Outfield prospects

by SBcaptain2 on Oct 10, 2007 2:14 PM EDT Comment 34 comments

Could you guys rank the following outfielders:

Carlos Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jordan Schafer, Dexter Fowler, Wladimir Balentien, Desmond Jennings, Gorkys Hernandez, Austin Jackson, Fernando Martinez, and Jose Tabata

This is NOT fantasy related. You dont have to rank all of them, but maybe you could just give me your opinions on some of the guys that you are familiar with. Thanks

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Ranks

Desmond Jennings (great combo of tools and performance)
Ellsbury (perhaps the most ML ready of all the guys listed)
Balentein (not sure why he's not rated just as highly as Jones is)
Schafer (hit really well in a park where that is difficult... compare his numbers with guys like Francoeur in MB and you can see just how much potential he has)
Fernando Martinez and Tabata (hard to justify putting these two above any of the 1-4 guys, much less polished and still very much guys who are rated highly based upon what they COULD do and not what they have done).

by tmsnow on Oct 10, 2007 2:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jones is a center fielder by trade who will play left field for the M's because we already have a top defensive center fielder. Thus, he is seen as a plus defensive corner outfielder already, who will become plus-plus as long as he progresses and as he is kept in the corner outfield. Wlad is currently below average, will become average at best, and is a year older than AJ.

Although I see where you're coming from, as he is the better hitter as of now.

by elrey34 on Oct 10, 2007 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My Ranking:

Jacoby Ellsbury - Not as high of a ceiling as some other guys below but is doing it well at the Major Leaue Level and will continue too. MLB Comparison - Johnny Damon
Carlos Gonzalez - Very streaky player, but tons of power and very athletic. Not sure where he fits with the D'Backs but his bat will push him into a Major League lineup very soon. MLB Comparison - Jeff Francoeur (look at their MiLB numbers, very very similiar)

3.) Desmond Jennings - Could be #1 on this list, but yet still somewhat of an unknown to most. Unreal speed. MLB Comparison - Carl Crawford

4.) Jordan Schafer - really came on last year, was mostly a pitcher more than a hitter in high school so its taken a little time for him to adjust to pro ball. MLB Comparison - Grady Sizemore

5.) Martinez or Tabata - Take your pick of these two highly gifted teenagers. Something tells me though one of them will bust, maybe both.

by bryanmurphy2005 on Oct 10, 2007 6:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

my take not in order

My Ranking:

1)Jacoby Ellsbury - will become an above average player. Better Brett Butler

2)Carlos Gonzalez - Don't like him too much, I see him becoming a Jose Cruz Jr. type player

3.) Desmond Jennings - A bit too early for me to say he be something good. If he impresses me in A+ and AA then he's going to get bumped up. Right now he's Michael Bourn with more power.

4.) Jordan Schafer -We'll see how he does in AA, he hit great in a pitchers park. Right now he's Steve Finley like.

5.) Tabata- I think he'll either become another Abreu or bust. Hitting for a good average right now with above average speed.

6) Martinez- I think he is overhyped due to his birthday which causes a lot of prospects to be too high on lists. Granted he was pushed into AA at 18. I still am very worried he could become another Ochoa or Escobar. His hand injuries are concerning to say the least. I think he'll be similar to a Brian Giles type if a lot comes together, not the Manny or Cabrera type BA and BP put on him.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 10, 2007 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow

I really think people are going a little overboard on Jennings compared to earlier in the season where he was quite overlooked by most. Yes, he oozes tools but so do many guys in the minors and many guys that have already busted. Ranking on potetnial I could see how Jennings could be atop this list but based I'd much rather take Gonzalez, Ellsbury, Martinez, Tabata, Fowler, & Balentein over him at this point. Once/if he proves more then of course he'd shoot past a few of those guys.

by Havok1517 on Oct 10, 2007 9:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

prove?

Its not like he didnt hit at all and people are just looking at potential, Jennings had a fantastic year. Hitting .315/.401/.465 as a 20 year old is a very good year. I mean you could say "until he proves it at a higher level". If Jennings just keeps his numbers exactly where they are by the time he makes the pros, he will be a fantastic leadoff hitter. A guy with his speed who knows how to take a pitch, and has respectable power is hard to come by

by Kanst42 on Oct 11, 2007 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's what I can contribute...

#1 Fernando Martinez : Health is a concern, but what he has on his side far outweighs that. While the numbers aren't real flashy, he held his own in Double-A as an 18-year-old. Pair that with the tools and talent, and that's enough.

#2 Jose Tabata : Stock has dropped since some scouts say he hasn't handled adversity this year as much as most would like, and there is talk of work ethic issues. Still real young in comparison to the pitchers he's facing though, and still just as talented.

#3 Desmond Jennings : The name seems new on the radar to many, but he's very toolsy and shows a terrific eye. I don't think he has quite as much potential as a hitter as the above two, but he's still young and athletic enough to learn center field real well, and if he keeps stealing bases, his value will be comparable, if not more.

#4 Jacoby Ellsbury : Reminds me a lot of Jeremy Reed -- Similar accomplishments at similar ages, similar skillset, same position and same comps at those ages (Johnny Damon, Mark Kotsay type). They were both considered low risk-medium reward, too. Hopefully Ellsbury doesn't disappoint next year because he doesn't have a lot of time after that before he's a busted prospect. The park he plays in will sure help, though.

#5 Wladimir Baltentine : Has a future somewhere as Magglio Ordonez (I'm not overrating Wlad, don't overrate Maggs), so long as he doesn't falter next year. Ninety percent of baseball has doubted Wlad since he was a teenager, and he has proved them all wrong each step of the way. Now, after a true breakthrough '07 campaign, his chances of being a Major League regular are better than ever -- but those chances are still average at best. He just needs to apply what he learned this year to Major League pitching next year. For his sake, I hope he's traded (as he probably will be) to somewhere he can be given a real good opportunity. Godspeed, Wlad. You'll always be one of my favorite prospects I've ever followed.

by elrey34 on Oct 10, 2007 11:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Magglio

If Wlad has a future as Magglio, he is easily #1 on this list. You say not to overrate Magglio, but you do realize he was the 2nd best hitter in the AL this year, right? If Wlad ever is the 2nd best hitter in the league, even for a single season, he'll be better than everyone else on this list.

I mean, you rank the future Magglio right below you rank the guy who reminds you a lot of Jeremy Reed?

by Diggity Dino on Oct 11, 2007 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I said don't overrate Ordonez.

Over the past four years, Ordonez has been a tick above average on offense for a right fielder; this year aside as at outlier and I'll get to that. But he's a well below average fielder, and loses the ground he gains on an average right fielder in this category.

His career numbers are inflated from playing in that bandbox in Chicago for most of his career, and his monster season this year is mostly due to his increase in contact rate that's way higher than his career norms. If he sustains the higher contact rate next year, I might just have to retract my statement. But looking at his overall contributions to the teams he's played on, he's not much better than average -- and that's how I predict Wlad to be like. His offense will be enough to be a big contributor to his team, but his defense will take enough of it back that he won't be as good as baseball thinks.

by elrey34 on Oct 11, 2007 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you remember that Magglio...

... was a perennial All-Star for the White Sox for years? He was one of the best hitters in the AL then as well. He a consistent .300-30-100 guy, who stole 25 bags one year, hit .320-38-135 another year and consistently controlled the strike zone well. Other than the power, I dont know Wlad has shown any of those skills.

by grozzy on Oct 11, 2007 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Cell

Those 30hrs aren't all that impressive given his home park. US Cellular is more homer-friendly than The Ballpark at Arlington.

Ordonez was a good hitter/mediocre defender for years. He was a fringe all-star whose park helped him put up perennial all-star numbers. This is the first year he's ever been truly great, and until he repeats it there's no way I'll believe that his 2007 batting average is sustainable.

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by jhelfgott on Oct 11, 2007 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm

I was wondering if that was a tongue-in-cheek response, or serious? Because I am pretty sure the only person who could sustain a 363 average was Ty Cobb. Doesn't mean there haven't been other great players.

by drwmsu1 on Oct 11, 2007 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mags

If you scale Ordonez' batting average down to 300, his season doesn't look anything close to MVP-worthy.

With his secondary skills, if he's hitting .360, he's a great player, at .300 he's a fringe all-star at best with his declining defense. I was saying in my post that the thing that made Ordonez' season great this year isn't something he can possibly sustain.

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by jhelfgott on Oct 11, 2007 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh...

and even though I'm a Mariners fan and a fan of Balentien, I still think the Ordonez comp is way off the mark. They just don't have similar skill sets at all. Ordonez had plus power and an ability to consistently hit over .300 in his prime.

