Brandon Wood

by Guyute on Sep 29, 2006 6:59 PM EDT Comment 15 comments

A guy everyone feels strongly about, one way or the other.

Here's a guy everyone feels strongly about, one way or the other. Seems like, for the most part, everyone on this board seems pretty down on the guy. Ks too much, might not end up at SS. But still, the guy has mashed. Everything I read sounds like he's got enough skill to stay at shortstop but an inferior offense player, Aybar, might push him to third. I personally think it would be silly for the organization to push someone w/ his offensive potential away from SS if he can handle it, but, then again, aybar doesn't look like a total slouch (don't sell yourself short judge, you're a tremendous slouch :-)). He's always hit in hitter's ballpark and that has been behind the hype of other Angels prospects in the past. etc. etc.

Despite numbers not quite on par w/ last year, he's still raked. What's your take on this guy? What do you predict for yearly numbers? Will/should he stick at SS? Will he just strike out too much to overcome an otherwise productive bat?

In the interest of full disclosure I have him in a DMB league so I have a vested interest in him doing well.

He seems to get a passing (usually negative) mention on several other diaries so I thought I'd bring the name back to the top of the list again.

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re: wood

isnt this K thing almost exactly the same thing that went on with Howard, and i'd say he's doing pretty well, but of course every player is different

i dont like all those K's, no one can, but he's got the most power in the minor leagues...there's also two ways to get to a strikeout, a complete lack of plate discipline and a lot of swinging and missing, or working the count, and ending up getting in down in the count (obviously swinging and missing is done in the latter, but not as much)...his walk totals arent obscenely low, so that something positive to consider when talking about his excessive K'ing

ive cooled on him a bit considering what he did last year (and i realize its not fair to hold last season against him because of how incredible it was), but he's still young, has great potential, and could eventually curb the striking out, i'd take him in my organization any day

by nyybaseball99 on Sep 29, 2006 7:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

good response

I think Aybar gets packaged w/ saunders and maybe a catcher to get the bat they are lookin for, maybe Vernon Wells, since they need a SS and SP, and even C down the line.

I'm not too concerned w/ Wood's K's, I think he will be a very good major league SS.

by SoCalSoxFan on Sep 29, 2006 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The K's

Folks worried about another Angels' prospect with an excessive K rate... Dallas McPherson.

And he hasn't done very well even when healthy.

by grover on Sep 30, 2006 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know that no one

is claiming that the two are identical, just that there are similarities, but the age difference between them at the given levels is pretty significant.

McPherson:
22 - Low A
23 - High A, AA
24 - AA, AAA

Wood:
19 - Low A
20 - High A
21 - AA

He was right at three years younger than McPherson for his AA time (given their DOBs and promotion dates).

by Brett Perryman on Sep 30, 2006 3:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to even mention

that if McPherson had been playing shortstop, his numbers would be perfectly solid, and that injuries have played a big role in his not being great. Personally, I still fully expect McPherson to have a couple of all-star level seasons.

by Brickhaus on Oct 1, 2006 4:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Woody

Excessive K's are often but not always bad. I'm not sure, but I suspect they are more of a problem with an older player than a younger player. Also, he supposedly swings all out on every pitch, even with 2 strikes. As he gets older, he may change his 2 strike approach.

His stats are still great for his age and league. He is so young he could easily take several leaps forward too. I think he could top out as a mix of Schmidt and Ripken. Schmidt struck out a ton when he was young too. I guess worst case is Russell Branyan.

Anyway, as an Angel fan, I want them to hold on to him no matter what trade offers are out there, I like the odds of him turning into a cheap run producer.

by elricsi on Sep 29, 2006 8:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Actually

they've been saying lately that Aybar is going to get a serious look in CF.

by Brett Perryman on Sep 29, 2006 10:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Alex rodriguez has kd near 140 times a year

There are tons of guys who strikeout a ton in baseball and are exceptional hitters.

Arod kd 140 times the past few years and hes been pretty good, Soriano has managed to hold his own. Dunn is a pretty productive hitter and he ks unbeilievable amount.

The reserach I've seen, shows that ks arent great for batting avg, the more contact you make the more hits you should get, pretty logical. However, the research also shows that as long as you walk at least half as much as you K, your fair pretty well. And I believe wood is around that ratio.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Sep 30, 2006 3:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

disagree - somewhat

So what you are trying to say is that since one of the best players ever is able to get away with high K's then so will Wood?

I do understand players can succeed in spite of high K numbers. But it should be a huge red flag until Brandon proves that he will succeed in spite of it. And I won't be convinced until I see him mashing in the bigs.

by pedrophile on Sep 30, 2006 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

disagree - somewhat

So what you are trying to say is that since one of the best players ever is able to get away with high K's then so will Wood?

by pedrophile on Sep 30, 2006 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

DOH!

I hate when that happens.

by pedrophile on Sep 30, 2006 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's a big difference

between putting up a good line with high strikeouts in the majors and doing the same thing in the minors.

Players who strike out a lot in the minor leagues strike out a lot more in the majors unless they make major improvements. Wood's whiffing way more than single season K leader Adam Dunn ever did in the minors.

He's still got a very high upside, but pedrophile's right on. He's not a lock for major league success until he either cuts the Ks back or actually proves he can beat the odds by succeeding in the majors with his current approach.

by jhelfgott on Sep 30, 2006 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

In all combined at bats for both Dunn and Wood, Dunn struck out 22.3% of the time whereas Wood strikes out 26% of the time; Not a huge difference.

A pipeline of talent, welcome to Anaheim.

by ClutchHomer on Sep 30, 2006 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wood vs. Dunn

In 2005 Wood K'd 23% of his AB (22% of PA) and in 2006 it was 33% (29% of PA). So his K numbers are getting worse as he goes up the ladder. Which is to be expected. How much worse will he be in AAA and then MLB if he doesn't make improvements?

Brandon Wood
year K/AB K/PA Level
2005 23% 22% High A
2006 33% 29% AA

Adam Dunn:
year K/AB K/PA Level
2006 31% 26% MLB
2001 23% 20% A & AAA
2000 24% 19% A

As you can see Adam Dunn had much lower K rates in the minors and as expected they rose as he went up the levels. Not only are Woods numbers worse they project to be even worse as he climbs the ladder. These numbers are NOT sustainable at the higher levels.

IMO - Brandon Wood can not succeed at higher levels without making improvements.

ps: and Dunn did hit around .330 in the minors his last year, but his avg hovers around 250 in the majors.

by pedrophile on Sep 30, 2006 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Strikeouts

There are two types of strikeout/power hitters...ones who strike out a lot and have high batting averages (Manny, A-Rod, etc.), and ones who strike out a lot and have low batting averages (Dunn, Glaus, etc.).

If I had to guess, I'd assume the reason for this is because Dunn and Glaus types have to swing for the fences to get 40 HRs...resulting in weaker contact when they don't fully connect. Complete hitters like A-Rod and Manny are able to maintain a more level swing and still get their power numbers, so when the make groundball contact, it's more likely to get through the infield.

Just a guess though...and I'd guess that Wood will be somewhere in the middle ground. I see him as a Michael Cuddyer type hitter. Don't think I'm selling Wood short, either, because I think Cuddyer's breakout is just the beginning.

by limozeen on Sep 30, 2006 9:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs