Wells to San Diego for George Kottaras

by Montreal97 on Aug 31, 2006 9:27 AM EDT Comment 55 comments

(Sorry. My bad. There's a post about this a little further down. I thought I check but must have missed it anyway. I hate when people do this. Myself included.) This deal is only tentaive right now, but I think its a good one.

Theo was asking for Kemp, LaRoche or Looney from the Dodgers.

I think to get Kottaras, even if he's having a down year, is great for a team that doesn't have a young catcher in the system after trading Shoppoch.

Great move by Theo.

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Re:

Why would San Diego make this deal? People are still falling for the David Wells "mystique"?

by eazyb81 on Aug 31, 2006 9:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

If I were San Diego I probably wouldn't make the deal either. But it appears they think they have a keeper in Bard.

And let's not underestimate the impact of make the playoffs. Especially for a team that struggled as long as San Deigo did.

They want people to keep coming back to that new stadium.

by Montreal97 on Aug 31, 2006 9:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re:

I'm not totally against them trading Kottaras, I just don't see why they would want Wells over other veteran pitchers available. I think Wells ship has sailed at this point and he is getting by on his reputation.

If Boston can do it, kudos to them, but I would be scratching my head if I were a Pads fan.

by eazyb81 on Aug 31, 2006 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who else....

... is availible?

by grozzy on Aug 31, 2006 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

No idea, legit waiver info is hard to come by. But I have a hard time believing the best starter out there is a fat 43 year old with a 6.23 ERA.

by eazyb81 on Aug 31, 2006 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There isn't anyone else avaible

That is why theo is demanding so much for wells (espically after his last 5 starts)

by thedude on Aug 31, 2006 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Link?

Do you have a link to pitchers that passed waivers, or are you just going by what you have heard?

If Wells is the best available, I wouldn't even bother making a trade....he is not a good pitcher anymore.

by eazyb81 on Aug 31, 2006 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have you been watching Wells the past three weeks?

Regarding this line: "If Wells is the best available, I wouldn't even bother making a trade....he is not a good pitcher anymore."

Wells last 4 starts:
Baltimore: 7 IP 1 run
Tigers 6 2/3 IP 4 runs
Yankees 7 1/3 IP 2 runs
Mariners 7 IP 2 runs

You're telling me that won't translate to the NL West? If he can go 7 plus strong against AL lineups like the Yankees, I think he can still handle the Dodgers, Giants and DBacks.

by redsahx on Aug 31, 2006 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Other veteran pitchers

Wells has already cleared waivers. He's arguably the best available pitcher to help a playoff team at this point.

by FI on Aug 31, 2006 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Wells ship has sailed?

You're going to have to clarify this remark for me.....
"I just don't see why they would want Wells over other veteran pitchers available. I think Wells ship has sailed at this point and he is getting by on his reputation. "

Let's see
#1 I don't see what other veteran pitchers are available at this point.
#2 Wells ERA this past month was under 3.00. He has had 5 straight very good starts including games against the Yankees and Tigers, and is fresh from not pitching that many innings this year. I don't see how that is "getting by on reputation". The fact is Wells does look like a guy who could be a solid #3 or even a #2 on a playoff staff right now. There is nobody else like that available at this point that is performing like Wells. You only need him for one month anyways and he is hot.

The only reason not to do this trade is it will be a one or two month rental dependign on how far the Padres go. However, Wells is probably better than any pitcher that was traded July 31 this year, never mind August 31.

by redsahx on Aug 31, 2006 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Wells

But Wells is also a old fat guy with a bad back and knee problems. Any given inning he pitches this year could be his last. The guy went into operation shutdown after one scoreless inning in game five of the 2003 W.S. b/c his back stiffened up. The World F'n Series!

If you're going to list all his positives atleast be willing to admit his potential flaws as well. He's got a rubber arm but the rest of his body could go at any time.

All that said, I don't find this Kottaras deal as nuts as the Dodger rumors. Piazza looks like he can carry on for a another year or two. Cali is so much less humid than the east coast which has got to make it easier for catchers to stay fresh over the course of the year. Plus Bard is a good backup and they still have Hundley as a prospect...

Bobby Crosby - a poor man's Adam Everett.

by natsfan2005 on Aug 31, 2006 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course Wells is risky

Yeah I don't deny he could have back problems again or any such thing. But he has barely pitched this year, and has looked very sharp for the past month since he returned so his arm is probably in better shape than most guys this time of year.

My only argument was don't go around telling people he can't pitch anymore when he was a 15 game winner last year, and since coming back last month after getting hit in the knee cap with a line drive, he's looked great. Most of the time he missed this year was due to that Travis Lee line drive, not because of his old age. He would be a huge help to the Padres. Whether it is worth Kotteras or not I don't know.

by redsahx on Aug 31, 2006 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the point remains

Who else is out there?

Yes, he's fat. Yes, he's old. He can certainly fall apart at any moment.

But, the fact is, he's been pitching well, he has big game experience, and he has a hard-on for San Diego. There are many reasons to do this deal, from both sides.

by SmokeyJoeWood on Aug 31, 2006 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Who cares? It's been a freakin month! The dude is 43 years old and extremely overweight, he is due to completely break down at any point in time. Believe it or not, David Wells isn't the first mediocre starter to string together 3 or 4 okay starts.

Just because San Diego may need another starter, doesn't mean trading George Kottaras for David Wells is a good idea.

by eazyb81 on Aug 31, 2006 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because Every Team in the NL is very flawed

Wells could be the peice that bring the Padres an NL penant. He helps the Padres get to the World Series would it matter that he only had 5 or 6 starts in the regular season?

by thedude on Aug 31, 2006 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Of course, but what are the real odds of:

San Diego winning the NL pennant
Wells playing a key role in it?

You have to look at the risk vs. the reward, and I don't think it's in their favor at this point, but i'm not the GM.

by eazyb81 on Aug 31, 2006 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wells is not "mediocre"

Trading Kotteras for any one month rental may not be a good idea. I don't have a problem with that.
Your critcism of Wells though is misguided. Say he is an injury risk all you want but don't claim he has been mediocre when he has pitched.

The problem with this trade isn't Wells.
The last four years he has won 19 games, 15 games, 12 games and 15 games again. His ERA is currently 4.98 in 8 starts this year, and that is due solely to his first game back in April when he still had a bad knee (7 runs in 4 IP), and his first game back earlier this month after not making any rehab appearances(8 runs in 4 2/3). Wells has not been "mediocre" by any means as long as I can remember. If he stays healthy he'll be a big boost to San Diego.

by redsahx on Aug 31, 2006 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

I do think he is mediocre, I don't care if you agree or not; A little 4 game stretch doesn't change my opinion. Numerous mediocre starters this year have managed to string together 3,4,5 quality starts in a row....that doesn't mean that they are anything more than mediocre.

Obviously you are big Red Sox fan and therefore a big fan of Wells, but I think you are being a bit biased. And you can't keep discouting his age, weight, and injury history, because each one is bound to catch up him (and arguably have already).

There's really nothing more to say on this subject, other than I guess we disagree. But I will continue to believe that trading a young catching prospect like Kottaras for a possible one month rental of 43 year old David Wells is an awful deal for the Pads.

by eazyb81 on Aug 31, 2006 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

Well we both probably agree that it's not really a good deal for the Padres. They may be able to stomach it though with Bard's emergence if they really want another starter that badly.

The last thing I would say on Wells is, while you say any Joe could conceivably string together 4 good starts, keep in mind that Wells last four games have not been middle of May middle of June type games. The Red Sox have pretty much needed a big game out of Wells each time, and he delivered. He beat Baltimore after the team was coming off a 3 game sweep in KC. Beat Detroit after the Sox dropped the first 2 in that series. Pitched great against the Yanks after the Sox had dropped the first 4, and was in line for a win again on Saturday night when the team had a chance to pull back within 4 1/2 of the Yanks.

I don't think he's an ace, but he's got a great postseason record and I haven't really seen a major drop off in performance the past two years when he's been out there.

by redsahx on Aug 31, 2006 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

SD owes us

After Boston handed them Josh Bard, they might as well return the favor.

by SmokeyJoeWood on Aug 31, 2006 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mirabelli for Loretta

You were paying them back.

by OneHitWonder on Aug 31, 2006 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget about Cla Meredith

22 straight scoreless outings for the Padres

by sdbaseballfan on Aug 31, 2006 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget

Every pitcher is better off in the NL then the AL. The difference in the two league really is a joke this year. Now watch Rudy Seanez have a great September with the Padres after sucking all year in the AL.

by RandyKutcherHair on Aug 31, 2006 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You should really...

...let Tim Hudson know about this!

by MetfanBren on Aug 31, 2006 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hudson

I would say Hudson and Mulder are the exception and not the rule.

by RandyKutcherHair on Aug 31, 2006 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rudy ONOZ!

Seanez doing well after sucking for the Red Sox? Surely you jest. ;)

"What you're forgetting is that you need at least three DWIs before you're considered a 'dominant' drunk driver." (limozeen)

by drjayphd on Aug 31, 2006 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No joke

Seanez will do well for the Padres for the rest of this year. He did well last year with them.

by RandyKutcherHair on Aug 31, 2006 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Facetious

I was referring to the fact that he was with the Red Sox in 2003, sucked, got sacked, and was good for whoever he was with afterwards (especially the Pads in 2004). This season, sucks, gets released, and signing with the Padres. Haven't we seen this before? ;)

"What you're forgetting is that you need at least three DWIs before you're considered a 'dominant' drunk driver." (limozeen)

by drjayphd on Sep 1, 2006 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

bend over Towers

and accept your chowdah

by PooNani on Aug 31, 2006 11:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Towers and the Red Sox

At the end of the year, assuming this deal goes down, it would look like this.

Red Sox get:
Loretta
Kotteras

Pads get:
Bard
Meredith
Wells

These teams have taken turns getting fleeced by each other, but in the end it looks like it evens out.

by redsahx on Aug 31, 2006 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

It should be mentioned that it's one (or I'd bet two) months of Wells.

by abbreviatedman on Aug 31, 2006 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is it so simple?

I'd think you'd have to account for the Indians factor, seeing as the Red Sox got Bard in that trade, but my brain hurts enough already. ;)

"What you're forgetting is that you need at least three DWIs before you're considered a 'dominant' drunk driver." (limozeen)

by drjayphd on Aug 31, 2006 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

am i the only

one that thinks Bard's year is flukey. . .he never showed any signs of being a solid bat. . . maybe trying to catch the knuckle ball somehow made something click with his bat

by SoCalSoxFan on Aug 31, 2006 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I'm not saying it was a good trade, but it can't possibly be as bad as it looks now. What years Bard and Meredith are having!

by abbreviatedman on Aug 31, 2006 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

SD's last gasp

Granted, I'm a Sox fan, but I think this is an okay trade for the Padres for the following reason:

I've thought all this year that this is SD's last chance at the playoffs. LA and ARI are about to get very good very quickly, with all their young talent reaching the majors. SD, with their (relatively) small payroll and barren farm system, has essentially no chance of being better next year. So, why not trade your one decent prospect for a good #3 starter when you have the WC lead late in the year? Anything that could give you a 3% better chance of winning a WS is definitely worth it, especially when it may be your last shot for a while.

by abbreviatedman on Aug 31, 2006 12:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I guess it's a gamble

but really Wells would have to be pretty much lights out in his roughly 25-40 innings to even be one win better than anybody else they could throw out there. Obviously in a pennant race that one win can be the difference between the playoff and the offseason, but is it really worth losing 6 years of a guy who is most likely going to be at the very least an average major league catcher?

by neutralluke on Aug 31, 2006 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

at the very least?

at the very least, kottaras becomes nothing at all. look at AJ hinch, who was a much better catching prospect than kottaras. B level prospects often just don't pan out. just because he is the padres' best prospect doesn't mean he is any good.

not that i think wells is a great catch, mind you. i just think it's much ado about very little.

by jpahk on Aug 31, 2006 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Redman for Kottaras

damn....

would have loved the Royals to swing a deal for Kottaras for Mark Redman(the great all star lefty for the Royals) and his new pitch....Kottaras is a steal for the Red Sox

there is no way the Padres lose the West with Redman in their rotation....maybe they could throw Ben Johnson in the deal while they're at it....heck we could throw Paul Bako in, if they gave us Jack Cust

by gashousegang on Aug 31, 2006 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Kottaras

Is anybody going to mention Kottaras? We all know who David Wells is, but what do people think about Kottaras?

From what I've heard and read (ive never seen him personally) he's nothing special behind the plate but he's not so bad that he'll have to move. His biggest strength offensively seems to be his ability to take walks, which has not diminished since he's moved to the high minors. He also has doubles power. He looks to me like he should hit .280/.360/.450 in his prime. I also like the fact that he's a lefthanded hitter, it makes it easy to platoon him because there are plenty of David Ross types that can mash lefthanders.

I think this is a great trade for the Red Sox. It gives them insurance for Varitek next year, and he could be Boston's longterm option. Its a nice trade for San Diego too, Wells COULD be the difference between going to the playoffs and staying home. I have to admit, though, that this deal could look really bad from the Padres perspective a couple years from now if Kottaras fulfills his promise.

by sanchez101 on Aug 31, 2006 9:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wells

Wells may win a game or two more than the replacement starter, but you dont give up on a decent catching prospect for a month of anyone. Kottaras is flawed (hasnt hit since May, below average defender, not really that young, platoon issues), but hes got good patience and HES A CATCHER. It's not like Bard is anything special and Piazza is a year or two from retirement.

by PooNani on Aug 31, 2006 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kottaras

I see him more of a .280/.400/.420 ceiling. He has a really good Isolated Discipline ceiling in my opinion.

by limozeen on Aug 31, 2006 10:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

hmm

50/68 K/BB in 257 ABs and 10/27 in 107 ABs this year as a 23 year old. He has a nice walk rate, but strikes out a good amount. If you take a look at the MLB leaders for OBP this year, youll notice something in common with all the guys whos OBP is over .375. They either A) Hit for a good amount of power (which Kottaras won't) or B) have freakishly good plate discipline (Youkilis, Giles, Hatteberg). I dont see how that kind of line is possible.

Given the numbers hes put up both this year and in the past, i'd say his ceiling is a .275/.350/.380, which is still pretty good for a catcher, or at least a nice bat off the bench. Either way, getting this for Wells is an great steal by the Sox

by PooNani on Aug 31, 2006 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Call it a solid feeling on Kottaras...I see Hatteberg as a good comp. But I understand what you're saying.

by limozeen on Aug 31, 2006 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Youks...

Has 100 Ks in close to 500 ABs, essentially the same k rate that Kottaras has had this year. Its quite possible that Kottaras is just too patient and gets a lot of called strikes just like Youks, his k rate might not be a poor reflection on his contact abilities, but just his overpatience. He's also shown enough IsoP in the minors (60 or so in AA and 90 or so in AAA) to make me believe he'll have more than a 30 IsoP in the majors, especially when you consider his age and that he hasnt fully grown into his power potential.

I think you got the average right, but I'd say a 275/370/450 line during his peak is what you could see, my guess is the low side is 275/360/420 Either way, if his defense is at least close to average, he should be quite a steal for the sox.

by jspearlj1 on Sep 1, 2006 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

K rates

It's not fair to compare K rates in AA and the majors. When Youkilis was 23 and 24 in AA his K/BB rates were 31/18 and 86/40

by PooNani on Sep 1, 2006 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Youks in AAA...

had 78 K in 419 ABs for a 19%K rate:

Kottaras in AA/AAA this year has a 26% K rate, its higher no doubt, but still somewhat comparable. Youks was always older than his competition and never challenged fully because he was a late round pick, even in his time in AAA last year he was 26. I think his MLB k rates are more in line with what you would have gotten had he acsended through the minors like kottaras at age appropriate levels. Not saying kottaras is equal or better than youks, just saying they aren't exactly comparable, but there are some similarities in rates showing that what kottaras is doing is possible in the majors, which is the point I was arguing from the previous post.

by jspearlj1 on Sep 1, 2006 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re

well kottaras' value is tied into his supposed amazing plate discipline, which would be evidenced by great control of the strikezone (K/BB), which is not at those elite levels of Youkilis which allows Youk to get away with not hitting with a ton of power. Theres a BIG difference between 19% and 26% when it comes to K rates also

by PooNani on Sep 1, 2006 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

There's also a big difference in Youks facing AA/AAA pitching at 25/26 and Kottaras facing that competition at 23. I'm not saying that Kottaras' discipline is as good as Youks (almost nobody is) however, Kottaras' k issues are somewhat in line with youks' minor league numbers when you correct for age disparity, not to mention that Kottaras played in more of a pitcher's league in AA than Youks did. There's more in the comparison than straight numbers and that's where the gap closes.

Also, there are plenty of players who have great IsoD numbers but strike out a ton, look at Dunn, Giambi, Manny, etc. I'm not saying Kottaras is as good as these guys, but its more common than you think to have both high walk rates and high k rates at the mlb level.

by jspearlj1 on Sep 1, 2006 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Amen brotha

Dunn is a great example. I know he K's quite a bit, but he also walks over 100 times a year. And getting on base is what will win you ball games. I don't care how many times a guy K's, as long as his k/bb ratio is somewhat close to 1:1 - or he walks an abnormal amount of times(100+ like Dunn).

Batting Avg and K's are two of the most misunderstood stats in the game IMO. A player or team can K a ton, and still be successful. Case in point the RedSox the year they won the WS. Led the league in K's, still had a prolific offense and team. Reds teams have always K'd a lot, last year in particular - had the 3rd best RS in the league.

Batting Avg does not need to be high to be good. See Adam Dunn... as long as you get on base, and not give away outs, you can manufacture plenty of runs - as a player and team.

If Kottaras can maintain his good k/bb ratio, he'll be a solid addition to any club, in whatever role. RedSox did well, IMO, getting Kottaras for a 43 year old southpaw.

by cincyinco on Sep 2, 2006 6:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

flawed

Adam Dunn is not a useful player to compare to Kottaras. Hitters with off the charts power get pitched to carefully. The approach the opposition takes with these sluggers combined with a discerning eye at the plate by the batter will result in walks consistently.

A pitcher with little power is not going to get that same level of help from the pitcher. For such a player to draw walks at a serious clip and post a .400OBP he would need a.) uber plate discipline b.) a great two strike approach c.) ability to foul off pitcher's pitches. Youkilis and Boggs are the model for the low power OBP demons.

Kottaras profiles neither as a Dunn nor a Youkilis. He lacks any uber skill that will translate into enough walks to post a .400 OBP. I think people toss that # around non-chalantly anyway... how many hitters actually post a .400 OBP anyway? I really wouldn't expect more than a .350-.360 out of Kottaras. Maybe peak a tad higher if he gets shielded from southpaws.

Nice haul for David Wells. But the .400OBP (.120 IsoD) mentioned by Limozeen in the parent of this series of replies is VERY unlikely to happen.

by im not new on Sep 6, 2006 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs