BA's CAL Top 20

by Wheelhouse on Oct 2, 2007 1:08 PM EDT

Justin Upton, of, Visalia Oaks (Diamondbacks)
Henry Sosa, rhp, San Jose Giants
Chris Tillman, rhp, High Desert Mavericks (Mariners)
Matt Antonelli, 2b, Lake Elsinore Storm (Padres)
Justin Masterson, rhp, Lancaster JetHawks (Red Sox)
Carlos Triunfel, ss, High Desert Mavericks (Mariners)
James McDonald, rhp, Inland Empire 66ers (Dodgers)
Chris Nelson, ss, Modesto Nuts (Rockies)
Chris Davis, 3b, Bakersfield Blaze (Rangers)
Dexter Fowler, of, Modesto Nuts (Rockies)
Brandon Hynick, rhp, Modesto Nuts (Rockies)
Wade LeBlanc, lhp, Lake Elsinore Storm (Padres)
Taylor Teagarden, c, Bakersfield Blaze (Rangers)
Eric Young Jr., 2b, Modesto Nuts (Rockies)
Hainley Statia, ss, Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (Angels)
Michael Saunders, of, High Desert Mavericks (Mariners)
Andrew Bailey, rhp, Stockton Ports (Athletics)
Kelvin Pichardo, rhp, San Jose Giants
Brooks Brown, rhp, Visalia Oaks (Diamondbacks)
Bubba Bell, of, Lancaster JetHawks (Red Sox)

Tweet Comment 34 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I wonder what Keith Law will think

since his favorite prospect Carlos Truinfel failed to be a top 5 prospect in both leagues he was in this year. Now way he is a top 5 prospects in all of baseball, maybe 30th.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 2, 2007 1:00 PM EDT reply actions

I'm sure he doesn't care

what coaches from the Cal League think. These lists are essentially pointless.

by deezle on Oct 2, 2007 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Pointless

I'd be curious to know what you think the "point" of any prospect ranking is, and why BA's individual league rankings fail to meet the lofty standards of true prospectdom.

This is a game, and an unbelievably imprecise one, at that. BA's lists provide more information about individual players than you can get anywhere else.

Reporting on Baseball from around the world! http://globalbaseball.wordpress.com

by jhelfgott @ Minor League Ball on Oct 2, 2007 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Good Point

by Dfarth on Oct 2, 2007 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm interested in seeing analysis and/or rankings of prospects from scouts or analysts in the know that have a scouting background. I could care less what some has-been low A coach says about a player or group of players in his league because of the inherent biases involved.

Furthermore, minor league baseball coaches are not scouts, nor are they trained to be. It would be like asking my finance teacher who will develop into the best I-bankers in our class. He doesn't know, he's a teacher, not an HR person or IB scout.

My view may be dramatically different than the majority on here, but I think these lists are incredibly pointless and I would rather here analysis on prospects from intelligent posters on this forum.

by deezle on Oct 2, 2007 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions

you think

a coach, who has been around prospects for years, and played the game himself and knows more about baseball than most of us probably ever will can't give you a little insight?
Coaching and scouting aren't that dissimilar in terms of who does them and what skills those people have. The objectives are obviously different but plenty of scouts have coached and some coaches have scouted. The biggest thing abotu these two jobs is you need to know lots about baseball. I'd absolutely care about a coaches perspective on the game, you dont think all that knowledge and experience might give them insights?

by nms on Oct 2, 2007 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Disagree

I think coaching and scouting are worlds apart. Coaching evaluates where the player is now, while scouting is attempting to evaluate what the player can become. I don't want to get scouting info from Buddy Bell and Larry Bowa rejects.

Just "knowing" about a particular industry doesn't mean you have an advanced ability to evaluate others in that industry.

by deezle on Oct 2, 2007 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I might agree with you...

on a single specific coaches opinion, but this is the opinion of the coaching/managerial staff for the league. So while the opinion of a single person within an industry could be written off, I think it'd be remiss to completely dismiss an industry-wide consensus. The industry being defined in this case as being the baseball coaches and managers within a league.

I think while it may be true that being in an industry does not necessarily make you an authority, but by the same token that position and experience certainly doesn't render your opinion invalid, especially when it's the polled opinion of a large group.

I certainly think there's a great deal of value in the opinions of those people with extensive industry history and a wealth of first hand knowledge of the subjects. I won't say it's the end all/be all of prospecting, but in my experience, to ignore the information gathered in BA's league top 20 greatly handicaps one's prospecting effort.

When prospecting, I tend to pay attention more to BA's league top 20s, which is compiled by the people who watched the players every day, and BA's top 10s, which were compiled by the team's scouts and management, over the various top 100s. The best use I found for top 100s is to hype prospects I want to trade.

by beastball on Oct 2, 2007 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh and sorry for all the bad grammar...

I was rushing through the post while at work.

by beastball on Oct 2, 2007 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Okay, agree to disagree

I definitely believe it takes a different skillset to coach players into performing better, rather than evaluating players on their potential for future success. One is more of a teacher while the other takes more of an analytical mindset. Just my 2 cents.

by deezle on Oct 2, 2007 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Subject

The rift between coaching and scouting (SCOUTS!) is not as high as you think it is. A LOT of minor league managers began their affiliation with MLB by scouting. People employed as scouts don't have a monopoly on this kind of information.
Scouts almost always come from the same "dried up player pool" that you cite as a reason to not care what coaches think. Coming from someone who knows several people who've been to MLB scouting school, the advantages of having played at ANY level, whether it's rookie ball, div. 3 ball at a liberal arts college, indy ball, or even high school, are huge.
it's not just managers, but development personnel and yes, scouts (SCOUTS!!!!!) that BA interviews for its lists. Major league teams invest millions in these kids. You think the guys these teams pay to protect their investments don't know a little something about how to evaluate skills in the people they work with? Minor league player development personnel hold the most underrated positions in baseball.
Again, it's a list. Every list misses people. Scouts overlook guys like Mark Reynolds and Matt Holliday who go onto make an impact in the majors on a yearly basis. Performance-based lists miss on gifted athletes all the time. This is one source of information that, yes, comes primarily from people who see these kids far more often than area scouts do.

Reporting on Baseball from around the world! http://globalbaseball.wordpress.com

by jhelfgott @ Minor League Ball on Oct 2, 2007 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly.

I never like these rankings or look at them too seriously. It's interesting to read, but I like hearing scout talk and some analysis of performance.

by SenorGato88 on Oct 2, 2007 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Seriously...

...don't you understand that these league lists don't count for anything when they put together their top 100 overall prospects.

It's Business Time

by uga007 on Oct 2, 2007 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Seriously...

Don't you realize that BA's rankings have very little to do with Keith Law???

Anyway, I'm not too sure why people keep ripping the rankings. Also, the info their receive from league managers, etc. does play SOME role in determining the top 30s and top 100.

Vice-Chairman of the Sonnanstine Underground Railroad

by Brickhaus on Oct 2, 2007 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Triunfel was the youngest player in both leagues

this year. Just the fact that he hit about .300 in both of them trumps the fact that they were empty batting averages with a low OBPs. He's an average of 4 years younger than anyone on that list, and at least 5 years younger than all the players. He held his own, and with tools evaluation that's enough. Although, I'd call him a top 15 instead of a top 5. Maybe top 10.

But back on topic, this obviously isn't a list of top prospects. This is a list of top performers that happen to be prospects. Chris Tillman over Triunfel? Everyone here should know better than that. Tillman projects to be a 2- or 3-slot starter at best. Triunfel is a Gary Sheffield-, Juan Gonzalez-level talent.

by elrey34 on Oct 3, 2007 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Coaches

What the hell do the coaches in the league know about any of these prospects?

All they do is talk to them and watch them play on a daily basis.

by GregJP on Oct 2, 2007 2:03 PM EDT reply actions

Accurate

This list is pretty accurate from what I can tell. I've heard raves about Tillman and I'm pretty happy to see him get some love.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 2, 2007 2:22 PM EDT reply actions

Response

The whole "anti-authority" thing I'm seeing in these league rankings threads is just plain crazy.

I don't agree with BA on lots of things, but I don't begrudge them their expert opinions. Sometimes I end up being right . . .I had Nick Markakis and Hunter Pence as top 10 prospects, significantly higher than BA had them pegged. Sometimes, they end up being right . . .but you know what, I'm happy when they're right and I'm wrong, because the experience shows me new things and helps me to see things that I may have missed. I do not call them "idiots" or whatnot for having done their research (and you know they know how to do their research over there, cause they've been doing it for however long now) and having compiled that research into easily readable print.

As someone who knows the value of well-done research, the lack of respect that people are showing for the carefully thought-out and refined process that Baseball America uses is just mind-boggling to me. You don't have to always like it, but don't hate on it.

by mrkupe on Oct 2, 2007 3:53 PM EDT reply actions

+1

the idea that guys like us are more experts than these coaches is crazy internet talk. and, per giantsfan below, the track record is pretty good on these compilations of coaches/scouts etc.

BUT, that said, I can still disagree with some of the specifics: I found this particular list really drastically overrated guys like Chris Nelson (who cares that he has tools and played a bit better this year, his performance has been mediocre for years, now, and he has to show more) and underrated guys like Teagarden (sure he still has to show he's injury-free, but basically he proved that pretty well -- beyond that he hit great and has great defense).

by scooter on Oct 2, 2007 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions

subject

I care that Chris Nelson played better this year and has tools.

by Josh @ Minor League Ball on Oct 2, 2007 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions

i do too

...i like his bat still...he was top-10 talent not so long ago...im not writing him off yet...look at brandon phillips...30-30 man....how many still believed he could do that? and how many people besides me think BOSSMAN is going to do 60-60? not many i bet

by daveh33 on Oct 3, 2007 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions

History

Historically, these league rankings look pretty good down the road. Critics might want to take a peak at the SAL top 20 from 5 years ago. Wow! Now that was some talent!!

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 2, 2007 4:53 PM EDT reply actions

subject

Chris Nelson yup yup.

by Josh @ Minor League Ball on Oct 2, 2007 6:16 PM EDT reply actions

Chris Nelson

The fact that Chris Nelson has a wide skill set and has transformed that into statistical success is very encouraging.

As we all are well aware, players don't always advance at the same rate.

That said, I am very bullish on Chris Nelson.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 3, 2007 8:47 AM EDT reply actions

re

trade bait? Rockies are set at SS, I wouldn't be surprised to see a team trade for Nelson. Rumor has the Braves trading Renteria and they already dealt their two top SS prospects (Luis Hernandez and Elvis Andrus). Nelson is from Atl, so it might be a good fit

by ScottAZ on Oct 3, 2007 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions

yeah

....thatd be an interesting fit...i think Nelson will definitely be a solid 2 hitter...and if he fills out his potential, then i liken him to a Tejeda/Renteria/BOSSMAN type....

by daveh33 on Oct 3, 2007 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

why would the Braves need Nelson

They have Escobar for SS next year and they still have Brent Lillibridge who is a SS.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 3, 2007 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions

re

I thought Lillibridge is considered a 2b guy in the Bigs for his defensive shortcomings at SS. Escobar played alot of 3b this year and I didn't know if that was his longterm spot. I could see Chipper move back to LF with escobar at 3b, Lillibridge at 2b, Brandon Jones in CF. SS could still be open, especially since Nelson is 2 years away as it is

by ScottAZ on Oct 3, 2007 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions

better option

Convert Nelson to 2b. He could certainly develop into a 25-25 guy in Coors. Maybe even better in his prime.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 3, 2007 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Brandon Phillips

part deux

by ScottAZ on Oct 3, 2007 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

What?

On what planet was Luis Hernandez the #2 Braves SS prospect? They didn't even trade him; he was just flat out waived.

by aCone419 on Oct 3, 2007 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions

exhale

easy chief. On BA's 1994 and 1995 list he was on the Braves top ten.

by ScottAZ on Oct 4, 2007 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Antontelli

you never really here too much talk about him. I think hes gonna be a stud. Is it just kinda because hes the best 2b prospect? Does the lack of competition kill spirited debate?

by wildthang on Oct 4, 2007 1:58 AM EDT reply actions

Response

I don't think the lack of competition is really what does it. There's usually not too many really good 2B prospects, as many ML 2B are actually failed shortstops who shift over. Of course, this didn't stop Rickie Weeks or Howie Kendrick from being considering outstanding prospects in their own right with plenty of publicity, and both were probably thought of more highly than Antonelli is by consensus opinion.

I think your answer has more to do with an evaluation of Antonelli as a prospect. I like him a lot, more than BA likes him I'm sure (although they like him a lot over there). I think everybody knows by now that he's a guy who's going to make a lot of contact with a patient approach and steal a lot of bases. What we aren't quite sure about is how his power will translate to higher levels . . .he's made significant adjustments over the last year or so that have allowed him to make huge strides in this area, but we'll have to wait and see on this. Sometimes you get a guy who can bring the whole package with him to the major leagues - if Antonelli does that, then yeah, he's pretty awesome. Most of the time, though, the power tapers down and then you've got a solid player, but most likely not a star. That's a top 40-50 prospect for most but not higher than that.

by mrkupe on Oct 4, 2007 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions