Johan Santana

by drjim on Jan 3, 2007 11:03 AM EST Comment 49 comments

This is not a question about what he could get on the open market if he is a free agent but rather what kind of package could the Twins get if they traded him next offseason (assuming he has a similar year to the last 3 and doesn't get hurt).

He is signed for two more years so there is no way the Twins would trade him now. I have to think they are doing everything they can to extend him this offseason, but if they are unable to, they would almost be forced to trade him instead of letting him hit the open market and lose him for nothing. I think Terry Ryan would prefer to trade him to the NL, but he would probably go for the best package.

Does an established MLB starter, a top pitching prospect, and two young (either prospect or pre-arb) bats sound about right? What team and what players could be involved?

By the way, the thought of losing Santana does make me physically ill.

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well...

he would have to go to a team that can afford to pay him $20M plus per year...who is that? The Yankees...

Maybe something like:
Cano, Wang, Hughes and Tabata
for
Santana and Luis Castillo

Interestingly the Yankees have acquired prospects and tried to clear some salary this off-season. Perhaps in an attempt to make a run at Santana next off-season?

by bunner19 on Jan 3, 2007 12:19 PM EST reply actions

Except that

That will never happen. The Yankees woud not trade Hughes and Tabata both basically considered untouchable, not even for Johan. In addition, the Twins really don't need the pitching, they need a big slugger. I'd say more realistically an offer of Cano, Giambi, and Betances or Chamberlain could get it done. I still don't think that's perfect, but its closer IMO.

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Jan 3, 2007 12:26 PM EST up reply actions

DIsagree

The Twins would want more established players instead of Betances or Chamerlain. And the Yankess would have to be paying all of Giambi money. Which they could do easily but something you didn't mention.

Wang, Cano, Humberto +1 Mid Level

for

Santana

by JDSussman on Jan 3, 2007 12:52 PM EST up reply actions

DIsagree on money

I'm not convinced that since Cashman's takeover the Yanks would be willing to pay $40 million for a single year of Santana, great as he may be. If they had to pay him $20m plus Giambi's $20m, I really don't think they'd do it.

by MontrealMets on Jan 4, 2007 1:10 AM EST up reply actions

I Really Doubt

That the Yankees would turn down trading for Johan, even if it meant giving up Hughes and Tabata.

And IMO, the Angels, with their loaded farm system, would be the ideal trade partner for the Twins if they were to pursue the idea of trading Johan.

Sickels for President.

by StatFreakNYM on Jan 3, 2007 1:15 PM EST up reply actions

I agree with the LAA part

I think an Angels trade of Wood, Morales, Sean Rodriguez, McPherson and Lackey would probably be the best offer for both teams. Hillenbrand can take third (albeit with mediocre Defense) with Garret at DH and Kotch at 1st. They would have both Santanas plus Weaver to front the rotation, and Aybar can take over at SS in '08. Twins fill their gaping holes at DH and 3rd with power bats who still have plenty of potential, and get a super-prospect in Wood to take over for at SS, and a strong #2 pitcher, who can take 3rd if D-Mac gets injured. Also S-Rod can come up to take over for Castillo when his legs give out, who IMO is a much better prospect than Alexi Casilla especially in terms of upside. NO WAY would the Twins turn down that offer, they would have one of the potentially strongest young offenses down the road in baseball to go with a still very strong pitching staff. Only question is realistically if Bill Stonehead would choke on the offer seeing so much of his young talent without room in the majors get sent away, we've seen it before.

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Jan 3, 2007 6:19 PM EST up reply actions

So...

Let me get this straight...you think trading Hughes & Tabata is "too much" but you think Wood, Morales, Rodriguez, McPherson, and Lackey is a more even offer?

Sickels for President.

by StatFreakNYM on Jan 4, 2007 5:37 PM EST up reply actions

deal would make no sense for the yanks

id rather keep cano, wang e.t.c., johan is unquestionably elite, but i feel the yanks are finally heading in the right direction as an organization, time to let youth take hold.

by realityconquest on Jan 3, 2007 1:05 PM EST reply actions

Santana

Players who are that good almost never get as much in return as they're worth. I might expect a package similar to what the Ms got for Randy Johnson (one top pitching prospect, one top hitting prospect and a good pitching prospect, all major league ready or close) or the Indians got for Bartolo Colon (two top hitting prospects and a good pitching prospect, all major league ready). The kind of deal that might make sense (and would be in line with previous deals of this caliber of pitcher) would be Santana for Laroche, Elbert and Hu, or something along those lines.

by Brickhaus on Jan 3, 2007 1:35 PM EST reply actions

Sizemore a "top hitting prospect"?

i really don't think he was considered a top hitting prospect at the time of this deal.......sure he got the big bonus, but when he was traded two and a half years later he had shown no power (not just HR's, but no double power) and was hitting around .250......

it wasn't until after the trade that he really hit his stride.......

by Wheelhouse on Jan 3, 2007 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

You're right

Sizemore picked up as a prospect later, but Phillips and Lee were both top 30 prospects at the time of the trade, so the point still generally stands.

Another precedent is the Pedro trade, where they got a top-10 level arm (Pavano) and a projectable arm who turned into a decent prospect eventually (Armas).

by Brickhaus on Jan 3, 2007 3:07 PM EST up reply actions

subject

Sizemore picked up as a prospect as soon as he was traded. He hit .343/.451/.483 in 172 ab's for Kinston that year. He was showing signs before the trade, but the new home was just what he needed.

by Josh on Jan 3, 2007 5:30 PM EST up reply actions

Brevard County is in the FSL!

Hello everyone,

Brevard County, the last Expos affiliate Sizemore played for, resides in the FSL, a notorious pitcher's league. Plus, if I recall correctly, Brevard County was a pitcher's park as well, so while Sizemore's numbers were far from impressive, the league and park contexts also have to be taken into account regarding Sizemore's numbers.

The Carolina League is more neutral, or even hitter-friendly, compared to the Florida State League. Plus, if I'm correct, Kinston is pretty much neutral or even a bit hitter-friendly as well, which also helped Sizemore demonstrate a dramatic turnaround after he came into the Indians' system. Of course, his continuing evolvement of his skills also helped to fuel his dramatic turnaround as well, but I'm suspecting the Indians probably were confident of this turnaround, which is all the more reason they wanted him included in the Colon deal.

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jan 4, 2007 8:06 PM EST up reply actions

The dodgers are a team

that might work out
kemp, LaRoche and Chad Billingsley.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Jan 3, 2007 1:38 PM EST reply actions

Nobody

has EVER, in the history of baseball, given up that kind of package for a player, at least that I can think of. Santana's good, but that type of a package for anyone is a pipe dream. Whenever that quality of player is given up, it's before they've hit the majors, not after a good rookie year.

A few thoughts, if the trade was made today of packages that might be feasible:

Hughes, Melky and Clippard from the Yankees
Elbert, LaRoche and Hu/Ethier from the Dodgers
Wood and Santana from the Angels

by Brickhaus on Jan 3, 2007 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

Hughes Melky Clippard....

.... is nowhere near enough.

I would think Hughes Tabata Clippard maybe, probably someone like Betances Sanchez or Chamberlin before Clippard there (someone with a live arm/high upside). If that. I think Cano, Hughes, Betances would probably do it.

from the Dodgers I dont think Elbert, LaRoche, Hu/Either would be enough.

Something like Billingsley, (Kemp or laroche), and (Greg Miller or Blake Dewitt or someone like that, maybe Hu or Ethier)

That Angels offer would be the closest of those and might be good as it, though they may want another lower level prospect tossed in.

I think that someone would have to give them something great to make it work because he is unquestionably the best pitcher in baseball right now and hes still very young. And he has no history of injury or overworking. He is the ultimate pitcher to trade for and because of the market for pitchers, it would take an unparallelled deal.

by grozzy on Jan 3, 2007 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

You could

easily make the argument that 1 year of Santana isn't close to being worth 6 years of Hughes. Anything the Yanks would give up on top of a Hughes would merely be window dressing. Once again, see the Pedro trade, which was very similar (Pedro for Carl Pavano, who was arguably the top pitching prospect in the minors at the time, and a PBTNL).

I realize the market for pitchers is crazy, but so is the market for just about everyone else. The market's just gone nuts overall, and I think that general trading precepts still apply.

by Brickhaus on Jan 4, 2007 12:17 PM EST up reply actions

First....

... Im sure the Yankees would pay up for more than 1 year of Johan. Second, while 6 years of Hughes could be worth more than 1 year of Johan, the World Series win that Johan would put them much closer to would probably be plenty important and worth it to them. There is no guarentee that Hughes will be worth 1 year of Johan, or one year of a much lesser pitcher. Hughes has plenty of risk with him still.

I think the Pedro trade is an example of why the Twins would get more than just Hughes. The Expos got ripped off only getting Pavano for Pedro because Pavano never really panned out. Plus the Twins are a contender and so they have the option of keeping him and staying in contention.

I think the fact that there would be more than just the Yankees going for Santana means that the price would go up past a Hughes + someone minor deal.

I still think Hughes, Tabata or Cano, and Betances/Chamberlin would be a good deal for both sides. Probably from the Yankees prospective, they would keep Cano and trade Tabata as Cano is important to the team currently.

by grozzy on Jan 4, 2007 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

Three trades

Frank Viola for Rick Aguilera, Kevin Tapani, David West, Tim Drumond and a fifth arm (forgot the name, Jack somebody).
Chuck Knoblauch for Eric Milton, Cristian Guzman, Brian Buchanon, and Danny Mota
A.J Pierzinski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonsor

None of those pieces of trade bait comes anywhere close to Santana. Santana's the best left-handed pitcher since Koulfax. Viola had one great year prior to the trade. Otherwise, he was just above average. Knoblauch was a very good second baseman, but he wasn't the best in the game. And AJ, well...

Deals like that can and do happen. My hunch is that Ryan extends Johan before next offseason, though. But if he can't, he would garner at least three major-league-ready guys plus a C+ prospect.

Here's my guess:

Ervin Santana
Brandon Wood
Kendry Morales
Joe Saunders

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 3, 2007 4:06 PM EST reply actions

Savage

Jack Savage. RHP. Great name, nothing else.

"Dying is no big deal. The least of us will manage that. Living is the trick." - Red Smith

by finman on Jan 3, 2007 4:33 PM EST up reply actions

Savage and Tapani . .

were part of this deal: December 11, 1987: (Savage) Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Los Angeles Dodgers to the New York Mets. The Los Angeles Dodgers sent Bob Welch and Matt Young to the Oakland Athletics. The Oakland Athletics sent Alfredo Griffin and Jay Howell to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Oakland Athletics sent Kevin Tapani and Wally Whitehurst to the New York Mets. The New York Mets sent Jesse Orosco to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

"Dying is no big deal. The least of us will manage that. Living is the trick." - Red Smith

by finman on Jan 3, 2007 4:36 PM EST up reply actions

Well said

by evilgenius on Jan 3, 2007 11:31 PM EST up reply actions

RE:

"Santana's the best left-handed pitcher since Koulfax."

I think Randy Johnson may have something to say about that. Considering Unit has 5 Cy Youngs and a World Series ring while Johan only has 2 Cys as of right now. Might be a bit premature to give him 3+ more Cy Youngs and vote him into the Hall of Fame already. I mean, doesn't he have to play 5 more years to even be considered for the HOF?

Johan is good, one of the best in the game right now, but let's not start giving each other handjobs just yet.

by Boxkutter on Jan 4, 2007 5:36 PM EST up reply actions

Qualtity versus quantity

Perhaps I should have said: No lefthander has put together three years as dominant as Santana since Koulfax. You can look up the numbers. Johnson certainly has a distinguished career, but he's never put together the consistent run of dominant seasons that Santana or Koulfax has. How lold was Johnson when he got his fifth Cy Young? Santana could very well have five Cy Youngs by age 30. Put another way, Johnson's rate stats are nowhere near as impressive as Santana's, though his counting stats are quite a bit better.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 4, 2007 6:49 PM EST up reply actions

koulfax?

i know he was a bit after your time, christy, but c'mon, keep up.

by wily mo on Jan 4, 2007 11:15 PM EST up reply actions

Wholeheartedly disagree....

I am not saying Santana is a bad pitcher, I think he is one of the best three or so in the game, and arguably the best. But I still say Johnson was better in his prime than Johan has been over the past three years. Johan may put up some better seasons to come, we shall see. But let's look at this (I hope this copies well into this format):

Johnson:
Year Record ERA CG IP K's K/9 K/BB
1997 20-4 2.28 5 213.0 291 12.30 3.78
1998 19-11 3.28 10 244.1 329 12.12 3.83
1999 17-9 2.49 12 271.2 364 12.06 5.20
2000 19-7 2.64 8 248.2 347 12.56 4.57
2001 21-6 2.49 3 249.2 372 13.41 5.24
2002 24-5 2.32 8 260.0 334 11.56 4.70

Santana:
Year Record ERA CG IP K's K/9 K/BB
2004 20-6 2.61 1 228.0 265 10.46 4.91
2005 16-7 2.88 3 231.2 238 9.25 5.29
2006 19-6 2.77 1 233.2 245 9.44 5.21

Now, Johan has a better K/BB ratio, but Johnson went much deeper into games thus helping out the bullpen, struck out anywhere from 2-3 more per 9IP, allowed less runs per 9 on average, and has several years with a much better winning percentage. Which rate stats are you talking about that Johnson's are no where near as good as Santana's?

by Boxkutter on Jan 5, 2007 6:13 AM EST up reply actions

The Big Unit

I think you're selling RJ a little short, but I'm not sure CY awards are the best measure. After all, Johan's deserved 2005 award was lost due to the inept 2005 Twins offense, and the "win-loss" voters. RJ had the tougher park for his 4 straight CY's, and Johan has had to contend with the DH. I definitely don't think it's a clear advantage to Johan, no matter how you slice it.

by BobbyMac on Jan 5, 2007 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

Similar trades?

Someone said that trades like this do happen, but I can't think of one in my lifetime(26 years). The closest thing that I can think of was the Pedro deal, but even then Pedro wasn't "Pedro" yet when he was shipped to the Sox. Johan has been the most dominant player in all of baseball over the last 3 years and I cannot think of another player of that ilk being dealt in his prime. So I think that citing other deals to try to extract what the trade value is does us no good.

That being said. What can the Twins do other than trade Johan? With Terry Ryan having to hand out contracts to Cuddyer, Mauer, and Morneau as well as Johan in the next 3 years, either the Twins need to go into 9 figures for payroll or pull off some trades. I hate the owners for not sticking to thier guns back in the mid-90's. A salary capped league would be the best thing for baseball in my opinion.

by Terry Ryan Jr on Jan 3, 2007 5:39 PM EST reply actions

Guess who has a full no trade clause?

by limozeen on Jan 3, 2007 5:59 PM EST reply actions

Ummmm....

Sidney Ponson?

:-)

Sickels for President.

by StatFreakNYM on Jan 3, 2007 7:42 PM EST up reply actions

That's just mean.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 3, 2007 10:54 PM EST up reply actions

Hey Now

I'm a Twins fan...

So I feel the pain too.

Sickels for President.

by StatFreakNYM on Jan 4, 2007 12:45 AM EST up reply actions

here you go

# limited no-trade clause 2006-08

* may block trades to 3 clubs in 05, 8 in 06, 10 in 07 & 12 in 08

* full no-trade clause for 2007-08 with top 3 in CY vote in 06 or 07

* full no-trade clause for 2009 with top 3 in CY vote in 08

and other info

# signed extension 2/05, avoided arbitration ($6.8M-$5M)
# 05:$5.5M, 06:$9M, 07:$12M, 08:$13.25M
# may earn award bonuses

* $25,000 for All-Star selection, 2nd in AL MVP vote or 3rd in CY vote
* $50,000 each for Gold Glove, AL MVP, LCS MVP or 2nd in CY vote
* $100,000 each for WS MVP, Cy Young award

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Jan 3, 2007 6:58 PM EST reply actions

No trade clause in 2009

You mean the Twins can't even trade him after his contract runs out in 2008? What's the world coming to?

You can't dust for vomit

by twinstalker on Jan 4, 2007 3:03 AM EST up reply actions

Santana would no doubt waive the clause

if it meant getting a 200M extension a year before his free agency is set to begin.......

by Wheelhouse on Jan 4, 2007 9:26 AM EST up reply actions

Sox

Unquestionably the Red Sox would be in on this (and the Twins would certainly exploit the Sox/Yankees rivalry to their benefit).
As for what kind of package... I think a lot of it would depend on how the Sox' bumper 2006 draft crop does this year but I expect Clay Buchholz's name would probably be involved in any package. Maybe Lester?

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 3, 2007 6:59 PM EST reply actions

yea

Twinkies would probably want Lester, Buchholz, and Ellsbury. That might be a hefty package, but the Twinkies have all the leverage in any deal involving Santana.

by doublestix on Jan 3, 2007 7:08 PM EST up reply actions

Yup

And as much as I like all three of those guys, I'd pay it (provided there was a negotiating window for an extension of course).

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 3, 2007 7:11 PM EST up reply actions

Well i think having a prized commodity

def helps wiht leverage.. but teams also know that if you cannot afford to bring him back.. u need to move him or you get nothing (other than maybe some draft picks).

I still doubt Minny will move him... because they are a competitve team. But the way the twins would have leverage is not because they have johan, but because other teams will want him so it will be a bidding war... but if teams know u want/need to unload a guy... they arent gonna give you and your not gonna get full value.. which is why you always see so many deadline deals that seem like the team didnt get much back... in general its better to trade the player over the winter... i think you can get more from teams (and you can get more teams involved, and you dont have a deadline before you cant trade the guy, looming.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Jan 3, 2007 10:40 PM EST reply actions

well

teams may realize that the twins need to move him....but....i don't think it will matter.

You are gonna have teams like Yanks, boston, angels, dodgers, texas, mets....* maybe few others * who will get in a bidding war for him.

He's so good it won't matter that we "need" to move him, you will be getting a guy still in his 20's who will probably have 3 cy youngs by then on top of his game.

There are 2 options with Johan Santana.

Twins sign him...great, you get a cy young.
we get a FREAKING prospect haul, of great young talent.

by hotshotschamp on Jan 4, 2007 3:03 AM EST reply actions

If he's traded...

First, I think the Twins will work on an extension after the arbitration season. Right now they're busy finagling contracts with the three arb studs.

As for a trading partner, I see the Dodgers as the most logical. Best farm system and in other league. Whoever said the Dodgers wouldn't give up Billingsley, LaRoche, and Kemp is obviously valuing these three at their highest possibly attainable value. When you actually consider what their "average" value will be (given their history, prospect status, and empirical evidence of similarly slated players), once again it's an easy quality for quantity trade for the Dodgers to make.

Santana is really the most valuable player in the game today because he's light years ahead of his closest competitor at his position, and his position is incredibly important.

Except for the fact that the Twins would have to face him, here's the trade I think I'd like to see: Santana for Santana, Wood, and Adenhart.

I'm not sure why anyone would think Terry Ryan wants to acquire McPherson.

As for the NYY trade, yes, the Yankees would give up Hughes and Tabata and Cano (personally don't even want him) and anyone else the Twins wanted who wasn't named Jeter. Again, the best pitcher in baseball who is entering his prime in a couple of years (although how can this not be his prime?) for some really good looking prospects and spare pieces? Hell yeah the Yanks would pull that trigger instantly if they had to to get him.

You can't dust for vomit

by twinstalker on Jan 4, 2007 3:21 AM EST reply actions

Light years

I don't know if I'd call him light years ahead of Halladay, especially when Halladay is signed for dirt cheap for the next 4 years relative to his market value.

Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Jan 4, 2007 11:34 AM EST up reply actions

subject

Just for shit and grins how about the cubbies. In another year veal will be a lot closer and could be looking real sweet. We could also add a CF like Pie. SO just to start we have Veal and Pie. I would think adding one more prospect would get us in the runnings. I don't know, it is real late here. just keep in mind the trade won't go down this winter so the players may be a little younger then some of the names I have seen mentioned.

by Josh on Jan 4, 2007 4:19 AM EST reply actions

veal and pie

well, that could... wait, is it lunchtime already?

by wily mo on Jan 4, 2007 6:34 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not sure cubs

have the spects' to get it done...

For someone to get traded a elite young talent will have to come back...ie - philip hughes, Homer Bailey, that caliber of player, not saying those guys per say.

philip hughes wouldn't be a bad option if worst came to worst and we had to deal him.

Liriano, phil hughes, garza, bonser...perkins/slowey rotation might be ok.

by hotshotschamp on Jan 4, 2007 5:54 AM EST reply actions

If Johan signs an extention

They are gonna have to give him an avg annual salary of at least 18 mil per year..

and Terry Ryan is already on the record as saying he will not invest in what he refers to as a double market (meaning everything costs double)... hes not buying in... so that means that hes not gonna pay johan in relation to this market... now if Johan says.. im happy with 15 per year , then i guess they can get it done.. but that type of thing doesnt happen to often.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Jan 4, 2007 11:53 AM EST reply actions

Since When

Was Johan not worth $18 million...no matter what the market looked like or was doing?

Even in a "down" market, there's no way Johan walks away with anything less than $15 million per year...and IMO while being a Twins fan, he's worth all of that and then some.

Sickels for President.

by StatFreakNYM on Jan 4, 2007 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

well do you really think

that on the open market johan wont get way more then 18 mil per year?

I think thats what ryan was saying... hes not gonna over pay for services... and some people would argue that paying too much for anyone 1 player never works out... im not sure i totally beleive that.. but for a team whos payroll stays towards the bottom.. it would be tough to committ 25 mil per year to one player and still field a great team (at least one would think so)

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Jan 5, 2007 2:42 PM EST reply actions

Question

What makes everyone think the Twins aren't going to keep Santana? Pohlad and Ryan have always said that they're not afraid to pay for talent, and the Twins' track record of keeping developed talent (Torii Hunter, Joe Nathan, Joe Mays, Santana's current deal) is nearly bulletproof.

The only players that the Twins "lost" to free agency had significant warts and have underperformed since leaving the team (Corey Koskie, Jacque Jones).

Keep this in mind. Once upon a time, the Twins had one of the premiere talents in baseball nearing free agency amidst skyrocketing salaries. That man's name was Kirby Puckett, and they gave him the largest contract in baseball history at the time.

Why would the Twins' near 100% retention rate of scouted talent change now that they've developed the best player in baseball?

by limozeen on Jan 5, 2007 6:11 PM EST reply actions