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2008 - Dustin McGowan

what will it bring?

First let's look at 2007 for him.

IP   169.2
Hits 146
HR   14
BB   61
K's  144

type 2B HR BB  K  Avg OBP SLG OPS
vsLH 19 12 35  78 257 326 432 758
vsRH  8  2 26  66 198 262 252 514

Looking at that he had low hit numbers, very good K numbers for a first full year, decent but not great BB numbers.

Next when looking at splits you can see LH hit him much harder. But he was able to K lefties just as often as righties. This would imply his offspeed works just fine against them. And watching him you can see both his curve and slider inside account for most of his K's against lefties. Against righties it's the same pitches but away. He doesn't K that many with his fastball - which is normal for a ground-ball, or low in the zone, pitcher.

Looking at the month by month splits you can see he was bad in May, ok in June, and good the rest of the way.

If you looked at his batting average against the last 3 months you would be surprised at his ERA thinking it should be lower. But there were two things I saw.

  1. was he faced the Yankees a fair bit and walked them a lot and gave up too many runs in those games. But that's the Yankees.
  2. he was getting tired and running out of gas. I felt he pitched as well in August and September as in July but he frequently tired early in those games occasionally getting rocked.
OK - Now to the future.
  1. Endurance. He tired at the end and it clearly affected him. This was expected though. He even talked about this to the media and stated how he needs to be much better conditioned for the long season. This sounds a lot like what Verlander was saying last year. I just hope he bears fruit like Verlander who didn't tire so much this year.
  2. LH hitters. He has shown he can K them. His off-speed works fine against them. The problem is they are able to sit on his fastball too much and not only hit it but hit it hard. He needs to improve his change. Maybe even throwing a few more off-speed pitches early in the count. But the change is the big one.
  3. Fastball. It's a top-notch pitch. One of the best in baseball. But he rarely strikes anyone out with it. I think he is watching Halladay too much. He has to start throwing the high fastball for K's when ahead in the count. I like him pitching down in the zone. But with that fastball when ahead pitching up would be huge for him.
  4. Location. It was terrible early in the year when he got nervous or hit around a bit. But as the season progressed he maintained his cool more and more. I'm impressed.
  5. I think he will have a low to mid 3's ERA with K's slightly higher than IP, walks will go down a bit, hits will go up a bit.
Beyond) Improve the change, maintain confidence and control, throw the fastball up in the zone when ahead in the count => Ace

I don't expect all this of anyone and you shouldn't really ever expect an ace. But he really doesn't have far to go to become one. Only time will tell if he can make these steps.

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McGowan
Thanks for doing this.  As a Jays fan I've watched probably 90% of McGowan's starts.

I pretty well agree with most of what you've said.

To me it's all about confidence and command.  He has definitely turned the corner when it comes to self belief, and his command has also improved a lot.

As far as endurance, I think it was more of an issue with Marcum.  McGowan is a diabetic, but it is under control, and I don't see health or endurance as an issue going forward.

I think your ERA projection might be a tad optimistic pitching in the AL east, but I agree with the rest.  I'll be surprised if he doesn't finish in the top 5 in Cy Young voting once or twice before his career is over.

by GregJP on Oct 6, 2007 1:37 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Pretty decent analysis
As a Blue Jays fan, I've had alot of chances of watching him pitch. He did, as his numbers would attest, start off slow. But even that was deceiving. He would do really well for the first 5 innings or so and then fall apart. It kind of reminds me of the 1st time he got called up (i.e. evident high ceiling guy despite the ugly stats). Once he got that under control he quietly was one of the best pitchers the rest of the way.

I think that he had a low 3's ERA the rest of the way and even that was deceiving. He could cut down more runs if he holds runners better (I don't think that any runner was thrown out with him pitching) and avoid what I would call rookie mistakes (esp the wild pitches).

But as far as talent, he has a really high ceiling. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if in the next year or two he passes Halladay as the ace of the staff. He's got great movement on all his pitches.

His splits don't really worry me. It's not like LHB are knocking the cover off the ball and it's perfectly normal that LHB would hit him better. And I'm not really worried about the K rate either, which I figure will increase with experience. He's able to go deep into games most times and his QS% is very good considering the bumpy start to '07.

Another thing that I would like to see from him is consistent command of his pitches. There are games where he will walk alot of hitters. But, as his near no-no against the Rockies illustrates, on any given day, he can dominate just about anyone.

by parrot11 on Oct 6, 2007 1:56 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

splits
I'm not too worried on his LH splits. But I see it as an area he could really improve if his change-up improves.

His numbers against RH hitters show how dominant he can be. His numbers against LH hitters show where his improvement can come. I believe the Yankees are a LH hitting team and they torch McGowan.

Having an improved change will help him deal with LH stacked lineups.

Control?

Yeah he had problems at the beginning. Whenever he lost his composure his control became terrible. His mechanics changed when he lost his control - stride shortened, arm motion more over the top, etc.

I've seen this much less as the season progressed.

by pedrophile on Oct 6, 2007 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Health
I love the kid and think he has an electic arm....plus plus fastball and when that slider is working it's one of the best in the game.....he just needs to keep trusting his stuff and let his defense do the work, which he seemed to have figured out for the most part this year......confidence has been a big weakness for him in the past but he seemed to have over-come that

but the health does worry me....jays tend to let their starters throw way too many pitches way too often, and with his diabities the conditioning may always be an issue

by Wheelhouse on Oct 6, 2007 2:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

more?
I'm thinking on doing a few more if there is interest.

Guthrie, Delmon, Greinke, Upton are a few of the guys I'd consider.

by pedrophile on Oct 6, 2007 7:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Guthrie
Would be interesting.

I think you did one already on Zack, no? Or something similar?

by doublestix on Oct 6, 2007 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Zack
I did something similar for him. But I never tire about writing on Zack. When he first came up I wasn't so high on him because he was throwing 90 and everyone gave him the Saberhagen or Glavine comps. I think Chris George also was compared the same. But how often can anyone follow a Glavine?

But then he started to throw heat. I think Zack could be a special pitcher now.

by pedrophile on Oct 6, 2007 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i did something similar for gavin floyd
and i've just written a pair of spotlight pieces on brandon mccarthy and chad gaudin that i'll be posting on my blog early next week.  

thanks for adding to the collective knowledge of this blog's viewers.  

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (link fixed)
variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Oct 6, 2007 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

np
and can you post a link here of your blog?

thanks

by pedrophile on Oct 6, 2007 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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