Anyone else think this is the Twins year?
by buckos2k on Sep 30, 2006 10:38 AM EDT
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PrintNow that it seems that the Twins will play the Yankees I was curious if anyone else thought that the Twins have enough to get past the Yanks and if they do is it pretty much a given that they would be the favorites to win the WS. I personally think the A's are the team no one seems to take too seriously that could suprise and win it all but, it does feel like this is the Twins "year".
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I don't get that vibe at all
re:
Twins Offense
Twins offense
Causation and Correlation
Are you implying that caused Morneau and Mauer to turn white hot? The Twins offense did pick up in June when they started their run at the Tigers and White Sox. But the guys who really picked things up were Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer. Punto and Bartlett certainly contributed, but so did Tyner. And White helped down the stretch after he came off the DL. And Hunter also picked things up the final couple months.
The Twins got career best years offensively from Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Hunter, Bartlett, Punto and Tyner. They better win it this year, because that is going to be a hard act to follow. And they many need to improve the offense just to stay even without Brad Radke. The Twins have a lot of young pitching they will have to sort through next year to fill out their rotation.
by TT @ Minor League Ball on Oct 2, 2006 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Correlation and Causation
Johan
That said, Minnesota will be in trouble without home-field advantage. I don't think Oakland's SP depth will help them in the playoffs, and I think the Yankees will be offensive enough to win. But I hope not. Twins best chance is if they edge out Detroit, and the Tigers can soften up the Yankees for them. Maybe the Tigers will even beat the Yankees? I sure hope so.
Actually, I think If anything the...
I don't know
Is any opponent really going to be fearful of Boof Bonser in game two or a broken armed (shoulder) though incredibly gutsy, Radke in game three? Johan can't win every game.
Even w/o RJ, the Yanks could pound their way to the ALCS if they face the Twins in the first round.
A's are looking good, though I don't think Crosby will be much of a threat in the playoffs.
Hmm
The Twins certainly have the talent in the rotation if not the experience, and they've got an outstanding pen. Quite frankly, they've been a better team than the Yankees for a few months now . . .so it won't surprise me if they can take the Yankees in a five game set.
Crosby
by chri5 on Sep 30, 2006 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Jiminez
Crosby will bring very good defence and a decent bat if he is healthy. They just can't keep letting him play when he is hurt.
Twins
by the pinstripes on Sep 30, 2006 12:13 PM EDT reply actions
check the old 'September predictions' diary...
No, I dont....
I respect the Twins a lot because I like the way they run their franchise, but I think a lot of the fans here are talking themselves into believing they have a better chance than they really do.
Its like the Indianapolis Colts... put ten die hard fans in a room together, and in three hours all of them will come out believing that not only will they finally win a Superbowl, but that the Colts are the greatest team in the history of football. They talked themselves into it... I am afraid Twins fans are doing the same thing right now (but, I must admit that I would love to see the Twins beat the Yanks).
Anyone else think...
My vote is for the Twins vs Yanks in the ALDS, even though that means they are on the road. Of course, this theory hasn't worked out the last 2 post season trips... 3rd times the charm, though, right?
I agree with you, dbimberg!
dbimberg - I agree with you; I was actually thinking the same thing. :-)
No offense to Tiger fans, but I think the Twins would have the better chance to beat the Yankees than the Tigers because of Johan Santana. Justin Verlander is not at that level of domination yet (if he ever is,) plus faltered a bit down the stretch (because he never pitched that many innings before,) plus is getting extra rest, so who knows how that might affect him (he could really dominate, then again, he could be totally off with his command.) While Bonderman can also be a shutdown pitcher at times, he's also been erratic and has shown some tendency to melt under the pressure a bit, so it would depend on which Bonderman emerges in the start, but still, neither Verlander or Bonderman is as sure of a dependable Game 1 starter as Santana.
If the Twins can win both of Santana's starts (a possibility; Wang has had a nice year, but can he outduel Johan? That's tough for anyone, including one with limited playoff experience, none as a Game 1 starter,) the Twins would only have to win one other game to advance (not an easy task, but doable, especially at the Metrodome.) While they've fallen to the Yankees in the first round in 2003 and 2004, their offense this year is arguably better than it was in 2003 and 2004. Plus, the Yankees' starting pitching is still a bit suspect (no Randy Johnson; can Wang handle being the #1 against Johan? Can Mussina show glimpses of his old form, since he's arguably no longer the same Mussina he was in Baltimore? Can Jaret Wright hold down the #3 spot and produce a quality start or will the front-end of the bullpen be exposed? Does Wang come back for Game #4; if not, who starts Game 4?)
While I don't think it's a given the Twins can beat the Yankees, I think they have a better shot at them in a 5-game series than they do in a 7-game series, as well as having a better shot to knocking them off than the Tigers do thanks to Johan Santana (no offense Tiger fans.)
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great Sunday!
hi IndiansFan
Who will the twins throw out there? Garza is getting rocked. Liriano obviously is out. Radke is a real gamer but shouldn't be an option. So you have Silva & Boof.
I do agree they Yankees have questions. But they always seem to do ok anyways. Yeah they have questions, but they also have the best record in baseball with the same crappy pitchers that will be in the playoffs. I guess having that pen with the best offence helps :).
Minnesota doesn't have the pitching unless a lot of things go right or pitchers step it up a couple notches. Detroit just needs guys to do what they were doing earlier in the season.
I respectfully disagree!
I respect your opinion, but I respectfully disagree; the Yankees (like everyone else) have not done well against Santana in the playoffs. IF (and I know it's a sizable IF) the Twins can win those two games against the Yankees, they only need to steal one more against them to advance. And while they haven't been able to do it before, their offense is better than it has been in past years, and arguably, the Yankees' pitching is as suspect as it has been in past years, as their rotation is in flux and their bullpen, outside of Rivera and Myers, is anything but lock-down.
The problem for Minnesota is, if the Tigers fall in the first round, it will arguably be harder for the Twins to beat the Yankees in a best-of-7 - they can throw Santana twice on full rest or 3 times on short rest, but like virtually every pitcher, Santana won't be quite himself on short rest, so the question becomes, can the Twins win all 3 games that Santana starts if he goes on short rest? I'm not so sure on that - it's possible, but not as likely in my opinion as if he was started twice on four days' rest. As a result, the Twins now have to win 2 other games that Santana doesn't start in. I think they can steal one game that Boof, Radke, or Silva starts, but two is asking quite a bit unless Boof can really pitch beyond his experience in the postseason or Radke can really give one great performance (possible, but not probable.) That is why I wished the Twins would have faced the Yankees in the first round.
With Detroit's loss today, that's 5 straight losses for them, dropping them to the Wild Card. I don't think it goes without saying that the Tigers have to be disappointed and are on a downslide - the question is, can Leyland and company get these guys to rebound or will they be bounced in 3-4 games?
The Tigers' pitching doesn't match up to Santana - Verlander isn't as dominant, he's faltered lately due to the high number of IP, and he's had extra rest, so will he even be the vintage Verlander he showed earlier in the season or the erratic Verlander we've seen in the last month? We won't know until he gets out there. On top of that, Robertson is scheduled to start Game 1, followed by Verlander, Rogers, and Bonderman, so in my opinion, even the rotation setup doesn't seem that favorable to the Tigers either, since Robertson, arguably the weakest of the four, is scheduled to start Games 1 and 5. I'm not saying the Tigers can't match or even upset the Yankees, but with the way they've played lately, it wouldn't shock me to see Detroit go down in 3-4 games.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
a few counter-points
Also, I'm not sure if Robertson will have to pitch game 5 since there may be 2 off days.
I do agree Detroit has been slumping - but this coincided with the clinching. No small matter. I think they can regroup now that it matters again. And in the past we have seen teams limp in and do well. 2005 White Sox being one example. So I wouldn't read too much into it.
The fact Verlander is tired or is on irregular days rest I think is irrelevant now. Everyone will be on irregular rest in the playoffs. And the adrenaline will flow. My only concern is how they deal with the pressure.
but .... We have seen so many rookies excel in the playoffs and so many seasoned pitchers struggle.
I think it comes down to without Liriano the Twins will be over their head all playoffs. They may succeed. But they will need Garza or Boof or someone to really step it up. I think Radke is done but hope not. Silva may actually be a bright spot for them in the playoffs.
Some counter-points to your counter-points! :-)
While the quartet of Robertson, Verlander, Rogers, and Bonderman is solid, none have Santana's playoff experience and success and none can dominate like Santana can, and THAT'S what makes the difference in the playoffs - dominant starting pitching. Dominant starting pitching will outdo solid starting pitching virtually every time.
While I believe you are correct that Santana won one game and got a no-decision in the other, I believe the Twins' offense didn't do enough in that ND - the Twins' offense is arguably better this time around, so if they provide just a bit more support, it wouldn't surprise me if the Twins go undefeated in Santana's starts (provided he pitches at his best, of course.)
The difference with Detroit's slump vs. the White Sox's slump from a year ago is that the White Sox recovered in time to win the Central and had some momentum going into the postseason (they split with the Tigers, 2 out of 4, and swept the Indians in a 3-game series, so they won 5 out of 7 that last week.) The Tigers have lost 5 straight, including 3 straight to one of the worst teams in baseball (was the worst for most of the season until TB overtook them on Sunday, record-wise,) and the Tigers had the lead in two of those games, but let both of them slip away. Personally, I can't believe they are in good spirits going to Yankee Stadium, after having lost the division they had held the ENTIRE season, only to lose it on the last day.
They may recover, but facing the experienced, hungry Yankees, who haven't won a WS since 2000, at Yankee Stadium is not the ideal assignment for the young, inexperienced Tigers. They're going to have overcome their swoon quickly if they want to make this a competitive series or they may be going home very quickly. Like I said before, they have a solid quartet of starting pitchers, but facing one of the better, more experienced offenses in hostile Yankee Stadium is going to be a huge test for that pitching staff, with only Rogers having minimal playoff experience, and not much success if I remember correctly, faltering under the NY pressure.
The point about Verlander is, with all that extra rest, his control may be off like it had been in some of his September starts - if so, that will make it that much more difficult for him to contain the powerful Yankee offense.
If the Twins had a healthy Liriano, I would think they would be the favorite to reach and win the WS. Even so, I think they can be a formidable test for the A's and even the Yankees because they have arguably the best starting pitcher in the postseason, plus one of the better, if not best, bullpen, plus an improved offense. It wouldn't surprise me if the Twins and Yankees meet in the ALCS.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
I do
disagree ...
Morris ordinary?
223 wins in a 14 year stretch including 3 years with 20 or more wins. That is an average of 16 wins a year. With one injury plagued year with only 6 wins and the next lowest being 14 wins. And while his era was only in the low 3s (sometimes being higher) he averaged around 250 IP. That is huge. After pitching 266.1 innings in 1982 he pitched 293.2 in 1983 to rack up 20 wins with a 3.34 era. That is a crazy number of innings pitched.
While he is not the ace typical of our generation (6 IP with high K and good ERA) he was an ace.
correction
"ace"
He led his league in innings only once, so calling his innings pitched "crazy" isn't exactly apt, IMO. His totals were high, but not out of context for the era by any means.
He stayed healthy, and he had a 3.90 ERA while the league had a 4.05 ERA (per baseball-reference.com). That's just not special in a Johan Santana way. He wasn't even special in a Bert Blyleven way, and his winning percentage was 40 points higher than Bert's.
Tough luck
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