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Some Grade Changes

Some NEW grade changes.

Matt Garza, from Grade A- to Grade A
Anthony Swarzak, from Grade B+ to Grade B
Chuck Lofgren, from Grade A- to Grade B+
Tim Lincecum, from Grade A to Grade A- (because of college pitch counts, not his size, which doesn't matter to me)
Jose Tabata, from Grade A- to Grade B+
Fernando Martinez, from Grade A- to Grade B+
Travis Snider, from Grade A- to Grade B+
Van Pope, from Grade C to Grade C+
Yusmeiro Petit, C+
Andrew Sonnanstine from Grade C+ to Grade B-
Kevin Kouzmanoff stays at B due to age and injury history.

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missed one?
Carlos Gonzalez, from Grade B+ to Grade A-

by Galt on Jan 3, 2007 11:22 AM EST   0 recs

i like em all
the only i might've kept is tabata...

by daveh33 on Jan 3, 2007 11:32 AM EST   0 recs

Tabata/Martinez
Good call there.  The kids both ooze with talent, but are so young, have such short track records and are so far from the bigs.  In those circumstances, it's hard to justify an A- rating.  Simply too much uncertainty.  

by nyr2k2 on Jan 3, 2007 11:45 AM EST   0 recs

Felix
I'm curious as to what grade Felix got when he was 18?

by joltin joe dimaggio on Jan 3, 2007 11:59 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Felix
King Felix (If that's the one you are asking about) got a B+ in the 2004 book and an A in the 2005 book. He turned 18 in April 2004. If that's not the Felix you are asking about I apologize for the irrelevant information.

by bl on Jan 3, 2007 1:51 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

No Chris Young love?
I just drafted him two minutes ago!

by The Colonel on Jan 3, 2007 11:54 AM EST   0 recs

Young
Agreed. He got an A- last year, what did he do to deserve a lower grade this time around?

by flyby4553 on Jan 3, 2007 12:12 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Ditto
If anything, his stock seems to be rising, so a downgrade from last year's rating seems odd.

by CubsFan on Jan 3, 2007 12:19 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Young
Unless John has changed his mind, he stated in the D-Backs top 20 thread that he was raising Young's grade to an A-.  I'm guessing most of these guys are new changes, with the exception of the Twins players.
I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Jan 3, 2007 12:32 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

young
john did say at one point that he'd already decided to change young to an A-.  whether he's changed his mind again, or he considered that the official notification and so omitted that change from this list, or he just forgot that one, i couldn't say.  

by wily mo on Jan 3, 2007 12:33 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

grade changes
This list is NEW grade changes. It doesn't count ones I've already done.

by John Sickels on Jan 3, 2007 1:56 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

grades
John,  how about Bowyer, Humberto, and Whelan?  thanks

by JackMaha on Jan 3, 2007 10:32 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

travis snider
just curious to know why you changed his grade. 18 year old dominated the APP league and very well could make it to AA next season

by rangersfan24 on Jan 3, 2007 11:57 AM EST   0 recs

If that's the case
Tyree Hayes, a Rays SP prospect, who pitched pretty dominantly at the age of 17 in the Appy league.

by The Rocc on Jan 3, 2007 12:08 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

does he have the potential of snider?
never heard of him, but the grade of one should not affect the grade of the other

by rangersfan24 on Jan 3, 2007 12:17 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

He's got the pedigree
Son of Yankees player, Charlie Hayes

Here's his stats:
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Tyree-Hayes.shtml

by The Rocc on Jan 3, 2007 12:29 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

well
if hes got the POTENTIAL, then yes he should be ranked up there as well. but i dont know anything about him, and as i said before a hitter and a pitcher shouldnt even be compared for grades. i wasnt even criticizing John, I was just asking for an explanation. If his answer is that his sample size is too small, I can accept that

by rangersfan24 on Jan 3, 2007 12:35 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

subject
Guys are only good if you have heard of them? Maybe if you don't know anything about a guy you should not take part in a conversation about him. Just an idea.

by Josh on Jan 3, 2007 2:15 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Hahahaha
This gave me a chuckle

by The Rocc on Jan 3, 2007 2:29 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Huh?
Because an 18 year old kid dominates rookie ball he's going to skip three levels and play in AA the following season?  I doubt it.  I know you're saying he could end up in AA, but with A-, A, and A+ still in between where he finished and AA, I just think you're rushing things a bit.
I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Jan 3, 2007 12:29 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

But But But...
Yeah, that's alot of ground that he's got to make his way through. I doubt that he'll top off at High A, myself. Toronto doesn't need to rush any of their good prospects to the majors, just give them time to grow.

by The Rocc on Jan 3, 2007 12:32 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

i didnt say
he WILL, i said he COULD, and he does have the potential

by rangersfan24 on Jan 3, 2007 12:41 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Man...
I'm not going to start another big deal with you, but read what I wrote.  I know you said he COULD end up in AA, I mentioned that.  And while Snider has a lot of potential, it's not likely he just moves up from Rookie Ball to AA in the span of year, unless he's the next A-Rod or Pujols, it just won't happen.  
I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Jan 3, 2007 12:49 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

what?!
why dont you want to argue with me? LOL im jk. i was just curious to why John not only dropped his grade, but dropped it two levels, thats all

by rangersfan24 on Jan 3, 2007 1:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

apparently
i cant add. 1+0=1 i had to call an old professor of mine to figure that one out. one grade drop is fine considering he has had very limited action

by rangersfan24 on Jan 3, 2007 4:56 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

and ya
i didnt say hed skip all three levels. i think he will advance quickly through them. and would it really be a disappointment if he didnt make AA as a 19 year old? he'll definitely be there as a 20 year old

by rangersfan24 on Jan 3, 2007 12:43 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Ok
If he advances 4 levels in a year, while it's not technically skipping them, that's basically what is happening.  No one said it would be a disappointment if he didn't make AA at age 19, hell it wouldn't be a disappointment if he didn't make AA at age 20.  The kid is going into his first full season of pro ball, and there's nothing wrong with him spending a year in A ball and then a year in High A.  He's so young it can't hurt.
I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Jan 3, 2007 12:54 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

may have missed it somewhere...
but how about some grades for Travis Bowyer, Humberto Sanchez, and Kevin Whelan?  thanks

by JackMaha on Jan 3, 2007 11:57 AM EST   0 recs

Yeah
I haven't seen the grades for Sanchez and Whelan, I wonder what they were.
Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Jan 3, 2007 1:02 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Kershaw
I always thought Kershaw at A- was a little high. I just dont see him on the same level right now as Adam or Andrew Miller, or now Lincecum as well (all also got A-'s). I dont see how his upside is that much greater than any of theirs and he is so much less experianced and further away. All 3 could be pitching in MLB next season while Kershaw is 3+ years away.

by flyby4553 on Jan 3, 2007 12:11 PM EST   0 recs

well i think people are very excited about kershaw
But i see your point about him being far away... but a lot of people think that Kershaw is the type of prospect ala hughes bailey who with a repeat perforance at the next level could be looked at in the same light as those 2.... not to mention hes a power lefty which is rare... but I agree that hes obviously further away then those guys.

I guess the question is.. does the grade represent how close they are to the majors.. how well they performed... how good they could possibly become... is there any standard to it... In johns book i believe he defines the grades as the type of player he can becomee (A's being all star calibre.. something like that)... if thats the case.. then it shouldnt matter how far they are away if the grade represents their potential... I guess the thing about the grades is they seem to mean different things for different people... e.g. sloweys grades represents his success last year, not his potential as most people dont see him being a dominant starter in the bigs... where kershaws grade represents his success and his potential to dominate at upper levels and the bigs....

Or maybe im just not clear on what a grade actually stands for?

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Jan 3, 2007 2:39 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

my understanding
there are, for example, different kinds of Bs.  you have to know something about the player in order to read the grade properly.  a B prospect in short-season ball is a different kind of player than a B prospect in AAA.  the guy in rookie ball is the sort of player who has the talent to grow into an A/A- prospect with a couple of years of normal progression, and will probably be at least something, but could flame out; the B prospect in AAA pretty much is what he is, and will likely be a regular but not a star.  

that's how i see it, anyway.  

so for a guy to get an A coming out of rookie ball, to my mind, he'd have to be an obviously special player, a once-every-five-or-ten-years griffey/a-rod type.  

if it was a measure of pure ceiling there would be more A guys in the low minors than in the high minors, by a lot.  and that wouldn't be right.  although a list like that would be useful information, in combination with the usual kind of list.

by wily mo on Jan 3, 2007 2:48 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

true
Its true that there are different types of "A" players etc. I just dont see how Kershaw's upside is that much better than either of the Miller's or Lincecum to make up for the fact that hes so inexperianced and far away.

by flyby4553 on Jan 4, 2007 3:04 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Sonnanstine
I think Sonny should get at least a B-, and more likely a B.  He moved up to AA and continued to be dominant.  He posted a 4.5 K/BB rate, averaged 7.4 K/9, and he keeps the ball in the yard.  I think if Charlie Haeger and Lance Broadway both get B- grades, Sonnanstine has to get at least the same grade, although I think he's truly a B grade prospect.
I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Jan 3, 2007 12:25 PM EST   0 recs

At worst
Sonnanstine should be higher than Josh Butler.

by Brickhaus on Jan 3, 2007 1:28 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Unless
There's something about Josh Butler that Rays fans don't know about.

I, myself, would have Hayes and Cobb in the rankings over Butler myself. However, that's just my opinion.

I don't think that Sonny will ever get the respect that he deserves as a minor leaguer, but he's one year from reaching the ultimiate goal as a minor leaguer and I know for a fact that he uses the pessimism towards him as a fuel to make himself better.

by The Rocc on Jan 3, 2007 1:48 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Josh Fields
I know this was debated in the White Sox list, but a B still seems low for Fields. I know he strikes out a lot, but Brandon Wood, Cameron Maybin, Evan Longoria, and Carlos Gonzalez do too, but that didn't prevent them from getting higher grades. I don't think Fields will be as good as any of the 4 I listed, but I do see him as more of a B+ than a B

by CubsFan on Jan 3, 2007 12:29 PM EST   0 recs

For the most part
All of those prospects that you listed, except Wood in my eyes, are great offensive and defensive prospects.

Fields, on the other hand, I've yet to hear much about his defensive skills(which may not be a good thing).

Wood has the 40 HR season, Maybin has superstar potential written all over him, Longoria flew through the minors at an unheard of rate and Gonzalez has been one of the top minor league overall hitting prospects for a couple of years.

Josh Fields doesn't really have the track record, as of yet, to deserve that grade.

by The Rocc on Jan 3, 2007 1:52 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Yusmeiro??
Wondering where Petit would be slotted?
" I looked in and there it was......a can o corn."

by awstruck on Jan 3, 2007 1:27 PM EST   0 recs

Petit
In the Marlins thread, John missed him and said he had to ponder the grade.  B+ in last year's book.  Am wondering what he is this year too!

by The Colonel on Jan 3, 2007 2:01 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Petit and hurley
I too was wondering about yusmeiro petit.

Also i dont think eric hurley deserves a grade a-. When i see a- i think front line pitcher and i see hurley more as a #2 or #3 type pitcher

by FishHead on Jan 3, 2007 1:37 PM EST   0 recs

Blake Hawksworth
In my opinion, Hawksworth is a B- not a C+

He has overcome his injury problems(which weren't that big of a problem when you realize it was just 1 arm injury).
He was topping out at 95 MPH and sitting low 90s.  He has the best change up in the system.  He has developed his curveball.
Hawksworth has the potential to be the #2 behind Carpenter.

by UncleBuck44 on Jan 3, 2007 1:48 PM EST   0 recs

Lincecum/Garza
Gotta disagree on ranking Lincecum below Garza, but it seems that peer pressure took control here. I could see ranking them evenly, but Lincecum's stuff seems better than Garza's and his ceiling does as well.

As I said in the original SF Giants thread:

"First off, Garza started 2006 in High-A which is the same level that Lincecum dominated in 2006. He was in the pitcher friendly FSL and posted a 1.42 ERA with a 5.48 H/9, 2.23 BB/9, and 10.76 K/9 in 44.1 innings.

Let's examine Lincecum last year in High-A in a hitter's league (it's the park factors just as much as the talent, so don't give me the BS that some guys were promoted to AA). Including the postseason, Lincecum posted a 1.81 ERA with a 4.67 H/9, 3.37 BB/9, and 15.05 K/9 in 34.2 innings.

Besides the walk rate, which was respectable, Lincecum dominated High-A and put up a far superior K/9 while allowing a hit less per 9 than Garza."

Stick to your instinct John... don't let the voices in the crowd sway you away from Lincecum based on unfounded prejudice of size.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Jan 3, 2007 3:01 PM EST   0 recs

That's swell
that Lincecum pitched better than Garza at lower levels, but Garza was stellar at higher levels.  Higher levels should certainly count more than lower levels.

If Lincecum continues to pitch lights out at AA and AAA like Garza did, then sure, he'd be the better prospect.

But that's like saying that because Verlander had a better rookie season than Jake Peavy did, he should be considered the better pitcher.

Garza, like Peavy is more proven and therefore should be rated higher.

by Galt on Jan 3, 2007 5:38 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Spoken like an actuary
It's wrong to assume that John is going just on numbers, but factors in intangibles (i.e.  "stuff", whether the player is playing in the American League or in the comical National League). I'm sure Garza will be a solid major leaguer, but I'll argue to my deathbed that Lincecums ceiling is higher than Garzas.

Take it from someone who has seen both pitch, the level by which Lincecum overpowers hitters far surpasses Garza (not just in "the numbers", but how he makes the hitter look).

by fartballs on Jan 3, 2007 6:08 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Well
the reason why Lincecum pitched in A is because HE WAS IN COLLEGE.

by yoda1 on Jan 3, 2007 7:12 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Garza had been.....
... in college also and went to A ball the year before.

I cant argue with Johns ranking of them.

Garza has already excelled at high levels and had outstanding stuff. I watched him face the Tigers at one point and although his line for the game ended up poorly, he really looked like a frontline starter at times. He has good control, electric stuff and has excelled at high levels - an A prospect to me.

Lincecum I love. His stuff is amazing and that K rate, even as a college pitcher in A ball, is outstanding. He has great stuff and a deceptive/unique delivery. He looked great in the low minors, but still has to show something against better competition. His walk rate was also a bit concerning. He also was worked hard in college as John and many others have pointed out, and as such he has a bit higher risk of injury (Garza has no history of being overworked or arm trouble that I know of). With the problems I have to say he sounds like an A- to me. Lincecum certainly has a bit more upside, but is much riskier.

Personally, Im a whore for upside and so I would rank Lincecum a bit higher I feel, but its close and I can see it being the other way.

Just me rambling and my thoughts
Take care

by grozzy on Jan 3, 2007 8:48 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Dukes
I'd still argue Dukes deserves the A you've said his talent merits.  It's not as though he's not going to get to the majors.  There are always going to be teams that will take on contentious but exceptionally talented players.
God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 3, 2007 5:19 PM EST   0 recs

subject
I have to agree. If any grade is going to look bad 5 years from now it will be that Dukes grade. Come on John you know you want to move him up. Since when do you have to be a good person to play good ball. he just needs a note that says he doesn't play well with others.

by Josh on Jan 3, 2007 5:36 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I'd argue the A
He's got good plate discipline yes.

But he averages only about 15 homers a year, and in the last three years, he's dramatically reducd his stolen bases, while only being successful about 2/3 of the time.

He's only hit over .300 once in his ML career, and he barely has an .800 OPS over 1,500 AB.

I understand that he's been a little young (though no more than a year or two) for his level, but his numbers really haven't been all that great.

If he ends up a .280/.350/.500 guy who hits and steals about 15-20 a year, is that really an A prospect?

I don't understand the fawning over Dukes, especially given the fact that he's a complete jackass.

by Galt on Jan 3, 2007 5:47 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

well...
Well, let's assume your .280/.350/.500 estimate is reasonable. That would be an 850 OPS, and in any given year there are usually only 20 or so full-time major league outfielders who post an 850+ OPS.

So he wouldn't be a superstar, but he'd certainly be among the best in the game at his position (especially when considering defense) if he was able to stay on the field for 150+ games.

by FI on Jan 3, 2007 6:00 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Just a few things...
I do think your estimates are pretty close, if not on the low end. He's hit well over 280 at every stop outside of his rookie year, and his PD (combination of walk rate and k rate) has been improving over the past three years. So I think something like 300-400-550 is also well within reason.

I'd say you can't look at his overall career and judge him properly. You have to look at his trends.

He's been cutting down his K rate the past three years. His walk rate was the best in his career last year. His XBH rate also has been trending up. So statisically, you'll be decieved into thinking he's a lesser player by factoring in his first couple of years equally to his last couple.

Then tools-wise, from everything I've read, he's as good as anyone in the minors.

But, some people will like him and others won't. I think his statistical trends and tools show that he could be considered an A prospect.

by beastball on Jan 3, 2007 6:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Heh...
yeah, we were writing basically the same thing at the same time.

I think the Bay comp is pretty fair given his minor league record. His year in AAA at 24 is what really revealed his potential, but before that, at least at first glance, his numbers were Dukes like.

by beastball on Jan 4, 2007 12:13 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

the best thing about him
is his trends.  he was a raw tools guy when he started, but his numbers have been getting better as he moves up.  that means skill development and an ability to learn and adapt.  that's a huge and underappreciated factor, i think, and it's why i love both dukes and chris young so much.  they're smart, adaptable players who'll keep getting better.  

his homer totals are unimpressive, but his AB totals have always been fairly low for some strange reason.    

another thing to keep in mind is the park in durham is a fake fenway with a giant green monster in left field; dukes is a righty line drive hitter who's said to hit laser shots off that thing on a fairly regular basis.  his XBH% was 36% last year, better than delmon's over 2 years in that park (31%).  of course delmon has had his own mysterious power problems.

i don't think he'll be much of a basestealer, but i'm almost positive he'll have more than 15-20 homer power.  i see him as more of a .290/.380/.550.  

i'm looking at the list of outfielders from last year, looking for the closest comp to what i think he'll be like, and i'm not finding anybody like what i have in mind.  the closest match in OBP and SLG is vlad, but he's not vlad, he doesn't hit for that kind of average and vlad only walks because people bounce pitches in terror.  sizemore's ratios are all close but he's nothing like sizemore either.  jason bay?  i don't know.  but at any rate i think he has the talent to get a house in that statistical neighborhood.  

by wily mo on Jan 3, 2007 6:17 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

AB Totals
"but his AB totals have always been fairly low for some strange reason. "

You mean reasons like he has been suspended from the team?

by drwmsu1 on Jan 3, 2007 8:43 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

*bonk*
Really walked into that one man...
God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 3, 2007 8:51 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

no, no
that can't be why.  it's really weird, he just never seems to play a full year.  maybe they only play 7 inning games in the minors?  does anybody know?

by wily mo on Jan 3, 2007 8:57 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

comp
Bobby Abreu

by FI on Jan 4, 2007 9:52 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Fine
if you want to argue his talent, that's one thing.  
John's grades as I understand them are a combination of talent and liklihood of reaching their ceiling.   John stated that he believes him to be a Grade A talent.  Dukes' behavior has not slowed down his development (he repeated half a season of High A but his High A stats from the season before probably warranted that) or stood between him and his ceiling, teams will give him playing time.  If he were in A ball that'd be one thing, but he's not.  he deserves an A.  A- at worst.
Plus, if Josh and I agree, it must be so.
God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 3, 2007 6:27 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Wow...
And how for some useless info..

Bumping down Martinez makes Pelfrey the only A- or higher prospect in the NL East...

by MetfanBren on Jan 3, 2007 8:37 PM EST   0 recs

Angel Villalona
John,
What do we think of this guy?  

Anyone else on here care to express any knowledge / opinion on him?

