Alex Gordon vs Justin Upton

by RIcardinals on Oct 22, 2007 9:37 PM EDT Comment 43 comments

Member of a Face To Face Apba keeper league with the second pick. First four picks figure to be Braun #1, then Gordon, Upton & Pemce. Who figures to have the highest ceiling. Position is not really a factor although all things being equal outfielders are easier to come by. Draft consists of rookies. Anyone who appeared in a game. This includes Brandon Wood, Philip Hughes,Tim Lincecum.

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Upton

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Oct 22, 2007 9:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pence

There is no way Pence should go before Hughes or Lincecum.

If Upton is there, you have to take him.

by GregJP on Oct 22, 2007 10:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

I was wondering the same thing. The only question I have with Lincecum is his team. With Bonds gone it will open up some money, but just wondering whom they will bring in to help out.
In APBA league, ERA is a big thing, and W/L is nothing. I have Cain and he has a decent card even though his record was shit.

by ChrisRef19 on Oct 23, 2007 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't understand

The fact that Bonds is gone can only help Lincecum and Cain. Especially if wins/losses is insignificant.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 23, 2007 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

I don't know if bonds being gone will help or hurt, I am just saying it frees up some money for them to go out and by a bat to help out. I guess it was a broad statement that made no sense.

Lincecum's era will be fine, but I am more concered about a young players confidence when they pitch the lights out and cannot get any run support.

by ChrisRef19 on Oct 23, 2007 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thats the consensus but ...

just to stir the pot I'm going w/ Gordon. How much would an OF have to outplay a 3B for the OF to have more value? Does Upton play more CF or RF? I know he can play CF but should he?

career upside: Gordon over Upton (extraordinary close), then Braun & Pence (closer than one would think if - Braun moves to OF)

immediate value (next 2 seasons):
Gordon (25 HRs-25 SBs, solid D and 900 OPS)
Braun (has to regress somewhat right?)
toss-up between Upton & Pence; in 2010 Upton should blow by them both

by dew on Oct 22, 2007 10:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Remember....

3B has been a very, very deep position the last couple years. It carries the same scarcity factor as 1B and the OF.

They are pretty even in my book. Gordon is probably the safer pick, whereas Upton has the HUGE upside. When playing fantasy, you have to have a mix of those type of players in order to succeed, so I would have to see the rest of the team to form a good enough opinion.

by guru4u on Oct 23, 2007 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Depends on the League

Upton will likely have better SB but I don't really see the AVG/HR/RBI/OBP/SLUG being that different - and probably in Gordon's favor. A lot of Upton's value lies in his D and his speed...

by Dfarth on Oct 22, 2007 10:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gotdon versus Upton

Despite the scouts rave reviews that Upton is the second coming of Griffey & or ARod, I am leaning towards Gordon. The scouts fall in love with just about every 19 year old playing several levels above the league average. Still the scouts said JD Drew was the next Mantle ( or was that Boras ? ) and that CoCo Crisp could not play center, he played left in Cleveland. Gregg Jefferies anyone ? Gordon is a better fit for my roster and I already have Sizemore, Rios, Markakis, BJ Upton in the outfield. I guess it comes down to is Upton a omce in a generation player?

by RIcardinals on Oct 22, 2007 10:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Andruw Jones the next Mays

add him in there as well, despite him having Mays like fielding he clearly never became a good hitter.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 23, 2007 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what?

Andruw never became a good hitter? He's had OPS+ seasons of 136, 127, 126, 125, 117, 116, 113 and 112.

by mdickson on Oct 23, 2007 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A .260 BA is not a good hitter

If he cared about the game more instead of being lazy after 2000 he could of been amazing. He fell apart after hitting .300 that one year and tried to pull everything which is why he K'd a ton more and drew fewer walks.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 23, 2007 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

RE: Average

Using average as a measure of offensive ability or productivity is a very dangerous endeavor. Without rehashing arguments that can be found in greater detail on the internet, there are more consistent and more significant numbers to look at, like on-base percentage and slugging average, both areas where he has fared well, positionally.

by kschellenger on Oct 23, 2007 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Most of the time the reason scouts are wrong

Aren't necessarily misjudgments. They were wrong on Drew partially because he became real injury prone (although, I don't know if he was really the next Mantle since he plays in a corner). One might be able to make the same case for Jefferies. I can't speak for Crisp because I've never read scouting reports saying that he couldn't play center.

But you have to keep in mind that scouts are really conservative with their predictions, and when they say someone is going to become the next Griffey-level player, you can bet that the only things stopping them are off-field issues or health. They only say it about a player once a decade. If that.

However, Dew does bring up a good point. If Upton is going to be playing right field instead of center, his value drops significantly, and Alex Gordon is the safer pick who plays a position of very similar value. Overall, I don't think you can go wrong with either one. I might go for Upton just because he has the potential to move to center field if something were to happen to Chris Young. (Injury, trade, you name it.) But if you already have a lot of outfielders, Gordon might just be the way to go.

by elrey34 on Oct 23, 2007 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well Said

Although I personally would take Upton because of the speed (in fantasy, not necessarily in real life).

by Yakker on Oct 23, 2007 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

please clarify

would you take Gordon over Upton in real-life?

by So Cal Bob on Oct 23, 2007 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I might

I don't know enough about Upton's makeup to know for sure, but after watching AG this year, I do think Gordon's got all the mental tools to go along with his obvious physical gifts.

by Yakker on Oct 23, 2007 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you pass on Upton

You will regret it. He's got the highest ceiling and is the best bet for 2008.

by rwperu34 on Oct 23, 2007 10:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Another APBA Question

Ok, since this topic is brought up I will just add to it with another question...

I want to stretch it out a little further since I have pick 6 and 11 in two different sim league drafts...

Where do you see these guys falling?

Gordon, Upton, Braun, Barton, Votto, Clement, Salty
Ellsbury, Maybin, Pie, Butler, Wood, Stewart, Reynolds
Buck, Balentien

Buchholz, Gallardo, Dice K, Bailey, Hughes, Lincecum
Morales, Danks, Chamberlain, Morrow

I really like Upton, Gordon, Maybin, Buchholz, Gallardo, Hughes, Lincecum and Chamberlain. I will go with the best player possible, then draft for needs since all positions are full.

by ChrisRef19 on Oct 23, 2007 10:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Depends

I think it depends on team needs and league members philosophies, but:
Braun goes #1, then the 8 you listed that you "really like" probably, along with Pence, go in some order.

That leaves you at 11 with only one of your list of 8. But, if a team in your league really needs a catcher, I could see Salty going top 10, too. Someone could take Dice-K before one of the arms you listed, as well.

I think you may want to take a bat at 6, and hope you get one of your arms at 11. I doubt one of Upton, Gordon or Maybin fall that far.

by drwmsu1 on Oct 23, 2007 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

All of the top pick teams need help. I have a good OF, so so pitching, and needs at catcher with my 6th pick. I am in the final four with my team that has 11th pick, and really have no needs so I can reach for guys who wont start for a couple years.

I hope to get one of the 8 I listed, and Pence was meant to be on there too.

With pick 11, I was actually thinking Salty because I have Kendal and Johjima, so it would make dropping Kendal very easy.

Thanks for the words!

by ChrisRef19 on Oct 23, 2007 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Braun

How is it assumed Gordon > Braun?

by McLovin on Oct 23, 2007 11:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It isn't

If you read the post, he said Braun was going to go number one.

If you're talking about real life, not fantasy, I do think most assume that Gordon will have a better career, but that's because he has the chance to be an elite third baseman and a complete package (hitting, speed, defense). Braun will probably have to switch positions. And Gordon might still be the better hitter for their careers, despite Braun's MONSTER rookie season.

by ajohnst1 on Oct 23, 2007 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Upton

over Braun, Gordon, etc.

The last prospect that the scouts agreed to be a once in a generation talent - A-Rod. Before him it was Griffey.

by pedrophile on Oct 23, 2007 8:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Andruw Jones was another one of those

Remember that, and he never reached his ceiling. Upton is going to be the next Vlad IMO though.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 23, 2007 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jones...

He's still had one hell of a career, whether he reached his perceived ceiling or not.

by doublestix on Oct 23, 2007 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True but still a massive dissapointment in my eyes

Never took full advantage of his natural talent and I feel he got lazy this year. Too much of a pull hitter.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 23, 2007 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Andruw

That should tell you how much talent Jones has, since he's a near lock for the HOF.

by rwperu34 on Oct 24, 2007 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Vlad?

Upton has shown much better on-base skills than Vlad did at his age, and has the ability to play a defensive premium position. And even if Upton doesn't play center for even half of his career, there's a huge likeliness that he'll at least become a plus defender at a corner -- very unlike Vlad who is definitely sub-par.

by elrey34 on Oct 24, 2007 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree

With all the increasing media out there, the hype machine seems to be ratcheting up these days. Words that probably used to die in small corners now get repeated and amplified, to the point that I see someone being called a "once in a generation talent" every couple years, if not more often.

It's easy to recall A-Rod, Griffey, and Elway because they all made good on that promise. But Mark Prior was also called a once in a generation pitcher by a lot of people...Josh Beckett was too...and Kerry Wood, after throwing one of the best games ever recorded for a pitcher (what was it, 20Ks and one baserunner?)...Vlad Guerrero...all these guys, and more, were called once-in-generation talents at some point or another. The term is almost meaningless.

by siddfynch on Oct 23, 2007 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the slayer

those are all pitchers. except vlad, and what's wrong with him? pitchers and hitters, different beasts. once in a generation hitters, i feel like, the scouts are rarely wrong about.

by wily mo on Oct 24, 2007 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Meaningless?

Did you really just use Vladdy as an example of someone who did not live up to the hype?

I must be drunk. Or perhaps you are...

by Yakker on Oct 24, 2007 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

I just listed him as another guy who carried that label at one point..as well as a few others who people may forget had the label. You can mix and match successes and failures however you want, it all just points out this label is used annually, or nearly so.

by siddfynch on Oct 24, 2007 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Still Not Getting It

I don't see how pointing to a guy who's "made good" on his predictions (and probably even exceeded them, as BJB alludes to below) helps prove your point.

But that's fine.

I initially thought you were somehow saying Vlad wasn't a "one-in-a-million" talent, which I would have taken issue with.

by Yakker on Oct 24, 2007 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Much ado over nothing

My point is that the label is used more frequently than the rate at which it would actually be defined as....whether or not the player then turns out to be mediocre, great, or a HOFer is then irrelevant.

Not worth this much discussion...I'm sure we'd both agree that there's plenty of misplaced hype out there, and that's all I;m trying to say - every 3 or 4 years or so, some analyst is out there saying a guy is the next DiMaggio/Mantle/Mays/Koufax/Maddux etc. Obviously, those guys don't come along every 3 or 4 years.

by siddfynch on Oct 24, 2007 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

Elway plays football. At least he does now. The rest are pitchers.

Vlad is going to the HOF. Same with A-Rod and Griffey.

Looks like you are making my point. Thanks for the props.

by pedrophile on Oct 24, 2007 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm

I figured you were bright enough to get the analogy of Elway. Like A-Rod and Griffey, he was rated as high as could be, across the board (maybe even more so)...and then proceeded to live up to that billing. Such things are rare. Sorry to not have spelled the analogy in sufficient detail.

Whether Vlad is going to the Hall or not is not the issue...the issue that, guess what, he's from the same generation as Griff and A-Rod - thus, by definition, all three of them cannot be "once in a generation.", despite being labeled such. And I'm not even going thru a mental checklist of all the guys I've heard labelled that over the years. Some of which have gone on to become good players and some have not. Either way, they all add to the observation that this label is used more than once every 15 years.

by siddfynch on Oct 24, 2007 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK

your argument is "once-in-a-generation hitter" doesn't actually mean that that hitter only comes along once in a generation, literally.

pedrophile's argument was that, every time it IS used, the person does indeed turn into a HOF-level hitter.

your argument doesn't really contradict (or even inform) his.

also, i would actually disagree that Vlad had that label -- not while he was a minor leaguer, at least. the period where he got THAT hyped was when he was outperforming Andruw when they both started their big league careers, and, by transitivity, since Andruw DID have the "once-in-a-generation" rep (though less so than ARod or Griffey, I'd say), it made Vlad receive a lot of hype. which he's actually lived up to, so none of this really has a point, besides to say that he shouldn't be an example of this type of hitter.

by bleedjaxblue on Oct 24, 2007 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs