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Terry Ryan- GENIUS?

The next time someone says that Terry Ryan is a GM genius or the BEST GM I shall point to this off season to refute such sentiments.

$4.3 for Carlos Silva
$3.1 for Ramon Ortiz
$1.0 for Sidney Ponson

Plus b/c of these contracts Garza, Baker, Perkins and even Slowey are blocked from the Starting Rotation.

Now they may put any or all of them in the pen, but look how they almost vanquished the prize arm of Liriano in the pen last year??

This is nuts and because the Twins are my second favorite team, it's maddening.

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I'm sorry
But have you looked at what the market has been this offseason?

8.4 million in one season for pitching depth is NOT enough to take away everything Ryan has done with this team over the past five years or so.  Please don't overreact to stupid little stuff.  

by Jgaztambide on Jan 19, 2007 5:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

How about
Last year's Tony Batista signing along with a TWO YEAR deal for the ever popular Juan Castro who is the type of player you can find at almost ANY triple A ballpark? Thus I'm not just looking at one season.

I acknowledge the market is out of whack, but let me just say that given a choice to start the year with Garza, Perkins, Baker/Slowey OR Ponson, Silva and Ortiz, I take the kids. I have no faith that the three "VETS" are going to do any better than the kids AND the kids come cheaper.

Isn't that what the Twins are worried about, money?

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Jan 19, 2007 5:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Don't forget
similar contracts to Luis Rivas, Cristian Guzman, and Henry Blanco.

And of course letting Big Papi walk because they didn't have the cabbage to bring him back.

by Yakker on Jan 19, 2007 5:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ponson
Regardless of the 1m cost;
Why anyone would even give this guy another shot is beyond me. Give the rotation spot to a young and talented player.
Fan of Fenway

by bodyiq on Jan 19, 2007 5:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Garza...
... will start in the rotation. Perkins may too though he and Baker will probably have to earn it.

Johan/Silva/Garza are probably set. Baker, Ponson, Ortiz and Perkins will fight for the last spots. Some time in AAA couldnt hurt Perkins if he doesnt earn a spot. Ortiz can work out of the bullpen and has in the past, I feel like Ponson can as well. Baker will probably get a rotation spot, and will just end up in AAA if he sucks etc.

Slowey needs more time in AA and some time in AAA. His stuff may not translate well to higher levels so they need to give him time to work his way up.

Probable rotation:
Santana, Garza, Silva, Baker, Ponson
Ortiz to Pen, Perkins to AAA

If Perkins shows up and looks ready, he will push Baker to AAA or Ponson to the pen, depending on how Baker looks.

like Jgaztambide said, its $4.1 million for some pitching depth, its not bad deal for a team with such a questionable rotation

by grozzy on Jan 19, 2007 5:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

You're
Forgeting about Boof and Garza starts in AAA Ryan has said I thinks he rushed him and he wasn't ready. The ponson ortiz sliva rotation willfail and they'll call up slowey Graza and Perkins.

He isn't blocking anyone ortiz is a one year deal they can DNF him at midseason and ponson is a STI yes it more expensive and worse but it's what he does TR doesn't trust young players. And they have to preform right away or they're on a short leash it's just the way they operate.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Jan 19, 2007 6:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bonser
Don't forget about Boofy...
Fan of Fenway

by bodyiq on Jan 19, 2007 6:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bonser had TJ today
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2733345323

just kidding

I just forgot him. I guess that just means that Garza is in that race for the 4th spot and could end up getting some time in AAA to work on some little things.

I really dont think that they are blocking the young guys so much as providing insurance. If Ponson or Ortiz arent pitching well and the young guys are, they arent going to hold the kids down.

They plan to be a competitive team this year and so they want to have as much pitching as they can. Neither was a hideous amount and neither was multi-year so really its not a big deal at all.

by grozzy on Jan 19, 2007 6:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

TR...
Was on KFAN today, a local Minneapolis radio station, and mentioned that Santana/Bonser/Silva are all locks for the opening day rotation, barring any setbacks.

I think he's planning on letting guys like Ponson, Ortiz, Garza, and Perkins duke it out for the other two rotation spots.

The Ponson deal isn't guaranteed, so the guy won't get a dime of the deal, to my understanding, if he doesn't make the team....and IMO, TR must see something in Ortiz to give him this kind of contract. Even though it's only for $3.1 million, it's still interesting that TR would give out that kind of money to a guy that posted a 5+ ERA in the National League in '06.

But I'm not going to rant and bash a guy that's put together 4 division titles in 5 years.

Sickels for President.

by StatFreakNYM on Jan 19, 2007 7:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I look at it as
8.3 million (4.3 + 3.1 + 1)for some dogs and it's especially disturbing when you consider the kids in the system. This isn't a barren system that doesn't have possible replacements.

Isn't there ANY one pitcher they could have paid that money to this year? Isn't Jeff Weaver better than these guys combined?

I can ONLY defend these three moves if NONE of the money is guaranteed. But to waste your time on these bums when the kids could take a chance is incomprehensible. Even if you look at last year's numbers you can't be hopeful these guys are better than what Garza and Baker did in their first year.

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Jan 19, 2007 5:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Durbin
Isn't he out of options?  What is his future with the Twins?

by drwmsu1 on Jan 19, 2007 6:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Looks like
he's in the the running for mop up duty along with one of the 3 lefthanded guys we signed to minor league deals.
1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Jan 19, 2007 6:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I Think
Ponson signed a minor league deal so that's not the issue.

Silva's xFIP the last three years are
4.78  4.16  5.09.
Weaver's xFIP the last three years are
4.57  4.30  5.05

Silva and Weaver seem like a wash performance wise.  Silva is the devil they know, but he is also cheaper and will require only a 1-year commitment.  He was reportedly not ready to pitch last year after the WBC and most of his sucking happened in April.  He lost his sinker last year.  Hopefully he shows up with the sinker plus a new splitter this year.

The signing that puzzles me is Ramon Ortiz.  I normally trust Ryan's scouting, but he is bad at free agent signings.  

It does make sense that Ryan feels that Garza, Perkins, and Slowey were rushed and/or not ready yet.  He has shown a lack of confidence in Baker who has an option left.

The rotation at the beginning of the year appears to be Santana, Bonser, Silva, Ortiz, and Baker/Ponson with Ponson/Baker, Garza, Perkins, and Slowey enhancing their repertoire and waiting their turn in Rochester.  If Baker or Ponson do not seize the opportunity in spring training, Perkins, Slowey, or more likely Garza could pencil themselves in with a strong showing.

If Silva or Ortiz crash and burn, there is still the 5th starter role and the Kyle Lohse exit strategy.

Ryan is very concerned because he used 10 different starters last year.  [Of course he may be guaranteeing that he do that again.]  He is risk averse and values veteran presence.  And he knows the Twins are uniquely positioned to challenge this year -- the last year that Hunter and Castillo are under contract.  

by lonestar on Jan 19, 2007 7:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Starters
No matter how bad they are, you can usually find someone to take their salary off your hands for a low-level prospect.  Keep in mind that all of these deals are 1 year, sacrifice nothing in the long-term, and are easily dumped if they suck.  $8.4MM is worth it if one of these guys puts up a sub 5.00 ERA and keeps Perkins/Slowey from being rushed.

by limozeen on Jan 19, 2007 8:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Way to go TR
The Twins just lost Alex Romero to Arizona on waivers. WTF was he thinking on this one? 2 totally boneheaded moves in one day is quite an accomplishment.

by AucklandGM on Jan 19, 2007 10:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Innings
Ortiz may not have pitched well last year statistically, but he did pitch 190 innings.  I think adding Ortiz makes it easier to go with one of the young guys in the number five spot in the rotation. The Twins really only have Santana who is a certainty to produce. Bonser and Silva have questions and either one could fail to give a lot of innings. So 190 innings from Ortiz, even if he struggles through some of them, is going to make things a lot more stable.

As for Romero, I think he has been overrated in the blogsphere for a long time. His upside was Dustin Mohr and he doesn't really look likely to achieve that. The Twins have several players ahead of him in the fourth and fifth outfielder race. I don't see where he was ever going to get a chance with the Twins.

The continuing complaints about Castro's contract are really silly. In case you missed it, the Twins got a young prospect in return for Castro when they traded him to Cincinnati. And the Reds then signed him to a multi-year contract. And it gave Bartlett a chance to develop without the major league manager breathing down his neck about mistakes.

by TT on Jan 19, 2007 11:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Every GM...
Even the great GM's make boneheaded moves sometimes, you can't name one GM that's made a bad move at some point.

This move makes sense in that it protects you from rushing your young arms. Make the kids FORCE their way into the rotation, you don't just give them a spot. This move creates COMPETITION as well. Competition brings out the best in people.

by doublestix on Jan 20, 2007 12:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Put Garza, Bonser etc
Into a "competition" without these slugs clogging the rotation and you've achieved the same result.

Let Slowey in too and Baker again.

How is taking a shot on them and their potential worse than taking a shot on the three they signed all of whom have consistently stunk the last few years??? HOW is that the worse course of action. Ortiz sucked in a pitcher's league. Tell me he's going to be better than ANY of these guys.

RE: Castro he sucks and I don't care if anyone signed him and the "prospect" they got in return is nothing but AAA roster filler. It was a bad move and it was compounded by signing him for two years. Indefensible.

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Jan 20, 2007 12:35 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

The results speak for themselves
How is taking a shot on them and their potential worse than taking a shot on the three they signed all of whom have consistently stunk the last few years??? HOW is that the worse course of action. Ortiz sucked in a pitcher's league. Tell me he's going to be better than ANY of these guys.

Bad as Ortiz was last year, he got better results than Garza. I think the reality is the Twins don't think any of the young prospects they have are ready.  Garza, Baker, Perkins and Slowey all look like they need more seasoning.

Unlike fans, the Twins don't have to roll the dice by "taking a shot" to see what happens. They will make their judgments based on observing the player's performance. This way they aren't forced, as they were with Garza last year, to give somebody a shot whether they think they are ready or not. And that's better because it gives the Twins a better chance to win now and it gives young prospects the chance to fully develop to their potential.

by TT on Jan 20, 2007 11:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

But...
I agree that Ortiz had "better results" than Garza, but Ortiz was 33 and had a 1.54 WHIP; Garza in his first 50 Innings in MLB had a 1.70 WHIP or about the same as Sidney Ponsons's 1.69 WHIP and worse than Carlos Silva's 1.54 WHIP.

I also note that in Ortiz's last three years his WHIP has gone from 1.38, 1.50, 1.54. That's not a positive trend; thus my conclusion that Garza will LIKELY improve from last year's results, but does anyone have confidence in Ortiz's ability to improve on his?

I mean, other than Terry Ryan.

I also get dismayed by the presumably positive proposition that a pitcher "gives you innings." If the pitcher sucks, what good is it to "give you innings"? Why not get a kid up to "give you innings" or a AAA vet to do the same thing? If "give you innings" is just that and the results don't really matter why not just nab a guy off the scrap heap for league minimum instead of taking any shot with the stiffs like Ponson, Ortiz and Silva? I know that Ponson's is not guaranteed, but I think the others are, and that doesn't make sense for a team with a limited payroll.

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Jan 20, 2007 11:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Innings
my conclusion that Garza will LIKELY improve from last year's results

There were plenty of people who thought Garza would LIKELY improve on Silva and Lohse last year. He didn't.

If the pitcher sucks, what good is it to "give you innings"? Why not get a kid up to "give you innings" or a AAA vet to do the same thing?

Because it doesn't work that way. In order to"give you innings" a pitcher needs to get people out. There is some point in a game at which any pitcher will stop being able to do that. I don't know anyone who thinks giving Garza 150 pitches in order to save the bullpen is a good idea.

by TT on Jan 20, 2007 12:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

he just let alex romero go for nothing
keep racking up those GM of the year awards

by PooNani on Jan 20, 2007 1:15 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

lol@ losing alex romero
oh no the twins just lost a 4th or 5th OF'r at best type..

zzzzz

who cares..

by hotshotschamp on Jan 20, 2007 4:22 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

well thankfully for them
they have tons of outfielders in the system who project as starters

like denard span hahahaha

by PooNani on Jan 20, 2007 9:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey
You know what should never be confusing?  GMs stockpiling starting pitching depth.

Yeah, Ryan is a real bonehead for spending 8 mill on three starters (one of whom posted a 3.44 ERA just two years ago) when one former labrum injury guy who never has posted a sub 4.50 ERA just got 5/55.

Fact is, if any of these guys sniff a 4.50 ERA the Twins get their money's worth.  And if they don't, big deal.  Cut the strings after a few bad starts and go with the youth.  There is no downside, only depth.

by limozeen on Jan 20, 2007 12:14 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Stockpiling arms, eh?
You know maybe you're right, a GM should stockpile SP depth.

Frankly, Allard Baird doesn't get nearly enough credit for that in KC last year.

He "stockpiled" Luke Hudson, Scott Elarton, Mike Wood, Joe Mays, Todd Wellemeyer and others.

When he does garbage moves like that, people determine he's not much of a GM; when Terry Ryan does it, it's wise in today's economy and he's smart to give these guys a shot.

I don't get the difference.

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Jan 20, 2007 1:14 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Well
For one, Elarton came with a long contract commitment despite one of the most proven track records of sucking.  Mays, Wood, Hudson, and Wellemeyer are all fine and good as potential #4/5 guys, but you do have to make other moves too because (like KC has learned over the last decade or so) a rotation of 4/5 guys is not much of a rotation at all.

Ryan has gotten Santana, Boof, Liriano, Silva, etc. in lopsided deals, has groomed one of the best farm systems in the league, and has drafted as well as any guy not named Beane.

You can't judge a GM by his roster filler.

by limozeen on Jan 20, 2007 2:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Baird
Sucks. Seriously, why has KC been so bad the last years...Baird. Terrible. He found a few diamonds in the rough - Emil Brown, Raul Ibanez, Paul Byrd, he even has had some pretty good drafts after his 2001 shit draft. But his FA pickups were terrible, his trades were terrible. Dye for Neifi wtf?

Luke Hudson - Wasn't even in the SP competition in ST, only after Dayton came along he got switched back to SP. (didn't exactly pitch like Garbage after switch to SP either)

Wellemeyer - A Moore pickup. (3 something ERA)

Frankly, KC didn't really have any pitching depth last year in ST after Greinke left and Redman was injured. This year there is soooooooooo much more depth.

Another difference here - KC needed Elarton, Mays just to fill out a rotation. The Twinkies don't need crap to fill out their rotation, but their rather using him these guys to prevent rushing their players.

That is all.

by doublestix on Jan 20, 2007 2:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Beane's drafts
has drafted as well as any guy not named Beane.

Where is the list of players Beane drafted since Grady Fuson left who even remotely compare to Mauer, Morneau or even Cuddyer?

by TT on Jan 21, 2007 8:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

well
Ryan has his highlights for sure, but Beane's productive player hit % is just ridiculous.

by limozeen on Jan 22, 2007 3:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ridiculous?
Not really, his "moneyball" draft was average or a little under average. And he has had a lot of first round draft choices to work with. I don't want to start another argument about Beane and Ryan, they both have been successful. But Beane's drafts since Fuson has left have not been anything special.

by TT on Jan 22, 2007 10:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Beane vs. Ryan
From 1998 thru the 2006 draft, the A's have 46 players who have contributed some in the majors or are listed on John's 2007 prospect list.  In that time, the Twins have 37 such players.  Top players in the majors from each system:

A's
Mark Mulder
Barry Zito
Gerald Laird
Eric Byrnes
Jon Adkins
Rich Harden
Bobby Crosby
Jeremy Bonderman
Neal Cotts
Dan Johnson
Nick Swisher
Joe Blanton
Andre Ethier
Huston Street

Twins
Justin Morneau
Travis Bowyer
Willie Eyre
Jason Kubel
Joe Mauer
Jesse Crain
Pat Neshek
Scott Baker
Matt Garza

The Twins have more highly regarded prospects in their system, but the A's have turned out more major leaguers in the same span.  I think both teams are pretty equal when it comes right down to it.

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Jan 22, 2007 7:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Also
If we're going since Fuson left, then Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer wouldn't enter the discussion, as they were all drafted by the Twins while Fuson was in Oakland.  If we break it down from 2002 on it looks like this:

A's
Street
Swisher
Blanton
Teahen
Ethier

Twins
Garza
Baker
Neshek
Crain

And then about 25 prospects each.  Again, I think it's all pretty even.

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Jan 22, 2007 7:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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