Jeff Niemann looking seriously good

by High Heater on Aug 28, 2006 5:49 PM EDT

his line since coming back from injury:

5W 5L 2.88 ERA 13GS 72IP 52H 24R 23ER 6HR 25BB 78K .201 average

i rated this kid the top pitching prospect coming out that year ahead of Verlander(and look at what he's done)

now the lone black mark on this guy is his checkered health issue. what i want to know is everyones opinion on this kid cause he looks like a right handed Hamels but bigger (stands 6'9 260!)

i just dont see enough pub or good pub on this guy and am given credit where its due. if he holds up he could challenge for a top spot within the prospect pitching lists.

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injuries

its sorta like inertia, for the most part, injured players tend to stay injured throughout there career...obviously there are exceptions, people have always been high on him, including me (i remember watching him in the college world series), but he needs to stay healthy to get up in the bailey/hughes category

by nyybaseball99 on Aug 28, 2006 6:36 PM EDT reply actions

id say

his cieling eclipses both Bailey and Hughs but i have my doubts he reaches it.

by High Heater on Aug 28, 2006 6:57 PM EDT reply actions

ceiling

i dont think his ceiling eclipses either...bailey definitely has better stuff and i guess hughes is similar to niemann, hughes probably has better command as well

by nyybaseball99 on Aug 28, 2006 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Not true!

Ceiling is what his potential is. And Niemann's ceiling is as high if not higher than anyone in the minors right now. When Niemann was healthy, his fastball was as good as Bailey's, with a slider as good as Bailey's, a plus curve to go with it, and a change-up that's better than Bailey's. So, Bailey's doesn't have better stuff. IF Niemann reaches his ceiling, he'll be better than Scott Kazmir. I doubt he reaches it, but that's his ceiling. Oh, and he has great control to go with his stuff.

Now, his stuff is not there right now. The fastball is back to touching 97, and sitting from 91-95. There's still a chance it gets back up to touching 99, where he was pre-injury. His slider is back, his curve isn't back totally, but it's close. It's a plus pitch at times, but still a little inconsistent. His change is still not there yet.

by Tyler on Aug 28, 2006 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions

velocity

when did he ever touch 99?, low to mid 90's is what i've read and seen

bailey's fastball and curve i'd think would be rated above niemann's top two pitches but i guess niemann has the 3rd and 4th pitch that bailey doesnt have yet

by nyybaseball99 on Aug 28, 2006 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions

College

the last time he was truly healthy until now. Lets see where his stuff is next year when he's had a full offseason after pitching. He's still getting his arm strength back. He'll end up throwing around 130 IP this year after he finishes the season in Montgomery and in the Arizona Fall League. He'll then get a full offseason to condition and get his arm ready for next year. If his fastball doesn't get any faster, then his ceiling falls below Homer's. Although he'll still have "ace" potential. But at this point, there is still a chance he regains his great stuff. And even if he doesn't, he really hasn't lost that much off his fastball.

During college his fastball sat in the same range Homer Bailey's fastball does now. His slider was rated as the best breaking pitch in the 04' draft. And it was just as good as Homer's curve. Then he had the plus spike curve and a good change.

by Tyler on Aug 28, 2006 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Hughes' stuff

does not match Niemann's, from everything I've heard. But that's probably taboo to say in a forum where Yankees fans are present. I certainly think that Hughes will be a better pitcher than Niemann, all things considered, but if Niemann's stuff is at its best, Hughes can't match his pitches (again, from everything that I've read).

by Brett Perryman on Aug 28, 2006 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions

well

hughes' stuff has never really been rated as A+ stuff, but what really sets him apart is his command

by nyybaseball99 on Aug 28, 2006 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Right

That's exactly what some of us said in responding to you, if you didn't notice.

It's not quite as much his stuff as his command and his intangibles that seem to make him so excellent. And no one's saying he doesn't have good stuff either, just not on the level of what Niemann has shown on the past.

Also, I've seen Hughes throw however many pitches he threw in the futures game, so my comment on his stuff is based on others' opinions, of course.

by Brett Perryman on Aug 28, 2006 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions

well

i was making an assumption about niemann's stuff, i hadnt read a great deal about him since the '04 draft...i just recently looked up some scouting reports on his stuff and was surprised to see what i read because i didnt remember his stuff being as good

by nyybaseball99 on Aug 28, 2006 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Re:

"When Niemann was healthy, his fastball was as good as Bailey's, with a slider as good as Bailey's, a plus curve to go with it, and a change-up that's better than Bailey's. So, Bailey's doesn't have better stuff."

That may all be true, but i've read reports that his stuff isn't what it used to be, and at this point in time his stuff isn't better than Homer Bailey's. He may have been better before he got hurt, but he did get hurt and there's no going back.

by eazyb81 on Aug 28, 2006 9:16 PM EDT reply actions

I wasn't

argueing that at this point he's got better stuff than Bailey. And I wouldn't rank him ahead of Bailey, but his ceiling is higher than Bailey's IF his stuff comes back (which is still possible).

Also, his stuff isn't fully back yet. He may never throw harder than 98 again and his fastball may always sit in the 91-95 range (where it is now) rather than where Bailey's fastball sits (94-97) which is where his fastball used to be. However, his slider is still devestating, and his curve is a plus pitch at times. He still doesn't have the feel completely back for his curve and change. However, sometime in the near future, I expect him to get a feel for those pitches. At that point, he'll have 3 plus pitches and one average pitch which has potential to be a plus pitch.

So while his ceiling is higher IMO, he's not nearly as likey to reach it as Homer. But, with 3 plus pitches and one average pitch, and a fastball that is now reaching 97, to go along with good control, I don't think the gap is that big, even if he doesn't reach his ceiling.

by Tyler on Aug 28, 2006 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Re:

You ended your initial comment saying Bailey doesn't have better stuff, implying that Niemann has better stuff than Bailey right now, which is false.

A lot could happen with Niemann, but you are making a lot of assumptions in your analysis of him. If he stays healthy....if his stuff comes back....if his velocity returns...if his secondary stuff comes back...

I understand the optimism since Tampa fans haven't had a chance to see him pitch much since he was drafted, but I think there are too many questions at this point to say he's a top pitching prospect. Could he be? Sure, but IMO he's not one at this point in time.

by eazyb81 on Aug 29, 2006 7:57 AM EDT up reply actions

??? why

So Adam Miller isn't a top pitching prospect either then?

The health concerns drop him from the elite tier of pitching prospects, but in no way drop him from being a top pitching prospect in baseball.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Aug 29, 2006 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Re:

You're arguing semantics. IMO, elite, top, upper tier, etc are all synonymous. Basically, he's still a legit pitching prospect, but he's not a top tier one right now.

by eazyb81 on Aug 29, 2006 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes

there are a lot of IF's. However, most of those "If's" aren't unlikely. His slider is already back. His curve is becoming far more consistent as the season goes on. His velocity is back up to touching 97. So he's close. His velocity may never return, but I'm totally confident everything else will. And a guy throwing 97 on a downward plane from a 6'9" frame is still really tough to hit.

Also, you're right about that sentence. It was poorly worded, what I meant was ceiling. Niemann has a higher ceiling.

by Tyler on Aug 29, 2006 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions