Garrett Olson vs. Matt Garza

by rp0806 on Aug 14, 2006 1:25 PM EDT Comment 10 comments

Here's an interesting comparison:

Garrett Olson was born in the fall of 1983, and was drafted out of college last year. This is his age 22 season.

His overall stats in rookie, low A, high A, and double AA are:

196 IP, 167 H, 54 ER, 12 HR, 59 BB, 198 K, 2.48 ERA.

3.4 K/BB ratio, 9.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and .6 HRs/9.

Matt Garza was also born in the fall of 1983 and was also drafted out of college last year.

220 IP, 154 H, 60 ER, 14 HR, 53 BB, 243 K.

9.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, .57 HR/9, and a 2.45 ERA.

So Garza's rates are slightly better, and his ERA is basically identical. The big differences are that Olson has been pretty consistent, whereas Garza was just ok last year and totally dominant this year, and that some of Garza's #s are at AAA.

The point isn't that Olson is as good as Garza, but it's interesting that the comparison isn't ridiculous. I think Olson should be taken a bit more seriously as a prospect.

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I should add...

that I have no idea what the park or league factors are like for either player. So I don't know if that changes the equation much.

by rp0806 on Aug 14, 2006 1:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Garza's numbers are considerably better

at least at the same level

http://minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=457796&tm=BowEL&bp=p
http://minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=490063&tm=NwbEL&bp=p

by PooNani on Aug 14, 2006 3:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

also stuff wise they dont compare

afaik Olson sits in the 90-92 range with good life while Garza is mid-high 90s

by PooNani on Aug 14, 2006 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

duh

as I said, no question that Garza is a better prospect. But if a player's stats don't look completely out of place when compared to one of the top 5 pitching prospects in the game, he deserves some respect.

by rp0806 on Aug 14, 2006 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Minor League Stats

But if a player's stats don't look completely out of place when compared to one of the top 5 pitching prospects in the game, he deserves some respect.

Maybe. But pitching to minor league batters is very different than pitching against major league hitting. As Garza demonstrated. The ability to make the jump has a lot more to do with the pitches they throw than their minor league results.

by TT on Aug 14, 2006 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Aug 17, 2006 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

umm

just making sure you guys realize that Olson is also a lefty

by stwright on Aug 14, 2006 4:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Olson

My brother actually talked to olson the other day (college teammates) and he believes he'll get a September callup. It will be interesting to see how he fares against mlb batters.

by chri5 on Aug 15, 2006 8:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs