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Your Top Fifty Prospects Lists

Seems everyone is contributing to the community top 50, and that is great.  It seems like everyone pretty much has their own 50 guys in mind, and the format for the community list can leave out particular guys that we may be higher on than other people (which is really the beauty of doing your own list.  I figure I'd get the ball rollingand post mine, so you guys can bang on me for whatever reason.  Keep in mind though, if you criticize, then feel free to post your own.

As far as I go, I watch a lot of baseball, and go to quite a few Cal league games, and this is reflected in my list.  I will tend to go off of my own judgement from seeing a guy in person, rather than watching scouting film or statistical analysis.  

I am more of a "tools" guy than SABR guy, but I do use stats as a large part of my "analysis", but I don't get into the BP stats such as Vorp, Pecota and all that, typical box score stats are fine w/ me.  

So, here's my list, and some pics of a few of the guys that I took (another hobby).  This is based on LONG TERM VALUE, and the level the player is currently at has little, if any effect on where they are ranked (see Carlos Gonzalez ahead of Carlos Quentin).  Yes, I know i have left off some very good players, and I do have reason for that (IT'S MY LIST!!).  Some guys have been called up since I started compiling the list, so certain guys may/may not be on the list for that reason.

With all those caveats or whatever, here it is, with brief comments. . . .
1    Alex Gordon    Upside is as high as high or higher than the rest, but his chances or reaching his ceiling seem to be greater
2    Delmon Young    Silver medalist in the group of three guys (maybe four) that all could claim the top spot.  Only drawback is the makeup
3    Howie Kendrick    When will the hit machine get his chance?  He needs to play every day, not just against lefties.

4    Justin Upton    Upside is huge, and would/could claim top spot if he does what everyone thinks he should be doing in A ball.
5    Brandon Wood    Can't ignore the last year and a halfs numbers.  Are the strikeouts a byproduct of increased PD putting him in pitchers counts?
6    Stephen Drew    Complete package for a shortstop, offensive ceiling isn't as huge as #5's, but can hit like his brother
7    Billy Butler    Advanced approach at the plate will get him to KC soon, already better than most of the guys in KC now, defense improved, but still sloppy
8    Lastings Milledge    One of the most exciting guys in the minors, one more injury to Floyd could have him in LF to stay in late 06
9    Homer Bailey    Flashed some of the most electric stuff at the Futures Game, pretty much just throwing fastballs  (is he the top pitching prospect though?)
10    Andy Marte    Demonstrated raw power winning the AA HR contest. . . Should be in Cleveland sooner rather than later.
11    Philip Hughes    Some (mainly Yankee fans) may say he's the best pitching prospect.  Looked like was pressing and overthrowing at Futures.  Great stuff/makeup
12    Jose Tabata    Don't like low A guys this high usually, but this kid impresses in all facets of the game. . . Maybe most impressive of the Futures bunch.(surprisingly)
13    Ian Stewart    Not ready to give up on him just yet.  Was one of the top five in the Cal last year in a loaded crop.  Impresses more on the field than the stat sheet.
14    Carlos Gonzalez    Has all the tools in the shed, and the game seems easy for him, but maybe too easy.  Seems to go through the motions at times.
15    Carlos Quentin    Doesn't have the flash of some of the other top OF's, but steady and consistent Dback should be in AZ to stay shortly.
16    Jay Bruce    One of the bigger movers on the list, can bring a lot to the table.  Could be the next solid OF to be traded out of Cincy(?)
17    Troy Tulowitzki    Showed off his glove and range in Pittsburgh, should unleash the rest of his package in Colorado some time next year
18    Nick Adenhart    At the beginning of the season his upside rivaled that of Weaver's, He may have passed him despite Weaver's hot start in Anaheim. . Great poise on the hill too
19    Scott Elbert    Lefthanded version of Danny Cabrera?  Well, not quite that bad, expect walks numbers to decrease as he figures out nobody can hit him
20    Jason Hirsch    Similar mannerisms to SD giant Chris Young, but Hirsch brings an explosive fastball/slider combo, and developing change.
21    Andy Laroche    Fire Plug third basemen generates huge power from strong foundation at the plate.  If LA is in another division (and not in a race) he'd probably be there already
22    Yovanny Gallardo    The numbers from the past year and a half  are a lot more impressive than the way he looked in the Futures Game, where his stuff looked Normal
23    Chris Young    Hopefully AZ can develop some pitching (and it looks like they are), b/c their OF is loaded w/ talent.  This kids tools and talent are almost ready for the big time
24    Daric Barton    Whoever you wanna compare him too, everyone agrees he'll hit.  I believe the power will come too. . . Recent injury could be a concern
25    Matt Garza    Another great year for the former Bulldog. . . Twins rotation should be set for the next ten years
26    Humberto Sanchez    Aaron Neville lookalike had some of the dirtier stuff at the Futures.  Is probably ready now, but may end up traded.
27    Cameron Maybin    This is WAY too low,He should be around 14 or so, and I will move him when the guys at ESPN stop calling him Marvin
28    Joel Guzman    Dodgers gave him the Angels treatment, bringing him up to the show, switching positions and was basically a pinch hitter. .. Stock is dropping but has great tools
29    Hunter Pence    The most non respected OF in the minors? His Gabe Kapler esque swing keeps puttin up the big numbers
30    Josh Fields    Along with Jay Bruce, one of the bigger movers, nice breakout year for ChiSox but will he or Crede man the hot corner for the next few years
31    Jarrod Saltalamacchia    Probably wishes he could wipe the slate clean on this season, but is still probably the top catching prospect out there, this season is a fluke
32    Jeff Mathis    SEE ABOVE---is way better than he showed in Anaheim, and probably not as good as he's done in AAA, but is steady in all facets of the game
33    Adam Jones    Converted infielder may be rushed by promotion, but it looks like CF is his unless Sea brass handles him like the Angels handled their youngens
34    Jeff Clement    Maybe Daric Barton without the power concerns?  Maybe not an MLB catcher, but "have bat will travel"
35    Trevor Crowe    Big start in A ball has him passing up other Tribe OF's on depth charts
36    Jacoby Ellsbury    His development and quick rise will make it easier for the Sox to let Trot walk at the end of the year, but who will play RF?
37    Ryan Braun    Has been hitting in the public eye since he stepped on the field as a SS in Miami, Millwaukee is looking good for the next ten years
38    Ryan Shealy    Just trade him already!!!  Could be a Travis Hafner type with his big bat getting a chance as a late twenties basher
39    Joey Votto    Huge power from the left side and it looks like 1b is his as Hatteburg's name is ready to be erased from the starting lineup
40    Adam Loewen    Live armed Canadian Lefty hopes to flash back to WBC form in second stint in Baltimore.  Should be there to stay.
41    Jose Arredondo    Kid can bring it as hard as anyone, whether he stays an SP or goes to pen depneds on developing split, which looks more like a cutter
42    Andrew McCutcheon    Pitt fans may have to wait a few more years, but this toolsy kid will finally be the long term answer to the CF issues they are having
43    Reid Brignac    A Brandon Wood (lite) type of breakout in the Cal makes Upton's move to third an easier decision, should be next to Upton by 2008
44    Neil Walker    Huge upside for this guy, maybe a move from behind the dish will let us see what he can do for a full, healthy season
45    Evan Longoria    Hot pro debut.  If he continues his hot hitting, he will be a fast riser, through the charts, and through the system.
46    Dustin McGowan    An average start at the wrong time might have prevented him from joining Tor's rotation, has electric stuff if he can harness it
47    Kurt Suzuki    Former Fullerton backstop will bring his A's game to the table when Kendall's contract is off the books.
48    Felix Pie    All the tools you look for in a prospect, but needs to begin translating that to performance to avoid Corey Patterson comps (the bad ones)
49    Jake McGee    Live armed lefty is putting up huge K numbers along with high walks, but has huge upside.  Tampa is finally developing some arms!!
50    James Loney    Seems he gets knocked for lack of power more than Barton, but if you outhig Kendrick, you gotta fit on this list somewhere









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Curious...
about Dukes' exclusion.

Not going to nit pick top 50 placement for Dukes, but just looking at someone who is at a similar position and close to the same age, so what made you pick Pie over Dukes?

Dukes is as toolsy as they come, and he's performing well in AAA. And he's only 8 months older.

Was it just a makeup exclusion?

by beastball on Jul 17, 2006 9:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Just the Makeup
big knock for me, I had him in before editing, hard to keep it at fifty, about ten more guys i wanted to get in there

by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 17, 2006 10:05 PM EDT reply actions  

Rasmus
No Colby Rasmus on your list?   I think he definitly deserves to be somewhere in the Top 50.

by DJ87 on Jul 17, 2006 10:06 PM EDT reply actions  

hahahaha
that facial hair on adenhart bumps him up 100 notches for me

by PooNani on Jul 17, 2006 10:08 PM EDT reply actions  

New Intimidating look??
was surprised by it too.  I say he goes for the Weaveresque Mullet when he's bumped to double A

by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 17, 2006 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rod the Bod
It worked for Rod Beck.
Waiting for Travis Buck

by Furious George on Jul 18, 2006 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Green Apples vs Red Apples
not even apples vs oranges. . . haven't seen much of him, and like I prefaced, i go more on what i see than what i read/hear.

I don't mind defending my list, but was trying to get more people to come up with their own.

by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 17, 2006 10:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Nice list
Thanx for the list, SoCal.  Nice to have mini-write-ups for each player, and some humor and pics mixed in!

Nice to see some love for Fields, who wasnt getting much on the Community diary, and for Longoria.  

Of course, everyone will have their disagreements w it.  My biggest issue would be w Shealy.  I would say he has a chance to be Dan Johnson, but not Hafner.  If you really believe in him, I would say you could slide him in to the back end of a Top 100.  Maybe you know something I dont.

Also, McGowan has pitched more than 50 MLB IP, and also has been called up, so to me he doesnt belong.  The other mid-season lists so far also made the same mistake.

by rhd on Jul 17, 2006 10:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Shealy
Imagine this:  Shealy gets traded to Baltimore along with Chaz Roe for Javy Lopez and  LaTroy Hawkins (and a lot of cash).  

Next year Shealy hits 290, with about a 385 OBP and hits 30 HR's (has a similar year to Mike Napoli so far) and edges out Delmon Young for Rookie Of The Year in the AL.  Would knowledgable baseball fans be that shocked?  Probably not, because Shealy has pretty much mashed since turning pro.

 Yes, I have him higher than anyone else will have him, but I think he will hit if/when he gets the chance, and wouldn't be COMPLETELY SHOCKED if that scenario rings true.

I knew somebody would say something about Shealy!!!  Might be why i ranked him that hi, I'm so friggin controversial, but he's a guy I'd want on my team.

Didn't even look at McGowan's numbers, but I love his stuff, and the kid gets little, if no love.  I put him there in a similar placement as Shealy, he deserves some props and I would actually like his deep pitching arsenal ahead of a lot of higher praised pitchers.

And a note on Gallardo, I wasn't impressed w/ him at the Futures at all, and was "pressured" into placing him where I did. . . I actually had him higher when I started the list and based on film, and lowered him after the Futures and may not have lowered him enough.

by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 17, 2006 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shealy called up yesterday
to sit on the bench for the Rockies.
Policeman: Sir, are you classified as human? Korben Dallas: Ah, negative. I am a meat popsicle.

by finman on Jul 18, 2006 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

pelfrey?
I think pelfrey needs to be on this list somewhere. I also think you rank Tabata a little high. I think justin upton is the exception to the rule, but i really disagree with A Ball propects being up in the tops, unless its a pitcher.

by JD Sussman on Jul 17, 2006 11:03 PM EDT reply actions  

left Pelfrey off
b/c it seems like he's in NY to stay, would have been among Bailey and Hughes though  for the top pitching prospect. . . Tabata impressed me more than anyone at the Futures Game. . . I disagree with the pitchers being at the top of the list, unless it's like a WEAVER or PRIOR coming out of college.  Too many two pitch pitchers have dominated in A ball because A ball hitters haven't seen a great change up.

by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 17, 2006 11:14 PM EDT reply actions  

intresting logic
I'm not being sarcastic at all here. Its just a thought. It the hitters in A Ball haven't seen an decent change up, then they shouldn't be up thier either for lest just say lack of competion. Or maybe being ahead of the learning curve? But pitchers with two plus(or even considered plus for that level) pitches have been very sucessful, and maybe have been with ONE.
IE
Tom Glavine(Change)
Marino Rivera( Cutter)(i consider it one + pitch)
Jeff Nelson(Slider)
Barry Zito(Curve)
Tim Hudson(Sinker)

just to raddle of a few from the top of my head which fried in the sun. Feel free to agrue with these guys but its just a point. MLB players have been some what successful with 1 pitch.

by JD Sussman on Jul 17, 2006 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

All of them
have excellant control, or at least they did when they were at their peak (more Nelson than any of them).  Glavine and Zito at times have walk numbers that aren't too impressive, but they know how to pitch and pitch around guys a lot.  Look at Zito's overall numbers, then look at them against Boston, NY and the elite offenses, a lot more walks.  

In certain situations, like the guys I mentioned and guys like Bailey, Hughes and the elite (the guys that were ranked hi while still in A ball) have what I refer to as the "pedigree", were drafted hi, and expected to dominate in A ball and did, those guys I have no issues with, but there are a LOT of guys that have been GREAT in A ball with a GREAT changeup.  These guys don't transition to AA and eventually flame out.

Back to the top of your post, think about this, (don't know if you played ball or not) How many High School pitchers throw a Good or even passable change up, most HS pitchers are fastball/Curve guys or FB/Slider.  

You'll also see a lot of good (but not great) college pitchers have a lot of success in A ball because they have learned how to pitch in college, but these guys don't always transition to AA ball.  You hear about the AA transition quite a bit, and I'm a firm believer in it (i think most are).  A lot of pitchers can't make the adjustment b/c of lack of stuff or lack of secondary pitches, just like hitters don't adjust to AA b/c of poor contact skills or failure to adjust to secondary pitches.

Kind of all over the place, but I think you get the point.

by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 18, 2006 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pelfrey....
I was just thinking about Pelfrey. He might be one of those rare prospects who's hype has actually died down some since getting the call to the show. There are probably valid reasons for that, but this is NY we're talking about here.  I guess a 12 game lead can do wonders when dealing with potential phenoms...

Also, his slider/slurve looked a lot better to me than what people described last week. His command was way out of whack overall, but that's to be expected in a first start. Uggla praised his breaking stuff, and both he and Ramirez looked terrible when he broke off a good one. He does have two different fastballs as well, and if he can pound the bottom of the zone with a 97 MPH sinker he should be ok. That is one pitch that you just can't teach. I was hoping that Pedro and Guy Conti would have him throwing the change-up of death by now, but you can count the amount of pitchers in history who could throw that pitch like that on two hands..

by MetfanBren on Jul 17, 2006 11:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Pelfrey
is a stud, and like I said, would be probably top ten overall, and probably top pitcher for me if I included him.  

I think he's kind of under the radar, if that's possible for arguably the top pitching prospect, is that he rose sooo fast.  Plus he doesn't have the minor league stats that some of the other guys has because he's moved up so fast, so there isn't a lot of stats to analyze (due to sample size)

by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 18, 2006 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

On that note...
I'm not sure he's up for good anyway though, even if the best case scenario does come about. If it does he'll almost definitely get up over 200 innings in his first pro season, and that's obviously risky. The fans may not like it, but his future should be more important than any "win now," mentality. Putting him in the pen come September might be a good way for him to contribute without being abused. Just a thought though...

by MetfanBren on Jul 18, 2006 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

mental
I think that being in the pen is great for pitchers mental state. When you throw a young pitcher in the pen you are telling them they belong and allowing them to learn at the MLB level without throwing them directly into the fire. Now i know Pelfrey and Hughes are differnt because they are playing in New York and that is always the fire. But i think the expectations right of the bat are less when you start your stint in the pen. I think the Twins are the bestexample of this because it has seemed to work well with Lireano and Santana. Seems like they have a good pitching model in place for their system.

by JD Sussman on Jul 18, 2006 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

I like easing them into the rotation too
and the Twins are a as good as any w/ developing and handling pitching.  Santana was for different reasons as Liriano, being a Rule five guy he wasn't going to/nor was he ready to be in the rotation, but I like having young arms in the pen to get a taste and ease into the rotation.  DON'T like it when they try to ease position guys though, they need their AB's (See the Angels and how they messed virtually all the guys they brought up this year)

With the lead the Mets have, I would expect Pelfrey to stay in the rotation, but all the guys will get plenty of rest.  Should be interesting how they handle that and maintain their sharpness, yet don't blow out the bullpen.

by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 18, 2006 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Very good list; questions on a few exclusions!
Hello SoCalSoxFan,

Very good list! :-)

I noticed you didn't include either Adam Miller or Chuck Lofgren, two that might merit some consideration for your list.  I was just wondering what your reasons were for leaving them off.  

With Miller, is it concern over the elbow, just not impressed with his stats this year, or are you just not as confident in his ability to be a front-of-the-rotation starter in the future?

As for Lofgren, do you just want to see him at AA first before considering him for your list?

Just curious. :-)

By the way, one minor correction on Marte:  he won the AAA HR-hitting contest, not AA.  That was probably just an oversight. :-)

Again, a very good list - nice work on it!

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jul 18, 2006 1:55 AM EDT reply actions  

miller and lofgren
Miller's elbow is a concern, and actually both of them were right outside the top 50.  I encourage everyone to put a list together, the top 15-20 is pretty easy, but the second half is hard b/c you don't wanna leave out certain guys, and there are a lot of quality guys.

by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 18, 2006 4:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the reply! :-)
Hello SoCalSoxFan,

Thanks for the reply - greatly appreciated!

I can understand the concern over the elbow, though it's good to know it's not bothering him or holding him back at this point (knock on wood that continues. :-)

It's nice to know they were considered for your Top 50.  If I have the chance, I may try to construct my own Top 50, but I have some other things going on, so I'm not sure if I will get to it or not, but I'll try.

Again, thanks for your list. :-)

Take care and have a great weekend!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jul 22, 2006 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Here's mine
  1.  Delmon Young, of, Devil Rays
  2.  Alex Gordon, 3b, Royals
  3.  Brandon Wood, ss, Angels
  4.  Cameron Maybin, of, Tigers
  5.  Justin Upton, of, Diamondbacks
  6.  Howie Kendrick, 2b, Angels
  7.  Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds
  8.  Philip Hughes, rhp, Yankees
  9.  Troy Tulowitzki, ss, Rockies
  10. Lastings Milledge, of, Mets
  11. Andy LaRoche, 3b, Dodgers
  12. Andy Marte, 3b, Indians
  13. Scott Elbert, lhp, Dodgers
  14. Billy Butler, 3b/of, Royals
  15. Chris Young, of, Diamondbacks
  16. Carlos Quentin, of, Diamondbacks
  17. Carlos Gonzalez, of, Diamondbacks
  18. Jose Tabata, of, Yankees
  19. Yovani Gallardo, rhp, Brewers
  20. Jay Bruce, of, Reds
  21. Jeff Clement, c, Mariners
  22. Jeff Niemann, rhp, Devil Rays
  23. Reid Brignac, ss, Devil Rays
  24. Joel Guzman, 3b/of, Dodgers
  25. Adam Miller, rhp, Indians
  26. Jason Hirsh, rhp, Astros
  27. Josh Fields, 3b, White Sox
  28. Nick Adenhart, rhp, Angels
  29. Humberto Sanchez, rhp, Tigers
  30. Elijah Dukes, of, Devil Rays
  31. Joey Votto, 1b, Reds
  32. Andrew Miller, lhp, Tigers
  33. Ian Stewart, 3b, Rockies
  34. Fernando Martinez, of, Mets
  35. Matt Garza, rhp, Twins
  36. Erick Aybar, ss, Angels
  37. Daric Barton, 1b, Athletics
  38. Edinson Volquez, rhp, Rangers
  39. Felix Pie, of, Cubs
  40. Eric Hurley, rhp, Rangers
  41. Ryan Braun, 3b, Brewers
  42. Troy Patton, lhp, Astros
  43. Neil Walker, c, Pirates
  44. Colby Rasmus, of, Cardinals
  45. Ricky Romero, lhp, Blue Jays
  46. Mark Rogers, rhp, Brewers
  47. Jacob McGee, lhp, Devil Rays
  48. Sean Gallagher, rhp, Cubs
  49. Jeff Mathis, c, Angels
  50. Ubaldo Jimenez, rhp, Rockies

by ddawgs28 on Jul 18, 2006 7:31 AM EDT reply actions  

Something to note
I consider Andrew Miller a prospect for some reason, so don't harp on me for that. :-)

by ddawgs28 on Jul 18, 2006 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

think
both he and hochevar would be top 15-20 when they both sign

by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 18, 2006 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

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