James Loney comparables and '08 forecast

by realityconquest on Oct 24, 2007 3:22 AM EDT Comment 37 comments

Just wanted to get everyones opinion on what kind of player you think Loney will become as he matures. What is Loney's ceiling? What would be a fair estimate to expect in '08?

Thanks a lot.

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I see

John Olerud.

Morrow is the Sea Diamond.

by PujolsJunkie on Oct 24, 2007 4:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

but

with slightly more pop

Morrow is the Sea Diamond.

by PujolsJunkie on Oct 24, 2007 4:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and

a lot more athleticism

by ScottAZ on Oct 24, 2007 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Olerud

Was an excellent athlete, from what I recall. He almost won the Pac-10 triple crown as a pitcher AND as a hitter.

by ajohnst1 on Oct 24, 2007 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think athleticism in this case might be more in reference to his speed. Olerud was the slowest guy ever. He hit for a cycle in one game, and after the triple he asked someone if the outfielder fell down. Loney, though no speed demon, isn't quite the tortoise Olerud was.

by MontrealMets on Oct 24, 2007 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK

So say he'll be like Olerud with more speed. Olerud was very slow (something I had forgotten when I wrote my first post), but he was an excellent "athlete" in the sense that he was a great defender, a smart baserunner despite his extreme lack of speed, was an excellent two-way player in college, etc.

by ajohnst1 on Oct 24, 2007 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He wishes...

...Olerud was an extremely underrated player...Oleurd is like Loney's 90th percentile projection.

It's Business Time

by uga007 on Oct 24, 2007 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mark Grace...

but with 25 HR per year power rather than 17. And not as good defensively (Grace I still say is one of the most underrated defensive 1B in history). They should have comparable doubles and batting average though.

"Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young and 11 Tim Lincecums." -uga007

by Boxkutter on Oct 24, 2007 6:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Grace

If Grace had started playing 10 years later, he would have been a 30 HR a year guy.

Vice-Chairman of the Sonnanstine Underground Railroad

by Brickhaus on Oct 24, 2007 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Adrian Gonzalez

by Bravesin07 on Oct 24, 2007 8:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My estimate

Nomar. A few good years with high batting average and decent power, then injuries start to kick in and he becomes below average for the position. I don't have particularly high hopes for him, never have.

Vice-Chairman of the Sonnanstine Underground Railroad

by Brickhaus on Oct 24, 2007 9:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

mildly incongruous

nomar had one of the greatest peaks of any player in this generation. and yet you compare loney to nomar and then say "i don't have particularly high hopes for him"? i realize loney is a 1B, but from 1998 to 2000, nomar hit 323/362/584, and then 357/418/603, and then 372/434/599. if loney can do that, i don't know how anybody could view it as anything other that great.

by jpahk on Oct 24, 2007 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Amen <eom>

by duke on Oct 24, 2007 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re

as others have stated above, a modern day Olerud type with more athleticism. I see consistent 310/380/480 years in his peak with 20+ homers, 40+ doubles and great defense

by ScottAZ on Oct 24, 2007 10:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think you have to expect

a higher slugging percentage than that...he has 446 at bats in the majors and a .546 slugging percentage. I can't imagine his first 450 atbats, especially at his young age, being that much better than his career after that.

by tt68 on Oct 24, 2007 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re

I was playing a bit conservative, but I do like Loney. I am especially pulling for him because so many have written him off and seems to have a lot of detractors

by ScottAZ on Oct 25, 2007 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

estimates

'08: .320/.370/.510 23 HR

peak: 28-33 HRs, .340s hitter, Gold Glove defense (looks kind of ridiculous written out, but it's tough for me to choose a more conservative peak than that, given his performance so far and how he looks at the plate)

ceiling: I've always seen Rafael Palmeiro as a decent comp as an absolute ceiling, though maybe that's hoping for a bit too much power (and also underestimating Loney's contact skills), but the two do remind me of each other in how they look at the plate.....statistically, the Nomar comp above might work as a ceiling, though I wouldn't view that as a bad thing

by bleedjaxblue on Oct 24, 2007 10:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Remember Palmeiro was chemically enhanced

by Bravesin07 on Oct 24, 2007 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, but...

....for how long?

he hit 37 homers in 1993, back when that was REALLY a lot of homers.

not saying he necessarily wasn't on steroids back then, but i'm not sure he was either.

by bleedjaxblue on Oct 24, 2007 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Canseco was on the 93 Rangers

So was Palmeiro, so you have envision him being on the juice in 93. A spike of 22 to 37 in one year usually doesn't happen nor does an increase of slugging from .434 to .554.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 24, 2007 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

usually doesn't?

sure -- it doesn't usually. but it's hardly a one-in-a-million, either.

it does sometimes. it's called "development."

your story is plausible, but it's mostly guesswork. it's also fairly irrelevant. saying someone's approach "looks similar to Rafael Palmeiro" doesn't really beg for a discussion of his PED use, and the accusations get tiresome.

by bleedjaxblue on Oct 24, 2007 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Canseco

Hate to drag this old story out, but in "Juiced" (which save for the Brett Boone Doubles story has been more or less proven accurate), Canseco recounts how he began juicing Juan-Gone, Pudge, and Raffy in the 1993 season. Palmeiro was using.

As for Loney, I'll only go so far as to say I love his approach and if he stays healthy, he should be at least an All-Star, perhaps even one in the Mattingly mold.

by GuyinNY on Oct 25, 2007 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe

though I'm really wondering what part of "Juiced" has "proven accurate"

the only thing that's really been PROVEN is that Canseco is consistently inaccurate with specifics and has a tendency for exaggeration

otherwise, i tend to believe the gist of his accusations, though i wouldn't trust his dates in the slightest, and would expect he'd fill the gaps in his memory in with people coming to him for steroids as soon as possible

so, no -- i don't think "Juiced" makes it any clearer, nor does it explain Palmeiro's slugging percentage in '91

by bleedjaxblue on Oct 25, 2007 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Juiced

Regarding the validity of Canseco's book, I think it would behoove us to remember what happened to Mark McGwire. Operation Equine, the FBI probe into steroid use during the 1990's, made public after the publication of "Juiced" corroborates Canseco's account of McGwire's use of PED's.

While I do not have the evidence available offhand, I've anecdotally noticed that there has been more or less a consensus about the validity of Canseco's claims. Afterall, it seems he really did live up to his billing as the "Typhoid Mary" of steroid use.

Moreover, if you ever get a chance to talk to ballplayers confidentially, they'll tell you that Canseco's full of shit, but that book was more accurate than most would've liked because he had an axe to grind. I am, however, very interested in what lurid details Canseco will reveal (or fabricate) in his latest work, due out this fall.

by GuyinNY on Oct 27, 2007 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

also....

....besides the fact that rises like that are more common than you think, you artificially inflate the size of his slugging spike. in 1991, he had a .532 slugging. in fact, .434 was his lowest slugging percentage since his rookie season (73 ABs at age 21).

by bleedjaxblue on Oct 24, 2007 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

...not

Todd Helton has you've comapared him to in the past.

by Havok1517 on Oct 24, 2007 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

todd helton comps

it has been CanuckDodger ever since Loney busted out in his rookie year to continually compare Loney to a non Coors induced Todd Helton.

Canuck has been pretty steadfast in that belief over the past 4 years and has faced persistent criticism over the past years for that opinion.

I also remember a Loney vs Jackson argument a year or two ago where Canuck was heavily criticized for his firm belief behind Loney.

by npurcell on Oct 24, 2007 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

sorry, Havok....i've never compared him to Todd Helton.

but would you still care to tell me it's proof i'm a "homer" for ranking James Loney #11 on the prospect list, and that there's no way he's a better prospect than Votto?

oh wait -- now I remember: his triple-A stats weren't good. i should have listened to you there.

by bleedjaxblue on Oct 25, 2007 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Loney

I have to say I was most impressed and surprised by Loney's power. I'm going to say Crime Dog(sorry, can't think of his real name right now), with maybe better BA and only slightly less power. The sky's the limit. Arrgh!! I hope I'm wrong.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 24, 2007 11:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs