Community Projection: Carlos Quentin

by John Sickels on Jan 30, 2007 2:33 PM EST in News

Project these numbers for Carlos Quentin of the Diamondbacks:

Games
At-Bats
Hits
Batting Average
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
K
SB

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My take

Games 148
At-Bats 523
Hits 149
Batting Average .285
2B 33
3B 5
HR 19
RBI 79
BB 71
K 81
SB 7

.285/.370/.476

I think he has a very good year and would be in the conversation for rookie of the year had he gotten fewer at bats last season.

by Kanst42 on Jan 30, 2007 2:48 PM EST reply actions

How about

Games 150
AB 519
hits 151
batting avg .291
2b 33
3b 3
hr 25
rbi 85
bb 53
k 70
sb 4

.291/.378/.511

by eastin on Jan 30, 2007 4:46 PM EST reply actions

Quentin

Games 152
At-Bats 505
Hits 145
Batting Average .287
2B 32
3B 4
HR 28
RBI 93
BB 70
K 85
SB 5

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Jan 30, 2007 5:45 PM EST reply actions

Almost forgot

HBP: 16

.287/.391/.533

This kid is the real deal.

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Jan 30, 2007 6:18 PM EST up reply actions

.288/.380/.497

by 3Com Park on Jan 30, 2007 5:54 PM EST reply actions

Think about it

I can't see Quentin posting an OPS of close to 900 in his second year in the MLB.

I figure something around 800 would be more appropriate, even though he's got impressive plate discipline for a youngster.

Games 148
At-Bats 515
Hits 147
Batting Average .285
2B 26
3B 3
HR 18
RBI 72
BB 51
K 92
SB 4

285/350/455

by Conic on Jan 30, 2007 6:27 PM EST reply actions

Quentin

Games 118
At-Bats 317
Hits 81
Batting Average .256
2B 23
3B 1
HR 11
RBI 32
BB 30
HP 4
K 69
SB 4

.328/.438

by C @ Minor League Ball on Jan 30, 2007 8:56 PM EST reply actions

I was just wondering

Is the final community projection just an average of all of the numbers or is there some way of removing outlying points like the above, or if i were to post something outlandishly good like 60hrs?

by revans37 on Jan 30, 2007 9:39 PM EST reply actions

I don't know how much an outlier my projection really is -- I'm projecting a average 3 points higher than he hit last year, I'm projecting a modest downward tick in OBP and a drop of about 100 points in slugging, from the low fives to the low fours. I'm projecting 11 home runs, but others are projecting 15, 17, 18 and 19. It's one thing to be an outlier, another to be the low end of the range.

by C @ Minor League Ball on Jan 31, 2007 8:53 AM EST up reply actions

outlier

I don't think this is anywhere close to something you'd consider striking from the entries. Sure I disagree with the conclusions. I think too much weight was given to a small sample size of major league stats and not enough to a large sample size of minor league stats, but that doesn't mean he's wrong. Most of us could be wrong and Quentin might be a dissappointment this year. Not betting on it, but it could happen. I guess ridiculous entries like Quentin hitting 100 homers or going having a zero batting average in 400 at bats would have to be dropped, but this isn't crazy it's just a different take from the majority.

by eastin on Jan 31, 2007 5:37 PM EST up reply actions

ok, i see your point

but i still would like to know what is the criteria for removing outlying points, and not even removing them, but there should be a way to recognize the majority opinion

by revans37 on Jan 31, 2007 9:29 PM EST up reply actions

Not quite a superstar....yet

Games 129
At-Bats 419
Hits 118
Batting Average .282
2B 17
3B 4
HR 15
RBI 61
BB 57
K 77
SB 5

One DL stint for shoulder injury, mainly as precaution in August after the D-Backs are out of the playoff hunt

by dlpme77 on Jan 30, 2007 10:30 PM EST reply actions

not quite yet

Games 132
At-Bats 487
Hits 135
Batting Average .277
2B 28
3B 3
HR 18
RBI 67
BB 55
K 91
SB 5

i see him struggling early, having to share some time, but then coming on strong at the end of the year....

by biggentleben on Jan 30, 2007 10:30 PM EST reply actions

Solidity at its finest

Games 136
At-Bats 452
Hits 124
Batting Average .274
2B 28
3B 4
HR 17
RBI 73
BB 68
K 77
SB 3

.274/.369/.467

Some people bring the Bible to college...we bring Moneyball.

by uga007 on Jan 30, 2007 11:51 PM EST reply actions

.297/.409/.570

by gogotabata on Jan 31, 2007 12:08 AM EST reply actions

Hopefully the start of a great career

Games 148
At-Bats 514
Hits 143
Batting Average .278
2B 28
3B 4
HR 18
RBI 74
BB 58
K 87
SB 7

278/361/457

Would be pretty good numbers for a guy who is almost a rookie. I look forward to watching these D-backs mash together for years to come, especially CoJack and Quentin.

by bl on Jan 31, 2007 1:38 AM EST reply actions

I like the variability in opinions...

But there's no doubtin' he's good.

Games 145
At-Bats 500
Hits 138
Batting Average .275
2B 30
3B 1
HR 30
RBI 98
BB 50
K 100
SB 4

by eeleye on Jan 31, 2007 2:42 AM EST reply actions

My guess

Games 147
At-Bats 530
Hits 162
Batting Average ..301
2B 43
3B 3
HR 23
RBI 86
BB 89
K 74
SB 2

by ChrisRef19 on Jan 31, 2007 6:59 AM EST reply actions

won't see the ab's some you predict

AZ still has some guys to fit in and manuever out there. Glad that Gonzo and Green are finally gone though.

Games- 138
At-Bats- 476
Hits- 134
Batting Average- .281
2B- 27
3B- 0
HR- 14
RBI- 61
BB- 47
K- 81
SB- 7

281 ave/346 ob, solid first full year

by ScottAZ on Jan 31, 2007 11:18 AM EST reply actions

who's going to be taking away ABs?

Byrnes is there, bu I doubt he'll be in RF much.

by mraver on Jan 31, 2007 11:29 AM EST up reply actions

Agree

As of now the Dback list Hairston, DaVanon, Krynzel and Hammoc as possiable subs in the OF. I also ready something about Callaspo taking some time there too.

I think Quentin will get a lot of AB based on his power and obp potential. Chris Young has potential, but I think Quentin will start and keep up doing well, where Young may struggle a bit to start.

by ChrisRef19 on Jan 31, 2007 11:40 AM EST up reply actions

re

Hairston, Davannon, Byrnes, etc along with young studs like Quinton, Young, etc = a lot of guys that need ABs

by ScottAZ on Jan 31, 2007 1:32 PM EST up reply actions

re: Yellow Brick Road for Quentin

He may have a break out year, depending who's hitting in front of him.

G: 153
AB: 540
H: 168
BA: .311
2b: 34
3: 2
HR: 26
RBI: 93
R: 102
BB: 77
SO: 76

"Magic's might makes it right."

by feslenraster on Jan 31, 2007 1:03 PM EST reply actions

My Take

G:145
AB:480
H:145
BA:.302
2b:35
3b:4
HR:23
RBI:83
R:82
BB:68
SO:105

by Bravesin07 on Jan 31, 2007 2:16 PM EST reply actions

me:

Games: 160
At-Bats: 512
Hits: 145
Batting Average: .287
2B: 36
3B: 5
HR: 26
RBI: 84
BB: 81
K: 51
SB: 6

by Galt on Jan 31, 2007 5:03 PM EST reply actions

overrated

I think Quentin in general is being overrated....

Games 126
At-Bats 422
Hits 114
Batting Average .271
2B 22
3B 3
HR 13
RBI 69
BB 60
K 79
SB 3

.271/.355/.444

by haven on Jan 31, 2007 10:20 PM EST reply actions

re

while i agree that Quentin will not be a superstar as some on here think, i do believe he will be an above average player for many years. Your predictions would indicate the same thing. A .355ob% as a first year player shows very high value, even if he doesn't become a slugger. That ob% equates to a .385-.410 in his prime, or very good for a #1 or #2 hitter

by ScottAZ on Feb 1, 2007 9:59 AM EST up reply actions