2009 Free Agent Class

by Galt on Oct 11, 2007 3:08 PM EDT Comment 34 comments

this year's FA class isn't really that interesting, but the 2008 off-season is shaping up be like the 2000 off-season.

And because of that, next year's trade deadline looks like it has the potential to have some really game-changing talents changing teams. Given the list of talents below, I think a lot of teams will be much more likely to part with some elite level prospects to get these guys. Don't get too attached to your teams' favorite prospects.

Guys currently tabbed as potential free agents after 2008:

P: Johan, Peavy, Sabathia, Lackey, AJ Burnett, Rich Harden, Ben Sheets
OF: Crawford, Dunn, Wily Mo Pena, Manny, Vlad
IF: Texeira, Furcal, Renteria, Glaus, Chipper, Orlando Hudson, Sexson, Felipe Lopez, Blaylock

The pitching especially looks amazing.

And note: between now and the end of the '08 season, the Yankees will have about $80MM coming off the books in Clemens, Giambi, Mussina, Pavano, Farnsworth, Abreu, and Pettite. That $80MM number will be decreased by whatever it costs to extend A-rod, and sign new contracts with Posada and Rivera. But it will still likely be about $60-%70MM. Enough for at least two, probably three superstar additions

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I would bet

that only 10% of the guys listed actually make it to FA.

by So Cal Bob on Oct 11, 2007 2:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd be surprised if Chipper left the Braves

I mean, I guess enough money might do the trick.... But I just don't see it happening.

by mraver on Oct 11, 2007 2:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lucky Wily Mo Pena

In that class, he's going to be like the homely house on the block whose value gets dragged up by the mansions. Nice timing, Wily Mo!

by siddfynch on Oct 11, 2007 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

or else the loser....

....in a game of musical chairs

by bleedjaxblue on Oct 11, 2007 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, someone will want him

He's a "professional hitter"!

I think he'd look good in Dodger blue, myself. Anything to keep him away from St. Louis.

by siddfynch on Oct 11, 2007 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"professional hitter"

my favorite self-fulfilling prophecy: if you offer a contract to a professional hitter, you wouldn't expect to get an amateur, would you?

in all seriousness, i don't hate wily mo. if there were any place to play him (hint, hint: still looking for an assassain to "take care" of Monsieur Pierre), i wouldn't mind him in dodger blue myself. actually, imagining him in dodger blue makes me realize that he's sort of the worst-case scenario for Matt Kemp.

anyway, i'm pretty sure Colletti already has his eyes on Harden. does a seven-year deal seem excessive?

by bleedjaxblue on Oct 11, 2007 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Schmidt

got 5, then Harden would have to get 10 right?

by So Cal Bob on Oct 11, 2007 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dude

you just terrified me. 5 years?!?

fortunately, i checked it up, and Schmidt only got 3.

i love it when the positive spin a GM can make on his signings is, "but look how short it's going to last!"

still, i'm kind of shuddering at what Colletti would offer Harden. i feel like an agent could talk him into signing Harden for 10 by pointing out how little of his career has been "used up" already by sitting out the last few years. of course, i also think Colletti would sign Cory Lidle to a five-year contract.....

by bleedjaxblue on Oct 11, 2007 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

my bad

I thought it was for 5, but 3 does equate to at least 6 for Harden.

Colletti needs to be locked into an office with Logan White and not allowed to take any phone calls until April 1, 2008.

He will come out of this hibernation with White with a far better roster and all his talent still in tact.

by So Cal Bob on Oct 11, 2007 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Professional hitters...

... are always white. So Wily Mo Pena is ineligible. Nor can he be a grinder.

Also, professional hitters are usually the types who hit .280/.340/.420, which is, like, the opposite of Wily Mo, who's more likely to go .230/.300/.480.

by abbreviatedman on Oct 11, 2007 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

Harris, Mota, and Saenz would tend to disagree.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen.

by Phil Gurnee on Oct 12, 2007 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just wait

Pena is going to be an All Star next season in Washington. Though I think they'll probably keep him rather than letting him be a free agent.

I don't think everyone will be free agents in this group (especially Teixeira), but it's a pretty damn impressive class as of right now. And the Yankees are positioned amazingly.

by Galt on Oct 11, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Crawford and Harden are traded

I those two will be dealt.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 11, 2007 3:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't

see where your getting 60-70 million, the Yankees will need to lock up Cano and Wang and possibly Melky.... (thats probably 18-24) million right there plus A-Rod is going to get 30+, Posada is going to get a raise (Pudge got 13 in an option year, Posada likely gets 14-15 per) Rivera 100% will get a raise from the 10.5 million he made this year, he wants to get paid... im thinking about 14 million, Giambi will be gone but will cost 5 million to buy him out.

by Peter North on Oct 11, 2007 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yankees Payroll

I agree that they will have a lot to spend. However, I'm not sure on your estimate. For one thing, I think A-Rod's gonna opt out and then cost $35 million per year, so if the Yankees want him, it will cost them $15 million more per year. Feel free to lower that if you think the Yankees can lock him up pre-opt-out, or if you think they'll let him walk and save $20 million. (Which of course would make them a lot more talent-poor than $20 million.)

Also, don't forget that Wang and Cano are going to be making something like $8 million more each by the end of next year, since I believe they are entering arbitration this offseason, and another round next offseason (I may be wrong about this due to DL time). Plus a couple million in raises to other players. So I "only" expect it to be around $50 million in savings.

The real question for them, I think, is what their payroll will be in '09. It's bounced between $180 and $220 million the last few years, but who knows what things will be like when Steinbrenner becomes less of a factor (as it seems like he's getting late early). Their payroll is impossible to predict.

by abbreviatedman on Oct 11, 2007 3:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I will bet anyone

that Arod does not get $35 million on the open market. I will also take bets that Arod doesn't even opt out.

Everyone talks about how much they hate Boras, yet they always get sucked in to his B.S.

To my numbers
Off - It's $80MM without counting Clemens. It's nearly $110 when including Clemens

Clemens (28)
Giambi (21)
Petite (16)
Abreu (15)
Mussina (11)
Pavano (11)
Farnsworth (5.5)

More - Maybe $5MM more a year?

Posada - he made $12MM this year. How much of a raise do you actually think he'll get as a 36 year old? I don't say he'll get a raise.
Rivera - Made $9MM this year. Maybe he goes up to $12MM a year? So that's $3MM maybe?
Arod. Since he's going to sign an extension, which won't kick in until 2010, any pay raise is moot. If he opts out, the Yanks don't re-sign him. And if he opts out, he doesn't make a laughable $35MM a year. He may sign a $35MM extension with the Yanks, but that's only because the Yanks are only paying him $20MM a year for the next three years.
Cano and Wang both have barely over 1 year of service time. Thanks to arbitration, Wang got renewed at $500K after a 20 win season next year.

Sure, they're going to make more money, but it's not like Wang and Cano are going to get $5MM a year raises. They are both 5 years away from free agency.

Depending on who they add their roster this offseason, the Yankees payroll has $100MM less in commitments than it did in 2007

by Galt on Oct 11, 2007 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how many times has boras been right?

it's a huge mistake to discount anything boras says. and this time, boras is saying that arod is worth $500 million to the yankees.

that article could probably be discounted, though, due to the fact that anyone working at cnbc is a complete tool.

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (link fixed)
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by overlord on Oct 11, 2007 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

a couple small things

Clemens had a pro-rated salary of 28 million. They actually only paid him 18.7 mil. I can't believe I put the word "only" in that last sentence. It will also cost the Yankees 5 mil to buy out Giambi's option and 2 mil to let Abreu leave. Also I'm not sure they don't bring Abreu back.

by kaisertown on Oct 11, 2007 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cano

has now played 3 FULL seasons in the majors (132, 122 and 160 games) his service time according to Cots is 2.153 and will be at 3.153 after next year, not sure where you got one year from, Wang is at 2.159

by Peter North on Oct 11, 2007 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What will you bet?

I think A-Rod will opt out. It will take an extension of something like 5 years at 35M per to keep him, and I don't think they Yankees will pay that.

Boras of course exagerrates, and picks and chooses the numbers to support his case. He floated something like a 400M contract. A-Rod will not get that. He could get 35M per year on a short term deal. They get either the years or the stupendously high annual salary, not both.

by elricsi on Oct 11, 2007 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he isn't going to make less than the 25.2

I think you'll see a 35 a year for 6 year deal from a team.

by JDSussman on Oct 11, 2007 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

don't forget

that a huge chunk of arod's current salary is being paid by texas. so if he re-ups with them, it's gonna be more than just the additional amount over what he's making now.

i believe there is some clause that will keep texas paying for some of it if he re-signs within the 10 day period after the WS is done.

http://www.simdynasty.com/index.jsp?refer=mychiefs58

by huckleberry on Oct 11, 2007 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hate to break it to you guys,

but the Yanks don't pay Arod's full salary, he's actually paid the majority by the Rangers I believe... Someone should clarify that. I know that not all of it is considered coming off the Yankees payroll.

Under the deal, the Yankees pay Rodriguez $15 million in each of the next three seasons, $16 million each in 2007 and 2008, $17 million in 2009 and $18 million in 2010, according to contract information obtained by the AP from player and management sources.

The trade calls for Texas to pay $43 million of Rodriguez's salary over the remaining seven years: $3 million in 2004, $6 million each in 2005, 2006 and 2010, $7 million apiece in 2007 and 2009 and $8 million in 2008. In addition, the Rangers will pay the $24 million remaining in deferred money from the original contract, with the interest rate lowered from 3 percent to 1.75 percent.

All the deferred money owed by Texas -- $36 million including salaries from 2001 to 2003 -- will be lumped with the original $10 million signing bonus, of which $4 million is still owed. The payout schedule will be pushed back to 2016-2025 from 2011-20.

So it's not as bad as you fellas really think.. He's pricey and it will get more expensive as he opts out of his contract, but for what he brings to the table, most teams would give an arm and a leg for...

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Oct 13, 2007 4:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Crawford NOT a free agent

The D-Rays have a 8.25 million option on him for '09, and a 10 mil option for '10. Even if they don't want to pony up the $, they will exercise the option and deal him. He is cheap compared to what guys like Torii Hunter are going to get this winter.

by drwmsu1 on Oct 11, 2007 3:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Miguel Cabrera

by ISC on Oct 11, 2007 4:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I know for a fact

that Minaya is OBSESSED with Cabrera (almost got slapped with a tampering fine this year for this) id be STUNNED if the Mets don't a) make a strong push to deal for him should he become available b) make him a MONSTER offer if hes a FA (I assume moving him to 1b and leaving Wright at 3b but who knows)

by Peter North on Oct 11, 2007 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Marlins do need a centerfielder

and the Mets have two on their roster. Of course the Mets will have to give up almost everything to get Cabrera unless the frontoffice sours on him.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 11, 2007 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't think the Mets...

... have what it takes to get him. Excellent young OFs, nothing else anyone else would go crazy for. Unless they were to give up major league pieces. Even then, though, I dunno.

I share Omar Minaya's obsession, though. Any team that gets Miggy and signs him long-term gets a huge boost, an offensive force who isn't even at his peak yet.

by abbreviatedman on Oct 11, 2007 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

iunno...

Milledge/Gomez/Guerra/Pena...it's not a deep system, but if there's one guy worth gutting all the system's impact talent for...well, it's Pujols. But if there's two, it's Pujols and Cabrera.

Reporting on Baseball from around the world! http://globalbaseball.wordpress.com

by jhelfgott on Oct 12, 2007 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

After what the Mets gave for

Victor Zambrano, expect all 4 of those guys to be traded for Cabrera...

In all honesty, if the Marlins don't keep him and Ramirez together, they need to put that team on the contraction list or make the owner sell to someone who wants to own a quality baseball team.

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Oct 13, 2007 4:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno about that.

I'll admit that the owner is a complete asshole, but if they trade Cabrera for a package of, say, Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jed Lowrie (which is complete supposition, but sounds like something that could get done), they'd have a lot of young talent that they could keep together for years.

by abbreviatedman on Oct 13, 2007 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs