2007 World Series, who wins?
The World Series is set. It pits large market Boston against predominantly homegrown Colorado.
I am so excited. Who will win?
0 recs |
181 comments
Comments
Be fair
That said, i think Colorado wins in a sweep.
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 22, 2007 12:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Starting 9
by mdickson on Oct 22, 2007 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
9
Then there's Varitek (O Captain, My Captain) who was traded for as a prospect.
Ortiz was a Twins discard piece.
The hallmarks of the Big Bad Big Market team are, IMO, free agent signing. In the starting 9, that's Manny (stud), Drew and Lugo (Duds).
Papelbon and Delcarmen are homegrown.
Okajima was thought by most to be a babysitter for...
Dice-K who happens to be the only big free-agent signee in the rotation.
I'm not saying the Sox are not big market by any means, but they're not exactly a mercenary group either. They're a team built primarily through smart trades (beckett, varitek), a much improved farm system (youk, pedroia, Ellsbury, papelbon, delcarmen, lester) and some good old fashioned dumb luck (Lowell and Ortiz)
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 22, 2007 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i've been trying to decide...
if Colorado sweeps, it's awesome: 1) because i really like them, and 2) because their current streak is so unbelievable
BUT
if Boston sweeps, it drives the point home so hilariously how much better the AL is than the NL
could there be anything funnier than the Rockies supposedly unstoppable momentum running into the buzz-saw (and complete buzz-kill) of a much better American League team?
as much as i like the Rocks, i would hate for an opportunity like this to be thrown away. i may just have to root for a BoSox sweep, much as it kills me to do it....
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 22, 2007 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why a sweep?
by Pawtucket Pat on Oct 22, 2007 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
because....
also, i'd only want it to "go the distance" if i DIDN'T have any preference between the teams.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 22, 2007 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you say so
by Pawtucket Pat on Oct 22, 2007 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so when you're rooting....
and, when a team's on a historic winning streak, you hope, instead of the streak historically continuing, that it stop uncerimoniously but not in a similar drastic fashion?
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 22, 2007 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I don't care one way or the other
by Pawtucket Pat on Oct 22, 2007 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sox in 6.
Oh, and another statistic that has no bearing, but that people like to bring up: that the Rockies won 2 out of 3 against Boston this year during the regular season. Head-to-head matchup statistics from the regular season have also been shown to have absolutely no bearing on the postseason. For a recent anecdotal example, the Yankees were 6-0 against the Indians this year. Postseason? 1-3. You could come up with a million examples of this, because the truth is that a one- or two-series sample from the regular season is waaaay too small a sample to derive any predictive value from.
I should note, of course, that I'm a biased Sox fan. Doesn't mean I'm wrong, though.
by abbreviatedman on Oct 22, 2007 1:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
all this is certainly true
i don't want to do the math (let alone figure out the proper "league adjustments" for winning percentage), but a team that wins 55% of its games versus the league probably wins a 7-game series at least 47% of the time against a team that won 59% of their games. i mean, the percentage in the 7-game series CAN'T be as large as 10% -- the Sox didn't even win that many more games than they lost against the LEAGUE, let alone against the best team in the NL.
predicting postseason series is what it is: by definition, a shot in the dark.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 22, 2007 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
by elrey34 on Oct 22, 2007 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uhm
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 22, 2007 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
by RedHopeful on Oct 22, 2007 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scratch that post
by RedHopeful on Oct 22, 2007 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That doesn't take away from my point.
by elrey34 on Oct 22, 2007 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Legen....
by Boxkutter on Oct 22, 2007 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sawx
by whichthat on Oct 22, 2007 1:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Unlike the tribe
I don't see the Sox winning any games at Coors.
by achengy on Oct 22, 2007 1:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Killer Instinct
I hope this is some kind of firejoemorgan.com like joke.
Momentum + killer instinct + clutch hitting means they should win in -3 games.
by GregJP on Oct 22, 2007 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
argh
i have no problem with any individual person's beliefs, but i am personally offended by the simple equation of "character" with faith in the bible...
please excuse me if this is out of bounds to bring up, but it's bothered me about the rockies for a while now. i am not trying to disrespect anybody's faith, nor am i accusing rockies' management of discriminating against non-believers. i am just very wary of the kind of rhetoric i see used in this article. thoughts?
by D O on Oct 22, 2007 3:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey
by PujolsJunkie on Oct 22, 2007 4:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
darn
by EarnYourStripes on Oct 22, 2007 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except...
by drjayphd on Oct 22, 2007 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What?
by ajohnst1 on Oct 22, 2007 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, I'll elaborate
If the Red Sox payroll was cut in half, I'd expect the fanbase outside of Boston to plummet. I can't fault anyone for rooting for their hometown team, but the bandwagon idiots that comprise "Red Sox Nation" outside of Massachusetts are horrible.
by ajohnst1 on Oct 22, 2007 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Built on Money
Yet how can I call the Yankees evil (because that question would inevitably come up)? What's the difference? The difference is that the Yankees (and their fans) EXPECT to win every year, as if the title is theirs to lose. You have no freaking clue how grateful Red Sox fans are to have won that title in 2004 or to be back in this situation again.
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 22, 2007 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So your problem
As for the ESPN overexposure... the consensus is that they really need to, how you say, STFU already? They're physically incapable of reporting on anything that doesn't involve the Yankees or the Sox, and just end up annoying everyone. (See: their "will they or won't they?" vigil in Tampa while two other teams no one's heard of are playing in this ALCS thingy.)
And my experience with other, fellow Red Sox fans is that, well, the Yankees thing is kind of done with already. Boston won the division, Boston's in the World Series, and the Red Sox have been the more well-regarded team, not New York. Hey, the bandwagon fans are just catching up on history and they're only up to about 2002. Although I will say the Red Sox can't really lob financial insults at the Yankees, because they're really no better in that regard, but fand of the majority of teams can't really say anything about spending because there's ridiculous contracts all over baseball.
by drjayphd on Oct 22, 2007 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ESPN
Secondly, while they're obnoxious, they're doing what every network does, cater to the largest audience possible. The Red Sox and Yankees have the largest fanbases and get the best ratings, therefore, that's what they report on.
it'd be nice to see Soccer get some decent coverage on ESPN, but they don't get the ratings so that won't happen.
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 22, 2007 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A Too-Long Response
The reason the Sox have a weird inferiority complex and view ourselves as underdogs to the Yankees is that, sure, we may have a payroll 20% higher than the 3rd place team, but the Yankee payroll is over 50% higher again than ours, and that's before you add the immense luxury tax that they pay. The Red Sox spend so much money because otherwise they have no shot at their division. They have to spend 65% as much as the Yankees to compete with them. It really, really sucks for the three other teams in the division, but it's not Boston's fault that the Yankees are spending that much money. It's either spend or die in the AL East.
As a Sox fan, I'd feel guilty about this if it weren't for the fact that the Red Sox aren't just spending more money than everyone but the Yankees, but they're spending it really well, for the most part. They make fewer mistakes than any of the other rich teams. Sure, there are some small-market teams that are probably run even better, and that couldn't afford to absorb wasting money on Drew and Lugo (at least this year, here's hoping the rest of those contracts are a bit more favorable). But the Sox are run very well, with few long-term contracts given out to over-30 players, with spending their money on the farm system instead of cutting corners there (the Yankees are starting to do this as well, of course), and letting go of players at the right time (Damon and Pedro come to mind). So while you can't root for us over teams like, say, the Indians and Rockies and D-Backs, you can root for us over foolishly bloated payrolls, like the Cubs, Mariners, or White Sox.
As to Sox fans... I'm admittedly quite biased here, but I think a lot of "bandwagon fans" you're seeing are people who were quiet while the Sox sucked (before '03, really), but have been lifelong fans and are now happy that their favorite team is good again. What's so wrong with trotting out your team's colors now that they don't suck anymore? It's a happy time to be a Red Sox fan.
All that said, I of course understand why most fans don't see much difference between Sox and Yankee fans recently, and because there are more fans of both, there are more stupid fans of both.
P.S.I find myself completely incapable of completing a coherent argument lately, incidentally, for which I apologize.
by abbreviatedman on Oct 22, 2007 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Foolishly bloated payrolls, like the...Mariners
by elrey34 on Oct 22, 2007 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow...
by RVachon on Oct 23, 2007 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It won't last
by drjayphd on Oct 22, 2007 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very interesting...
by coochorama on Oct 22, 2007 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Greg Reynolds
I don't have a problem with it, they are not pushing their beliefs on anyone and if they weren't in the World Series this wouldn't even be a story.
It's a nice change from the usual crap in sports, I don't even watch the NBA anymore because of their horseshit attitudes and behavior.
by colinadam on Oct 22, 2007 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
by Yakker on Oct 22, 2007 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you understand
"the underlying implications that by being Christian that they are better than the other baseball teams."
Who is implying that?
The whole article completely misunderstood. It isn't like they have a whole team prayer and carry around crosses or bibles... Come on now.
by BlackOps on Oct 22, 2007 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Black Ops
What if Hirsh is uncomfortable in the clubhouse? It's not like he has the ability to go to another team if he chooses. The CBA doesn't allow that, so he is either forced to hide his beliefs or give up his livlihood to work in the industry of his choice.
The underlying implications comment comes mostly from my observations of Christianity in America today. It is just a personal observation and is not meant to be overarching or imply that you should agree with the statement. I'll be more clear in the future to distinguish those points.
Bibles are being carried around in the clubhouse. Players and managers have been "saved". Team prayer is common (although not mandatory). How is this comfortable for someone on the "outside"?
by coochorama on Oct 23, 2007 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is just stupid
by AucklandGM on Oct 23, 2007 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
Having bible groups is a non-issue either. But to have bibles in the rooms, scripture on the walls, and management encouraging bible groups -> that is something different.
I know they profess being open with other religions. But what would their reaction be if someone put the Quran on tables and put up quotes from it?
And that begets the bigger issue. Most people of other religions would not feel comfortable to put up scripture from their beliefs because of fear of reprisal from either the large group of players in the bible group or from management that is pro christian. And of course people of non-belief would feel similarly.
by pedrophile on Oct 23, 2007 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Auckland GM
Judge not lest you also be judged, right? And what do you mean by people like me? Open minded? Closed minded? Liberal? Conservative? Stupid? Smart? Or just different from you? My guess is that this is the case. I am probably different from you.
By the way, if you actually read what I wrote you would discover that I agreed that banning Playboy and Penthouse was pretty much acceptable. But having the Bible, sports magazines, and newspapers as the only acceptable reading. Uh, no. What about the Koran? The Torah? These are apparently unacceptable...and it's kind of funny that they did hire a rapist (or at least a person suspected of being one). Perhaps you should not use only emotional arguments to substantiate your claims. That type of behavior, although popular with talk radio and Ann Coulter, does not give substance to your argument, no matter how loudly you make it.
by coochorama on Oct 23, 2007 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
by AucklandGM on Oct 23, 2007 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Irony
"We had to go to hell and back to know where the Holy Grail is. We went through a tough time and took a lot of arrows," says Rockies chairman and CEO Charlie Monfort, one of the original owners.
Monfort did, too. He says that after years of partying, including 18 months' probation for driving while impaired, he became a Christian three years ago. It influenced how he wanted to run the club, he says.
"We started to go after character six or seven years ago, but we didn't follow that like we should have," he says. "I don't want to offend anyone, but I think character-wise we're stronger than anyone in baseball. Christians, and what they've endured, are some of the strongest people in baseball. I believe God sends signs, and we're seeing those."
This alludes to the fact that they are Christians.
The statement of Christian persecution is humorous, especially in our generation in this country. What happened to the Jewish peoples in WWII is persecution. In this country today, the government is essentially bordering upon a church state. The evangelical movement drives the GOP and is winning elections for the most part. How does this neophyte know what it is like to be persecuted for his Christian beliefs, other than by a couple of hacks like me on a message board he'll never read. And I'm Christian. That's the humor of the situation. I'm proud of it. I taught Sunday School for 5 years. That's not the point. And I assume that everyone can "practice" their beliefs in the Rockies clubhouse, just as long as it doesn't interfere with the prayer groups and upper management prayer circles, and the scriptures on the walls, and the bibles everywhere. I love the fact that the Rockies are supporting strong moral values, I just don't like them using Christianity to do it. Gotta run, gotta work. More on this later.
by coochorama on Oct 23, 2007 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interpretation...
by cooper7d7 on Oct 24, 2007 7:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cooper
I didn't interpret that this way, but feel much more comfortable in that statement if I think of it this way.
by coochorama on Oct 24, 2007 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Judge not
I agree with AucklandGM that cheering against a team because they attempt to live by Christian principles WITHOUT forcing it on anyone is daft. Putting Bible verses on the wall is no more forcing someone to be Christian than putting porn on the wall forces them to become a gigolo.
So, it is OK to run a team with NO guiding principles of ethical behavior, but not to run a team by Christian principles? OOOOOOOOOK
And, lo and behold, it looks like their philosophy is working.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 23, 2007 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
First, how can you have "no problem" with a belief but be offended by the belief that character equates to faith.
Do you really have no problem with "any individual person's beliefs"? I have a problem with many person's beliefs. Some people believe in; torture, murder, sexual abuse and...well, I really don't have to go on with this.
If you own a business, do you have the right to control the the audio and visual surroundings of the workplace?
I don't want to offend you or anyone else, I just want people to examine their knee-jerk reaction to Christianity and Christians in general. Seriously, how would you feel about someone who professes to believe in something that is supposed to influence EVERY aspect of their life including their relationships to other people and not evidence that in their day-to-day life?
by Yoda on Oct 23, 2007 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one point to consider
I would suggest that someone in EVERY work setting is "left out" for numerous reasons. Just being on the outside does not make for a difficult work environment. I have yet to hear about a football team that convenes before and after games for prayer having issues due to some not participating--being left out. I, personally, don't feel this is an issue.
by So Cal Bob on Oct 23, 2007 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, none of us are perfect..
by Yoda on Oct 23, 2007 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
by So Cal Bob on Oct 23, 2007 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reply
Anyway, in response, I suppose I should say I have no problem with any individual person's private faith in God. I do have a big problem with that person thinking their faith makes them better than other people. You act as though it is impossible to be a Christian without taking on that attitude. I'm not sure I agree with you on that, but if you're right, then, yes--it's a problem I have with religion in general.
I think others have articulated my feelings on this already, but I will state them briefly. The Rockies have the right to run their business on a set of moral or spiritual principals if they want to. I also believe that they have never coerced any member of the organization to convert, or to attend prayer meetings etc. However, when management says that the organization is stronger than any other because "we are Christian," you cannot convince me that a person of a different religion wouldn't feel at all uncomfortable with that. It is a stated organizational objective, the implication of which is that non-Christian players are not preferred because they are likely to lack "character.". And because their players have little recourse as far as seeking employment with a different team, they are more or less stuck in that situation.
The bottom line as I see it is this: How would it feel to be and atheist in that clubouse? Or, perhaps more to the point, how would it feel to read from the Torah, or perform Salah in that clubhouse? I don't know, but I'm guessing it would be somewhat uncomfortable. And I have a problem with that.
PS-That said I really can't stand the Sox and I don't know what to do! I picked Boston in the poll because I think they WILL win.
by D O on Oct 24, 2007 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Happy Birthday earth
Of course, if you don't believe in the literal word of the bible, then why believe in any of it?
And if you believe in the literal word of the bible, then, umm. OK.
by Galt on Oct 23, 2007 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 23, 2007 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Make sense
by Galt on Oct 23, 2007 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
God
Everything in the Bible is true except for the parts that contradict organized religion, those are just allegory.
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 23, 2007 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Geez
Have you heard of such a thing as literary genres? One example of a literary genre is "history". One would normally take a historical book literally. Another is "allegory". One would not normally take a book of that type that completely literally.
Guess what? The Bible contains many books, of many different types of literature, and even within some books, there are different types of literature. The first part of Genesis, for example, is pretty obviously not meant to be literal. You think ancient people were that dumb that they just didn't realize that they were blatantly contradicting themselves between Genesis 1 and 2!?!
Yes, the Bible is the Word of God. But it is also written by man, and you have to interpret it according to the type of literature it is (and the way language was used back then), and this takes quite a bit of study. Genesis was written thousands of years ago. You can't assume it was written for a 21st century American! You can't assume it is meant to be taken scientifically, when modern science basically DIDN'T EXIST at that time.
And yes, I realize that this flame of a post applies equally as well to a Christian fundamentalist who takes the Bible completely literally as it does to you guys. But seriously, you are tearing down straw men, and not interacting with intelligent religion at all, when you do so.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 23, 2007 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Now, we DO understand how many (though not all) of those things occur, yet we cling to beliefs that run counter to what have become clear truths. Some things are still beyond our understanding, but that doesn't make them miraculous any more than it makes them magical.
The bible is a good and valuable story, it's lessons may be some of the most valuable and revolutionary ever, but it's still just a story and not to be taken literally.
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 23, 2007 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
Example: Because some things that were once believed to be miracles have been scientifically explained, therefore all things that are believed to be miracles have scientific explanations.
Much, but not all, of the Bible is meant to be taken literally. The Gospels, in particular, are definitely meant to be taken literally, though some of Jesus' sayings may not necessarily be intended to be taken literally. Christians living in the 1st century did not die en masse for a quaint story.
It seems to be that part of your problem is that you assume complete stupidity on the part of people living in the past. Sure, they didn't have modern science and they may have been illiterate, but that isn't the same as being stupid. Their memories, in general, would put ours to shame, and they had roughly the same intellectual capacity as we have now. They wouldn't die en masse for a made up story which they could easily disprove by asking their contemporaries.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 23, 2007 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should so stay out...
"Logical fallacy: Because some A are B, therefore all A are B..."
what he said was not a logical fallacy.
"because some A are B, it's possible (or perhaps likely) that other A are B" is much closer to what he actually said.
furthermore, your generalization isn't necessarily a logical fallacy. it would depend on other circumstances, none of which are defined here.
----------------
"Christians living in the 1st century did not die en masse for a quaint story."
well, i'm sure they didn't BELIEVE it was a "quaint story".....
it might be, dare i say, a logical fallacy, however, to say, "though people took extreme measures in the name of a cause, parts of which later turned out to false, it is NOT POSSIBLE that ALL of their cause was untrue by virtue of the fact that their measures were extreme"
----------------
" Their memories, in general, would put ours to shame"
Huh? What are you talking about???
I researched memory for almost three years, and I have no idea on what basis you're making this claim.
---------------
"they had roughly the same intellectual capacity as we have now"
True. And, if Crimson's calling them "stupid," then he's wrong, and your point is relevant.
But I think what Crimson is ACTUALLY saying is they were relatively uneducated and ignorant of many relevant facts. Therefore, they wrote a story that made as much sense as they could make of the world, thinking nothing they wrote could ever be disproven.
With modern science, we know that a lot of what they said is false. Furthermore, you have to question why God would have given a story that matched up so perfectly with how little they knew at the time, but not with "facts" God should have "known" (like the age of the Earth).
Of course, you might say, "God didn't want to confuse them by imparting a whole lot of new and difficult-to-contemplate knowledge"......but isn't that exactly what the point of the Bible was?????
Given all that, SOME might question why anyone's holding onto ANY of the stories left in the Bible as more than utter fiction, penned man a long, long time ago, and of no more grand wisdom than, say, a book by any other philosopher. Perhaps your FAVORITE philosopher (not mine), but no more than that.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 23, 2007 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well put
I don't believe the people of the 1st century c.e. were stupid, I believe they were ignorant in comparison to us, just as we will seem ignorant in comparison to people 200 years from now (should we survive that long). They had very little knowledge of how the world around them worked. Like most eras though, they attempted to build upon what they did know, which was key to what we now know.
I don't believe Jesus' message to be a quaint little story any more than I believe that of the life of Buddha or Socrates. All three were great, wise men. Far wiser than I could possibly hope to be, but wisdom does not make them divine.
Jesus' message would not have carried the weight it did during his time if he was just a man. Divinity (as with Buddha, though he wasn't truly claiming divinity) gave it a weight and staying power in his time that wisdom rarely could alone. The question you should ask yourself is this. What's more important, Jesus' unquestioned revolutionary message of compassion, humility and forgiveness? Or his status as God/Son of God? Many 'Good Christians' would argue for the latter... Personally, I think they missed the point.
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 23, 2007 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the difference
There is absolutely zero contemporary record of Jesus. There is just no proof he even existed.
by Galt on Oct 23, 2007 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 24, 2007 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One other thing...
what he said was not a logical fallacy.
"because some A are B, it's possible (or perhaps likely) that other A are B" is much closer to what he actually said.
---------------------------------
Look at it this way. If you put a witness to some great event, be it a crime or a miracle on the stand and it turns out that under oath they lie and you know and can show that they lie or are otherwise clearly wrong, how do you trust the rest of their testimony? Simply put... you can't. Their integrity has been compromised, everything they say is now not only in question, but highly suspect.
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 23, 2007 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
that's why i had to get involved in the argument: far from being a "logical fallacy," what you said is a highly rational assumption.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 24, 2007 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
Catholic saints need a miracle to be canonized. It is an extremely rigorous process, and scientists are the ones who make the call on whether it is to be considered a miracle or not. Sure, there is no guarantee that science won't find an explanation later, but some of the cases are pretty extreme.
Go read the scientific case records of the canonization miracles, or miracles at Lourdes, or the miracles of Padre Pio or Lanciano and then see what you think.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 24, 2007 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no bearing?
would you care to explain a miracle that has undergone examination by modern science and come out widely scientifically accepted as "miraculous," and what process they used?
because the point is that "science" during biblical times is NOT science.
furthermore, many "miracles" have been shown not just to have "an explanation later," but to be literally fictitious -- the people didn't exist, or couldn't have been in that area of the world, or the events couldn't have proceeded anything like they did. THIS, in turn, makes one question whether the people who wrote the bible were even documenting real events in other scenarios. that's different than "misunderstanding" the "cause" of something, and it certainly reflects how you should view the rest of the stories those authors "document."
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 24, 2007 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Specific cases
Now, specifically, yes, if a certain group of scientists found something to be a miracle that, upon examination by others, was found obviously not to be a miracle, I would question their credentials, yes, of course.
The fact is, it takes just as much faith, if not more, to believe that ALL miracles have a natural explanation, as it does to believe that some are, in fact, caused by God.
Here is just one example of a miracle and the studies carried out on it:
http://childrenoftheeucharist-waf.org/html/miraculous_stories/miraculous_stories_lanciano_E.htm
Here is an example of the process that the Church takes to recognize/reject miraculous cures (most are rejected by the way):
http://www.lourdes-france.org/index.php?goto_centre=ru&contexte=en&id=491&id_rubrique=48 8
As far as people dying for Jesus in the 1st Century, let's just take the Apostles as an example. All of them forfeited their lives (except John who was imprisoned) because they refused to recant their story of Jesus being resurrected. This is the same group of guys who hid out of fear after Jesus had died. Now, certainly there are other POSSIBLE explanations, but it certainly wouldn't be unreasonable to think that maybe Jesus really was resurrected. It certainly should have been easy for someone to produce the body of Jesus and disprove all of the nonsense if indeed the story was made up, and these Apostles (and other witnesses) for some unknown reason, were all willing to die for it anyway.
And....getting back to something mentioned earlier...Jesus certainly claimed to be divine. The Jews understood him as making that claim, which is why they tried to push him off a cliff, and what ultimately got him crucified. A guy that claims to be divine isn't a "good man" as you say. He is either telling the truth, or he is a liar or a lunatic.
Now, you are implying that some miracles of the Bible have been PROVEN not to have taken place. Care to follow up on that with specifics? I'm not even sure how one would go about disproving an event that took place 2000-5000 years ago, but I'm ready to hear about it.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 24, 2007 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Source
Now, if you want to talk about the Catholic Church, as you're implying, then there is, frankly, no basis for believing the claims of the Catholic Church due to the extremely questionable ethics and decisions of the Church, both in the past and the present. Regardless of what the Church may have stood for at one point, it is a political organization which sits upon a massive treasury (the St Peters Gem 'Museum' is one of the most faith shaking things you could ever see, to look at the size and value of those jewels and consider the good that could be done with what they're worth and they're sitting there in a room as some sort of proof of the Church's wealth and power) and which has an active policy of protecting themselves over their parishioners (see the pedophile priest scandals, the protection of those priests and the protections of the protectors).
Then you've got the church's non-involvement in the slave trade, the Holocaust, the Crusades, Inquisition, indulgences, inconsistencies on abortion policy, etc.
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 24, 2007 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Too much
Sure, there were some people doing very bad things in the Church during the recent and distant past. Do you really think this invalidates the claims of the Church? If so, I guess the Church was already invalidated at the moment Judas the Apostle betrayed Jesus. So unless God suspends free will, and prevents anyone in the Church from committing any bad sins, the Church and God cannot be true....oooooooook.
The beautiful art and gems the Vatican has are just that, beautiful. The museums are a way to make that beauty accessible to all. Catholicism is a religion of beauty, and if you think the Church is supposed to sell every last thing of value to private parties and give it to the poor, well, I simply disagree, but you are entitled to your opinion.
For your info, yes, there were bad things during the Crusades, but it was on balance a defensive war, and we'd probably all be facing Mecca 3 times a day right now if they were never fought. For you to put any blame on the Church for the Holocaust simply shows that you have not done your research and are inclined to believe any anti-Catholic charge that is thrown out there. So I'll leave it there for now.
This has been an interesting debate, though, and I appreciate the relatively respectful tone of it.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 24, 2007 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"rigorous"
When the catholic church can show me a "miracle" where a severed limb grows back, then I'll agree in miracles. When a disease goes into remission, it's no miracle.
by Galt on Oct 24, 2007 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Incentive
To proclaim something as a miracle when it obviously isn't would damage the credentials of the Church much more than not claiming a miracle at all, so they are quite careful and rigorous about the process.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 24, 2007 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So far as miracles go...
I believe another miracle is required for beatification (the step before sainthood) but I am not entirely sure of that.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 24, 2007 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Miracle
I challenge anyone to show me scientifically verified evidence of anything that could be considered a "miracle" (something that can't be explained by the laws of nature)
by GregJP on Oct 24, 2007 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look earlier in the thread
by BaseballBrain on Oct 24, 2007 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
infallible means INFALLIBLE
If you admit that the book is written by people, not some supreme being, and is therefore fallible, then the entire thing should logically be doubted. When you admit that x portion of the book is obviously a manmade fabrication then how can you honestly fool yourself into believing that other portions of it are divine?
There is obviously no way to tell if there is a Creator or not. What is an absolute certainty is that the Bible is a manmade work of fiction.
by Galt on Oct 23, 2007 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bible
Not too many Christians think God dictated it to us or something like that. We are well aware it was written by men, but also inspired by God.
You still have to understand the type of literature the individual book was intended as, though - they are not all the same.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 24, 2007 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually
Second. Sadly, the majority of the country believes in the literal, word-for-word intepretation of the bible.
There have been numerous studies about this, but here's the most recent one:
http://www.barna.org/FlexPage.aspx?Page=BarnaUpdateNarrow&BarnaUpdateID=282
Meaning your "well, it's written by men, so there may be some inconsistencies" is a MINORITY position.
60% of people believe that creation, as described in the Bible is the literal truth. This in spite of the fact that there are clearly two contradictary, paralell versions of creation.
65% of people also believed that Moses parted the Red Sea, in spite of the fact there is no contemporary record or archeological evidence that Moses ever existed, or that the Jews even roamed the desert.
Basically, people are really really gullible.
by Galt on Oct 24, 2007 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Partially agree
The basic truth I take out of there is that God created the universe.
The Moses thing brings up an interesting point though. Do you really think it is likely that there should be independent corroboration of Moses' existence somewhere? The guy lived 4000+ years ago. You might HOPE to find something in the Egyptian records somewhere about it, but I certainly wouldn't expect it. We really have no independent corroboration of ANYONE existing from that long ago that I know of. Maybe a few Pharoahs, since we have their tombs.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 24, 2007 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
perhaps
by So Cal Bob on Oct 24, 2007 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Book Review
by GregJP on Oct 24, 2007 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one man's opinion, eh?
by So Cal Bob on Oct 24, 2007 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sure
I am anything but "ignorant" on religion.
by Galt on Oct 24, 2007 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Other Readings
The God Delusion - Richard Dawkins
by GregJP on Oct 24, 2007 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
been through that phase of life
If you choose to read it, great. If not, it's your choice. Good diologue although we disagree.
by So Cal Bob on Oct 24, 2007 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, me too
It's difficult now to see how anyone can take Dawkins and his ilk seriously. I have agnostic friends who are a lot more persuasive and logical than he is.
Dawkins knows a lot about evolution, but he makes a pitifully poor standard bearer for atheism.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 24, 2007 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
your first line is priceless!
As for Dawkins, I chose to not even respond as I feel exactly as do you.
This entire diary is on a slippery slope and I would rather "bite my toungue" than engage any deeper. This obviously isn't the forum.
by So Cal Bob on Oct 24, 2007 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another thing I forgot
by BaseballBrain on Oct 24, 2007 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
God
It's right up there with people who post about baseball and use the terms momentum, "clutch" hitting, closer "mentality", players with "grit", etc.
The fact that people throughout history believed in all of this drivel is almost excusable, but when educated people in the 21st century still do, it really makes me think that the evolution of our species still has a long, long way to go.
by GregJP on Oct 23, 2007 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rockies all the way
Still sticking with the Rockies.....
by colinadam on Oct 22, 2007 10:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Anytime BOS/NY
by FrozenTed9 on Oct 22, 2007 11:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sure they do
by drjayphd on Oct 22, 2007 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Red Sox in 6
The interesting storyline may be Wakefield pitching at Coors. Does his knuckleball have the same movement there as it does in the lower altitudes? Does BP have some sort of story on this? It would make for an interesting read.
by guru4u on Oct 22, 2007 6:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Question?
How many here have joined a group that is of a different religion. If you are Jewish would you join a Christian group? If you are Christian would you join a Muslim group? etc.? Not only would you but have you???
Because that is what we are talking about with the Rockies. It's so pervasive in their clubhouse etc.
Is it wrong to be a Christian group? Nah, the problem is this:
- They are a baseball team first and foremost
- Players don't have true rights on where they play.
- They are not public with what they are
by pedrophile on Oct 24, 2007 8:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jeff Francis
Now if Jeff is capable of an intelligent comment like that, I'm guessing that he might not just fit in all that well in that clubhouse.
by GregJP on Oct 24, 2007 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Religion
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 24, 2007 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Belief
Would you consider them smart or stupid?
by GregJP on Oct 24, 2007 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Go Pastafarians!
by RVachon on Oct 24, 2007 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
personally....
it would make me think they were odd, and perhaps a bit irrational within certain areas of thinking. but it wouldn't tell me too much about their intelligence.
further, whether someone follows organized religion is even less informative, given how infectious its ideas are.
in all cases, i would disagree with these beliefs, and the way the person evaluates them. and, personally, i'd be less likely to be friends with the person.
but STUPID????
THAT is uninformed.
clearly, you've lived in a limited world, because there are people way, way smarter than you (in ALL fields of academia) who maintain religious belief.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 24, 2007 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stupidity
It's more that it's "socially acceptable" in N. American society.
Not that Presidential candidates are necessarily rocket scientists, but does anybody really believe that the majority of these guys (and gal) seriously believe the drivel they dish out in regard to "faith"
They're trying to get elected, plain and simple.
Now Dubya, I'm not as sure about, he probably really is that stupid.
by GregJP on Oct 24, 2007 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ummmm
you realize that there's a huge revival in religious faith among scientists right now? and they are VERY sincere in their beliefs.
that's not to say: 1) their science INFORMS their faith (it doesn't, nor do they claim it does), or 2) i agree with their beliefs.
but these people are smart. and sincere.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 24, 2007 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Revival
There have been 5 recent books on atheism that were New York Times best sellers.
I sincerely hope that there is a revival in clear thinking in N. American society, rather than the alternative.
by GregJP on Oct 24, 2007 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clear thinking and religion
by coochorama on Oct 24, 2007 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beauty and Symmetry
Man, you really, really need to read you some Richard Dawkins.
The beauty and symmetry argument is very easily explained by evolution.
If you are open minded, read 2 or 3 of the books that Dawkins has written, and I'm willing to bet that your eyes will be opened very wide.
by GregJP on Oct 24, 2007 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dawkins
by coochorama on Oct 24, 2007 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Science/Faith
Science background, raised a Catholic, tried to be open minded............
But you know I spent one summer reading Dawkins, doing a LOT of reading on the internet, and I came out of it 100% unabashedly atheist.
At first it left me really depressed, I'm still struggling with. it a bit, but overall I feel like I'm not living a lie any more.
Just because you really want to believe something is so, it doesn't make it that way. Some people can't function without faith, but I really think it's something that every rationale person has to eventually do. (face reality, and let go of the delusion)
by GregJP on Oct 24, 2007 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Science?
Note: I am completely serious, not trying to be sarcastic or insulting or trying to catch "you" in a fallacy or anything. Just asking a question based on my understanding of the situation.
Further, do you differentiate between religion and god?
by cooper7d7 on Oct 24, 2007 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Semantics
I think the onus is on the "theist" to prove that there is any validity to their belief.
The default position, IMO, is that we are here because of the big bang, evolution etc, and there is not one shred of evidence of any kind of intelligent creator.
I personally don't differentiate between god and religion. IMO, there is no god, and those that belong to religions are just basically very weak people who need to find some "reason" for their existence.
by GregJP on Oct 24, 2007 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously,
Again, just asking a question.
by cooper7d7 on Oct 24, 2007 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Science vs. Religion
by BaseballBrain on Oct 24, 2007 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmmm
by siddfynch on Oct 24, 2007 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you want to know what?
maybe "huge" is an overstatement. i would consider 10% of scientists believing in religion "huge" in comparison. and i'm positive Greg's 99% is well off. but i'm having trouble finding an article online about the supposed revival right now, so i'll keep searching and let you know when i have something giving an accurate number and/or description.
regardless, the idea that "smart" and "religious" are exclusive is pretty uninformed. and i'm saying that as one of the least religious people you'll ever meet.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 24, 2007 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Intelligence
A bit OT, but do you think Bill Clinton is actually religious, or it's just part of his shtick? Whenever I see him being interviewed, I get the impression that he's just playing a role for personal and political gain.
I had some respect for him, but the more I see him recently, the less I feel that way.
by GregJP on Oct 24, 2007 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
the numbers they shrank to? 7% expressed belief in a deity (20.8% doubt or agnosticism). there are more specifics in the article.
here's a 1998 Newsweek article on the issue: http://home.houston.rr.com/apologia/scfndgod.htm
of course, that was 10 years ago -- before the supposed "revival."
there are a lot of science Ph.D's at Stanford i've talked to who say they work with people who are religious. oddly, perhaps, none of the scientists have been religious themselves. but perhaps that's because the subject wouldn't come up if we didn't see eye-to-eye ahead of time on this issue?
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 24, 2007 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the entire point of FSM
Again, this is not an argument that there is no God. That's an entirely and completely unrelated argument. However, that a book written by ignorant humans thousands of years ago holds so much sway over us now is quite depressing.
The Bible is important because it was divinely inspired. God is real because the bible says so. The Bible is right because God created it. We know that God created it, because the Bible says so..... Circular, laughably irrational logic. Huzzah to humanity!
by Galt on Oct 24, 2007 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ego
That there isn't any "reason" why they exist. I think believers are very egotistical and self centered. It's all about "me" God loves "me" because I'm special. Something good happened to "me" because god made a point of it.
Why is it that when something good happens it is god's will, but when there is a terrible tragedy, where was god?
Some times I just feel like pulling a Peter Finch and screaming out my window at the top of my lungs.
by GregJP on Oct 24, 2007 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
i agree: the reason religion is accepted AS COMPARED TO cults/etc is because of it's age alone.
i agree: i find it depressing that such irrational thinking exists in humanity.
but
that doesn't make the acceptance of faith exclusive from intelligence by any stretch. also the acceptance of religion is deeply biologically engrained across many dimensions.
further, viewing "being religious" as opposed to "belief in FSM," as far as being a signal of intelligence is NOT the same. belief in a widely accepted principle is NOT the same social signal as belief in something far from the mainstream and kooky.
for instance, were people "stupid" who believed in Freudian psychology back in the day?
there was no "proof" of Freud's beliefs, yet people found his take on the workings of the psyche compelling, and they became popularly accepted, and taught to the public.
therefore, i would NOT view someone who believed in Freud's teachings (especially during, e.g., the 1960s) the same as i would view someone who believed the mind was actually all about the spirits of goats fighting for supremacy. the latter suggests mental deficits -- because their ability to use their mental facilities to absorb information does not conform with popular theory alone.
don't pretend like you understand and have personally examined all the principles you accept. i know i, for instance, accept a lot of modern physics without the slightest ability to read the research myself. in this sense, i take others word on faith alone.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 24, 2007 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Widely Accepted
Lots of people think that "clutch hitting" is a repeatable skill, but that belief, IMO, is very kooky. :-)
by GregJP on Oct 24, 2007 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it doesn't mean...
but kooky?
kooky suggests something is wrong with your brain for accepting a proposition, and widely accepted beliefs suggest this isn't true.
two more points:
- you are limited by your brain as well. there are PLENTY of things human brains can't understand by their very nature. to plagarize a bit, can a rat ever understand prime numbers? no? OK -- well then surely you accept that there are things beyond human comprehension as well. and that means many of your beliefs (and mine) are "kooky" by your definition as well.
- you also realize that the cognitive psychologists who originally attacked "hot streaks" have actually changed their position. in fact, "believing in hot streaks" is NOT viewed as irrational -- it's simply an adaptive heuristic. for example, if someone makes 8 shots in a row in basketball, it's a useful signal that you SHOULD pass the ball to him, because anyone who can make that many shots in a row is more likely than not to be a good shooter. thus, the belief is far from "kooky."
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 24, 2007 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Streakiness
eg. someone makes 6 free throws in a row, how well they did on the 7th one was no better than what they "normally" did.
Also, "streaky" hitting is not the same as "clutch" hitting.
To me, the FSM is at the exact same place on the kookiness scale as Jesus, Allah, Buddah, et al.
by GregJP on Oct 24, 2007 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
streakiness/clutch/FSM
yes, you read the study correctly.
hitting 6 free-throws in a row doesn't change your likelihood of hitting a 7th, and the belief in "hot-streaks" is an illusion.
but the BELIEF/PERCEPTION of hot-streaks is adaptive, and leads to rational conclusions: if someone hits a lot of free throws in a row, it's a signal that the person is a good shooter. whether we give him the ball because we believe he is "hot" or "good" doesn't matter -- the point is, it leads to a rational result.
this was a realization the authors of the study had years and years after it was initially released. they basically apologized for being so stupid/wrapped up in the numbers to see why the information gleaned from this "irrational belief" actually lead to a rational result.
-----------------------
"streaky" hitting is not the same as "clutch" hitting. do you believe in one but not the other though?
actually, the idea that "clutch hitting" literally doesn't exist isn't supported.
what is supported is that we have NO IDEA who would or wouldn't be clutch, and any attempt to figure out who is or isn't is 99% retrofitting/finding false positives within random distributions of data.
however, there is no evidence that people wouldn't perform differently in pressure situations. to the contrary, any scientific data out there says the opposite.
our only problem is in IDENTIFYING which results are or aren't due to "clutchness." and, as far as DEALING WITH the data, it makes more sense to IGNORE "clutchness," since, given how useless the data is, it leads to no informative results.
the same could be said for "streakiness" -- there may indeed be "hot streaks," but they are so intermixed with "random distribution" that we'd never be able to identify them.
---------------------------
"To me, the FSM is at the exact same place on the kookiness scale as Jesus, Allah, Buddah, et al."
well, first off, at least those other people existed.
but, if you want to treat people who "believe" in all those things as equally kooky, that's your perogative. personally, i would view the person who believes in the FSM to be stranger than the person who believes something that a significant portion of the population does. to each his own, i guess.
and your "own" is to write off the majority of the population. or else to be unbelievably accepting of someone who believes in a FSM. i'm not sure which result i find more unsettling.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 24, 2007 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting Stuff
If a player is "clutch" in a particular year, they tend to revert to career norms in clutch situations in subsequent years.
There are some exceptions to this, but they are rare , and are most likely just outliers.
On a slightly related topic, I think that the performance of a baseball team ebbs and flows much like the distribution of H and T if you flipped a coin 162 times. (assuming a close to 0.500 team)
How the team does in the playoffs is mostly just a random snapshot of a small number of games within that pattern, which pretty well means that luck is the major factor in determine who wins.
Now there are exceptions (such as a team with 2 extremely dominant starters), but in general, you might as well be flipping coins.
I realize, of course, that most people agree with this idea about as much as I agree with "religion" being required for a person to be "moral"
by GregJP on Oct 24, 2007 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
streak
yeah hitting 5 in a row doesn't guarantee hitting the 6th. Any more than missing it means you will miss the next. But ...
If you've played ball I'm sure you realize in practice you may hit 90% and in games probably only 80%. It's not coincidence.
And if you miss 5 in a row chances are you start to think and worry. Trying to make sure you don't miss the next. Instead of just going with the flow you are trying to force something. This throws off your timing.
And when you are on a roll you do it automatically almost like a practice where it's so easy.
by pedrophile on Oct 25, 2007 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
everyone "really disagrees"
here's a copy of the original, though i'm POSITIVE there'll be lots of updates on the concept and/or shortened/popularized versions:
http://www.psych.cornell.edu/sec/pubPeople/tdg1/Gilo.Vallone.Tversky.pdf
"If you've played ball I'm sure you realize in practice you may hit 90% and in games probably only 80%. It's not coincidence."
isn't that because game conditions are tougher?
or are you claiming the defense is as intense, the shots as hard to hit, but, just because you're....looser, i guess.....you hit more shots?
first of all, that claim isn't impossible by any means. to the contrary, psychological factors quite obviously effect physical performance (not even going to go into how obvious that should be). but the times when these factors are "in play" and when they're not is impossible to tell.
impossible to tell statistically. impossible to tell by observers. and impossible to tell by the actors themselves.
if you don't believe this third point, i would challenge you to do a statistically reasonable experiment on yourself.
first, shoot 100 shots and establish your baseline shooting percentage.
over the next 100 shots, predict out loud, before you begin the process of shooting, whether you are going to make the next shot or not.
i have all the confidence in the world you won't do better at predicting than a random distribution around what your shooting percentage should have been. i've forced two friends to do this before, and both finished less than one standard dev BELOW "random guessing of shooting percentage."
basically, though it's possible being loose helps you make shots in some scenarios, for all intents and purposes, you might as well ignore that, because you are woefully inaccurate at telling when you are (or anybody else is) loose. and, statistically, the phenomen doesn't exist, period. even to a mild degree.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 25, 2007 3:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great Post
by GregJP on Oct 25, 2007 7:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
game conditions
I do agree that the individual is not able to predict that much. And I do believe much of a hot or cold streak is just random. But there is of course the psychological effect.
by pedrophile on Oct 25, 2007 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
an answer of sorts
of course, that first explanation is an explanation of how you should VIEW such an event. numerical explanations are simplifications. Billy Hatcher is, of course, a human being, and he was, quite obviously, hitting the ball well in that scenario. so it's POSSIBLE he was "in the groove" -- had his mechanics perfect, was really seeing the ball well, etc. (and also had the good luck not to hit any at'em balls).
but it's also possible he had the good luck to receive a lot of easy-to-hit pitches during that stretch. and (not having seen his series), he could have had a fewer lucky hits during the stretch too.
all in all, it's likely a confluence of all these factors. but, when we look back at the data, it will be literally impossible to tell if he was "hot" or lucky or received good pitches to hit or anything else.
the point of the scientific study of hot streaks is to find predictability -- do the previous ABs inform you what a player will do in his next AB?
the answer is that they don't. either hot streaks don't exist (and there's nothing but random chance), or hot streaks are compounded with too many other factors to properly identify them (remember -- during a "hot streak," you could receive a difficult pitch and/or hit the ball right at someone -- though also remember that hot streaks don't even appear to exist in that they increase the CHANCES you'll get a hit in the next AB).
i hope that answer works for you (and relied sufficiently little on sample size). i'd be happy to try to clarify anything.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 25, 2007 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
examples
Both had excellent seasons. But when watching them they really were relying on slapping the ball or the batting order (more Mueller).
But when they slumped horribly in the playoffs it was considered a bad streak. It was just what their true value was against quality competition.
I believe Figgins was better this post-season and part of that was he is a much better hitter this year. He could have put up better numbers in the playoffs but was unlucky a bit. Well, in the games I saw.
by pedrophile on Oct 25, 2007 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
bjb
Because I'd totally agree with that. But streaks are not about one play. They have infinitessimal bearing on the whole work.
I do believe most streaks are a result of randomness.
But sometimes while playing you realize you are pressing and are able to relax. Or you get some stupid lucky hit and can then relax. Or actually change something mechanically (IMO much more rare than the psych effect). And of course it works the other way.
These of course are talking about breaking out of a slump. But if this is something possible then it means there are slumps and streaks that are not pure random noise. How to measure this isn't really possible, at least not that I can see it.
by pedrophile on Oct 25, 2007 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ps
by pedrophile on Oct 25, 2007 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
happy to discuss
anyway, just looking at Tversky's original paper (realizing, of course, that this issue has been examined many, many times since, all producing the same basic result, but, unless you ask nicely, i'm too lazy to go around looking for the better versions of the paper).....
no, he doesn't just examine the last shot. (i'm guessing you just read the abstract at the top, which suggests he does.)
first off, before discussing the other measures he uses, let me justify why "the last shot" WOULD be sufficient to prove the point:
unless you believe people are LESS likely to hit a shot after making a single shot (or else are higher after missing a single shot), then the group of "shots taken during a hot streak" will include all "last shots made," and thus shooting percentages should be slightly elevated after haven made "the last shot" (even if many of these shots were not during what you call a "true" hot streak)
however, he does indeed look at streaks.
for instance, within the 76ers data, he looks at players having made two and three shots in a row, and finds follow-up shooting percentage unimproved
also, in the 76ers data, he examines the number of "runs" a player has within their shooting data (each "run" being defined as the number of similar outcomes -- hit or miss -- in a row, meaning that MORE runs suggests a more random distribution, and goes against the hypothesis of streak shooting). again, he found no evidence that players shot in streaks, actually discovering more runs than would be expected within a random distribution for 5 the 9 players examined
attempting an EVEN MORE sensitive measure to see if players were OCCASIONALLY hot (basically, testing to see if hot streaks happened "sometimes" but were overwhelmed by other data), they broke all the shots down into non-overlapping sets of four (and did this four times, so that every possible "set" existed). IF people experienced "hot" and "cold" streaks, you'd expect more than the random distribution of high and low performance sets. in fact, there were not, in any of the four tries.
next, they looked at if people had more hot "games" than would be expected by chance, examining fluctuations in shooting percentage within a single night compared to baseline shooting percentage and the predicted random distribution. you've probably already guessed that evidence didn't suggest abnormally hot and cold nights in any surprising distribution.
in the free throw experiment, they also found that, following a "hot" period (making 3 or 4 of last 4 shots), players made no higher a percentage of shots than following a "cold" period (0 or 1 hits in last 4 shots). again, they also found no evidence of fewer "runs" than would be expected. they also created non-overlapping sets, and found no more good or bad sets than would be expected.
finally, quoting Tversky:
"There is another cluster of intuitions about "being hot" that involves predictability rather than sequential dependency. If, on certain occasions, a player can predict a "hit" before taking a shot, he or she may have a justified sense of being "hot" even when the pattern of hits and misses does not stray from chance expectation."
thus, they allowed players AND observers to bet on whether a player would make or miss the next shot (with varyingly high bets based upon the confidence the players/observers had in their bet)
what they found was that bets by both the shooter and observer DID NOT correlate with results. what both bets DID correlate with was the previous shot -- with both consistently believing in the hot hand.
anyway, like i said, this is just one of many experiments. but the results are pretty consistent.
of course, sometimes everything FEELS good when you're shooting -- you're relaxed, mechanically sound, etc.
but, in general, most of what you'll be describing is how it felt WHEN you took the shot, not an ability to predict how you'll feel WHEN you take your next shot. and people end up using hindsight bias to dismiss their "misses" in the middle of what they otherwise believed was a hot streak.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 25, 2007 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm thinking there is a subset within this
And I think the concept that a player suddenly got a hot hand has been fairly debunked here. While the concept of the hot hand sounds cool and all when we think what that actually means it's kind of laughable. Like we suddenly were given a ton of extra talent that magically disappears at some point. And of course the cold hand is similar.
What I'm talking more about is a hot streak (or better yet trend) where a players ability has changed for a period. This would of course be more rare. Ability of course including the psych.
Think of golf as an example. I could be playing excellently. But at some point I may step up to the ball and before I even move the driver I know this ball is going into the woods. And no matter what I do it goes there. This is very repeatable.
Of course golf has a much closer link to the psych in it IMO. But I just wanted to give you an idea of where I'm coming from.
I do agree with the whole body of work. I do think there are legitimate streaks (but not as generally believed) that exist as a very small subset within the tested body of work.
by pedrophile on Oct 25, 2007 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Golf/Tennis
http://thehothand.blogspot.com/
If you read through some of the posts in this site, he does discuss the results of the analysis of tennis data.
I think part of it is that making solid contact with a tennis ball is much more repeatable than making solid contact with a baseball given the difference between a racket and a bat.
by GregJP on Oct 25, 2007 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
So really, FSM is very limited in its scope. "Russell's Teapot" is a better example of your overall point.
by RVachon on Oct 24, 2007 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smart/Stupid
by GregJP on Oct 24, 2007 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Because I spent an hour researching this
GregJP, I will never change your mind regarding Christians, God, Christ or the Bible, but I might be able to plant the tiniest seed of doubt in your mind.
Yome is a Hebrew word in the Bible. It means both literally "a day" and figuratively "an age". Hence, the first days in Genesis could be the first ages.
Source:http://www.accuracyingenesis.com/day.html
2:Peter 3:8 (NLV), "But do not forget this one thing, dear friends: With the Lord a day is like a thousand years, and a thousand years is like a day."
What I have learned: God is omnipotent, omniscient and omnipresent. These are pretty hard concepts to wrap your head around. Take time for example. We view time as a linear line, but from what I understand God is with us in the past, present and future, simultaneously. As I understand it, the Bible seems to say that God even created time.
The Bible is written for every person in every age. There is no person on earth who can reveal anything more than a small amount of knowledge in it to you because it is written for everyone, INDIVIDUALLY. Passages that meant one thing to you at a certain time may have a varied intent for you at a different time. That's why they call it the living Word.
As for Christians being fools, well, I am. I admit it.
1: Cor 1:27 (New American Standard) ..."but God has chosen the foolish things of the world to shame the wise, and God has chosen the weak things of the world to shame the things which are strong."...
As for Christians being weak, lets face it, everyone is weak, we just think we're strong. We think that until we get cancer, or our mother gets alzheimer's, or our brothe commits suicide, or..
Goodness, you're from Edmonton, I thought you'd know all this stuff.
by Yoda on Oct 25, 2007 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bible
Can you humor me for a minute. Please watch this video (ignore the fact that Penn is a bit of a pompous dick)
Once you are finished, could you please explain to me where Penn, Teller, and guest are in error.
by GregJP on Oct 25, 2007 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only if
http://www.darwinismrefuted.com/molecular_biology.html
Just follow the >> at the bottom of the page. It will take you less time to read the approx 10 pages than it takes me to listen to Penn and Teller and their assorted (though unnamed) "experts".
I really didn't want to get into a argument about what I believe and why, but I guess I threw the gauntlet down about you being from Edmonton, so here goes.
To begin at the end, the quote is "Smart people are very good at rationalizing the things they come to believe for non-smart reasons." Well, I guess that makes us not very smart after all. LOL.
On the other hand, if you have a superficial knowledge about a complex subject, and you try to pass that off as "knowledge" without doing the homework, that's disrespectful. See, Penn isn't the only pompous guy around.
Start of the vid, the guest says that the Bible says Adam and Eve were created at the same time according to Chapt 1 and created seperately according to Chapt 2, or at least I think he is saying that, he's a little unclear as to where he thinks the 2 versions are contradictory.
Genesis 1:27 "And God created man in His own image, in the image of God he created him; male and female he created them." It really doesn't say he created them at the same time. Minor point, but seeing as it's at the start of the vid it kinda got my heels dug in.
Archeological evidence? As far as I've read, there is generally never too much stuff available about the general populace, much less the slaves, whether it's Mayan, Egyptian, Chinese, what have you. If you can find something about slaves in Egypt at that time, please let me know. Anyway, do you think it's reasonable to assume that, in the world at that time, when slavery was accepted (even more than today) and one huge stone monument after another was being raised in Egypt (the local super-power) and you needed this huge manpower resource to do it, and the Jews were right next door, that Egypt wouldn't use Jewish slaves? And does Penn really believe that there are 1,000,s of trained archeologists combing the Sinai sand for clues that a primitive tribe of nomads was wandering around for 40 years, thousands of years ago? It was only fairly recently established that King David's kingdom was actually a Kingdom with a capital K, and you're dealing with actual buildings.
"Red sea, Reed sea?" Does this guest believe that the Hebrew word for Red and Reed is the same word? That one I don't really want to look up.
Miracles in the Bible. Sorry, on this one you believe or you don't believe. The Bible states in many places that you have to take the first step in faith and faith alone, and that the rest is revealed to you in God's time. Personally, why do I believe in miracles? Because they have happened to me. Do I believe that there should be all kinds of evidence showing that there was a flood, and that the Red sea was parted and so forth? No. If you believe in an omnipotent God, you believe that he can remove any clues He wants. Why? See the first part of this paragraph.
Other people who claimed to be messiahs at the time beside Christ? Hardly a shocker. The Bible mentions them, and names them. What's Penn's point?
The Laws. If you talk to a Biblical scholar, this is what he will say about them. A rigid, harsh all-encompassing set of rules devised to keep a small, select group of people functioning as a social unit through slavery, famine, war and just about every other calamity you could imagine in the primitive world and have them still retain their cultural and religious identity. I guess "you broke this rule and you're going to have a quiet time!" just didn't cut it back then.
OK, lets keep this brief, LOL. Morality. Now Penn understands there is 2 parts to the Bible right? The first part we basically covered, and the second part is where Jesus comes to earth and says that no one can possible follow all the law. In fact, he breaks the law himself according to the church elders by working (healing a person, in this case) on the sabbath. The law thing is kinda complicated to me,anyway. He says BY FAR the two most important things in the world are: love God with everything you have, strength, heart and mind, and love your neighbour as much as you love yourself.
So when Penn says don't use this book for a moral guide, I can only refer to a scripture about love. (This is tough because there are 2 1/2 pages of triple columns in my bible index that have quote references to love but...)
! Corinthians 13:4-7 Love is patient, love is kind. It does not envy, it does not boast, it is not proud. It is not rude, it is not self-seeking. It is not easily angered, it keeps no record of wrongs. Love does not delight in evil, but it rejoices in truth, always hopes, alway perseveres."
by Yoda on Oct 25, 2007 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Miracles
I stopped reading at that point.
by GregJP on Oct 25, 2007 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i stopped reading....
sorry, Yoda, but you know how you feel about people writing about religion who clearly have no education in what it's actually saying?
well, that's what that website was to science: offensively misinformed, horribly off-topic and thoroughly unconvincing.
i actually feel disturbed that someone who has so little science background (or else so thoroughly missed what was going on when they were receiving an education) would feel confident enough to write a website about the subject. some people have no shame.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 25, 2007 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
See, my science background is limited
by Yoda on Oct 26, 2007 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, forget reading that.
by Yoda on Oct 26, 2007 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hey.....i'll definitely....
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 26, 2007 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK....
second, before i start, i want to give a disclaimer: i am NOT a molecular biologist, nor have i spent any particular amount of time studying evolution. therefore, my answers aren't going to be perfect by a long shot. but i still know a lot of the thought behind this stuff (and have at least the backbone of an education in these fields), so i can give a shot at explaining where these authors went wrong.
i guess i'll start with answers to your questions, then discuss some excerpts from the linked website to apply some of the general ideas discussed in my answers.
------------------------
"Are amino acids required to produce proteins?"
Definitionally, yes. A protein is a molecule comprised of a large number of amino acids joined by peptide bonds.
------------------------
"How high are the probabilities (or improbabilities) for amino acids to combine to produce proteins spontaneously? I assume that proteins are necessary for cell structure, therefore, how high are the probabilities for proteins to spontaneously combine to form a simple cell?"
I can't give you a number, but I can tell you that the numbers reported on that website are woefully inaccurate for two big reasons: 1) they assume a singular end-product must be reached, which distorts their calculation beyond repair, 2) they grossly exaggerate the importance of exactitude within the order/type/etc of each amino acid. i'm going to discuss each of these in detail, separately, below, because both concepts are so important to where their calculations became inapplicable.
---------------------------------
Examining the first point, there is a huge irony in their calculation, which is that it revolves around an assumption that only someone who believed in intelligent design would make: the proper calculation to make for "whether evolution could have occurred" is to calculate the odds of the spontaneous generation of the proteins that actually DO exist.
What am i getting at?
The idea of evolution is that those iterations of chemicals which reproduce themselves best will, definitionally, be the ones that continue on. Intuitively, the environment will "decide" which chemicals/compounds/cells/organisms/etc whether a certain iteration is "fit" to "survive."
These authors make an implicit assumption about what is needed to "survive" -- namely, the specific proteins that we are made of are the ONLY proteins that allow survival. But this is false at many, many levels. Let's look at a few of the ways in which this assumption is indefensible.
First, we can look at our own species. Somehow, the authors don't realize a fact about that the human population, as it currently lives, breathes and reproduces, that absolutely everybody knows: There is great diversity in proteins across the species. Surely, you're aware of this already -- it's the basis of inheritance (getting green eyes from your mom, balding from your grandfather, etc, etc).
Why is this important? Well, if you're going to claim we "need" specific proteins -- rather than a RANGE of potential proteins -- to survive, then it doesn't make much sense for there to be five or six types of proteins coding for specific types of dopamine receptors or calcium channels or hair pigments or nearly everything else. The fact that we are actually allowed a range of proteins loosens up the calculations significantly.
But let's not stop at humans -- what about all other species? Simply put, there are many, many ways of solving some of the environment's obstacles. Giving an example at the organ level (because speaking in proteins is too abstracted from what I'm talking about, though those examples abound as well), examine the problem of vision. for any organism capable of movement, visuo-sensory information is hugely important to survival, so the development of some photon-detecting device is critical. Interestingly, the types of eyes that exist in nature vary tremendously across species, from the "human" eye, to the compound eyes of arthropods, to the omatidia of horseshoe crabs, to the ocelli of snails, to the stemmata of caterpillars.
The point? A simple yet complex problem -- light detection -- can be solved in multiple ways. Similarly, the supposed "solutions" the human proteome has offered to "surviving the environment" is far from the lone solution to the problem.
The important takehome point from all of this is the abstraction to be gained from it, because that's where their numbers REALLY fall apart. The real message is that the species could have evolved in millions of ways. Indeed, the "construction" of humans is deeply flawed (which is why many scientists get paid -- to "fix" some of the flaws in the body!) , but it is the result of random events, constrained by biochemical mechanisms and evolutionary forces, built over billions of years so that certain "paths not taken" became forever closed off to the entry of life.
Theoretically, however, there are MANY other possible paths by which "living organisms" (defined however you want to define it, but, to leave open the broadest number of "potential pathways," we can say merely defined by the ability to reproduce, meaning this "life" needn't even be carbon-based) could survive to create similarly constructed progeny (the basis of evolution).
Once we realize that the "chances of evolution" require only that SOME path was taken that created life, and not a SINGULAR path that describes precisely what DID HAPPEN, you realize the probabilities given in this paper are meaningless. They do indeed describe SOMETHING: the probability that, for example, any particular protein that does exist WILL exist. But that doesn't describe what is needed for evolution.
-------------------
On to the second point: The authors exaggerate the degree to which exactitude in amino acid sequence is necessary for proteins.
Let's look at these two quotes from the author:
"The crucial point is this. The absence, addition, or replacement of a single amino acid in the structure of a protein causes the protein to become a useless molecular heap."
"Of all of these possible sequences, only one forms the desired protein molecule. The rest of them are amino-acid chains that are either totally useless, or else potentially harmful to living things. "
These two statements are simply false.
First of all, in most proteins, there are only a few "key" cites where the action takes place. The rest of the amino acids provide stucture for the protein. Though the same basic number of amino acids must be present, and there are many places within the structure that changes would render the protein useless (or else EVOLUTIONARILY ADAPTIVE in rare examples, something which the authors don't mention as an alternative in the second quote, for obvious reasons), it is also true that major section of a protein are literally irrelevant, other than that they be filled in with SOME amino acid, so as to provide length in the creation ultimate creation of the protein's tertiary structure.
Second, EVEN WITHIN CRITICAL SITES, it is often true that amino acids with similar properties (similar polarity, similar sterics, similar functional groups that can create similar bonds, etc.) can be substituted with the "normal" amino acid.
Often, these substitutions occur without any noticeable effect to performance of the protein whatsoever. Other times, these differences account for the variation across a species, as discussed above (for instance, the difference in D4 dopamine receptors that is correlated with varying levels of "risk-seeking" behavior, a pop-culturally famous example).
In fact, scientists manipulate amino acid sequences in laboratory settings as a living: transgenic animals are based on the fact that we can interchange critical region of a protein with a new series of amino acids, and the animal will live at least long enough to observe the differences in behavior.
Basically, as stated in my first bulletpoint, the attempt to calculate a probability here for "the chances of life" is probably hopeless and pointless. BUT, even if you were, the number these authors calculated is monumentally exaggerated by a false assertion about the specificity by which each protein needs to be created. If we allow for greater freedom in the calculation, that probability increases tremendously.
---------------------------------
"Have any of these two conditions between artificially produced in a lab or have they been observed in a lab?"
Spontaneous production of life? Hell no.
Then again, it took billions of years of random trials before multi-celled organisms emerged, so I think you're a little impatient if you think 40 years of research should have produced results already.
The creation of a cell is not as complicated as these authors make it sound. We have created many elements of a cell on our own, and used machinery already in a cell to do the rest of the work. We have synthesized individual pieces on our own all the time.
As best I can tell, the authors are saying, "Unless we recreate evolution in a single experiment, it can't have happened," but this makes no sense.
As the authors discuss at LENGTH while DISCOUNTING experiments WHICH HAVE created the beginnings of "spontaneous" proteins, the environment under which "life" began was drastically different than the one today. Though we're making rough attempts to mimic it in the laboratory, surely we're missing tons of critical elements of the conditions on Earth 4 billion years ago. If the authors discount the CREATION of amino acids under inexact conditions, surely they too realize that it would be futile to EXPECT the creation of amino acids UNLESS we DO create the correct conditions.
Furthermore, as stated above, the authors are trying to convince you that our inability to mimic several billion years of evolution over a 40-year period (a period during which, mind you, we are STILL in what could be considered an infancy) is PROOF that we will never be able to create these conditions. This is utterly absurd.
Actually, the authors are guilty of this line of reasoning throughout. Take the headlines to one of their pages: "DNA Cannot be Explained by Non-design." On this page, they give SCIENTIST'S complaints about the failures of current theory to give a fully satisfactory picture of how DNA evolved. The authors want to use this as evidence that, since we currently have no explanation of all the fine points in DNA evolution, we must, by default resort to non-design.
The first error in this logic is, of course, that it assumes "design" a default, without giving any evidence whatsoever that "design" DOES explain DNA.
More importantly, it assumes we will NEVER have an explanation of these current puzzles. After 40 years of research. Really?????
There are so, so many things we have studied for much longer than 40 years -- even really simple questions. Surely these authors don't propose we stop research on all open issues today and proclaim that "science has no answer to the cause of autism, or the cure for cancer, or how it is Prozac cures depression -- henceforth, all answers should be attributed to the unattributable."
More generally, I found the article quite odd for quoting so many so-called "evolutionists." The authors used this as a sort of "caught you guys slipping up!" technique, quoting them for things they've said about improbabalistic events, or pointing out discrepancy between competing theories, etc.
However, all of those quite-intelligent and extremely-well-versed-in-their-fields people is STILL a proponent of evolution. Isn't this ODD? That THEY would point out that something is improbable, yet STILL stick with the theory.
To me, this makes two points:
- Many of these quotes are taken out of context. Or, I would guess, many times right BEFORE the context where the scientist goes on to make a hypothesis about how some of these improbabilities and/or contradictions might be resolved. Obviously, the authors didn't like the answers these scientists gave, but it's pretty disingenuous to quote them in this manner as if they're SUPPORTING your assertion that the problems are intractable when, in fact, these individuals DO NOT believe that.
- Far from being intractable, these are the very problems scientists are currently working on. Unlike the slightly-conspiracy-theory-ish tone of this article, scientists actually LOVE to figure out what hasn't been figured out already. That's how you get famous as a scientist. Making a ground-breaking discovery to "disprove" evolution would be ENORMOUS for a scientist's career. But such "disproof" doesn't exist.
Actually, I'm still baffled by how the authors resolve their theories about what the evolutionists they quote are motivated by. These evolutionists: 1) really know what they're talking about within their fields, 2) have every incentive to find the truth, evidenced by their even-handed criticism, and 3) still believe in evolution. Yet the authors believe, what???? That these evolutionists have an agenda, yet let slip "the truth" in moments of weakness, then try to "cover up" their slip-ups by proposing more flawed theories, that someone these authors (and not well-trained scientists) are able to see through? Doesn't make much sense to me.
---------------------------------
Now to examine a few points the authors make, just to discuss a few more points on the subject, and also to show a little application of these ideas.
"Thus, the first cell on earth was necessarily a complete cell possessing all the required organelles and functions, and this definitely means that this cell had to have been created."
This just isn't true. "Irreducible complexity" has no teeth. There is no reason smaller pieces of a cell couldn't have been adaptive separately. The combination of these pieces to CREATE a cell was simply a superiorly-reproducing machine, and thus it spread more quickly.
Further, we can only hypothesize what the first cells did actually contain (f.y.i., they were NOT complete, according to an evolutionary account). The number of changes that have occurred within cells over time are doubtlessly tremendous. And they CERTAINLY adapted dramatically right around the time when they were first formed -- the creation of a cell from all its component parts quite obviously provided an environment where all kinds of new and different proteins would be more or less adaptive.
---------------------------
"Evolutionists claim that molecular evolution took place over a very long period of time and that this made the impossible possible."
True. But these authors also ignore the other point about early evolution, which is that it occurred in extremely rapidly reproducing single-celled organisms. The number of "trials," and thus, the chances for potentially positive mutations, is immense.
Of course, this refers to a point past the formation of the first cell. BEFORE the creation of a cell, we're talking about the time it takes for certain chemical reactions to take place. Again, I think we're talking about a LOT of permutations.
And, yes, there is a trial-and-error mechanism, which the authors deny. There is certainly NOT "irreducible complexity" in an amino acid chain, right?
Well, only chains that create other adaptive chains will survive.
When a random reaction occurs that allows for a better chain to exist, then that one reproduces more.
The next step will only occur when an even better chain comes along.
The point at which chains can start connecting is when some fortuitous combination of chains creates a more fit combination of chemicals.
The authors again assume that what these chemicals had to create was "us." Instead, "we" are created within the framework of how chemicals came together. Quite obviously, combinations of structure that were able to survive/reproduce are the only ones that DID survive/reproduce. But our bodies are quite limited by how these chains DID decide to randomly link up, and the limited options those chains had for what step was feasible to take next and still survive.
---------------------------
"If even a single right-handed amino acid gets attached to the structure of a protein, the protein is rendered useless....The question of how proteins can pick out only the left-handed ones from among all amino acids, and how not even a single right-handed amino acid gets involved in the life process, is a problem that still baffles evolutionists. Such a specific and conscious selection constitutes one of the greatest impasses facing the theory of evolution."
This is drivel. It's entirely irrelevant. Here's why:
IF, at the time we evolved, there WERE right-handed amino acids creating the protein backbone, they would NOT be "rendered useless."
There is nothing "magical" about left-handed AAs. They are simply the type of AA that we evolved with. GIVEN that we evolved around protein structurally based upon left-handed AAs, it is unsurprising that their inclusion in a protein would be deleterious to function. This point is merely a reiteration of the earlier exaggeration that substitution of amino acids leads to protein malfunction.
Let's pretend, now, that right-handed AAs WERE involved in our evolutionary process. Would this create any intractable problems? None that I know of. Structure of proteins would simply have to be made from different sequences of amino acids in order to create the same result. We could also create NEW structures, having new options for which amino acids we can use.
An analogy to see what I'm getting at: Pretend earth had no oxygen but instead was covered in carbon monoxide gas. Would life survive? Not as we know it: Our bodies are built to run on oxygen. But what if we'd EVOLVED with carbon monoxide? Here, we might have an entirely different circulatory system, and a different means for energy production, that could use CO as fuel. There's no reason a machine couldn't be built to operate that way; it's just the one we've already built can't do it. Similarly, it's not surprising you can't substitute RH AAs for LH AAs and not expect it to be catastrophic (you ARE changing the tertiary structure of a protein much, much more than you would be with any other LH AA substitution).
These authors want to ask HOW DO WE select just LH AAs, but that question of how is unnecessary, since we'd be fine if there were RH AAs. An interesting question is how did it happen originally, of which their are many relatively unestablished theories (some positing that this selection was entirely random, others taking guesses as to why). Of course, how it CONTINUES to happen isn't a question for anybody: Our DNA specifies it.
---------------------
"Yet there is no natural selection mechanism which can identify that a right-handed amino acid has been added to the sequence and recognize that it must therefore be removed from the chain."
This is: 1) misleading, and 2) untrue even if it weren't.
It's misleading, because it discusses "natural selection mechanisms" when I think it actually means to be discussing "mechanisms within the body." Namely, are there enzymes that would tell you if there were a RH AA within the protein? The answer is, yes, and they will stop production/make corrections/etc if there is one.
Second, RH AAs should never be randomly added to a protein chain, since our body doesn't specify for them. That's like saying, "Our body could randomly add a fluorine atom when it means to add an amino acid." RH AAs are not "the same but a little bit different" from LH AAs. They are completely different chemicals. Furthermore, they aren't naturally produced by our bodies. So how would an RH AA end up in a protein chain any more than every other chemical on the planet capable of bonding with amino acids?
Then we examine the second point: that there's no evolutionary mechanism. Well, of course there is -- these authors have totally contradicted themselves.
One minute ago, they said having RH AAs causes instant death. Now they're saying that evolutionary forces wouldn't create mechanisms to AVOID the incorporation of RH AAs?????? These guys clearly don't know the first thing about evolution.
If something kills an organism instantly (namely, before reproductive age), there is TREMENDOUS evolutionary pressure that preserves only those species which DON'T do that thing.
To be specific, if accidental incorporation of RH AAs into 10% of proteins causes an animal to only make it to reproductive age 50% of the time, a mutation in an enzyme of that animal which better prevents against these accidents will have a HUGE "fitness" advantage.
If these authors wanted to claim that "no evolutionary mechanism existed," they would have to show that it had ABSOLUTELY ZERO EFFECT for an RH AA to be incorporated into a protein. At this point, it would be mere coincidence that chains were entirely made of LH AAs, and we would question how such a bizarre event occurred, given that it would be completely by chance and unregulated. But the authors argue, quite to the contrary, that this regulation is necessary for survival. They completely shot themselves in the foot, here.
(Alternatively, the authors could have argued that no mechanism exists by which the body actively avoids incorporation of RH AAs, and thus evolution couldn't be acting on anything. But this is untrue.)
---------------------------
"That is, when we consider a protein made up of 400 amino acids, the probability of all amino acids combining among themselves with only peptide bonds is 1 in 2399."
The thing is, this isn't random. Machinery exists that ENSURES peptide bonding inside cells, meaning this shouldn't be a probability calculation at all.
Of course, I assume they're mainly discussing bonding in the pre-cellular environment. The thing is, we have only slight clues the chemical structure of proteins back then was, or how long these protein had to be before forming the basic organelles of a cell which would allow for cooperative enzymes/etc to ensure proper bonding.
----------------------
Anyway, this post is already way too long, and I'm pretty exhausted. But let me know if you have any questions, responses, etc, or if there's anything you'd specifically like me to address.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 27, 2007 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BJB For Sainthood
Matt
PS. Don't worry about that thing about needing to be dead first. If you keep drinking like you did on your birthday, those RH AA will get you and natural selection will run it's course in due time. :-D
by WayneCampbell05 on Oct 28, 2007 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for the read
by pedrophile on Oct 28, 2007 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed
by Yoda on Oct 28, 2007 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
glad to have the discussion
anyway, now that i'm better rested, i thought i'd expand on the last point i was making a little, simply because i trailed off out of exhaustion before i'd really gotten the idea onto the page.
so the authors were talking about how amino acids could consistently create peptide bonds exclusively in a pre-cellular environment when there are so many other types of bonds they can make.
i would argue, alternatively, that it may not have been important that they create peptide bonds exclusively, and that it's perfectly plausible that the "peptide-bond-only" arrangement for amino acid chains was an adaptation that increased fitness only after these chains had become part of the first cell (remembering that, once you have a cell, enzymes exist that make the exclusive peptide bonds for you).
i'll give you an example of this line of logic with organism level evolution (rather than molecular-level) since it'll be easier to see what i'm talking about. i'll use another example of visual evolution, since this example is, incidentally, one of my favorite vestigial functions that evidences the truth in our evolution from water-born creatures.
if you look at which wavelengths of light penetrate water, you'll find that the visible spectrum (i.e., 380 nm to 780 nm) passes through water tremendously better than any adjacent wavelength.
otherwise, there is nothing "special" about those wavelengths of light. we could detect our environment as well if we saw ultraviolet light and NOT "visible" light, or any other range of vision.
however, for the evolution of a creature in water, there will be no pressure selecting for animals which detect other wavelengths, since these wavelengths might as well not exist to then -- it will not increase their fitness (i.e., ability to survive/reproduce massively) if they can or can't. (in fact, if the more "thorough" system had higher metabolic costs, it would DECREASE fitness.)
later on, creatures move out of the water. some (like humans) never had selective pressure to see all the new wavelengths of light available to them. others (like hummingbirds, who see ultraviolet colors that enable them to tell when a flower is pollinating) will have an advantage if they can perform this new skill, so iterations of these creatures that had evolved the hardware necessary to do this reproduced more successfully.
what's the point to all this? only within the new environment was there "pressure" to pick up a now-important trait.
taking it back to amino acid sequencing, we have the question of peptide bonds, which we know today are the exclusive types of bonds used in a cell.
but do we know the first "pseudo-proteins" -- the ones that ultimately formed the first cell -- were exclusively peptide-bonded?
given how unadapted the first version of a cell surely was, it's certainly easy to imagine that the "proteins" making it up were more haphazardly constructed than those today.
basically, this theory rests on three assumptions:
- it is possible for amino acids chains NOT inside a cell to reproduce successfully even if not exclusively peptide-bonded. i see no reason why this shouldn't be true.
- a cell constructed with non-peptide-bonded chains will be more evolutionarily fit than non-peptide-bonded chains NOT working symbiotically inside a cell. this should almost certainly be true, right? a poor cell is still better than a bunch of poor chains, each working on their own. that's the thing -- you don't have to reach perfection on the first try: you just have to be better than the things you're competing with, the things that may ultimately be your predecessors.
- once inside a cellular environment, it is better if all the proteins are constructed uniformly; therefore, cells that find a way to do this will be the most fit. here, the authors of the paper wouldn't hesitate to agree.
i have no idea whether molecular biologists would accept this hypothesis (or perhaps actually already do). but i do know that they would say that we know very little about what the origins of life looked like, and would be open to many ideas about how it might have differed from what we're looking at as life today.
ironically, the authors in this paper believe we DO know a lot about what life hypothetically looked like 4 billion years. and, BECAUSE they "know" this, they use this singular vision to determine whether something could or couldn't have happened. since the majority of the evidence throughout time suggests it DID happen, we need to figure out what set of circumstances existed that did make the formation of amino acid chains feasible, and that involves expanding our vision of how things might have been different at the beginnings of the earth.
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 28, 2007 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Miracles
I gave a linked example farther above in the thread with multiple scientific studies supporting it, including studies by the WHO. There are plenty of others like it. No one ever bothered to comment after that.
Is it proof? No, I'm sure a mind dedicated to disbelieving in miracles can think of a complicated hoax to explain it. However, for some of us, we have experienced our own little miracles, so we obviously believe others can happen as well. Not that one must have experienced a miracle in order to have faith - far from it - but I'm sure it helps.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 26, 2007 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Miracles
by GregJP on Oct 26, 2007 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
One day I was self-installing a new car door on my Cutlass Ciera which had been in a crash. This was the front passenger door. I took the old door off and retrieved the screws with which to put in the new door. I had started to put the new door on, and had it screwed on except for the last screw. When I tried to screw the last one on, it somehow fell into a space in the car body between the front of the door and the wheel area, and though I could make it move around slightly in that space with a long thin screwdriver, I couldn't get it out.
I was upset about it for reasons I now can't fully remember. I know I had rented one of those dealies that put extreme force on the car (to straighten it out after the crash) and I wanted to finish the job so I could return that item. Also, I figured that a replacement screw would cost a little money and that was something we didn't really have at the time.
I basically went in and vented at my wife. She said that I should ask St. Anthony to intercede for me. I said that the screw wasn't lost (for Catholics, St. Anthony is considered the go-to guy for intercession to find lost items) - I just couldn't retrieve it. She said, "well, just pray anyway". I was still mad, but I thought it couldn't hurt, to help calm me down if nothing else.
A little later, I went out to put my tools away and disengage the thing that was generating all the force. The screw was sitting on the front passenger seat right next to the screwdriver. There was no longer anything moving around in the space in the car body when I curiously poked my screwdriver in.
Probably one of the stranger miracles one would imagine, but that's the one I got. I'm sure there must be others here would be willing to share things as well.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 26, 2007 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Screw
Strange dude, that god fellow.
by GregJP on Oct 26, 2007 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Understandable reaction
At the time, I took it as a gift which helped me to have more faith. I don't know why it happened. I didn't even particularly have much faith that it would happen.
Anyway, what you said is quite concrete to me, as my wife, who I spoke of in that last post, actually did die of melanoma cancer a few years after that incident. Why I got a screw retrieved and not her healed, I certainly don't understand. But I trust that God knows what He is doing.
But now you've shifted the ground of the debate from miracles to the problem of suffering, a completely different subject.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 26, 2007 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Suffering
So you are placing your faith in a god who allows people to die in unspeakably horrific ways, allows young children to be molested, allows fires to burn thousands of homes, but then moves a screw for you.
If such a god does exist, I don't think I want anything to do with him.
I really feel sorry for you man, as you are obviously brainwashed beyond hope. Best of luck.
by GregJP on Oct 26, 2007 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
I'll continue along in my brainwashed state, thanks. We'll see eventually who is right. I am wagering, along with Pascal, one of the most brilliant men of history, that I am right (Google Pascal's Wager if you don't know what I'm talking about). If I am wrong, no harm done, I won't care anyway since I won't exist any more, and I had a much happier and more hopeful life anyway.
You seem to think that God has to provide near-perfection on Earth basically. We're not perfect, so Earth can't be perfect. Seriously, though, Christian philosophers know that this is a difficult problem. I would recommend reading "The Problem of Pain" by C.S. Lewis regarding this subject.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 26, 2007 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
here's the reason....
what was there to give an answer to?
your link provided no verifiable data.
and, even if it had, supporting that the material tested was in fact biological tissue, best as i could see there was no support where the tested tissue came from -- it took as a given that this flesh came the Host.
it claims "great interest was aroused in the scientific world"....but where is that interest? can you point me to a major scientific journal that has covered this case? it cites the WHO as throwing their hands up in the air, but i'd like to read that report before i agree that this was ACTUALLY the reaction of scientists.
doesn't it seem a little fishy to you that these "miracles" don't receive mainstream news coverage and aren't more widely pursued and discussed by scientists? or is this just denial on scientists part -- unlike the very description of their jobs and the way they make headlines and money, scientists DO NOT like pursuing the unknown and finding explanations/truth behind inexplicable events.
i agree with you here: "That's because you have a closed mind on the subject. You simply know that they cannot happen. That is just as dogmatic as the guy who believes the universe was created in six 24 hour days. You simply have a different faith."
at the same time, i didn't find the link you provided very informative -- it didn't give me the information i would need to evaluate the claim. it simply ensured me that "science agrees."
p.s., a side note -- i don't understand the story in the miracle. the guy's blood turns to wine, yet the "proof" that this really happened is that the wine has the composition of blood? isn't that just saying "his blood is blood, but we're calling it wine"? along what dimensions IS it supposedly wine?
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 26, 2007 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
Well, the original miracle was, the bread and wine actually transformed into visible flesh and blood when the priest said the prayer. Another miracle is that the substances never dissolved over 1000+ years. It was these substances that the scientists were testing.
The link is probably not there to convince ultra-skeptics, but I believe the linked text did mention where the scientific studies were actually published. So one just has to track them down and study them. It is well known in Italy and the studies probably received some publicity in the 70's when they were initially done, but things like this aren't really picked up on by the mainstream media that much.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 26, 2007 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and
And no priest can change bread & wine into the body & blood of Christ. That is completely against the faith. Even the saints can not do this. They can pray. And God may choose to do this. But it's not a direct result of the prayer.
by pedrophile on Oct 26, 2007 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
Here is a quote from the Catechism of the Catholic Church #1411:
1411 Only validly ordained priests can preside at the Eucharist and consecrate the bread and the wine so that they become the Body and Blood of the Lord.
You can search it online and read the sections before and after 1411 for more context.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 26, 2007 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
umm
by pedrophile on Oct 26, 2007 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
Paul's letters almost certainly were, since he is almost universally agreed to have died before AD 70.
These letters attest to the Eucharist quite clearly, especially in Corinthians.
But I don't even know if we are talking about the same thing, so....
by BaseballBrain on Oct 26, 2007 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nah
You are talking about the practice of the breaking of bread and the sacrament - and it's basis on the writings in the bible. I'm talking about the breaking of bread that was done prior to the existence of the bible.
Many believe the practice of the one imitates the practice of the other. The major difference of course being the symbolism of blood/wine bread/flesh. And even then it's more about "by eating & drinking with me and partaking in my religious message you are taking christ into your being". Isn't that what it's really about? Not eating a mans flesh or drinking a mans blood.
That is why miracles that are tied to the literal instead of the figurative seem quite silly to me. Well, at least in this case. lol
by pedrophile on Oct 26, 2007 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"ultra-skeptical"????
yes, i saw the italian study, but: 1) i can't read italian, 2) i'm not sure how to track down that journal anyway, 3) i don't know anything about the prominence of various italian science journals, and 4) relatedly, i can't tell if there's any incentive for that journal to side with the church if the church so desires.
so, yes, i was looking for a second source. and i DO find it exceedingly strange that "a miracle" -- something science couldn't explain -- didn't receive more attention from science AND attention from the mainstream media. examining each of these separatedly.....
first, on scientists: their job is to question our current views and find answers. the more controversial a study is, the more fame/prominence/money/etc you receive. thus, a piece of flesh that had no explanation would attract TONS of scientific attention. even if scientists weren't willing to concede that it definitively WAS a sign of a miracle, they would surely be interested in listing these results as an exception, right? or else want to continue testing until they did find a result that made sense. the beauty of science, when done properly, is that it DOESN'T have an agenda.
on the mainstream media: you don't think it would attract a lot of attention if a verifiable religious miracle was scientifically confirmed? why? people LOVE miracles. they LOVE the inexplicable. they LOVE religion. a story like this, IF any mainstream outlets viewed the results as fact, would make the front page of the newspaper and be the leadoff story on the nighttime news. it doesn't seem to me to be the type of story to "die away" simply because....why?.....you think atheists don't like the story? don't you think it would be taught in secular schools if it were a fact, or at least a plausible counterstory? i know your answers are going to be "no," to all of these, but i'd at least like to know why you think that.
----------------------
second, i'm STILL not understanding the miracle. OK -- so i understand HALF of it: that they're claiming this flesh and blood will never dissolve.
but is there any proof that this WAS bread and wine?
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 27, 2007 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Miracles
"the beauty of science, when done properly, is that it doesn't have an agenda" Agreed, 100%. But how often does it not have an agenda? Everyone basically has preconceived beliefs, and we tend to ignore things that we can't fit into our belief system. Given that most scientists and journalists are not that religion-friendly and especially not Catholic friendly, I would guess that this explains the relative lack of prominence. They probably write it off immediately as a hoax.
The Catholic Church and its adherents are probably the only ones likely to draw attention to these things and keep them in their memories, and there are tons more where that came from. Here are a few more:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Miracle_of_the_Sun
http://members.chello.nl/~l.de.bondt/IncorruptBodies.htm
http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=529432
Anyway, I'm not offering any of these miracles as PROOF. I'm sure there is always a way to think of an alternate explanation if one desires. Of course, 1200 years after the fact, there is no absolute proof that it ever was bread and wine. It has not dissolved for that time, though I don't think anyone is claiming it will NEVER dissolve.
by BaseballBrain on Oct 28, 2007 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BTW
by BaseballBrain on Oct 28, 2007 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
God's Debris
by mroak89 on Oct 24, 2007 9:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
WOW
- Red Sox & Yankee fans the most egotistical fans in existence. The idea that there might be just as many Cubs or Cardinals fans as them is heretical.
- BleedJaxBlue is a year closer to death. Happy Birthday dude. :) May you live as long as you want but never want as long as you live.
- I have less respect for GregJP than Bravesin now. Mahalo
by WayneCampbell05 on Oct 27, 2007 12:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
thanks!
by bleedjaxblue on Oct 27, 2007 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by 












