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Is Kansas City's Farm System Good?

Over on ESPN there are two articles today touting that KC has one of the best farm systems in baseball. Keith Law Ranks them as #4 in all of baseball and Rob Neyer says "I don't think anyone would argue that they have one of the best sytems in baseball."

So i don't know if i missed something along the way, but did Kansas City suddenly develop a great farm system? I know Gordon and Butler both rank in our top 6 and Hochevar is a top 30 guy (and even i think he should be higher). But do three great prospects make an entire system great? Maybe i need to look at their players a little more, but i thought those three were ALL they had.

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ya...
Well 2 players in the top 10 and another one in the top 25-30 really jacks it up...

The system has got much better though the past couples years, Baird's last couples drafts didn't totally SUCK.

John had 5 more B and B- guys

4 Chris Lubanski, OF, Grade B
5 Jeff Bianchi, SS, Grade B
6 Tyler Lumsden, LHP, Grade B (this grade may be too high, please comment)
7 Justin Huber, 1B-OF, Grade B-
8 Brent Fisher, LHP, Grade B-  (a real sleeper prospect)

17 Erik Cordier, RHP, C+ Rated very highly by Baseball America, electric stuff I heard from scout.com. Out for next year though, and has had injury rittled career. Would be B or B- without the injuries I think.

9 Mitch Maier, OF, Grade C+  (maybe B-?)
10 Billy Buckner, RHP, Grade C+

Could make a case for both those guys to be B+. Maier was a little older than would have liked, probably causing the C+. Buckner has a great knucklecurve rated one of the tops in the minors.

You could probably argue anywhere between 3-9. I rated it 5 somewhere else. Behind Rays, Dodgers, D-Backs, Yanks (about the same).

Bottom line...Gordon and Butler graduations this year, Hochevar's development and some lower pitchers breakouts will determine how it fairs next year.

by doublestix on Jan 26, 2007 5:36 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Top guys
Posted in several diaries about ranking systems was talk about giving huge bonuses for grade A players. The question is how much does that count. If a C+ 3B prospect with good power is a future PH against LHPs is worth 1 point what is a guy like Gordon worth that many people think is a many-time allstar, 12,16,24points?
"You hear a lot of things... because there are a lot of people talking." (Shamus original)

by Shamus on Jan 26, 2007 6:14 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They seem...
pretty top heavy to me. Obviously Gordon, Butler, Hochevar are the top 3 and I think Lubanski and Braun round out the top 5. I think they're likely in the top 10 but not in the best system in baseball. Off the top of my head, I'd pick the Devil Rays, Tigers, Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, & Diamondbacks ahead of them.

by Havok1517 on Jan 26, 2007 6:59 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rankings
Not to start bashing the Yankees but I really wouldn't put there farm system in the top ten. They have some interesting players at top. Particularly Philip Hughes, Humberto Sanchez, and Jose Tabata. There's also Joba Chamerblain, Ian Kennnedy, and J. Brent Cox but beyond that... there's not a hell of a lot. There's some other decent pitching prospects but the majority of them peformed well primarily because they were too old for their league.

I'm surprised nobody has gone on to mention the Rockies as one of the better farm systems. Possibly the best out of all of them. They have probably 17 prospects that could have some sort of future in the majors.

And as for the Royals. The top three are great but the next 10 - 13 aren't all that bad. They're actually quite good. Justin Huber, Tyler Lumdsden, Chris Lubanski, Mitch Maier, Ryan Braun, Chris Nicoll, Brent Fisher, Carlos Rosa, Luis Cota, Erik Cordier, Jeff Bianchi, Billy Buckner, and Angel Sanchez come to mind. I'd probably rank them behind the Devil Rays, Rockies, Angels, and Diamondbacks. Which would make them number five... pretty good.

by Angels and Demons on Jan 26, 2007 7:09 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

huh?
im not quite following you on the yankee pitchers being to old for thier leagues

Hughes certainly wasnt, neither is clippard, or betances, or kennedy. you could make a case for the players the yankees acquired for RJ being to old for thier leagues. the yankees have ton of intriguing prospects outside the top 10 like international signee jesus montero, BA HBL #4 prospect jeff marquez, and rehabbing christian garcia and mark melancon, and have a realistic shot at having 5 players on the community top 100, maybe even 6 ( if clippard gets in).

seems like a top system to me

by bmxstreetrider86 on Jan 26, 2007 7:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

clarification
I think he's saying that, besides the big-name prospects, the Yankees' pitching depth has been too old for their level of competition. So he's not talking about Philip Hughes.

I don't agree, for what its worth. Among all of the Yankees' average pitching prospects (Clippard, Karstens, Marquez...) none have been particularly old for their level of competition.

by FI on Jan 27, 2007 9:20 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Law
His article has the Yankees rated #5, the Dodgers rated #17, and says that the Reds have Homer Bailey and nothing else.  I get the feeling that prospect-watching is not something he takes real seriously.
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Jan 26, 2007 8:25 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

idk
i think its because he, accurately, values superstars, good players and nothing else

yes, its nice for the dodgers to have about 20 solid players who all have some shot to make the majors but in this era of astronomical spending by nearly every club and multi-million dollar contracts at nearly every position on the field as well as 1-4 in the rotations of most teams, is system depth actually worth that much? i'd take 3-4 stars then nothing over 15-20 good to solid players every day of the week...graduate the studs to complement existing good players then fill holes on the bench, pen and any open positions through free agency and trades

IMO these "solid" B- to C- guys are nothing but trade bait for deadline bullpen additions, MAYBE 1 or 2 of them surprises everyone and earns a spot on the bench or in the pen...and a system full of these guys is not enough to justify a top ranking...bottomline, its all about how good are your stars and how many stars do you have.

by robcast23 on Jan 26, 2007 10:22 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dodger depth?
Sure, the Dodgers have depth. And they don't have AS MANY potential superstars as last year, due to graduations, etc.

They do have four people ranked in the top 32 on the community prospect list: Andy LaRoche, Scott Elbert, Clayton Kershaw and James Loney. In the same range (which, I realize, is arbitrarily cut off to artificially favor the Dodgers), the only other team to have as many prospects is TB (Delmon, Brignac, the highly-questionable Dukes, and Longoria). TB is widely considered one of the top two organizations in baseball, and furthermore most people would be more likely to drop Dukes out of the "superstar" range than any of the Dodger prospects.

As for organizational depth, I would say there are plenty of other high upside prospects to complement pure "depth": Jon Meloan, Blake DeWitt, Kyle Orr, Josh Bell, Preston Mattingly, Bryan Morris, Justin Orenduff, Xavier Paul, etc. (I won't sit here and tell you Chin Lung Hu and Tony Abreu are exciting prospects.)

Therefore, I disagree with your assessment of the Dodgers system. However, I also disagree with your entire premise: that organizational depth is useless. First off, I would say that just having a lot of good arms throughout an organization is a HUGE benefit, due to the amount of attrition in pitching prospects, the unpredictability of year-to-year performance, etc. Second, and perhaps even more importantly, I would say you MAJORLY underestimate how much it benefits a team to have their bench/bullpen consist of pre-arbitration players from within one's own organization rather than mediocre, overly-expensive veteran free agents. Yhency Brazoban and Jason Repko save the Dodgers cash that can be spent on something more worthwhile than, say, Scott Eyre and Mark DeRosa (who are costing the Cubs just about $8 million).

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 27, 2007 12:51 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not all teams are spending astronomically!
Hello robcast23,

No offense, but organizations like the Twins, Indians, and A's don't spend astronomically, so their organizational depth means a great deal to those organizations, maybe moreso than to teams with large payrolls like the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees, though the Dodgers and Yankees seem to be trying to instill youth movements in the near future, so even those 2-3 teams are valuing their organizational depth than they have in the recent past.

The A's don't have much quality organizational depth at this point, but I think the Twins and Indians do; I think organizational depth should count in organizational rankings.  After all, not every stud turns out as projected (look at such players like Mark Prior, Dewon Brazelton, Jeremy Guthrie, Bobby Brownlie, etc., all of them rated very highly when they were drafted and in their early years in their respective farm systems; there are many more examples that could be named as well.)  

I don't think an organization should get a Top 10 ranking if all they have is 2-3 potentially great players and virtually NOTHING else behind them (like KC - #4 is way too high for them; Top 15 perhaps, probably Top 20, but #4?!  No way in my opinion; you need more than Gordon, Butler, and Hochevar to boost them that much, as they had to be between #20-#30 for the last few years, I would think); based on trends and such, it would be reasonable to presume that of those 3 potentially great prospects, one will turn out to be as good or better than projected, one will turn out to be solid, but not be quite as good as projected, and one will turn out to be pretty much a bust.  Sometimes, an organization will do better than those odds, and 2 will be good to great, but I don't think you can just presume that 2 or all 3 of them will all turn out as projected.

Now, do you really think that an organization should get a Top 10 or even Top 5 ranking just because of 3 potentially great prospects and nothing or little else?  I don't think so.

Especially for those organizations that can't spend lavishly like the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees, those C+ to B+ players can fill sizable holes on rosters like the Twins and Indians and allow them to contend for a WS Championship - they'd never be able to win one if they had to spend lavishly like the three aforementioned teams do.  

Without those C+ to B+ players filling holes on their rosters, the Twins and Indians would likely never be able to compete for a WS, which both have decent to good chances of doing over the next 5-10 years, mostly because they have strong, deep farm systems to go with solid, young, developing teams.  

Those two should definitely be Top 10 in the organizational rankings.  I think Law gave Minnesota a Top 10 rating, though I'm not sure on that, but not Cleveland, which I find to be erroneous, and not because I'm an Indians' fan - BA gave the Indians' farm system high marks for left-handed starting pitching depth and overall depth.  I can also say that the Indians have to be one of the deepest, if not the deepest, in terms of OF depth - not only is their ML OF crowded, but both their AAA and AA teams are stacked - Gutierrez, Choo, Francisco, and Snyder at AAA, with Crowe, Barton, Constanza, and Brown at AA.  I didn't even mention Drennen, who will likely be at High-A, nor another highly regarded, but little-known OF prospect, Roman Pena, who some compare to be very advanced for a HS prospect, like Drennen, and who will also likely be at High-A Kinston with Drennen.  

How is all that depth (starting pitching [Miller, Lofgren, the Lewises, Ness, Martin, etc.]; relief pitching [Sipp, Perez, Mujica, Wagner, Wright]; C [Toregas, McBride, Ramirez]; OF - [the ones I mentioned above]) not worthy of a Top 10 organizational ranking?  The more solid prospects you have, the more that will turn out to be at least solid, if not even above-average or stellar, ML players.  Your odds are much better of getting more of those players by having more quality prospects (i.e. depth) than by putting all your eggs into one basket of 3 great prospects, just like with stocks, because, chances are, not all 3 will live up to the hype, and sometimes, NONE of them live up to the hype.

So, respectfully, I disagree with your implication that organizational depth doesn't matter or is overrated; many small- and mid-market teams still rely heavily on their organizational depth to make Championship runs; it would be impossible for those teams to do so without that depth.  And, like I said, not every stud turns out, and NO farm system can produce stud after stud, no matter who is running the farm system or how many resources you have; there aren't that many studs out there to be had, certainly not enough to make a ML roster just from your farm system.  And like I said, not all organizations can lavishly spend like the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees.  So rating organizations higher just on a few prospects who are considered great isn't the most accurate way to rate farm systems in my opinion.  That's why I think Neyer made the comment that few, if any, would argue KC is a Top 5 system - they don't have the depth behind those potentially 3 great prospects to warrant that high of a ranking.

Just my 5 cents.  :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Feb 2, 2007 7:32 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Misreading Neyer's Quote
He was saying no one could argue that they have a top system.  Though I guess Law did.

by abbreviatedman on Jan 26, 2007 11:17 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Youre right
I totally missed the second part, but looking back i guess you can argue that they are in the middle of the pack. Gordon, Butler and Hochevar really do give them some serious top punch. I Think hochevar is a little underrated by a lot of folks.

Now that i know that Neyer wasn't on the bandwagon either i can breath a little. Keith Law, in my experience, doesn't know what he is talking about when it comes to baseball. I honestly think ESPN has him around to spout nonsense just to see if people are paying attention.

by yondaime4 on Jan 27, 2007 12:02 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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