that's how i see it, anyway.  

so for a guy to get an A coming out of rookie ball, to my mind, he'd have to be an obviously special player, a once-every-five-or-ten-years griffey/a-rod type.  

if it was a measure of pure ceiling there would be more A guys in the low minors than in the high minors, by a lot.  and that wouldn't be right.  although a list like that would be useful information, in combination with the usual kind of list.

Take it from someone who has seen both pitch, the level by which Lincecum overpowers hitters far surpasses Garza (not just in "the numbers", but how he makes the hitter look).

I'd say you can't look at his overall career and judge him properly. You have to look at his trends.

He's been cutting down his K rate the past three years. His walk rate was the best in his career last year. His XBH rate also has been trending up. So statisically, you'll be decieved into thinking he's a lesser player by factoring in his first couple of years equally to his last couple.

Then tools-wise, from everything I've read, he's as good as anyone in the minors.

But, some people will like him and others won't. I think his statistical trends and tools show that he could be considered an A prospect.

his homer totals are unimpressive, but his AB totals have always been fairly low for some strange reason.    

another thing to keep in mind is the park in durham is a fake fenway with a giant green monster in left field; dukes is a righty line drive hitter who's said to hit laser shots off that thing on a fairly regular basis.  his XBH% was 36% last year, better than delmon's over 2 years in that park (31%).  of course delmon has had his own mysterious power problems.

i don't think he'll be much of a basestealer, but i'm almost positive he'll have more than 15-20 homer power.  i see him as more of a .290/.380/.550.  

i'm looking at the list of outfielders from last year, looking for the closest comp to what i think he'll be like, and i'm not finding anybody like what i have in mind.  the closest match in OBP and SLG is vlad, but he's not vlad, he doesn't hit for that kind of average and vlad only walks because people bounce pitches in terror.  sizemore's ratios are all close but he's nothing like sizemore either.  jason bay?  i don't know.  but at any rate i think he has the talent to get a house in that statistical neighborhood.