Thanks.

by rico51 on Jan 3, 2007 10:51 PM EST   0 recs

there was a diary on him
just scroll down you should see it.
"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Jan 3, 2007 11:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Omar Poveda
John, having Poveda as an ungraded honorable mention is criminal in my mind.
"When you can hit, you can hit, and he can hit." -Tom Grieve on Michael Young.

by thedirkatron on Jan 3, 2007 11:10 PM EST   0 recs

Missing grades?
Has John posted grades for Edward Campusano, Jesus Flores, Nick Masset, or Joakim Soria anywhere in diaries/notes?

by hungry hipo on Jan 4, 2007 10:25 AM EST   0 recs

If I may add one to the list...
Emil Fruto, RP, once of the Mariners, now of the Nationals...minor league career k/9 of around 10, but a BB/9 of around 4 also, but still only 22/23...

by cooper7d7 on Jan 5, 2007 10:26 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Snider
I can understand the demotion, it only because he's so young and still in the potential bracket. So its hard to put such a definitive stamp on him. Still, I still think talent wise he is an A-. But I guess that will come with age...

by eeleye on Jan 4, 2007 12:08 PM EST   0 recs

tresilicoosmak
John, fyi any posts from the above user name are spam.  

by NYCRoyal on Jan 4, 2007 1:17 PM EST   0 recs

Angel Salome
I still think Angel Salome is clearly a B-.

by battlekow on Jan 4, 2007 5:05 PM EST   0 recs

Love all the changes...
Its like you read my mind...

...or my comments.

I think if you list all the A- guys now its a much tighter group, makes a lot more sense. Big picture all these moves make sense and make everything fit better. Snider, Lofgren, Martinez, and Tabata all fit MUCH better... or at least where I thought they were going to be originally. I like it a lot.

by alskor on Jan 5, 2007 4:51 AM EST   0 recs

salty
got the top 50 list.  it's like christmas in january, or boxing day in my pants.  question: i'm noticing that salty is ranked higher than some guys who got B+ grades.  does that mean his grade's been changed?  if so i haven't seen it noted anywhere.  

this is a question for after john is prepared to talk about baseball again.

by wily mo on Jan 5, 2007 6:32 PM EST   0 recs

Garza
If it was me he would be an A- or B+ but then it's not about me :).

Garza did get rocked in his MLB debut and for people screaming sample size the same can be said for each of his stops this year. He only faced a few teams twice and I don't think he faced a single team three times all year.

I do like him but why is he different from what everyone said about Baker last year? Garza is solid but definitely not a can't miss IMO.

What am I missing?

Arthur: "Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left!" Black Knight: "Yes I have." Arthur: "Look!" Black Knight: "It's just a flesh wound!"

by pedrophile on Jan 6, 2007 11:31 PM EST   0 recs

well
his numbers in A I take with a grain of salt since he is old for the league, even AA he is a bit advanced for - but they are very good K/9 numbers I'll grant you that.

In AAA his numbers were fantastic but the k/9 did suffer considerably.

Of course with all his numbers there is the sample size issue. This is nothing to hold against Garza - it's just the uncertainty factor I'm talking about.

Honestly - the numbers I'm more impressed with him is both the hits per nine and even more the HR rate which really puts him in a much better position than Baker ever was.

Arthur: "Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left!" Black Knight: "Yes I have." Arthur: "Look!" Black Knight: "It's just a flesh wound!"

by pedrophile on Jan 7, 2007 8:48 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Yes
I agree with all that you said.  But I don't understand how B+/A- is the conclusion from that.

Just a year removed from college, Garza has posted a combined sub-2.00 ERA while advancing three levels (with dominant K/9, BB/9, H/9, HR/9, and four MLB-ready pitches) and contributed at the MLB level.  Has a pitching prospect ever done that?  I don't know, but if so, I bet whoever it was turned out OK.

Let's not forget that Garza made significant gains on his fastball velocity and proved that he can throw his slider and curveball as MLB out pitches.  Yes, he had trouble adjusting to MLB batters.  So does nearly every young pitcher.

There is nothing not production, not indicator stats, not stuff, not stamina, not makeup, not injury history, not pedigree, that could possibly knock Garza from a straight-A prospect in my mind.

by limozeen on Jan 7, 2007 6:39 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

yeah
but you are a Minnesota fan ;)

I can understand why people will rank him an A prospect. I just think straight A ranking should be for players with no questions. And until I see Garza without the sample size issue I wouldn't rank him that high. I think an A- would be more appropriate.

Arthur: "Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left!" Black Knight: "Yes I have." Arthur: "Look!" Black Knight: "It's just a flesh wound!"

by pedrophile on Jan 7, 2007 11:46 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Petit
Yusmeiro Petit is a C+ grab bag prospect now?

by jaguar2490 on Jan 9, 2007 11:00 AM EST   0 recs

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