Eating Crow

by John Sickels on Sep 25, 2006 2:20 PM EDT in News Comment 62 comments

Eating Yankee Crow

Yankees fans enjoy teasing me about Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera. I was generally lukewarm towards Cano and he's exceeded expectations. I was downright dismissive of Cabrera, and he's been solid. Let's take a look at this.

First, let's review the Crystal Ball I did for Cano back in May. His projected 2006 numbers:

147 games, 543 at-bats, 160 hits, 35 doubles, 17 homers, 32 walks, 78 strikeouts, 71 RBI, .295 average, .464 SLG, estimated OBP (does not include HBP) .334, isolated power .169.

The reality so far:
115 games, 455 at-bats, 155 hits, 40 doubles, 13 homers, 18 walks, 50 strikeouts, 73 RBI, .341 average, .519 SLG, actual OBP .365, isolated power .178.

I noted in the Crystal Ball that I wasn't sure if Cano would develop into more of a power or more of a batting average guy, so I split the difference. It seems that in reality he has taken the batting average route. Note that he's actually been less patient than I anticipated, but it hasn't hurt him a bit. In this case, I thought Cano would be a solid player, but he's been excellent instead. In my defense, I will note that there is nothing in his minor league record to indicate that he could hit .341 at the major league level. The stats don't show it, and the scouting reports didn't either. He's better than I thought he would be, but I don't count this as a major miss. This is just a small Crow snack I think.

Now, Melky is a fuller meal I fear. He's hitting .282/.363/.395 for the Yankees in 123 games. I infamously cracked that Melky "can't XXXing hit" but he's shown that he can.

Why did I think that Melky was no good?

First, his track record. He was a mediocre hitter in Double-A and Triple-A in 2005. He was young enough to improve, but when I saw him play in person, I thought his swing was very awkward. He had major problems controlling the strike zone when I saw him. His swing had no loft to it, just a punch-and-judy approach without a lot of strength to back it up. I also had information from a very reliable source that at least two major league teams had scouted Cabrera closely during the summer of '05 during trade negotiations, and both had determined that he would not hit at the major league level.

So, I downplayed Melky because his numbers weren't hot at the higher levels, he looked bad when I saw him myself, and he looked bad when other people saw him too. In retrospect his 2004 performance (he hit well in A-ball) was a better read on his future than his '05 numbers.

I would note that he isn't quite as good as some Yankees fans believe....a .395 SLG is hardly impressive these days. . .but the bottom line is that he has held his own and controlled the strike zone at the major league level, something that I was extremely dismissive and doubtful about before the year. Even if he turns into just a fourth outfielder who hits for average and gets on base, that's still better than I expected. I was wrong about him, but understand that my pre-season opinion about Cabrera was not reached flippantly, even if I expressed it in a flippant way.

0 recs | Comment 62 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Cano

The Cano stuff is more David Cameron than you, John.

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Sep 25, 2006 3:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

question

why does anyone pay attention to that guy anyway?

by PooNani on Sep 25, 2006 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who's David Cameron?

by SirCaptain on Sep 25, 2006 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

he writes for baseballanalysts, BP, and mainly for USSmariner.

he's written a ton of dumb crap in the past but the Cano post last year takes the cake

http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2005/2/20/93945/3590/19#19

by PooNani on Sep 25, 2006 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i wouldn't say that he is wrong just yet

he said:

"Offensively, he's a fastball hitter. He sits dead red on every pitch and waits for a mistake."

can anyone tell me what pitches a first year second baseman is most likely to see batting 9th in a lineup that is as stacked as the yankees'?

"Any good breaking ball or offspeed pitch will have him out in front."

i find this believable.

"He's mostly a gap hitter, lacking the power to drive the ball consistently over the wall."

seems right on the money.

"To add insult to injury, he's also a terrible baserunner."

also, right on the money.

by overlord on Sep 25, 2006 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The biggest point

I could see Cano having a prime where he hits .280/.320/.400 while playing 1B.

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Sep 25, 2006 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it was actually "while playing awful defense

and if you take him out of that yankee lineup, i don't doubt that his prime wouldn't be much better than .280/.320/.400

by overlord on Sep 25, 2006 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

haha

now i see where youre coming from jim caple

by PooNani on Sep 25, 2006 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

cano

you think batting average is that dependent on protection? Watching him regularly it is clear that he hits breaking pitches well in fact he hits many the opposite way which is hard to do when your that in front of them.

by Kafa on Sep 25, 2006 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

here is what i think,

no, batting average is not directly dependent on a player's protection in the lineup.

however, the players who hit behind cano do have an effect on the way he is pitched. if you have hideki matsui and jorge posada batting behind cano, you might be less inclined to throw breaking balls low and away and more inclined to throw fastballs over the fat part of the plate because of the slight chance that he might actually take a walk.

by overlord on Sep 25, 2006 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re

yet you still havent backed up your claim that hes a poor breaking ball hitter because that was just made up on your part

by PooNani on Sep 25, 2006 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i never made that claim

i only stated that i found david cameron's assertion to be believable. i never made the assertion though.

by overlord on Sep 25, 2006 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

"can anyone tell me what pitches a first year second baseman is most likely to see batting 9th in a lineup that is as stacked as the yankees'?"

It's his 2nd year and most of his ABs have been in the 6 hole. David was writing about him after seeing him play in AA/AAA

""Any good breaking ball or offspeed pitch will have him out in front."

i find this believable. "

Based on what? Unless youre saying that every player is out on front on a good breaking pitch. Cano has shown himself to be a very good breaking ball hitter.

""He's mostly a gap hitter, lacking the power to drive the ball consistently over the wall."

seems right on the money."

He's slugging .519 overall and .636 since the all-star break. Anyone whos watched him consistently that says he lacks power is delirious

""To add insult to injury, he's also a terrible baserunner."

also, right on the money."

Again, what have you been watching? We clearly don't have alot of data to go by for this, but i've rarely seen him get thrown out on the bases and hes very adept at taking an extra base on throws from the outfield. How many times have you seen him, pray tell?

by PooNani on Sep 25, 2006 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

GAP

"He's slugging .519 overall and .636 since the all-star break. Anyone whos watched him consistently that says he lacks power is delirious"

40 doubles and 13 homers is the definition of GAP power.

by nms on Sep 28, 2006 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually

It is 15 in 119 games which over a 162 game season equates to 20 hr's which at the 2B position is the definition of power. (IMHO of course)

by slickwdb on Sep 29, 2006 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Batting 9th?

Cano has batted 9th fewer than 200 times so far in his 2-year career. In 2005, he batted primarily in the 2-hole, and in 2006, primarily 6th.

by BobbyMac on Sep 25, 2006 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dumb crap a little much

It might be fair to say that Cameron didn't see Cano's breakout, but honestly - most people didn't. Why are we jumping all over him?

I happen to enjoy his stuff at USS Mariner and Baseball Analysts.

by sasquatch83 on Sep 25, 2006 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because Cameron

much though I respect him, loves to make outrageous statements, like comparing Papelbon to Clint Nageotte.

by rfloh on Sep 26, 2006 8:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait a minute!

I posted on here that Papelbon was a top-10 pitching prospect entering this season, and maybe top-5. I received numerous replies stating directly that I was an idiot, or implying as much. Aside from making my visits to the site less frequent, this really made it clear to me that pre-season people didn't think Papelbon had much upside. In fact, people repeatedly expressed their adamant belief that his upside was that of a #3 starter.

For a writer who posts on the M's board (presumably a fan) to claim that Papelbon was similar to Nageotte - who has been rated #73, #45, and #72 on the BA top-100 in his career - doesn't seem far-fetched to me at all. I'd be surprised if many scouts would rate their "stuff" as being much different from each other.

I don't agree with his assessment of Cano, but then again, I'm easily wowed by a 21-year-old lefty 2bman who slugs .450 in the majors and has a high XBH%. Then again, suggesting that he ends up like Marlon Anderson (more-or-less the summary cameron ended up with) doesn't seem "outrageous", just pessimistic, IMO.

by BobbyMac on Sep 26, 2006 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dave Cameron

The guy is intelligent and a good writer, but he's better at statistical analysis at the major league level than minor league prospects. His evaluation of talent is poor and is clouded by his enormous ego. He's written negatively about AAA prospects he's watched in live games, that turn out to be excellent major league players.

"We can never have enough prospects"-GM Mark Shapiro

by Empire66 on Sep 28, 2006 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well done

I always admire pundits who admit when they were wrong and explain why they thought what they did at the time. This game yields mistakes all the time, but not everyone is willing to go back and talk about the misses. I appreciate that you do, John.

by FunWithHeadlines on Sep 25, 2006 4:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

seconding this

and his criticisms of both are very true

by PooNani on Sep 25, 2006 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

FYI

Unless I got some of the numbers wrong, bt EQA, Cano is the best offensive 2B in baseball. If you give BPro's defensive numbers credence, he's the best 2B in baseball, period.

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Sep 25, 2006 4:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

don't know about those measurements

but there's no way he's better than Utley (in my opinion)...

by Dfarth on Sep 25, 2006 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

heres some numbers

Cano

Overall: .341/.365/.519
Home: .313/.343/.497
Away: .362/.382/.535
EQA: .302
Rate: 111
RAR: 29

Utley

Overall: .309/.378/.531
Home: .333/.400/.579
Away: .285/.356/.482
EQA: .298
Rate: 94
RAR: 14

by PooNani on Sep 25, 2006 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'll take utley's isoobp and isop

over cano's batting average.

by overlord on Sep 25, 2006 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

utley

is also 4 years older

i find it funny that a young player breaks out at 22 in the majors, improves next year, and then all of a sudden he is at his ceiling? maybe he wont get alot better, but right now he is one of the best second baseman in baseball and people need to stop trying to find excuses why he is not

by bmxstreetrider86 on Sep 25, 2006 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this makes no sense

regardless of how he got the better OBP and SLG he has it. Better OBP and SLG = more runs. Having it based off batting average doesnt make it any lesser

by nms on Sep 28, 2006 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very true.

It doesn't make it any lesser, and he had the best year for a 2B. The question is whether it has predictive value, which would make him the best 2B in baseball, if he keeps putting up these numbers year after year. The fact that so much of his production is based on BA is what makes people hesitant to say he'll repeat his performance. But he got better as the year went on, so who knows? We'll just have to see what next year brings.

by abbreviatedman on Oct 2, 2006 7:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

eqa and rar

are measures of preformance but don't necessarily have predictive value. i'm more then willing to admit that cano had the best year for 2nd basemen, but that does not make him the best 2nd baseman in baseball. also rate and rate2 are flawed statistics, like most defensive stats

by Trenchtown on Sep 25, 2006 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not that far off on Cano?

Other than trading about 15 points of isoOBP for 10 points of isoSLG, the iso's are pretty much dead on from Cano's crystal ball. It's the avg that's out of whack. Hasn't sabermetrics shown that avg is one of the stats most prone to fluctuation?

No, I'm not sold that Cano's breakout is a long-term development.

by rlwhite on Sep 25, 2006 6:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cano

I live in NYC and am not a Yankees fan, but I see a lot of Yankee games.

One interesting thing about Cano is he has hit some shockingly long home runs. When he gets ahold of one it is suprising to see a smaller guy hit one that far.

Over the long haul I think LHP will give him problems.

I was looking at an old (I think 2005 book) Baseball America list of top 2B prospects, and Cano was #4 and Kendrick was #5, which I found interesting.

by elricsi on Sep 25, 2006 6:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not Sold

I recall hearing that Cano's BA was mostly fueled by some crazy high BABIP. If that's the case, I'm deeply suspicious that his current year is his true talent level, vs. the benefits of being in an amazingly stacked lineup combined with luck.

That said, he's obviously a very fine hitter in some ways. I think he's not this good, and I think that he may have weaknesses that will be better exploited as he goes forward with his career.

by NBarnes on Sep 25, 2006 8:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

High Avg

is always fueled by high BABIP, but hitters have a lot of control over BABIP, it's not the same as pitchers. Cano hits the ball hard, doesn't strike out much, and hits mostly line drives and ground balls. That's a recipe for a high batting average.

His BABIP this year is .362, which is high, but not so high that it has to be very lucky. Jeter's career BABIP is .363, for example. But even if his true BABIP is more like .340, he would still put up a very impressive line for a second basemen

by dasperp on Sep 25, 2006 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BABIP

Out of the top 40 in AL batting averages, His K rate (per OA) is 11th best.

Out of the top 40 in AL batting average, Cano's BABIP is 4th- behind jeter, Mauer and Reed Johnson.
The top 10 in BABIP (out of teh top 40):
Derek Jeter
Joe Mauer
Reed Johnson
Robinson Cano
Gary Matthews Jr.
Mark DeRosa
Manny Ramirez
Miguel Tejada
Ichiro Suzuki
Victor Martinez

I think we can likely say that Reed Johnson, Matthews JR and DeRosa aree having flukey seasons...

by Johnny Ruin on Sep 26, 2006 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but....

Cano doesn't have Jeter's patience or power. I would be shocked to find that his natural BABIP is as high as Jeter's, unless the theory is that Cano will turn into chibi-Ichiro with more power.

by NBarnes on Sep 26, 2006 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

power

he has hit for more power than jeter this year despite having similar averages

by bmxstreetrider86 on Sep 27, 2006 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

162 game averages

88 R
203 H
48 2B
3 3B
18 HR
88 RBI
77 SO
.318 AVG
.342 OBP
.487 SLG
.829 OPS

whether he's "the best" 2nd baseman in the league or not, i dont think its an issue...fact is, at 23 he's a premier player at his position (granted 2nd base is a weak offensive position), i'm a yankee fan and i dont have an issue with someone saying utley is better

40 doubles in 116 games this year is a good sign as far as developing power, but even if he doesnt start lifting the ball, he should have a good amount of xbh, based on his 162 game averages (69 xbh), he'd be 8th in all of baseball in that category

he doesnt walk, but he doesnt K a great amount either, so he's putting the ball in play a lot, which could fluctuate his AVG

by nyybaseball99 on Sep 25, 2006 8:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re: cano

8th in the AL*** (sorry, dont want to display false info)

by nyybaseball99 on Sep 25, 2006 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Class

Classy article.

JS also said he was rethinking Clippard a few weeks ago.

Unfortunately, we will all have to rethink Duncan as well. Oh well, ya win some, ya lose some.

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Sep 26, 2006 12:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

its a shame

that 90% of yankee fans claim anti-yankee bias when a scout or writer doesnt rave about their prospects (gives the sensible yankee fans a bad name)...and whenever the player performs better than expected, those fans need to cram it down everyone's throat because they were "right"

people are wrong about prospects a lot, and these projections come from what is available, and as john said, nothing predicted this type of success for cano...if everyone was dead on about a prospect, we wouldnt have this website because there'd be no room for discussion

by nyybaseball99 on Sep 26, 2006 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait....

The Yankees have a farm system all of a sudden?

Well, I'll be damned....

-Rays fan

by The Rocc on Oct 1, 2006 4:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cabrera

I see a little Alex Rios in his stat line -- only Cabrera is younger than Rios was when he broke in, and seems to have a bit better eye...

Go ahead and shoot your mouth off, like it might kill the silence.

by ESiegrist on Sep 26, 2006 3:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

rios

i think the difference between the two is that rios, based on his body size, has the ability to develop some serious power if he fills out into maybe a juan gonzalez, it doesnt look like cabrera will come close to a 30 HR season, something rios can definitely reach in the next couple years

by nyybaseball99 on Sep 26, 2006 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Melky

Melky is doing just fine.

.753 OPS
Cano was .778 last year.

Melkyhas shown great plate discipline. The power will come as he fills out and matures. The guy is only 22 and is in the bigs in a huge pressure situation.

This year has been great for rookies. IN previous years, a .753 OPS would be pretty darned good for a 22 year old rookie.

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Sep 26, 2006 6:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Melky/Mauer

Melky's stats are almost exactly identical to what Mauer did last season at age 22, in nearly every category.

Seems like a good sign for Yankee fans, although Melky has a much smaller frame to work with.

by Old Hoss on Sep 26, 2006 7:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cano....

with another HR tonight. He's been tearing it up since he came off the DL. He's now matched his HR total from last year at 14.

by Tabata Time on Sep 26, 2006 8:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

When Dioner Navarro and Cano were in Tampa...

I thought Navarro was the better prospect. I was far from alone. How wrong we can be!

Full credit to the Yankee organization for accurately assessing their prospects.

by Mike Green on Sep 27, 2006 1:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Um

I still hope that you're right....

by The Rocc on Oct 1, 2006 4:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually....

I think we should give full credit to the DBacks for asking for Navarro instead of Cano or Wang.

by Tabata Time on Sep 27, 2006 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

navarro

i think that type of evaluation of a trade isnt necesarily accurate...who's to say that if navarro has stayed with the yankees, a coach may have taught or said something to him that could have made a big difference...different settings produce different results, especially with young players i think

by nyybaseball99 on Sep 27, 2006 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Navarro/Cano

Well, if the D'Backs preferred Navarro to Cano too, I guess that adds to the view that underrating Cano (in hindsight) was widespread.

by Mike Green on Sep 27, 2006 3:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Navarro

The DBacks wanted Navarro because the Dodgers were interested in him.

Navarro is also a year and a half younger than Cano-
at the age of 22 years 8 months Navarro is a catcher with a career MLB line of .264/.342/.364 (The average catcher in 2006 has hit: .269/.329/.416)

Cano, when he was the same age (at about the all- star break in 2005) had a mlb career line of: .288/.313/.459 (2Bs hit .273/.334/.412 in 2005)

Really, Cano was a career .277 hitter in the minors (about the same as Navarro)- Navarro's not the fastest guy, he's not the strongest guy, it's not so much that no one saw this breakout- it's a matter that no one really could have seen this breakout coming

by Johnny Ruin on Sep 27, 2006 5:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Positional stats

Johnny Ruin, where can I find those positional averages for all spots in the lineup? Thanks,

by Flynn Blake on Sep 28, 2006 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ESPN

by Johnny Ruin on Sep 29, 2006 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can you be a little more specific, please

... and send me just one link that shows those? I'd really appreciate it, am trying to do some statistical groundwork for next season for a 30-team DMB league. I spent a half hour just now trying to find them and couldn't. Thanks.

by Flynn Blake on Sep 29, 2006 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't know ...

where he got averages from, but the by-team catching stats are at http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=9&seasonType=2&type =type1&sort=OPS&split=78&season=2006

STATS.com pay section has team and league "profiles", where you can find it. Honestly, I don't know where it is at the BP site.

by BobbyMac on Sep 30, 2006 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Try BPro

I found them there instead.

Thanks anyway.

by Flynn Blake on Sep 30, 2006 3:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Make that another HR by Cano....

John should've written this a long time, ago. :-)

by Tabata Time on Sep 27, 2006 9:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow...

Cano's damn good in September two strait years in a role.

As for power, anyone watching Yankees game long enough will tell you that Cano's power is vastly superior to Jeter's though he doesn't have much value in SB and OBP. but he'll hit for power that's for sure. and I think people go way over the top on the average fluate more than OBP thing, yes it's generally true, but that doesn't mean guys won't improve on OBP (or regress for that matter)

I'm not sure on Melky, he can really go either way. Torre's now playing him in CF again, IF he could develop normally AND play CF then he's got some pretty serious value. thoguh Damon is signed through 09...(still though, more depth never hurts. )

by RollingWave on Sep 28, 2006 3:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Melky

I like Melky a lot, but I don't think he has a lot of growth, at least not that typical of a 22-year old already performing well in the majors.

He should hit for a decent average and his eye has shocked me, but with his frame and as "handsy" as his swing is I don't think he'll develop much more power.

by Kyle on Sep 29, 2006 4:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs