Tigers)
DH Ryan Royster, Columbus (Devil Rays)

SP Wade Davis, V.B./Montgomery (Devil Rays)
SP Gio Gonzalez, Birmingham (White Sox)
SP Brandon Hynick, Modesto (Rockies)
SP Jake McGee, V.B./Montgomery (Devil Rays)
RP Jonathan Meloan, Jack./L.V. (Dodgers)

_____________

blurb in upton's write-up states that he will be the #1 prospect from the Southern League when the list is released on Monday.....

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nice

Nice to see Royster getting some respect, even if he is a corner-outfielder and not a DH.

Rays in '08.... Desmond Jennings - the breakout continues.....

by youALREADYknow on Oct 6, 2007 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

was there any doubt about Upton?

At #1 in the SL? Who else was there to challenge him?

http://www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Oct 6, 2007 4:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

longoria is an elite prospect

and the case could be made

by Wheelhouse on Oct 6, 2007 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Still

Upton is the #1 prospect in the league. It's already come out in print.

by Tyler on Oct 6, 2007 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so wrong

I could not have been more wrong on Longoria. He's been great.

Great power, great plate discipline. If he moves to 2B and sticks, he could put up Utley numbers.

by Galt on Oct 6, 2007 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Longoria

is a 3B. They're moving Aki. He played 2B the last day of the season and Friedman has already said (not publicly, but at a BP event at the Trop), that the plan all along was to have Aki move to 2B.

by Tyler on Oct 6, 2007 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Side By Side

Upton .309/.399/.556/.955 259 AB 80 H 34 XBH 144 TB 37 BB 51 K
Longoria .307/.403/.528/.930 381 AB 117 H 42 XBH 201 TB 51 BB 81 K

Upton - better BA
Longoria - better OBA due to having 8 more HBPs
Upton - better SLG
Upton - better XBH/BH ratio (42.5% to 35.9%)
Upton - better AB/XBH ratio (7.6 to 9.1)
Upton - better BB/K ratio (.73 to .63)
Upton - better AB/BB ratio (7 to 7.5)
Upton - better AB/K ratio (5.1 to 4.7)
Upton - more than 2 years younger at the same level

OK, I've made my case why Upton was better. Please make your case for Longoria. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Oct 6, 2007 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

interesting use of statistics

no need to mislead with statistics to show Upton as superior to Longoria (he doesn't need the help).

You list AB/BB, AB/K, and BB/K ratios as all being better for Upton. Well, that's really only 1 or 2 statistics, not 3 to be listed separately. Same thing with batting average (H/AB) along with XBH/H and AB/XBH ratios. More of the same being spread out into multiple statistics. And some of those things are pretty much identical. A mean 7 ABs per walk vs 7.5? 5.1 ABs per K vs 4.7?

by dj on Oct 6, 2007 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with a few points...

but, when evaluating hitters I use age v comp, PA/BB, PA/K, and XBH/H. Then I check the trends, if available, and scouting reports.

Given how lackluster Upton's first year was, I assume his trends are more impressive than Longoria as well.

So you're right, he threw too many stats at the argument that weren't needed, but the ends remain the same because even with a base eval, Upton is pretty clearly the superior prospect.

by beastball on Oct 6, 2007 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention

.309 vs .307 BA, or the OBP comparison. Those are essentially dead even...

There's an argument to be made that Upton is a better hitter, but not using those stats.

Good points by DJ, above - the terms he cites are all correlated, so can't be cited as independent examples.

by siddfynch on Oct 8, 2007 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i wasn't suggesting that upton shouldn't be #1

i was demonstrating that it is up for debate.....thanks for proving my point

by Wheelhouse on Oct 6, 2007 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Um

Doesn't a debate usually have someone arguing the other side? I don't see anyone above me suggesting that Longeria is a better prospect. So there was no "debate" just a disagreement on my methods. Well, if you'd like to give any reasons why Longoria is a better prospect, I'm still waiting.

To the posters above:
I disagree that any of the stats I used are meaningless. I use all of them when evaluating prospects. Just using K:BB won't give you the full picture of their batting eye. Players with 100:100 and 50:50 ratios are the same, but show differing abilities. The same goes for the XBH stats. Also, while the difference in some rate stats might seem trivial, over the long haul the difference will add up quickly. BTW, I'm not a pure stats guy either. Scouting reports can be just as useful too and I take them into account as well.

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Oct 10, 2007 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kershaw

by JakeFree on Oct 8, 2007 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

a really pointless debate

There is no argument you can make for Longoria. He's a great prospect, but he's not Upton.

Come from where you hide, So I may unchain my tempest, None will stop my tide, And you will tremble at my unrest.

by fyug on Oct 7, 2007 1:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No one is...

by Tyler on Oct 7, 2007 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yikes

With a few exceptions, all of these prospects are properties of playoff teams.

The Devil Rays ought to be competitive in 5 years with so many quality prospects -- not only on this list, but on recent lists in the past 5 years now entering the bigs.

On the other hand, The Pirates will be terrible for a long time at this rate. The Royals will only be mediocre with Teahen, Buck, Gordon, Butler, Gathright, Hochevar, Bannister, Soria, Greinke, and Meche unless a few mid-level FA's are added every year. By the time these sorts of teams have another highly-touted prospect, they will have lost at least one of their cornerstones.

The competitive balance in Major League Baseball still needs to be fixed somehow.

by Stat Ninja on Oct 7, 2007 2:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Rockies

The Rockies did it without adding any free agents.

My point is it all depends on how the Royals players develop. Gordon, Butler, Moustakas, Greinke, Meche, Hochevar, Soria, Cortes(my sleeper) etc.. is a very nice base. A few more good drafts and some luck could give this team an added boost.

I'd love to see it!

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 8, 2007 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And

It's not like Dayton's going to sit and do nothing with this anemic offense, he's pretty pissed and is going to get some bats via trade or free agency.

by doublestix on Oct 8, 2007 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but...

...the main difference between the youth movements in KC, Arizona, and Colorado is that KC's does not include a shortstop. Unless GMDM signs A-Rod to replace TPJ in KC, the Royals will almost certainly have a worse starting SS.

Former Royal farmhands Jeff Keppinger or Wilson Valdez would have been nice options compared to TPJ, who is the future Jason Smith at best. To date, I've heard nothing from the Royals suggesting that they recognize their #1 need or plan to address it.

by Stat Ninja on Oct 12, 2007 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The list isn't that long for long

By the time Moustakas is a productive Royal, there is a very good chance that more than one of Gordon, Butler, Hochevar, Greinke, and/or Soria will have moved on to another team.

by Stat Ninja on Oct 10, 2007 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs