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King Dream Weaver

This guy is going to when a few Cy Youngs in his time. Look at what he did in college......

He won a RECORD six Collegiate Baseball Player of the Week Awards and 13 Conference Pitcher of the Week honors.

Weaver also won eight National Player of the Year Awards, four of which were as follows:

  1. Golden Spikes Award
  2. Dick Howser Award
  3. Roger Clemens Award
4  Baseball America Collegiate Baseball Player of the Year.

He also has Francisco Liriano type ERA and WHIP.

Why doesn't he get more respect? He's clearly the King of Young Pitchers.

Let's see how he pitches tonight.

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What part about his dominance do you doubt?

by grandslam on Sep 15, 2006 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe it's the fact
that he's starting to allow HR like he should being such a strong flyball pitcher; 5 in just his last 17.1 IP.

Add into that his BABIP starting to regress to the mean, and he will come back to earth.

He's still good, but he won't keep pitching like he has been.

by AucklandGM on Sep 15, 2006 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh
Oh...OK.  Thanks for letting me know that.

I think I just saw him strike out four of the first six Texas batters.

by grandslam on Sep 15, 2006 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So do you like Weaver?
I wasn't completely sure from that.

by Brett Perryman on Sep 15, 2006 7:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

amazing
it's amazing there are actually fans of baseball on this site. WOW

by grandslam on Sep 15, 2006 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let's just throw out some numbers real quick like
xFIP/Ages:

Jered Weaver:4.57/23
Fransico Liriano:2.48/22
Felix Hernandez:3.59/20
Justin Verlander:4.48/23
Matt Cain:4.67/21
Cole Hamels:3.99/22
Scott Kazmir:3.59/22
Jeremy Bonderman:3.48/23

by Goose on Sep 15, 2006 7:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

throwing numbers
Hmm....let's throw some numbers around...

11-2 with a 2.30 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP

He'll probably lower that 2.30 ERA tonight.

At what point do you become a believer?

by grandslam on Sep 15, 2006 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hmmm
If he can do this next year for a full season then MAYBE.

by nate050904 on Sep 15, 2006 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right On
"He'll probably lower that 2.30 ERA tonight."

And he did........his ERA is now at 2.02

I loved it when I predicted that.

by grandslam on Sep 15, 2006 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

your arm tired at all?
i mean its on double time now, patting yourself AND jered weaver on the back...

by robcast23 on Sep 16, 2006 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

xFIP
A descpition is available here.

And I just put down each pitchers ages because we are talking about young pitchers.

Weaver is damn good, I'm not saying he's not. But he's certainly not as good as Lirano,Hernandez,Kazmir, or Bonderman.

by Goose on Sep 16, 2006 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Invented By Tangotiger?
Now there's a name I have a ton of confidence in!  I'm not saying Weaver is better than the guys you mentioned, but he may well turn out to be.  To say he's CERTAINLY not as good based on a stat invented by a guy named Tangotiger has to qualify as this week's sign that the apocalypse is upon us.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 16, 2006 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

gotta
side with the DrB here, some guy created a stat that obviously is anti flyball.  When Weaver starts givin up jacks on a regular basis, then maybe I'll worry about his success.  I'd be more worried about some of the other's walk rates and propensity to get injured.  Great stuff is one thing, but you gotta be able to pitch still.  Go back through BA's top 100's and look at all the pitchers who had great stuff, but never did anything b/c they couldn't figure out how to pitch at the major league level.  

i still dont see the problem with giving up flyballs, seems a lot of strikeout pitchers pitch up in the zone which would lead to more flyballs.  just keep it in the yard.

by SoCalSoxFan on Sep 16, 2006 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know which is weirder
The fact that you don't know who tangotiger is, or the fact that you're using a blatant ad hominem attack to make your point.

by limozeen on Sep 16, 2006 2:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're aware how ignorant that makes you sound,
right?

Tom Tango is one of the most respected analysts in Sabermetrics. Instead of a reactionary response based on his chosen (and admittedly silly) name, you might want to, I don't, check his credentials or, even, see if his reasoning and methods are sound.

Not to be a jerk, I might have said it, but, trust me, plenty of readers here thought it.

by Malchemist on Sep 16, 2006 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

TT
Not every baseball researcher agrees with all of TT's methodology.  I would be curious to see how a team would do that hires TT for their stat guy.

But anwyay, it would be better to rate WTY (Jered), by a selection of stats, especially comp lists.

He will hit his rough patches like every other pitcher, but at every stop along the way he has put up otherworldy performance numbers.

His control is about the best I have ever seen.  It seems like every pitch is exactly where he wants it.  Most of his walks seem to come with 2 outs when he is throwing pitches just off the plate.

With pitchers anything can happen, but I am sure looking forward to see how this story goes.

by elricsi on Sep 16, 2006 2:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Second this
Tangotiger's work has been described as "eloquent" and "outstanding" by others that work with stats/analyze baseball for a living.  The guy can back himself up statistically/mathematically.  Thinking the name is silly and dismissing him is pretty Homer Simpson-esque.

by slurve on Sep 16, 2006 6:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tango
I'm sure that Tango is a smart guy and I'm sure his stat has some kind of utility.  I guess I was reacting, not so much to him, as the entrenched propensity by some on this board to dig up some stat like that and then use it as if that's the last word on the subject.  Then, if anyone dares to question it, they sanctimoniously go into the "you're an ignoramus" mode as if the only people who know anything about baseball are the ones who throw of "Tangotiger bombs" to prove their points.

Had the guy who wrote the post I reacted to said something along the lines of "You know, I think FIP is a good stat and it would seem to favor these other pitchers", I could accept that.  What he said was those guys are CERTAINLY better than Weaver based solely on that one stat.  That is ridiculous and that's why I reacted.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 16, 2006 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree
People -especially here at times- like to take it even one step further by only quoting stats that support what they are trying say.  Stats that don't support them or contradict what they are saying are always conveniently left out.  Weaver's raw numbers are awesome, but some of the periferal/indicator numbers tell a bit of a different story.  They don't point to a total collapse, but there is definately some things that remind me to temper my expectations of him in the future.

I know you're smarter than to dismiss someone solely because of a nickname, I just thought that needed to be called out.

by slurve on Sep 16, 2006 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Funny Name
Sorry for the ill advised attempt to add a little humor to the post.  I think you have to admit that it sounds a little surreal for someone to be pimping a stat as the last word on something when the author of the stat is some guy who calls himself Tangotiger.

Anyway, I appreciate your last response and hopefully we've restored some balance to the discussion here.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 16, 2006 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree that there is more
to evaluating a young pitcher than any one statistic can provide--even a very good one like FIP--especially given how little major league data we have on Weaver.

I think I was just trying to give you that good-buddy you're-embarrassing-yourself nudge in the back. I could tell you were kidding, but, let's just say, it wasn't working.

I'm glad everyone is mature enough to not let this turn into a flame war.

by Malchemist on Sep 16, 2006 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait and see
I like Weaver, not quite that much, but he's definately better than I gave him credit for originally.

While he's been good, there certainly are plenty of signs this won't continue.  Once he starts to go through the same teams a few more times, we'll see.  Look how good Felix was last year.  Weaver will hit the skids at some point, just like everyone else.  It will be interesting to see how bad things get for him and how well he recovers.

by slurve on Sep 15, 2006 8:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

OK
I think that his awesome Command, Deception and Movement will allow him to escape any skids....but, we'll see. You may be right. He's just so Maddux-like with his command. It's awesome to watch.

by grandslam on Sep 15, 2006 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

wow
There you go comparing Weaver to Maddux...

Gosh, do you have a man crush on him or something?

by nate050904 on Sep 15, 2006 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dude
He's as good as Maddux in terms of command. That's no secret. I'm waiting for the rest of the world to see it.

7IP 1 hit....so far tonight.

by grandslam on Sep 15, 2006 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and he seems
like the type of guy that will pick up the two seamer ala maddux. . . he's just learning how to pitch in the bigs which is impressive. . . i dont think scioscia is worried about his fly ball tendencies, and doubt he would take liriano and his elbow concerns for weaver straight up.  

by SoCalSoxFan on Sep 15, 2006 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Grandslam
Are you Jeff Weaver trying to pump up your brother? Cause damn your pretty defensive against a guy that doesn't even know you exist. :-/

by nate050904 on Sep 15, 2006 9:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

lol
It's too bad he doesnt have Lirianos stuff... ERA and WHIP don't tell me about a guys ceiling I am sorry.

by nate050904 on Sep 15, 2006 9:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

funny
What's so funny about 1 hit in 7 IP?

Have fun waiting on Felix. Ha Ha

by grandslam on Sep 15, 2006 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stuff?
Jimmy Haynes had very good stuff, Vincente Padilla has very good stuff.  Weaver has a plus fastball and a plus change with a good curve and plus plus command. . . and he knows how to pitch. . . what's not to like?

by SoCalSoxFan on Sep 15, 2006 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

looking good tonight.....
....through 4 innings. And so is Rob Tejeda.

bc

by bluechipper on Sep 15, 2006 9:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He stinks
1 hit in the first 6 innings in Texas.

Ugh, they should trade him for a real pitcher like Prior.

by elricsi on Sep 15, 2006 10:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

guys
remember that shutout Wes Obermueller threw 2 years ago??? HE'S THE BEXXXT EVAA OMGZOMGZOMGZOMGZ
I'll be the first A+ prospect... www.myspace.com/posingforpennies

by ufoboy90 on Sep 15, 2006 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Grandslam
I didn't have anything against you personally until reading this thread. What's your deal man? We get it, you think Jered Weaver is great. Just because someone says something slightly contradictory doesn't mean you should jump down their throats. Agree to disagree man. Jeez.

by Pawtucket Pat on Sep 15, 2006 10:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Right
I'm with you man.....I guess I was a bit rude.
My bad.

What a game!

by grandslam on Sep 15, 2006 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Celebrate!
 I agree with you that  Jared Weaver has been most impressive this year.  He may hit some rough spots ahead, but he looks like a good one.

What I find so remarkable about this season is the number of bright young pitchers who broke in.  I this the beginning of a new golden era of pitching in baseball?

Weaver, Verlander, Liriano(it will be a shame if this is a career ruining injury), Hernandez, Josh Johnson,Matt Cain, Jon Papelbon(see Liriano comment above), Anibel Sanchez, Joel Zumaya........

I can't remember when there were so many great young guns breaking in at once.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 16, 2006 12:07 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Weaver
I love the guy and everything i've seen all season (and not only cuz he just one-hit my team over seven).

by yacck23 on Sep 16, 2006 12:41 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hmm
This quickly turned into the most annoying thread I can remember on this board that doesn't involve politics or Daric Barton

by Jgaztambide on Sep 16, 2006 1:25 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good debate
But at some point doesn't anyone here think we're just splitting hairs. These guys all look like they can be great pitchers. It's odd to see such a large amount of young without anyone looking like an obvious flameout.

In the grand scheme of things, however, one season of MLB play is still a relatively small sample. I cannot say without reservation that Weaver is the best young pitcher, but I can't produce one "all knowing" stat that proves he is not. I guess I still believe that Felix will be the best, but I could be wrong there.

And BTW - Tango Tiger is an excellent analyst and his work in the Fielding Bible is an interesting study into the hardest part of baseball to quantify (except, perhaps, quantifying the value of the manager). Very good work. And like any good stat analyst, he is always trying to find holes in his own work in an effort to improve things even more.

by count sutton on Sep 16, 2006 12:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

TINSTAPP?
I don't know how many folks here buy into the TINSTAPP argument.  I personally think that is a little too strong a statement, but it does refer to the general difficulty in forecasting the success/failure of young pitchers.  Remember when the Cubs looked set for years to come with Prior and Wood?  I certainly remember the Ainsworth/Foppert/Williams excitement around the Giants a few years ago.

With that in mind, isn't it pretty silly to be arguing over which of these kids is going to the HOF and who isn't?  I've said it before, but I'll say it again.  I don't remember when I've seen so many extremely bright young pitchers come into the game at one time.  I find enjoyment in marveling at that rather than arguing over which ones are going to be better, something that is relatively unknowable.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 16, 2006 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eeeash
Prior, Wood, Cruz was ranked #6 by BA, Guzman, Brownlie, Jones, Sisco... I have to go cry myself to sleep now.

by slurve on Sep 16, 2006 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fielding Bible
Tango is a great sabermetrician, maybe the best, but he didn't have anything to do with the Fielding Bible.

My own thoughts about Weaver: he's been awesome so far, he won't always have a record this good, but his "true talent" is probably better than his xFIP.

by studes on Sep 17, 2006 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

TINSTAAP
dictionary definition of Prospect:
# Something expected; a possibility.
# prospects

   1. Chances.
   2. Financial expectations, especially of success.

So to invalidate or issue a declaimer that something is risky or chancy - when the whole meaning of the word is that it is risky or chancy seems very redundant to me.

Position prospects are just as risky, they just flame out less dramatically. Everyone is suprised about the Brazeltons, Fopperts, etc. But the Burroughs, Restovichs, Hensons, etc. are certainly there in equal numbers.

by pedrophile on Sep 16, 2006 7:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good Points
I tend to agree with that.  I don't have any numbers to present, but my recollection tell me that hitting prospects are just as shaky as pitching prospects, if not more.  There are just tons of guys who can mash in the minor but can't seem to get it together in the majors.  Some of the more advanced statistical analysis helps explain why, but there are still a lot of cases that are just plain mysteries.

I think pitching flameouts are more often due to sudden injuries so the fall is more spectacular, but there are an awful lot( Kirk Saarloos comes to mind) who put up great minor league numbers and for whatever reason, never live up to that in the majors.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 16, 2006 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Weaver is just this year's Zach Duke
for people that are like "Omg wins and ERA!"

by Fett42 on Sep 17, 2006 10:04 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well.
I think he's better than Duke.  He certainly has better numbers than Duke had last year.  Better WHIP, better K rate, telling factors.

But Weaver's not even the best rookie pitcher in the AL.  His flyball tendencies are starting to catch up to him, with 8 HRs in the last 55 IP.  Don't get me wrong, he's going to be really, really good, I thought Weaver was underrated entering the season, and I'm a big fan of his (whenever he's not pitching against my Sox).  But his flyball tendencies will hurt him.  And, more importantly, he won't do this well on his second time through the league.

He's not going to go 25-5, 2.15 next year.  He won't "even" go 20-8, 3.40.  He'll be a very good pitcher, and probably in a couple years he'll be a truly excellent pitcher for a couple years.  But let's see him prove he can maintain a below-3 ERA over a full year before we call him the next Pedro.

by abbreviatedman on Sep 17, 2006 10:52 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Jeff Weaver Worries Me
His younger brothers career track worries me in regards to Jered Weaver.  At one point, Jeff  Weaver not only looked like a future ace, but he was pitching like one with Detroit before being traded to the Yankees.  At the same age Weaver is right now, Jeff had better control but perhaps less stuff than Jered, although Jeff was a more GB oriented pitcher.   He gave up a higher ERA, but also pitched in for a much worse team with a terrible defense.  Jeff and Jered's periphals at the same age look pretty similar, except for his H/9 innings.  That, and his sparkling ERA, probably have more to do with Jered's .242 BABIP than superior stuff.

My point, though, is that Jeff didnt go from being traded for Jeremy Bonderman to being waiver wire fodder because of a lack of stuff, control, or health.  Jeff became a mediocre, then crappy, pitcher because he really doesnt have the mental tools to be an ace pitcher.  Once hitters in each league figuered him out, he couldn't make the counter-adjustments like a ace should.  The only thing thats kept him as a starter is his durability (I dont believe he's ever seen the DL).

Obviously, like Jeff, Jered has some excellent natural ability, but it remains to be seen how Jered reacts once hitters see him multiple times and figure him out.  Can he make the adjustments and does he have the mental make-up?  Jeff didnt.  

This isnt to say that I wouldnt love Jered Weaver on my favorite team, and I root for Jeff's old team.  Jered is easily one of the 5 best young pitchers in baseball, and a huge asset for the Angels.  But the same could be said about Jeff and Detroit six years ago, and yet Drombowski was smart for selling on him.  After Jered's 200 season, BaseballProspectus had this to say about him:

"The most exciting player on the Tigers (and not just because he led the league in hit batsmen), Jeff Weaver has absolutely electric stuff ... even more important was his increased maturity on the mound. Pay no attention to the 11-15 record; according to Michael Wolverton's Support-Neutral work, Weaver was the sixth-unluckiest pitcher in the majors last year."

I like and root for both Weavers, they're SoCal guys; It's just that Im concerned, thats all.  This is possibly, and hopefully, a baseless concern.

by sanchez101 on Sep 18, 2006 12:10 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

A minor quibble
If I hear anyone call him "Dream" Weaver again, don't be surprised if you find me outside of Joe Buck's house with four guns, a hatchet, a bullet-proof vest, and half a bottle of Grey Goose.  I remember watching one of his starts against the Red Sox and Buck was trying at every possible opportunity to get that nickname over.  It just sounded contrived as all hell.
"What you're forgetting is that you need at least three DWIs before you're considered a 'dominant' drunk driver." (limozeen)

by drjayphd on Sep 18, 2006 1:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well...
That's Joe Buck for you. Is there a more obnoxious tv crew than Buck and McCarver?

by Pawtucket Pat on Sep 18, 2006 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Buck
He's even worse doing football.

His call when Randy Moss feigned mooning...unbelievably stupid.

by limozeen on Sep 18, 2006 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But.
He's funny in those Holiday Inn commercials, though.

by abbreviatedman on Sep 18, 2006 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Imagine
Imagine if you had to choose between Morgan/Miller and Buck/McCarver.  I mean, you'd have to choose Morgan/Miller, wouldn't you?  And I hate Joe Morgan.  Miller gets on my nerves too, especially with the way he tries to make EVERY SINGLE THING sound interesting by inflecting his voice in amazement at the end of every sentence.

Not to start a political debate, but some cynics would say that choosing between Morgan/Miller and Buck/McCarver is pretty much exactly like choosing a president.

by abbreviatedman on Sep 18, 2006 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

easy choice
I'll jam a pencil in my ear and be deaf rather than choose.

by goalieguy on Sep 18, 2006 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or
You could just never watch the playoffs.  Though I think TBS (or one of the Turner stations, though I think it's TBS) is going to start showing playoff games soon, if not this year, then next.  I trust them WAY more than FOX or ESPN to put on some quality broadcasting.  I enjoyed the random Braves game I'd catch there immensely.

by abbreviatedman on Sep 18, 2006 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That would be great
I honestly cant watch the playoffs anymore if they arent babbling incoherntly they are pitching some dumb show that will be canceled in a week or just doing ads disguised as "interviews" it is just unspeakable (and unwatchable) right now.

There that was my rant.

Braves announcers are great not flashy they just get the job done which is all I ask of announcers. Some announcers seem amazed that we watch the games because of the game and not because them. SHOCKING

by goalieguy on Sep 18, 2006 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You didn't like the Leon interview?
"I honestly cant watch the playoffs anymore if they arent babbling incoherntly they are pitching some dumb show that will be canceled in a week or just doing ads disguised as "interviews" it is just unspeakable (and unwatchable) right now."

I forget when, but didn't Fox interview said character, in character, during an LCS game?  That's beating-worthy.

"What you're forgetting is that you need at least three DWIs before you're considered a 'dominant' drunk driver." (limozeen)

by drjayphd on Sep 18, 2006 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yup - correct
I still can remember seeing that bit and being utterly amazed they would do that. (Yes I know its fox I guess I was nieve at the time)

by goalieguy on Sep 18, 2006 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the dream weaver thing
isn't really Buck's thing, that goes back to Long Beach, when they played that song before he came in. . . also did it in Rancho Cucamonga. . . can't really blame him for that one, maybe just his abuse of it

by SoCalSoxFan on Sep 18, 2006 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I suppose
But did they play the song between every inning where he was still in the game?  (Technically, that's all on FOX's producers.)  Besides, any excuse to bring firearms and bladed objects to Joe Buck's house... ;)
"What you're forgetting is that you need at least three DWIs before you're considered a 'dominant' drunk driver." (limozeen)

by drjayphd on Sep 18, 2006 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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