2008 Dice-K, what will it bring?
by pedrophile on Oct 26, 2007 11:05 PM EDT
13 comments
disclaimer I didn't get the chance to watch him pitch during that one stretch where he was totally lights out.
First the statistical side with some comments:
IP Hit HR BB K's ERA
204.2 191 25 80 201 4.40
splits
LEFT: .238 / .744 RIGHT: .253 / .719 HOME: .266 / .750 AWAY: .230 / .714
The hit rate is good but not great. The BB rate is troublesome. But I am very very impressed with his K rate in his first full season. ERA reflects the high walk rate. I think his ERA would have been higher if not the very good K rate.
His split numbers are solid. A lot to like there.
His month by month numbers fluctuate but just about everyone has this. Maybe not quite as extreme, but no biggy.
Now the scouting side:
What I saw from him
when not tired:
He threw more pitch types than anyone. His fastball is excellent. Not too much movement but good control and velocity. Mid-90's.
His curve is a plus pitch. He has very good control over it and gets swings and misses.
His slider is another pitch that is plus.
His change is meh.
when tired:
His fastball only has average velocity and combined with not too much movement and it can be hit. When he tries to dial it up he loses control. At times he keeps the ball down when doing this. But many times the ball is left up.
His curve loses much of it's break. Hangs quite a few.
His change doesn't have the most depth to begin with. When tired it has nada. And he normally doesn't separate his change enough in velocity either.
Other bad things - tends to use too many different pitch types which doesn't help when losing control. This tends to help cause those long innings he is plagued with.
Analysis:
When he is rested and on his game hitters look silly with his combination of stuff, many pitches, location, etc.
But this was a very long season for him. Not only that but he tried to use the training regimen he used in Japan - but they played less frequently there. He did change his regimen as the season went on.
Late in the season he tired early in games. In the playoffs he looked dominant for a few innings throwing 95, big curves, sliders. Making hitters look silly. But once he started to tire his breaking stuff wasn't so sharp and adding zip to his fastball led to poor location.
What I see for him:
If he can improve his stamina he will be a dominant pitcher. It's as simple as that. He could improve from the stretch and/or improve his pickoff move. This did hurt him.
He did get rattled at times. He did overthrow. He has a slow motion and his throwing from the stretch has much less velocity.
But he's such a good talent that if he can keep his stamina he will still be dominant.
He consistently looks dominant before being tired.
He consistently looks like crap when tired. My biggest concern with him is the sharpness of his breaking pitches while tired.
If Dice-K can improve his conditioning we'll see a huge year from him.
I know I mention tiring an awful amount but it's huge in his case. I'm not going to get into the injury risk. It's just a huge unknown from the Japanese league to this league
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one bad inning
that would indicate mental fatigue or loss of concentration more than anything else; which is usually easier to "cure" than certain mechanics or physical flaws. I would assume a lot of pitchers (maybe even all of them) suffer from this but again he seemed to have more than a normal share of this.
He also throws more between starts than any MLB clubs ever recommend, perhaps this plays into his physical fatigue?
2008 is for sure a make or break yr for him. Can he adjust to MLB hitters, and handle adversity, different coaching, etc. - or not...
by dew on Oct 26, 2007 11:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
one bad inning
He used to throw much more. Gradually he has been changing this.
Part of the reason of the bad inning is throwing from the stretch like I mention.
Sometimes the innings are because he gets wild - this can happen when throwing many pitches. I've heard of many pitchers reducing the number of types of pitches.
But if you've watched him lately or much you will see him tiring. Last game he got through some innings he shouldn't have. But it was pretty obvious the problem wasn't one bad inning. He was excellent then tired then pitched poorly but somehow managed to tough it out and have a solid start.
by pedrophile on Oct 27, 2007 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
im not sure what you mean
That he has problems throwing from the stretch is kind of odd; maybe he changes his delivery some, does he slide-step from the stretch? This is not nearly as smooth as it often looks; real easy to get your head out in front and rush your delivery. If this truly is his problem he wouldn't be in MLB (or think Igawa)... ha, nice one for NYY scouts.
Go back and look at his non-quality starts, even a few of the games where he was the winning pitcher. There are quite a few where he gives up 4 or more runs in one inning, and none or one the other innings. Often these bad innings are within the first 4 or 5 of the game. This basically rules out physical fatigue. It appears to be a genuine lack of focus, losing his concentration, or perhaps Varitek's pitch calling. Does he shake him off a lot? Sometimes catchers need to go out to the mound and remind their teammate whose responsibility is whose. I've only watched one of his starts more than casually, that was the game they lost to Sea./Felix early in the yr. Dice looked great that night.
by dew on Oct 27, 2007 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you have to watch
I don't think he's a 5 inning guy. I think between the long year, the different routine, and the different and more patient lineups he has been sorely tested this year. I believe he will adjust.
Throwing from the stretch isn't odd. McGowan has the exact same problem. It affects them differently but the both are not good at this. With Dice-K he loses velocity. He probably doesn't get much leg drive from the stretch. I'm sure with some off-season work he will improve this.
I do realize he has the big inning. IMO a large part is the ability to work within the zone. When he's throwing pitches at the edge or off the plate it's easy to be successful. But with patient lineups, like Cleveland, this is more difficult to do.
Getting behind in the count off the plate then being forced to throw one over the plate can hurt any pitcher. And especially one that has never had to do this.
Look at the AAA and AA guys that get called up. They have the same types of problems.
by pedrophile on Oct 27, 2007 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regardless
by Wonderlic on Oct 27, 2007 1:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Gotta disagree with your scouting
His slider is not a plus pitch, He has to throw it out of the strikezone. He gets swings and misses on it but when he throws it for a strike it gets hammered (unless the hitter is caught off guard).
His curve is awful and should hardly ever be thrown. He has done a good job of sneaking it in there in fastball counts , but it has poor break and poor velocity.
His changeup (which is what people refer to as the gyro ball) is a circle change with movement down and away. TONS of pitchers throw a circle change. His is very good, maybe his best pitch.
Dice k to me would be best served to pitch off his fastbal, throw his slider in 0-2,1-2 counts and throw his changeup alot.
by jbluestone on Oct 27, 2007 1:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Disagree
by slurve on Oct 27, 2007 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not exactly sure what your saying
Thats what i thought at first, but he throws 91-93 (don't believe the fox guns) and he has some riding action on it (not much), but thats still an above average fastball. And he has very good control of it.
by jbluestone on Oct 27, 2007 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't say it wasn't
by slurve on Oct 27, 2007 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we'll remain disagreed then
His curve has good depth early in the game. At least the times I saw him. The velocity was a little high like you mentioned. Of course later in the game his curve was rotten as I did mention.
Slider? Don't most pitchers (RH) try to get right-handed hitters on low and away and left-handed hitters inside? Maybe his is not the best in the middle of the plate. It should never be located there.
Change? In his last game I saw one change I liked. I saw quite a few that had no depth. And the velocity change from his fastball was very inconsistent.
What I think we can agree on is that he can have very good stuff but it seems to be erratic with him. I believe in Japan he didn't have to pitch over the plate as much having the hitters chase his pitches. Now he has to learn to pitch within the plate more. This is very common for AA and AAA pitchers - and why they typically struggle in MLB.
by pedrophile on Oct 27, 2007 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good overview
i'd guess he'll improve....but that's just a guess.
by scooter on Oct 27, 2007 2:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
to answer the quetion
13+ wins 4.00- era 190+ ks 210+ ip
I think that would be my bottom of realistic expectations. I could see him doing better than that.
There is of course the possibility that the league adjusts to him more then he adjusts to the league, and he really struggles, but i would start with those numbers and anything extra is gravy.
by jbluestone on Oct 27, 2007 4:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pretty Much Agree
by Dfarth on Oct 27, 2007 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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