FanPost

2008 Dice-K, what will it bring?

disclaimer I didn't get the chance to watch him pitch during that one stretch where he was totally lights out.

First the statistical side with some comments:

IP    Hit HR BB K's ERA
204.2 191 25 80 201 4.40

splits
LEFT: .238 / .744   RIGHT: .253 / .719 HOME: .266 / .750 AWAY: .230 / .714

The hit rate is good but not great. The BB rate is troublesome. But I am very very impressed with his K rate in his first full season. ERA reflects the high walk rate. I think his ERA would have been higher if not the very good K rate.

His split numbers are solid. A lot to like there.

His month by month numbers fluctuate but just about everyone has this. Maybe not quite as extreme, but no biggy.

Now the scouting side:

What I saw from him

when not tired:

He threw more pitch types than anyone. His fastball is excellent. Not too much movement but good control and velocity. Mid-90's.

His curve is a plus pitch. He has very good control over it and gets swings and misses.

His slider is another pitch that is plus.

His change is meh.

when tired:

His fastball only has average velocity and combined with not too much movement and it can be hit. When he tries to dial it up he loses control. At times he keeps the ball down when doing this. But many times the ball is left up.

His curve loses much of it's break. Hangs quite a few.

His change doesn't have the most depth to begin with. When tired it has nada. And he normally doesn't separate his change enough in velocity either.

Other bad things - tends to use too many different pitch types which doesn't help when losing control. This tends to help cause those long innings he is plagued with.

Analysis:

When he is rested and on his game hitters look silly with his combination of stuff, many pitches, location, etc.

But this was a very long season for him. Not only that but he tried to use the training regimen he used in Japan - but they played less frequently there. He did change his regimen as the season went on.

Late in the season he tired early in games. In the playoffs he looked dominant for a few innings throwing 95, big curves, sliders. Making hitters look silly. But once he started to tire his breaking stuff wasn't so sharp and adding zip to his fastball led to poor location.

What I see for him:

If he can improve his stamina he will be a dominant pitcher. It's as simple as that. He could improve from the stretch and/or improve his pickoff move. This did hurt him.

He did get rattled at times. He did overthrow. He has a slow motion and his throwing from the stretch has much less velocity.

But he's such a good talent that if he can keep his stamina he will still be dominant.

He consistently looks dominant before being tired.
He consistently looks like crap when tired. My biggest concern with him is the sharpness of his breaking pitches while tired.

If Dice-K can improve his conditioning we'll see a huge year from him.

I know I mention tiring an awful amount but it's huge in his case. I'm not going to get into the injury risk. It's just a huge unknown from the Japanese league to this league

Trending Discussions