Wlad has monster raw power, but I'll be pretty surprised if he ever hits .300 in the majors. In Safeco, I see Wlad's upside as around a .270/.360/.520 guy. Nothing wrong with that, but he's in no way comparable to Magglio Ordonez as a hitter.

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by jhelfgott on Oct 11, 2007 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't say they were clones.

They do have similar height, builds at 23, ethnicity, positions, the ages of accomplishments climbing up the ladder, fielding abilities, arm, speed, and power (Wlad's is better). Ordonez, however, knew how to steal a base better and made more contact. But most importantly, their overall game looks to contribute to their team in about the same amount and in very similar ways.

Why is everyone so focused on the bat?

by elrey34 on Oct 11, 2007 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

umm

"If you scale Ordonez' batting average down to 300, his season doesn't look anything close to MVP-worthy."

But his average wasn't .300, it was .363. Whats the point of saying if he didnt get as many hits he wouldnt be as good of a player. Isn't that always the case with every player?

by SBcaptain2 on Oct 11, 2007 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The point...

as someone else stated, is that nobody sustains a .360 batting average. There's maybe one player in a generation who can ride a singles-heavy batting average as a sustainable skill. In the modern day, that's Ichiro.

Looking at it in retrospect, it was a fantastic year. Using it to project future performance, there's no reason whatsoever to believe he'll even come close ever again.

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by jhelfgott on Oct 11, 2007 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

singles heavy average?

Maggs had 54 doubles and 28 homers. He had 82 extra base hits, only 3 less than A-Rod. He also had a slugging percentage of .595, giving him an isolated power of .232, which is hardly a "singles heavy average."

by SBcaptain2 on Oct 11, 2007 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Definitely.

He's no Ichiro, he had a ton of XBHs. But his career ISO is .210, so, again, nothing new here except the singles. It's not that I'm saying he'd be nothing without the extra singles, just that he'd be nothing more than his usual All-Star self without the extra singles. His other years have been quite excellent. Just not MVP-worthy.

by abbreviatedman on Oct 11, 2007 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly.

Nobody's said Mags' 2007 wasn't an incredible year.

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by jhelfgott on Oct 12, 2007 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he was trying to convey

That much of his accomplishments this year is propelled by the large increase in singles. Yes, he hit for a bit more power than was expected, but that can be explained by an unexpected increase in HR/F and LD%, which, as predicted by most, is expected to regress back down to his career norms next year.

by elrey34 on Oct 11, 2007 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maggs

also had a large increase in doubles.

by SBcaptain2 on Oct 12, 2007 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The point:

The point is that most players have a sort of "natural batting average" that they hit year after year, within of course a certain deviation. When they have a fluky year where their batting average skyrockets way above their norms, it can make their OBP and SLG look impressive without them actually having more walks or more extra base hits. Just more singles, which are the flukiest kind of hit. For the best example of this, see Gary Matthews Jr:

.255/.320/.436
.252/.323/.419

Career .261/.334/.419
2006: .313/.371/.495

Which numbers don't match? 2006, obviously. Both years around it, and his career numbers, are almost perfect matches for each other. Furthermore, the entirety of the difference is more singles. If you subtract the fluky singles to bring his BA down 52 points to match his career BA, you get a line of .261/.319/.444. More or less his career numbers. He hit a lot of singles one year, his walk year, and it made him $50 million. Now he's reverted back to being Gary Matthews Jr., much to Angels fans' dismay.

You can do the same with Magglio. He has never before hit over .320. Actually, he's extremely consistent BA-wise; in 7 full years before this year, he hit between .282 and .320, and only once below .298. If you take out the singles to lower his 2007 to his 2006 BA of .298, his line this year becomes .298/.371/.530, which, of course, is almost exactly his career numbers of .312/.370/.522.

On the other hand, I agree with the people who say that any prospect who you think can put up a career .312/.370/.522 line is a damn good prospect.

by abbreviatedman on Oct 11, 2007 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dont get it

First off Maggs is a .312 career hitter so scaling him down to .300 isnt fair. But lets scale this year down to .310. That takes away 32 hits, his HR seem pretty normal but the doubles were way high so lets lop off 8 doubles and 24 singles. That would put him at .309/.387/.528. That is a fantastic year, pretty comparable to David Wright who was a lot of peoples MVP vote. I know nothing about his defense so I can't comment.

I think people expect too much out of prospects, Magglio Ordonez sans injuries would be a great result for any prospect. If Wlad turns into Magglio the Mariners will be absolutely ecstatic.

That being said I see very few similarities between the two. Wlad seems to me to be more of a .270/.350/.520 or so player, I would be suprised if he is consistently over .300 in batting average.

I see Wlad as more of a more powerful Raul Ibanez, or maybe Chris Duncan.

by Kanst42 on Oct 11, 2007 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

It's a really good year, especially in Detroit. It's not a year that puts him in the top two in MVP discussion, though.

For the record, he's a below average right fielder with bad knees. He's a pretty big liability in a large outfield.

Basically all I'm saying is that Ordonez throughout his career has been a good player whose home park for several years made him look a little better than he was and that his career season isn't something he's ever likely to repeat.

If anyone disagrees with that, I won't lose much sleep over it.

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by jhelfgott on Oct 11, 2007 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defense

I haven't watched him that often so maybe I am misisng something but if you go to the hardball times and look at the defensive stats for right fielders you would find that Magglio has the highest RZR out of any of them and is middle of the pack (right next to JD Drew) in plays made out of his zone. This tells me that he is a competent fielder with average range. That is he catches everything hit at him and has decent range for the balls in the gap/down the line

by Kanst42 on Oct 12, 2007 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defense

He wasnt as bad as these guys are saying he was. I watched him all year and he was solid, though he lost a lot of range at then end of the year because he was fighting through some plantar faciistis. The above comments make it sound like he's Barry Bonds out there.

by SBcaptain2 on Oct 12, 2007 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Adjust for park factor, defensive subtractions.

by elrey34 on Oct 11, 2007 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

US Cellular

Is NOT a bandbox as you repeatedly claim. Let's look ESPN's park factors from '01 to '04 because that's all I have.

2001 - 11th in R, 6th in HR, 15th in H, 20th in 2B, 23rd in 3B
2002 - 10th, 10th, 13th, 18th, 22nd
2003 - 16th, 3rd, 23rd, 21st, 14th
2004 - 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 16th, 17th

Bonus Stats (after Magglio left) :
2005 - 9th, 1st, 19th, 20th, 21st
2006 - 9th, 2nd, 15th, 26th, 26th
2007 - 9th, 4th, 9th, 14th, 29th

While the Cell gives up a ton of homers, singles, doubles and triples are suppressed to the point where it's barely a top ten ballpark for hitters. The only time the Cell played like a bandbox was '03 and that was because there were an outlier of singles that year. So please stop spreading this misinformation. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Oct 12, 2007 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Cell

ESPN's park factors are horrible. Unless they've undergone a radical shift and retroactively applied it to the past 6 years, they don't adjust for the unbalanced schedule or interleague play.
"barely a top 10 park for hitters?" Good point. Of all major league ballparks, barely 67% of them are worse environments to hit in than this particular one we're discussing. Also, the original claim that led people to discuss the cell were that Magglio's perennial 30hrs weren't as impressive as the raw total would make it seem. The Cell is one of the most homer-prone stadiums in baseball.

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by jhelfgott on Oct 12, 2007 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Better Park Factors

Well, if you have a better or more accurate source for PF, I'm all ears dude. It may not be much, but it's all I know about as of this moment. Yes, you are statistically correct, but what I'm objecting to is the term "bandbox" which to me is pejorative. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Oct 13, 2007 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

better park factors

http://firstinning.com/pf/?type=basic&lg=AL&min=250&season=2007

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/weighted_park_factors_2003_2005/

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by jhelfgott on Oct 13, 2007 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

Fortunately, my point still stands. In every sortable stat on First Inning, the Cell is middle of the pack except for HR. In fact, if you want to call any ballpark a "bandbox", it would have to be Yankee stadium. They had a higher park factor in every category except 2B than the Cell. On FI, USC ranked 7th in H, 8th in 2B, 13th in 3B, 2nd in HR, 8th in K and 9th in BB. That only counts AL parks too.

I didn't want to go through the bother of sorting through BTF's numbers. There is no sort function and I'd have to sift through all the minor league data too. :) I do appreciate the links though. I already bookmarked FI's page. One of these days, I'll look through their site for previous seasons to see if last year was an aberration. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Oct 14, 2007 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs