Where do you see Billingsley

by ByANose on Jan 15, 2007 9:39 PM EST Comment 21 comments

I realize he has 90 pro innings, but he still feels like a rookie to me. What does the minorleagueball nation think of Billingsley in 2007 and beyond. As it stands, I guess he battles Hendrickson for the 5th rotation spot(Schmidt, Penny, Lowe, Wolf). Do you guys see him as a 5th guy this year and maturing into a #2?
Or do they handle him as last year and groom him into a bullpen/long relief guy with the stable of young guns behind him? I personally believe he has earned a shot at being handed the ball every 5th day, "let's see what you got kid". After a bery impressive minor league resume, I'm not convienced he will not get the Edwin Jackson treatment.

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Billz

He will get every chance to start out of spring training. I don't think the Dodgers want Hendrickson starting.

by count sutton on Jan 15, 2007 10:15 PM EST reply actions

quibble

you mean 90 major league innings. the minors are 'pro' too.

by wily mo on Jan 15, 2007 10:18 PM EST reply actions

he's a talent

i think the kid has a chance to be something special. you got a pretty good look at him post all-star break with him posting an era of 3.16 while winning 7 games (that sample is with 62 innings pitched).

that's pretty tremendous for a 22 year old. obviously the k's weren't there and he faded in september, but his July and August gives you the sense that he's a legit 17-18 game winner capable of posting an era in the mid to low threes. his weakest era was in the strikeout column and his minor league history suggests that he'll turn that around.

if i were ranking him as a prospect, he would still be a top 10 guy (although that's not totally fair because he's not a prospect and there are a ton of other guys who would have to be considered in that mix.

all in all he's good, and i'm not a dodgers fan in the least.

Go Indians!

by willthompson on Jan 15, 2007 10:49 PM EST reply actions

he's a talent

Looks like Jeremy Bonderman to me.

by butkussayers on Jan 15, 2007 10:52 PM EST reply actions

not me

i see some brett myers in him, especially in terms of their development...highly touted power pitcher pitches to a 3.00era in the minors then struggles a little in the majors and takes a few years to put it all together then tops out as a good #2

now i think billinglsey has a higher ceiling but in the end i could see him being a myers-type where he flashes ace stuff on some days but for the most part is a #2

by Rob Castellano on Jan 16, 2007 12:07 PM EST up reply actions

billingsley vs myers

billingsley had better peripherals and era in the minors then myers did. And in regards to the strikeout rates, they weren't even close.

by npurcell on Jan 16, 2007 1:25 PM EST up reply actions

Comp

No idea how their minor league numbers compare, but whenever I watch Billz pitch I think of a young Brad Penny. Now, some of that's obviously the uniform, but not all of it, since Billz relied a ton on his big fastball to get people out, much like Penny (who's still not quite made the transition from thrower to pitcher, in my view).

Penny's a fine, fine pitcher, but if Billz ends up as Penny v.2, I for one will be a little disapointed.

by Yakker on Jan 16, 2007 6:44 PM EST up reply actions

billz vs penny

billingsley already throws 5 pitches compared to pennys fastball curveball combo.

billingsley has a 4 seamer, 2 seamer, slider, curveball and cut fastball that he uses regularly in every start.

by npurcell on Jan 16, 2007 10:35 PM EST up reply actions

Billz

The walks concern me, but he was really young.

The strikeouts really don't concern me at all. There's something about righties with good stuff...they usually start off right between 6 and 7.5 K/9 before they develop their true K potential. Look at the first few years for all sorts of good-stuff righties, from Peavy Sheets to Lackey to Verlander to Myers to Burnett to Beckett...they all have these 150 K in 200 innings seasons before their careers take off.

by limozeen on Jan 16, 2007 1:56 AM EST reply actions

having watched nearly all of his starts....

....I was more than a touch disappointed with him. He didn't really control a single one of his pitches, the fastball was a notch slower than advertised, and even his strikeout pitches looked quite a few calibers below the best pitches of other young future aces Liriano, Cain, King Felix, Verlander, et al.

The stat they always showed was how progressively tougher he was to hit once he had people on base (and, the more people on base, the tougher he got). Perhaps this correlates with the great poise and professionalism BA always raves about? Or perhaps it was a stroke of good luck that saved his numbers from looking abysmal. We'll wait and see on that one.

The only thing that encourages me is that most scouts retain a high outlook on him, meaning whatever he is doing now is discontinuous with the stuff he showed in the minors that made them think so highly of him. And, in fairness, I think you can make a lot of stupid judgments evaluating 22-year-old pitchers in the majors. Pretty much only stupid judgments. So I'll reserve mine for later.

Anyway, I was mainly writing this for my projection this year. If I had to guess, the rotation spot is his to lose (in spring training or at season's start). On the other hand, Mark Hendrickson IS NOT who he will be battling with primarily. Hong-Chih Kuo should be his main competition for the last spot in the rotation (and I think Tomko has as good a shot of winning the 5th as Hendrickson does). If Kuo loses it, I would have to believe he will be back down to the minors to be a starter in Vegas, as they won't want to risk Kuo reverting to his wildness in the bullpen from before. If Billingsley doesn't win a starting role, my guess is he will be a long-reliever/swingman in LA.

If I were manager, Kuo would absolutely have a spot in my rotation. Billingsley would be a long reliever, and potential starter when Wolf, Schmidt and Penny start missing games.

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 16, 2007 3:24 AM EST reply actions

I meant....

"whatever he is doing now is NOT discontinuous with the stuff he showed in the minors that made them think so highly of him."

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 16, 2007 3:26 AM EST up reply actions

If I were a GM.....

Given the MLB-ready talent in the system, I would have not signed Wolf. Wolf would have been a good gamble for a lot of teams, but the Dodgers have both Billingsley and Kuo that deserve shots in the rotation. Unfortunately only 1 will get a true chance.

Then there is Elbert, who will likely be ready around midseason.....

by guru4u on Jan 16, 2007 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

I agree in part

because I think Billingsley and Kuo are both major-league ready. On the other hand, I've really started appreciating the wisdom of having "too many" starters at your disposal, because, truthfully, there really never seems to be such thing. Nearly every case of a team having excess starters has worked itself out (with the possible exception of the White Sox with Brandon McCarthy), either by pitchers getting hurt or by back-of-the-rotation starters just sucking to the point of demotion. I think, when this year's all said and done, the Dodgers won't regret how many starting pitching options they have; I would guess it's just as likely, if not more, that they will be shopping for a new one come the trade deadline.

Besides, Wolf, Penny and Schmidt are almost guaranteed to spend some time on the DL this year. And Wolf, if he DOESN'T work out, will be spending time with Tomko down in the 'pen -- no harm, no foul.

Also, even if Elbert IS ready at midseason, he is a very obvious candidate for the bullpen (as many think he'll end up there anyway). I don't think the Dodgers would necessarily WANT him as a 21-year-old starter anyway, but it's certainly not a travesty to let him transition in as a reliever.

If you want to talk about BLOCKING people, let's talk about what Colletti did with the position players.....

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 16, 2007 2:35 PM EST up reply actions

I live that pain...

I have both LaRoche and Kemp on my fantasy team. Both SHOULD get their chance at a starting role this spring. But I am beginning to doubt if either one will get that chance.

by guru4u on Jan 16, 2007 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

don't worry...LaRoche should start somewhere

after Colletti trades him ....... sigh

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 16, 2007 7:23 PM EST up reply actions

Strikeout Pitches

If you want to say that last year Billingsley didn't show as big a fastball as Liriano, Cain, Verlander, and Hernandez, you are right, but to say "his strikeout pitches looked quite a few calibers below" the best pitches of those other pitchers is false. Billingsley has two plus breaking pitches that are certainly no worse than the combo of breaking pitches offered by Liriano and Hernandez, while Verlander and Cain only have a single breaking pitch, a curve, and Billingsley's curve beats their curveballs. Verlander's curve is rather "loopy," and just watching on TV I can see it coming a mile away, so I am sure the batter can as well (which is why Verlander struck out so few batters despite throwing 100 MPH). Billingsley's curve comes in on a flat plane and drops off a table at the last second. Cain barely ever trusts any pitch but his fastball, which is why the Dodgers offense in 2006 -- an offense that hit fastballs well but had trouble with off-speed stuff -- pretty much demolished Cain in the two games Cain pitched against the Dodgers. The fact that Cain is -- at this point in his development, at least -- still a "thrower" rather than a pitcher probably accounts for why a scout quoted by Baseball America early last season said that Billingsley "is a hell of a lot better than Matt Cain."

by CanuckDodger on Jan 16, 2007 10:41 PM EST up reply actions

to add

while up at with the big club, honeycutt made billingsley develop a cut fastball and chad seemed to have really liked it because in most games, it took the place of his slider and he threw it on a consistent basis.

If anyone was watching his outings in the playoffs, those back door sharp breaking balls to lefties were all cut fastballs.

by npurcell on Jan 16, 2007 11:14 PM EST up reply actions

no

I was talking about his curveball.

First of all, Cain's curveball is FAR superior to Billingsley's, and he throws it a fair amount. I live in Palo Alto; the Giants are on TV daily, and I've seen at least 10 or 15 of his starts. The Dodgers DO have trouble hitting off-speed stuff, but: 1) they have more trouble with straight changes than curveballs (notice they crushed Matt Morris too), and 2) Cain's main problem in his starts against the Dodgers was command (which is ALWAYS his problem), not that he was hittable. Once he couldn't throw strikes, his curveball is neutralized. But I can assure you, he is unhittable quite often -- check his game log if you don't believe me. I, unfortunately, didn't see Billingsley's one great start this year, but I did see most, and he NEVER looked like Cain when Cain was on.

You call Verlander's curveball "loopy," I would call it pretty devastating. It is big, but it seems quite sharp to me. Barry Zito has a loopy (albeit still devastating) curveball. As for Verlander's low K-rate, I don't know what to tell you. I probably saw 6 or 8 of his starts this year, and it seemed to me that people were mostly putting the fastball in play early in the count. I would make an argument that his arsenal is SO intimidating that people are willing to bite early and just try to get a bat on it, accounting for the low K/9. But I'm really not sure. On the other hand, I wouldn't argue too much for the K/9 supporting Billingsley's case, since Verlander bested Billingsley (6.00 to 5.90), while walking FAR fewer (and I think an argument exists that walking fewer batters makes it more difficult to accumulate Ks -- as does pitching more innings per start, which Verlander did by a mile).

As for Liriano and Felix, I guess you're not arguing.

Listen -- it's not like I said "Jered Weaver," who may or may not end up a better pitcher than Billingsley, but I don't think had anything Billingsley doesn't in his arsenal. And I'm still remaining faithful that scouts knew what they were talking about. But I would be surprised if there were any scouts who rank Billingsley's curve ahead of Cain's. Maybe Verlander is a closer question -- just in terms of the singular out-pitch -- but Verlander's whole arsenal is so clearly more devastating than Billingsley's that I still wonder how it is that C-Note will catch up with him. However, I still think he may well.

Your saying that what I said "is false" seems a bit arrogant, though. I thought it was an opinion, and one that many others would agree with as well.

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 17, 2007 1:59 AM EST up reply actions

I Stand By My Statement

Disagreeing with you is not arrogance. I have seen the curveballs of Billingsley, Verlander, and Cain, and in my opinion Billingsley's was much better than the curves of the other two pitchers, far more baffling to hitters. Verlander's didn't fool anybody in the games I saw. I could call the pitch as soon as the ball left his hand, and if I could do that, the batters could no doubt do the same. Cain's curve, when I saw Cain, was extremely inconsistent and difficult for Cain to command, no doubt making him reluctant to throw it. He curve was sharper than Verlander's, but lacked the degree of last-second break of Billingsley's curve. I know that there were games where Cain was dominant, but I didn't see those games, so maybe he was doing something different on those occasions. Dismiss my opinion if you please, but you are still left with the statement of the scout, cited by BA, who called Billingsley a "hell of a lot better than Matt Cain."

And I didn't say anything about Billingsley's K rate, but the fact that Billingsley's K rate was nearly the same as Verlander's when Verlander's fastball was about 7 or 8 MPH faster than Billingsley's says something about whose secondary pitches had to be better. The only concern I have about Billingsley is the fact that his fastball was usually 89-92 MPH in the majors, instead of sitting at 92-95 like it did in the minors. It reminds me of how Jesse Foppert of the Giants suddenly lost his plus velocity when he transitioned from the minors to the majors, and that turned out to foreshadow a serious arm injury. If the reduction in Billingsley's velocity is permanent, then I do think his ceiling ceases to be that of an ace, but with his curve and slider as good as they are, he can still be a #2 starter sitting at 89-92 and touching 94 MPH, like he was when I saw him. But the loss of velocity could have been only temporary. We'll see soon enough.

by CanuckDodger on Jan 17, 2007 10:43 AM EST up reply actions

disagreeing isn't arrogance.....

considering your own subjective judgment of the quality of pitchers' pitches true (and mine "false") IS arrogant.

still, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this issue.

i have read quite a few scouts prefer billingsley to cain (though just as many, if not more, prefer it the other way). my understanding was that most of this preference stemmed from concerns about cain's control and love of billingsley's "poise," not pure stuff. just because it's a scout doesn't mean he's referring to physical tools exclusively. however, if you have read reports that billingsley's best pitch is more dangerous than cain's, i will believe you, though i still disagree.

as for verlander -- i KNOW you didn't say anything about billz's K/9, just about verlander's, but it's foolish to use verlander's low K/9 as evidence, but to ignore billingsley's. further, just because verlander throws a little faster doesn't mean his out-pitch is necessarily worse just because his K/9 isn't substantially better. as i mentioned before, verlander pitches deeper into games than billingsley (who only lasted into the 7th inning three times this year), which generally leads to improved rate stats (see, relievers, effectiveness with low pitch-counts, etc.). furthermore, straight velocity on a fastball isn't necessarily going to lead to more Ks. a lot of verlander's fastballs look quite flat, which i would imagine also contributes to them being put in play. like i said before: i don't think it's the curveball that people are getting a bat on.

also, regarding your statement that you can see the curveball on tv coming easily, so you can imagine batters can too: a LOT of pitches are easier to see on tv than in reality. i have never seen a splitter on tv in my life that doesn't look like it's spiked in the dirt from the moment it leaves the pitcher's hand. gagne's curve is much like verlander's too in that it goes high right out of his hand, but people looked childish swinging at it. if batters could watch the game on tv like they were playing a video game, a lot of things would be different. but i don't think that that necessarily says a lot about the quality of the pitch.

as for the lost velocity: pretty much EVERY pitcher magically loses velocity graduating to the majors. kuo and broxton were both in triple digits regularly in jacksonville. i think some of this lost velocity has to do with increased vulnerability to location mistakes (and hence less pitches that a pitcher tries to simply "throw by" people). the rest i think is just hype -- basing velocity on the single highest reading by the most faulty gun each prospect has, and reporting this as the regular velocity. personally, i think you're over-rating the importance of a few mph (both with verlander and with billz) -- as sexy as fireballers are, there are plenty of aces who sit at 92, touch 94, and not everyone who throws 97 should necessarily strike everyone out. however, billingsley did hit 95 quite a few times this year, so i think he's just fine on that front. (if he were different, then i would expect to hear that as a reason for his struggles from scouts.)

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 17, 2007 8:47 PM EST up reply actions

Playoff performance

Worth noting, while the sample size is very small (just 2 innings), he did seem to be one of the few Dodgers pitchers that the Mets couldn't seem to get good swings off of last year in the postseason.

by southboundpachyderm on Jan 16, 2007 12:47 PM EST reply actions