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Rich Hill

John, I'm wondering if you can comment a little bit on Hill.  A little while back in your Q&A session your response on him was something to the effect that he needs to get into a different organization.  I didn't ask then but I was wondering if you meant he needed a change of scenery to refresh his outlook or you were worried about how the Cubs treat pitchers.

Since that Q&A session (like it had something to do with it), Hill has been on a tear and has been on the verge of dominant.  In 8 of his last 9 starts he's allowed 2 earned runs or less.  The only outing he allowed more than 2 earend was in Colorado.  During that stretch his line looks like this:

55.2 IP, 42 hits, 16 ER, 16 BB, 51 K (2.58 ERA)

I do worry about Dusty overworking pitchers, Hill threw 120 last night, but I am also not nearly as worried about Hill increasing his workload being 26 instead of say 21.  His numbers over the last couple months are starting to resemble what he was doing in AAA.  He has really resembled early Zito over this stretch with a fastball around 90 and a devastating breaking ball.

Bobby Cox had a glowing review of Hill last night:

"He's tough," Atlanta manager Bobby Cox said of Hill. "He's going to be a real good one. He's a good guy to have in your rotation, that's for sure."

I'm asking specifically if you think this is his peak and can he maintain it?  Can he go even a step further to the level of dominance he showed at AAA?  Is this just a good stretch of work and he'll fall back to a #3-4 starter type?

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pitches and coaches
Hill has really been a two pitch pitcher also, which makes his success a bit more surprising.  I'm betting with more exposure Hill's success will go down a bit until he can develop his changeup that he's been working on.

On top of Dusty Baker, John's comment may have been referring to Hill being around Cubs pitching coach, Larry Rothschild, who is noted to promote nibbling.  Interesting enough, Rich Hill attributes his turnaround to Iowa coach, Alan Dunn.

Check out my Chicago Cubs Minor League System website: Top Cubs Prospects

by jonpyardi on Sep 12, 2006 11:29 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Repeats...
Three of Hill's post-recall (7/27) starts have been against teams he faced earlier in the year - SF, STL, and ARZ.  All three of these starts have been 'successful'.  I am inclined to think that more or continued exposure, Hill's success will not go down.  It was often commented that Hill needed to, as you say, stop nibbling and trust his stuff, just as he did in AAA.

by cooper7d7 on Sep 12, 2006 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

good point
You make a fair point, but teams are still developing a scouting report on Hill, we'll see how he adjusts.  Few pitchers can be successful starting with a low 90's fastball and only 2 pitches.

One thing to add is that Hill does have a cutter which you could consider a 3rd pitch.  I'd say the changeup has the potential of making Hill a top of the rotation guy as opposed to a 4 or 5 guy.

Check out my Chicago Cubs Minor League System website: Top Cubs Prospects

by jonpyardi on Sep 12, 2006 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

dont forget
You're talking about a guy with a plus-plus curveball and plus control. Thats a solid #2/#3 type of guy when he's on... of course he needs to develop consistency, but he has the stuff to be this good already, as he has flashed in a couple of starts.
Julian de Lavalle

by jdelavalle on Sep 13, 2006 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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