Prospect Retro: Travis Hafner

by John Sickels on Sep 4, 2006 12:34 PM EDT in News

Travis Hafner was drafted by the Texas Rangers in the 31st round of the 1996 draft, out of Cowley County Community College in Kansas. He was a draft-and-follow guy and didn't sign until the following spring. Assigned to the Gulf Coast League Rangers, he did OK in his pro debut, hitting .286/.374/.439 with 14 doubles in 55 games. But it was rookie ball, and while his performance was good, it wasn't spectacular. He'd rate as a Grade C prospect at that point, with intriguing power potential but needing to prove he could carry it forward against more advanced pitching.

Hafner moved up to Savannah in the Sally League in 1998, where he hit just .237 in 123 games. He did knock 16 homers and draw 68 walks, but he struck out 139 times in 405 at-bats. He was originally a third baseman, but the Rangers switched him to first base during the year due to lack of range. At this point, his best attributes were power and walk rate, but his strikeout rate was very high and his batting average was low. Grade C.

Savannah was Hafner's destination once again in 1999. He did much better this time, hitting .292/.387/.546, with 28 homers, 30 doubles, 111 RBI, and 67 walks. However, he was repeating the league, and he fanned 151 times in 480 at-bats. His power was well-respected but there was still skepticism among scouts about how much contact he'd make against quality breaking balls and changeups. I gave him a Grade C in the 2000 book, noting that he had potential but that it was unclear if he would do as well at higher levels.

The Rangers promoted Hafner to the Florida State League in 2000, where he hit .346/.447/.580 for Charlotte, with 34 doubles, 22 homers, 109 RBI, 67 walks, and 86 strikeouts. Stunning performance, and note the gigantic drop in his strikeout rate. I raised his grade to C+ in the '01 book, which seems much too low in retrospect. I was concerned that it was his third season in Class A, and at age 23 he wasn't young for a three-peat at that level. Nowadays I would probably have gone up to Grade B given the dramatic drop in his strikeouts.

A wrist injury cost Hafner about 40% of the 2001 season, but he did well for Double-A Tulsa when healthy, hitting .282/.396/.545 with 20 homers in 323 at-bats. He drew 59 walks against 82 strikeouts. I raised him to Grade B-. At this point, the doubts now were about defense, and finding a position as the Rangers had a logjam at his position. I also continued to hear doubts about his ability against higher-level breaking balls and changeups.

Hafner was healthy in 2002 and had a massive season in Triple-A, hitting .342/.463/.559 for Oklahoma with 21 homers, 79 walks, and 76 strikeouts in 401 at-bats. His plate discipline was excellent, and he'd shown that he could make contact against top-level minor league breaking stuff. I was finally convinced, raising his grade to a strong A- and writing that "I'm as positive as positive can be that he will hit, and hit well, in the major leagues." He was traded to the Indians that December (for Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese) to help replace Jim Thome in the Cleveland lineup.

Hafner scuffled a bit in the majors in '03, hitting .254/.327/.485 in 91 games. . .he showed good power but it took him some time to adjust to major league conditions. He broke out big in '04 however, and has been one of the top sluggers in the American League ever since.

His early minor league career was marked by good power production and a high walk rate, but also a very high strikeout rate and doubts from scouts about his ability to adjust at higher levels. Through hard work, he improved his ability to read breaking balls, cutting his strikeout rate despite moving up and hitting against better competition. He hit over .300 in '04 and '05, and will possibly do so again in '06....considering that he hit just .237 against Sally League competition in 1998, I think you have to be very happy with the way he's developed his overall offensive game. His current numbers are very much what you'd expect based on his 2002 MLE at Triple-A Oklahoma, but I think it clear that Hafner has exceeded even what optimists thought possible back in '97 and '98.

Similar Players to Travis Hafner

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Fred McGriff

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HGH

Travis Hafner's facial features are strongly suggestive of someone who has had high circulating levels of Human Growth Hormone, either due to overproduction by his pituitary gland or from other sources.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 4, 2006 12:36 PM EDT reply actions

common dude

are you serious?

by yacck23 on Sep 4, 2006 2:08 PM EDT reply actions

anyways

As a rangers fan it makes me absolutely sick to my stomach whenever i see or hear the name travis hafner. We f*"^in traded travis hafner for EINAR DIAZ AND RYAN DRESE. my god

by yacck23 on Sep 4, 2006 2:10 PM EDT reply actions

HGH

I think it is pretty clear that Hafner should be high on anyone's list of probables.

by jte87 on Sep 4, 2006 3:04 PM EDT reply actions

HGH

The guy's a monster, but let's give him his due respect until he's proven guilty. Hafner leads the AL in OPS by 0.27 and he can't even crack the all-star roster!

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by TheK @ Minor League Ball on Sep 4, 2006 3:11 PM EDT reply actions

re: HGH

you people are smoking crack...

by yoda1 on Sep 4, 2006 3:27 PM EDT reply actions

why

because we arent ruling out the possibility he might be on something? if you havent learned by now in baseball it is important to question things, because it seems more often than not these claims turn out to be something. If he isnt on anything, then kudos to him, but any guy that puts up numbers like that, and at that size, is going to be questioned, hes gonna have to live with it.

by realityconquest on Sep 4, 2006 3:47 PM EDT reply actions

Not Just Size

While long bones lose the ability to grow after adolescence, other bones, such as facial bones, can start growing again when they are exposed to HGH. The first time I saw Hafner on TV, I almost gasped because he has very coarse facial features to the point that you could use his picture in a textbook to illustrate Acromegaly.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 4, 2006 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

LOL

I just lost all respect for you...

by yoda1 on Sep 4, 2006 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't Care

You obviously have no idea what the effects of HGH are on the human body, so I really don't care whether you respect me or not. Go check out some pics. I am sure you can find them on the internet. Then compare them to a pic of Hafner.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 4, 2006 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

LOL

You opened up a can of worms here, and most the dummies on here will bash you for it. Did Haffner? I don't know nor do I really care. I have heard that 70% of players have at least dabbled in roids or Growth (from my best friend who played with the Marlins and Blue Jays). Its not hard to tell some of the old users were just by looking at them. Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, Bagwell, Luis Gonzalez, etc, etc. Anyone who has any knowledge of steroids or lifting weights can tell.

by ScottAZ on Sep 5, 2006 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Berg

I hope Dave Berg doesn't mind you sharing things he's said to you in a public forum.

by I Love Oakland As on Sep 5, 2006 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions

then it'll be...

Mad Dave Berg!

What a clod!!!

"Dave Berg Looks at Blogging"

and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Sep 5, 2006 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions

hey

Why do you assume its Bergie? Why can't it be assumed that I'm pals with Junior Felix or Nigel Wilson?

by ScottAZ on Sep 5, 2006 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions

subject

I thought it would be fun to take a wild stab. But I've read enough of your posts to know you played college baseball and continue to be an avid fan of it. So I could imagine that you might have something in common with Berg - a Hurricanes alum.

Nigel Wilson never played for the big club in the Toronto org. Junior Felix qualifies on the TOR/FLA angle but also played for other teams which I thought you would mention if it were him, besides he has no friends.

by I Love Oakland As on Sep 5, 2006 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

re

Yes, I have plenty of friends that went on too pro ball and I think every single one of them at least dabbled in steroids. Not that they were sauce-heads, but they thought they had to take them for an edge or just to keep even with everyone else. Through them I have met many house hold names and allstar players on an outside the lines basis, just hanging out and shooting the shit. People would be surprised at all that goes on with these guys outside of the game. I would never condem a player for taking roids or other stuff. All my friends are good guys, and most were relieved that testing was passed as they felt they had to use just because everyone else was.

Junior Felix? I heard he was very tight with Sil Campusano.

by ScottAZ on Sep 5, 2006 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions

so?

and who are you other than a nameless and faceless thread on a blogging board? I hope he isn't worried about your respect.

by ScottAZ on Sep 5, 2006 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions

HGH

I think your on the fly diagnosis of elevated HGH levels on the basis of seeing Hafner on TV is both wildly speculative and, given the current climate of MLB and professional sports at large, inappropriate.

HGH, like all hormones, shows considerable variation within humans. HGH varies across populations, within populations, and even within individuals in response to different developmental events and external stimuli. HGH is more difficult to assay than a lot of other hormones and therefore our knowledge of the full range of variation present within and between people is lagging behind that of other performance enhancing drugs (hence the difficulty in devising a test for elevated HGH).

Wild speculation aside, as John notes, while Hafner's current performance is exceptional, it is not out of line with his performance going back to his early minor league days. There haven't been any dramatic spikes in his power or production, simply a fairly steady development in line with the general developmental trend of hitters. Nobody is above suspicion in today's MLB, but In the absence of any evidence aside from how he "looks," I think throwing out lines like; "strongly suggestive of someone who has had high circulating levels of Human Growth Hormone, either due to overproduction by his pituitary gland or from other sources" is unwarranted.

by APV @ Minor League Ball on Sep 4, 2006 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Thank You...

for sharing your opinion which you have a right to as well as I. It's just that I can't off the top of my head think of any other ballplayers who just scream HGH to me. It seems like a lot of folks have no problem condemning Barry Bonds for his appearance but as soon as you point out something on a guy like Hafner, oops, that's innappropriate.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 4, 2006 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions

HGH

Hell, HGH wasn't banned for a long time. You could walk into a mall and go into GNC and pick it up.

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by TheK @ Minor League Ball on Sep 4, 2006 4:13 PM EDT reply actions

Observation

I don't think I made any comments regarding the legality or illegality of using HGH. I simply made an observatio about Hafner's facial features and the similarity to a typical acromegalic.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 4, 2006 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

BTW.

Isn't it interesting that the same people who thrash Barry Bonds everyday for something that has never been proven and was also only recently banned by baseball are so quick to jump to Travis Hafner's defense?

Not singling you out personally because I don't know your position on Bonds. It's just that if Bonds hat size is an issue, why isn't Hafner's facial features?

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 4, 2006 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

whoa whoa whoa

this is pure speculation on hafner...bonds, i mean jesus, how many different links does he have to this kinda stuff, while there isnt absolute concrete evidence against barry, the cloud of associations is massive

by nyybaseball99 on Sep 4, 2006 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Link

Check out this link and compare the pics with Hafner's mug. I think it's more than mere speculation:

http://www.acromegaly.org/index.php

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 4, 2006 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Ok, so

So he's 100% guilty because of his facial structure? Well, I guess the MLB could save some serious $$$ by dumping their drug testing and hiring you to look at a players "portfolio"! Give me a break...

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by TheK @ Minor League Ball on Sep 4, 2006 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Re:

I don't think he ever said he's 100% definitely on HGH; he simply pointed out that his facial features are extremely similar to a person that has high levels of HGH in their system.

by eazyb81 on Sep 4, 2006 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Bonds

I'm actually a fan of Bonds. But for Bonds the circumstantial evidence forms a much stronger case. Bonds went from a great all-around hitter, to a great all-around hitter with Herculean power at the age of 35. Not exactly a normal hitter's developmental curve. Hafner has never really seen any jump in his power production, but instead in his plate coverage and discipline. The biggest jump in these areas for him were between the age of 22 and 23, completely in line with skill development expectations. Furthermore, we have documentary evidence of the transformation of Bonds body from his younger Pittsburgh days to the "Incredible Hulk" body he sports in San Francisco. I didn't follow Hafner prior to his arrival in Cleveland, but my guess is that you haven't either. We don't know what he looked like when he was 20 or 18. And furthermore, changes from 18 to 20 to 25 aren't unexpected. Changes past the age of 35 are.

by APV @ Minor League Ball on Sep 4, 2006 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Check It Out

Just check out the link I provided above and draw your own conclusions. That's all I'm going to say on this subject.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 4, 2006 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Well,

I take it that you don't think he has the "good face" that scouts look for?

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by TheK @ Minor League Ball on Sep 4, 2006 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions

On the Contrary.....

maybe Hafner has the face that every scout looks for.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 4, 2006 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Pronk

"I didn't follow Hafner prior to his arrival in Cleveland, but my guess is that you haven't either. We don't know what he looked like when he was 20 or 18."

I've followed him around the time he was in the FSL and he's always been a monster from what i'd read and later saw.

by yacck23 on Sep 4, 2006 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

re: Pronk

There's a picture from when he was in college here, I believe.

by AngG on Sep 4, 2006 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions

please don't tell me...

... that you think Hafner is AND Bonds isn't.

Please don't tell me that.

and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Sep 4, 2006 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Have I Said That?

If I did, I certainly didn't mean to. I'm just saying that Hafner's appearance is at least as incriminating as Bonds'. I also did say that it's perfectly possible that if, in fact, Hafner's appearance is due to HGH, the source could be intrinsic.

BTW. That brings up an interesting question. If HGH is a performance enhancing substance, should folks with an intrinsic HGH disorder be allowed to play?

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 4, 2006 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions

well, I'm asking you your opinion

You're not "saying" Hafner has and Bonds hasn't, but you're very heavily implying it. Even just now, you didn't deny you felt that way; you just said that you hadn't said that, which is different.

Yes or no question: Do you think Bonds has, or has had, "high circulating levels of HGH?"

and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Sep 4, 2006 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions

High Probability

I think there is a high probability that both Bonds and Hafner have used performance enhancing substances of some kind. That statement is probably true for at least 50% of all current major league ballplayers.

The circumstantial evidence is pretty strong surrounding Bonds, but he's also undergone a lot more scrutiny than most players due to his proximity to the HR record.

IMO, Hafner's facial features are much more strikingly suspcious for an HGH effect than any other ballplayer I can think of including Bonds.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 4, 2006 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions

ok

Thanks. If you had said Bonds hadn't, I wouldn't have taken you seriously. Now... I still probably won't, but at least I'll consider it.

and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Sep 4, 2006 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Whew!

I feel better now.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 5, 2006 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions

ugh

"the same people who thrash Barry Bonds everyday for something that has never been proven and was also only recently banned by baseball "
if there's one thing i hate, it's a freakin Bonds apoloist..
HGH was a legal supplement, available at GNC over the counter.
The Cream and the Clear are illegal drugs which were developed specifically to evade testing methods.

That you would even consider drawing a parallel between the two is absurd, i hope you're not a real doctor, if so you may want to go back and take Eethics again.

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Sep 5, 2006 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Correction

Not going to respond to the personal stuff. You might want to check the facts about HGH. You cannot get it OTC and you cannot take it orally. Here's a couple of links:

http://quackwatch.org/01QuackeryRelatedTopics/hgh.html

http://www.hgh-info-buyers-guide.org/?src=google

Wikipedia has some good information too.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 5, 2006 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Roids

Nothing like a good witch hunt...

by limozeen on Sep 4, 2006 6:39 PM EDT reply actions

Who cares?

I have a really tough time getting worked up about whether someone took steroids or not. In fact, I wish baseball will be more permissive of certain drugs if they are done under a registered doctors supervision.

In my mind, while steroids and drugs of that ilk do enhance performance, what I think the best benefit is the ability of players to stay health and recover quicker. This means that a player can bounce back from strains and nagging injurys quicker and perform at a normal level. I like baseball, and I like seeing the best players play it. I am against rampant and black market shenanigans, but use that would be supervised by doctors (to treat injuries, etc) and other administration might make sense and might make baseball a better game.

All that being said and now trying to get back to topic, Hafner is an amazing player. As a Twins fan, he scares me more than any other hitter in baseball. And I'm not convinced he does steroids or HGH. Seeing him on TV is a pretty lame diagnosis.

Minnesota Twins - 2006 World Series Champions

by drjim on Sep 4, 2006 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions

All or Nothing

Unfortunately, there are enough unscrupulous physicians around and enough minor nagging injuries that allowing these subtances for medicinal use would be tantamount to having no restrictions. The problem with no restrictions is that young people then feel like they have to use to compete. Society is not ready to accept the idea that the only way to compete is by using PED's.

As for diagnosing Acromegaly, physicians don't just go ordering the confirmatory tests on everybody who walks through the door. You first look for the typical physical features and then confirm your suspicons with laboratory testing. Just look at the acromegaly.org website and then look at Hafner. If you don't think there is enough there to be suspicious, you aren't very good at pattern recognition.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 4, 2006 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions

well

I hear that Lew Ford is a level 27 wizard. Is it unfair that he can cast a +13 summoning spell from left field? Perhaps.

by limozeen on Sep 4, 2006 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, yes....

if Lew Ford is, in fact, using his wizardry to successfully cast spells on other players, then that would be an unfair competetive advantage.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 5, 2006 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions

LMAO

smartest thing anyone has said so far in this thead...

by yoda1 on Sep 5, 2006 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions

An Important Distinction

That brings up an interesting question. If HGH is a performance enhancing substance, should folks with an intrinsic HGH disorder be allowed to play?

This is a very important point. Saying that Hafner has facial features that are typical of people with high blood levels of HGH or high response levels to HGH is very very different from saying that he's 'augmenting'. Some people are just like that, and if you combine a smart player who has the other skills of a good hitter, then you're going to get the monsterous power hitter that is Pronk. There's nothing illegitimate about it at all. Babe Ruth was a physical freak, too, as are, really nearly ever great sports player in one way or another.

by NBarnes on Sep 4, 2006 9:07 PM EDT reply actions

George Muresan

I don't think that's the right spelling of his first name, but he was a 7'7" basketball player who quite clearly had pituitary issues. Unfortunately for him, he wasn't quick or fast enough to use his height to his advantage on the basketball court.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 4, 2006 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Intresting but flawed

I think the most damning flaw in your argument is the benefit HGH would have on Hafner if he took it. Hafner has always had monster power. Remember he's a 6'3 240lb guy that grew up on a farm doing heavy lifting and what not.

Hafner became an excellent hitter when he increased his observation of the strike zone.

"His early minor league career was marked by good power production and a high walk rate, but also a very high strikeout rate...he improved his ability to read breaking balls, cutting his strikeout rate"

--Sickles from above

To my knowledge, correct me if I'm wrong, HGH affects power not your ability to read pitches.

Maybe Hafner did take HGH but given his production level throughout his minors you need a lot more evidence than "he's an ugly farm kid" to prove your point.

by world dictator on Sep 4, 2006 10:43 PM EDT reply actions

Advantage?

I've never once in all of this discussion said that HGH makes Hafner a better player. In fact, I've made exactly the same argument trying to defend Bonds. Steroids don't give you better timing, pitch recognition, balance or any of the other things that make Bonds a great hitter, so what's the big deal?

HGH is, however, generally considered to be a performance enhancing substance, one that Bonds has been accused of using among other things.

I simply made an observation about Hafner's appearance. Others have taken that as a condemnation when I have actually never said any such thing.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 5, 2006 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Twit

"when I have actually never said any such thing."
yes, you have. You have implied it strongly. This isn't a courtroom or the hals of the senate where you can say something without sayign something but actually not have said it. Youve made repeated statements drawing towards one particular conclusion... that you're a twit.

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Sep 5, 2006 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Proof

I've never once said that I have proof that Hafner has used HGH. All I've said is that his facial features are typical of a medical condition called Acromegaly. Acromegaly is cause by an overproduction of HGH. HGH can come from either sources that are intrinsic or extrinsic to the body.

BTW. The facial features of Acromegaly are much more specific than "being an ugly farm kid," a phrase I never used or implied.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 5, 2006 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions

re

ahhh, the good old farm boy explanation. I remember hearing the same explanation when people questioned how Jim Thome went from a 6'3", 190 lbs 3b to a 6'3", 245 lbs immobile DH.... "Thome didn't roids, he HUNTS and works on a FARM in the offseason..."

by ScottAZ on Sep 5, 2006 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions

It's a compliment

After all, no one thinks to speculate whether guys like Neifi Perez or Frank Catalanotto are on roids. I suppose that Ryan Howard is up for question, also.

by BaseballBrain on Sep 5, 2006 12:50 PM EDT reply actions