Upton vs Maybin vs Bruce

by LickSplickidy on Jul 27, 2006 5:33 PM EDT Comment 16 comments

Who has the higher ceiling between Cameron Maybin, Justin Upton and Jay Bruce?

They're all very young outfielders playing in the Midwest League that historically hasn't been too kind to teenage hitters. Maybin and Bruce are both putting up better numbers than the higher ranked Upton who is currently batting .266 (Maybin is leading the league at .328 and Bruce at .311 is #8)...but project these guys two or three years down the road.

Will they all be in the majors within three years? Who's the better player? Does Upton still possess the greatest upside? If the 2005 draft was done over what order would you draft these three players?

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Bruce

While I'm sure that the vast majority of people will say Upton - Maybin - Bruce or even Maybin - Upton - Bruce, I don't know if people really appreciate the year that Bruce is having.

He's got 55 extra base hits and 199 total bases in 363 at bats. An XBH roughly 15% of the time. Almost half of his hits go for extra bases.

He does K a lot (though a lot less often than Maybin), but he also walks a decent amount, and he's shown good speed, though not stellar basestealing skills.

In comparison with Bruces' 55 extra base hits, Maybin has 25 and 121 bases in 247 at bats. An XBH roughly 10% of the time.

Maybin may have speed, and everyone is just ASSUMING he'll grow into his power, but Bruce already has it. And what if Bruce also grows into more power?

Maybin is a stellar fielder and better baserunner, but as a hitter (and if you are talking about a fantasy league) I would take Bruce in a second.

However, I do have to defer to scouts regarding Upton. He was viewed as a once-in-a-decade talent, so I can't completely dismiss that after only one season. But Maybin and Bruce were close enough that this year's performance sways me.

So I'd go with Upton (for now) and then definitely Bruce over Maybin, on whom I think the entire is more bullish than I am.

And McCutchen could also be considered in this conversation since Maybin, McCutchen & Bruce were all drafted in succession in '05

by Galt on Jul 27, 2006 5:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

FYI

Upton is playing a completely new position which might indirectly have an effect on his hitting performance.

by azmorty on Jul 27, 2006 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

let alone

hes had a healthy year (maybins missed a month)

hes in his 2nd year of pro ball while upton and maybin are in their first.

big difference there that none of the Bruce supports seem to mention

by High Heater on Jul 27, 2006 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bah

A. It was not even two months of baseball, not like it makes a giant difference.
B. Bruce also showed more power last year than Maybin has this year.
C. Maybin getting hurt shouldn't help his cause.

by Galt on Jul 27, 2006 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

let's at least look at all the stats

Maybin missed a month, so his gross numbers are all obviously a bit lower than his rates. Bruce has played 97 games, Maybin 67 games (roughly 45% more games played for Bruce and 47% more at bats).

Maybin - .328/.412/.490, 15 doubles, 5 triples, 5 HRs, 35 BB, 80 K, 22/24 SBs

Bruce - .311/.381/.548, 37 doubles, 5 triples, 13 HRs, 39 BB, 83 K, 17/25 SBs

Bruce has more power, Maybin has a higher BA and higher OBP and more speed. But Maybin is no slouch in the power dept. as he'd have about 37 XBHs in the same number of games played as Bruce to go along with nearly twice as many steals.

Both have very high ceilings and while a little stronger in some areas than others, both are pretty well rounded.

I think to fully understand the stats, you have to view it in context of the home park. Bruce's park in Dayton is a better hitter's park than Maybin's in West Michigan. From 2003-2005, here are the "weighted park factors" for each from Baseball Think Factory:

Dayton - Runs 1.05, Hits 0.98, Doubles 0.84, Home Runs 1.04
West Michigan - Runs 0.95, Hits 0.97, Doubles 0.96, Home Runs 0.75

I'd give the slight edge to Maybin at this point. He's a better defender (per reports), a better baserunner, and gets on base more frequently. Bruce has better power. But it's really kind of nitpicking at this point.

by dj on Jul 27, 2006 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybin v Bruce

Thanks for the post.

From the looks of those numbers it appears that Bruce has the edge in raw power and has a better eye at avoiding the K...and Maybin has the edge in "seemingly" every other category.

I'd go with Maybin on this one...at least at this point. He was impressive with his speed in the Futures Game. He has a great baseball frame too.

by LickSplickidy on Jul 27, 2006 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jay Bruce home/road splits

Jay has been a better hitter on the road.

Home - .301/.366/.503
Road - .322/.397/.594

So I dont think his home park has much to do with any of his numbers, as he has been a much better hitter on the road than he has at home. Also has 3 more HR on the road.

Maybin on the other hand is a completely different hitter at home and on the road.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Jul 27, 2006 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

home/road

What it means is that on average, Bruce has played in friendly parks for hitting. If his home numbers are worse than his road, they'd be even worse if he played for West Michigan.

by dj on Jul 28, 2006 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

your first question is who has the highest ceiling. that's easy, upton in a cakewalk. there must be a reason everybody was comparing his tools to junior griffey and bo jackson when he was drafted.

i love me some jay bruce, though. i'd definitely rather have him than maybin, who is a damn good prospect himself. i don't think i can bump him ahead of upton yet because scouting reports are so much more meaningful than stats at such a low level of competition... but if bruce goes to (say) AA next year and rakes, i'd be willing to reconsider.

by jpahk on Jul 27, 2006 6:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Boss

Everyday of the week..

by cincyinco on Jul 27, 2006 6:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

cool

an open minded cincy fan :)

by High Heater on Jul 27, 2006 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

haha

I was being homerish for laughs.. but truth be told I like Maybin quite a bit. Before the draft, I was really hoping the Reds would land him. his idol? Ken Griffey Jr. There were plenty of articles saying he'd love to be drafted by the Reds. Too bad it didn't happen.

But.. Bruce wasn't a bad pick either. Any organization would be lucky to have either of these guys right now.

by cincyinco on Jul 29, 2006 4:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

I'd go with tabata

yours truly,

Yankee fans

by Team Moneyball on Jul 27, 2006 6:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jay went 4-5 with 2 doubles today....

Well actually yesterday/today. The Dragons game yesterday was suspended. They finished it today and Jay finished 4-5 with 2 doubles and 3 RBI.

He is now hitting .318 with 39 doubles and 64 RBI. His stolen base percentage has improved greatly in the past month. At one point earlier in the year he was right around 50% and now he is at 68%. Would like to see it be a little better, but its heading in the right direction.

As for Maybin, he is a very good prospect. My question is, how many of those infield hits he gets all the time will he get as he moves up? Not as many I bet. Maybin has some really good tools, but I have heard he has a ton of infeild hits. You can do that in A ball and heck maybe even AA, but that doesnt transfer into the majors. I would rank Maybin currently 3rd behind Upton then Bruce. Of course, people are going to say I am biased, but looking at the numbers Jay has put up, it doesnt make sense in my mind that Maybin can be higher than him right now.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Jul 27, 2006 9:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

infield hits

He's not developed physically yet.

Once he develops into a better baseball player AND hits the weights, those infield hits won't be in the infield anymore.

Anyways, the whole point of this thread is projecting towards the future.

While Bruce is the most polished of the group, Maybin has incredible upside including a huge speed advantage and a better walk rate already, while Upton is the scouts dream and has every tool imaginable.

Right now, they are all in low-A ball so it's impossible to give a 1-2-3 order.

If I had to give an order, it would be Upton-Maybin-Bruce in terms of ceiling and Bruce-Maybin-Upton in terms of meeting their perceived ceiling.

There's just not enough you can say about how good all of these guys are at their age.

To sit and banter about which is better is just a matter of personal preference.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Jul 27, 2006 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well said

I agree mostly, I know that no matter what order you put them in, you probably cant be that wrong in the end. I really see all 3 of them contributing big dividends for their major league clubs over the next 15 years.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Jul 27, 2006 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs