Your Top Fifty Prospects Lists
Seems everyone is contributing to the community top 50, and that is great. It seems like everyone pretty much has their own 50 guys in mind, and the format for the community list can leave out particular guys that we may be higher on than other people (which is really the beauty of doing your own list. I figure I'd get the ball rollingand post mine, so you guys can bang on me for whatever reason. Keep in mind though, if you criticize, then feel free to post your own.
As far as I go, I watch a lot of baseball, and go to quite a few Cal league games, and this is reflected in my list. I will tend to go off of my own judgement from seeing a guy in person, rather than watching scouting film or statistical analysis.
I am more of a "tools" guy than SABR guy, but I do use stats as a large part of my "analysis", but I don't get into the BP stats such as Vorp, Pecota and all that, typical box score stats are fine w/ me.
So, here's my list, and some pics of a few of the guys that I took (another hobby). This is based on LONG TERM VALUE, and the level the player is currently at has little, if any effect on where they are ranked (see Carlos Gonzalez ahead of Carlos Quentin). Yes, I know i have left off some very good players, and I do have reason for that (IT'S MY LIST!!). Some guys have been called up since I started compiling the list, so certain guys may/may not be on the list for that reason.
With all those caveats or whatever, here it is, with brief comments. . . .
1 Alex Gordon Upside is as high as high or higher than the rest, but his chances or reaching his ceiling seem to be greater
2 Delmon Young Silver medalist in the group of three guys (maybe four) that all could claim the top spot. Only drawback is the makeup
3 Howie Kendrick When will the hit machine get his chance? He needs to play every day, not just against lefties.
4 Justin Upton Upside is huge, and would/could claim top spot if he does what everyone thinks he should be doing in A ball.
5 Brandon Wood Can't ignore the last year and a halfs numbers. Are the strikeouts a byproduct of increased PD putting him in pitchers counts?
6 Stephen Drew Complete package for a shortstop, offensive ceiling isn't as huge as #5's, but can hit like his brother
7 Billy Butler Advanced approach at the plate will get him to KC soon, already better than most of the guys in KC now, defense improved, but still sloppy
8 Lastings Milledge One of the most exciting guys in the minors, one more injury to Floyd could have him in LF to stay in late 06
9 Homer Bailey Flashed some of the most electric stuff at the Futures Game, pretty much just throwing fastballs (is he the top pitching prospect though?)
10 Andy Marte Demonstrated raw power winning the AA HR contest. . . Should be in Cleveland sooner rather than later.
11 Philip Hughes Some (mainly Yankee fans) may say he's the best pitching prospect. Looked like was pressing and overthrowing at Futures. Great stuff/makeup
12 Jose Tabata Don't like low A guys this high usually, but this kid impresses in all facets of the game. . . Maybe most impressive of the Futures bunch.(surprisingly)
13 Ian Stewart Not ready to give up on him just yet. Was one of the top five in the Cal last year in a loaded crop. Impresses more on the field than the stat sheet.
14 Carlos Gonzalez Has all the tools in the shed, and the game seems easy for him, but maybe too easy. Seems to go through the motions at times.
15 Carlos Quentin Doesn't have the flash of some of the other top OF's, but steady and consistent Dback should be in AZ to stay shortly.
16 Jay Bruce One of the bigger movers on the list, can bring a lot to the table. Could be the next solid OF to be traded out of Cincy(?)
17 Troy Tulowitzki Showed off his glove and range in Pittsburgh, should unleash the rest of his package in Colorado some time next year
18 Nick Adenhart At the beginning of the season his upside rivaled that of Weaver's, He may have passed him despite Weaver's hot start in Anaheim. . Great poise on the hill too
19 Scott Elbert Lefthanded version of Danny Cabrera? Well, not quite that bad, expect walks numbers to decrease as he figures out nobody can hit him
20 Jason Hirsch Similar mannerisms to SD giant Chris Young, but Hirsch brings an explosive fastball/slider combo, and developing change.
21 Andy Laroche Fire Plug third basemen generates huge power from strong foundation at the plate. If LA is in another division (and not in a race) he'd probably be there already
22 Yovanny Gallardo The numbers from the past year and a half are a lot more impressive than the way he looked in the Futures Game, where his stuff looked Normal
23 Chris Young Hopefully AZ can develop some pitching (and it looks like they are), b/c their OF is loaded w/ talent. This kids tools and talent are almost ready for the big time
24 Daric Barton Whoever you wanna compare him too, everyone agrees he'll hit. I believe the power will come too. . . Recent injury could be a concern
25 Matt Garza Another great year for the former Bulldog. . . Twins rotation should be set for the next ten years
26 Humberto Sanchez Aaron Neville lookalike had some of the dirtier stuff at the Futures. Is probably ready now, but may end up traded.
27 Cameron Maybin This is WAY too low,He should be around 14 or so, and I will move him when the guys at ESPN stop calling him Marvin
28 Joel Guzman Dodgers gave him the Angels treatment, bringing him up to the show, switching positions and was basically a pinch hitter. .. Stock is dropping but has great tools
29 Hunter Pence The most non respected OF in the minors? His Gabe Kapler esque swing keeps puttin up the big numbers
30 Josh Fields Along with Jay Bruce, one of the bigger movers, nice breakout year for ChiSox but will he or Crede man the hot corner for the next few years
31 Jarrod Saltalamacchia Probably wishes he could wipe the slate clean on this season, but is still probably the top catching prospect out there, this season is a fluke
32 Jeff Mathis SEE ABOVE---is way better than he showed in Anaheim, and probably not as good as he's done in AAA, but is steady in all facets of the game
33 Adam Jones Converted infielder may be rushed by promotion, but it looks like CF is his unless Sea brass handles him like the Angels handled their youngens
34 Jeff Clement Maybe Daric Barton without the power concerns? Maybe not an MLB catcher, but "have bat will travel"
35 Trevor Crowe Big start in A ball has him passing up other Tribe OF's on depth charts
36 Jacoby Ellsbury His development and quick rise will make it easier for the Sox to let Trot walk at the end of the year, but who will play RF?
37 Ryan Braun Has been hitting in the public eye since he stepped on the field as a SS in Miami, Millwaukee is looking good for the next ten years
38 Ryan Shealy Just trade him already!!! Could be a Travis Hafner type with his big bat getting a chance as a late twenties basher
39 Joey Votto Huge power from the left side and it looks like 1b is his as Hatteburg's name is ready to be erased from the starting lineup
40 Adam Loewen Live armed Canadian Lefty hopes to flash back to WBC form in second stint in Baltimore. Should be there to stay.
41 Jose Arredondo Kid can bring it as hard as anyone, whether he stays an SP or goes to pen depneds on developing split, which looks more like a cutter
42 Andrew McCutcheon Pitt fans may have to wait a few more years, but this toolsy kid will finally be the long term answer to the CF issues they are having
43 Reid Brignac A Brandon Wood (lite) type of breakout in the Cal makes Upton's move to third an easier decision, should be next to Upton by 2008
44 Neil Walker Huge upside for this guy, maybe a move from behind the dish will let us see what he can do for a full, healthy season
45 Evan Longoria Hot pro debut. If he continues his hot hitting, he will be a fast riser, through the charts, and through the system.
46 Dustin McGowan An average start at the wrong time might have prevented him from joining Tor's rotation, has electric stuff if he can harness it
47 Kurt Suzuki Former Fullerton backstop will bring his A's game to the table when Kendall's contract is off the books.
48 Felix Pie All the tools you look for in a prospect, but needs to begin translating that to performance to avoid Corey Patterson comps (the bad ones)
49 Jake McGee Live armed lefty is putting up huge K numbers along with high walks, but has huge upside. Tampa is finally developing some arms!!
50 James Loney Seems he gets knocked for lack of power more than Barton, but if you outhig Kendrick, you gotta fit on this list somewhere









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Curious...
Not going to nit pick top 50 placement for Dukes, but just looking at someone who is at a similar position and close to the same age, so what made you pick Pie over Dukes?
Dukes is as toolsy as they come, and he's performing well in AAA. And he's only 8 months older.
Was it just a makeup exclusion?
Just the Makeup
hahahaha
by PooNani on Jul 17, 2006 10:08 PM EDT reply actions
New Intimidating look??
by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 17, 2006 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Rod the Bod
by Furious George on Jul 18, 2006 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Green Apples vs Red Apples
I don't mind defending my list, but was trying to get more people to come up with their own.
Nice list
Nice to see some love for Fields, who wasnt getting much on the Community diary, and for Longoria.
Of course, everyone will have their disagreements w it. My biggest issue would be w Shealy. I would say he has a chance to be Dan Johnson, but not Hafner. If you really believe in him, I would say you could slide him in to the back end of a Top 100. Maybe you know something I dont.
Also, McGowan has pitched more than 50 MLB IP, and also has been called up, so to me he doesnt belong. The other mid-season lists so far also made the same mistake.
Shealy
Next year Shealy hits 290, with about a 385 OBP and hits 30 HR's (has a similar year to Mike Napoli so far) and edges out Delmon Young for Rookie Of The Year in the AL. Would knowledgable baseball fans be that shocked? Probably not, because Shealy has pretty much mashed since turning pro.
Yes, I have him higher than anyone else will have him, but I think he will hit if/when he gets the chance, and wouldn't be COMPLETELY SHOCKED if that scenario rings true.
I knew somebody would say something about Shealy!!! Might be why i ranked him that hi, I'm so friggin controversial, but he's a guy I'd want on my team.
Didn't even look at McGowan's numbers, but I love his stuff, and the kid gets little, if no love. I put him there in a similar placement as Shealy, he deserves some props and I would actually like his deep pitching arsenal ahead of a lot of higher praised pitchers.
And a note on Gallardo, I wasn't impressed w/ him at the Futures at all, and was "pressured" into placing him where I did. . . I actually had him higher when I started the list and based on film, and lowered him after the Futures and may not have lowered him enough.
by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 17, 2006 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Shealy called up yesterday
pelfrey?
left Pelfrey off
intresting logic
IE
Tom Glavine(Change)
Marino Rivera( Cutter)(i consider it one + pitch)
Jeff Nelson(Slider)
Barry Zito(Curve)
Tim Hudson(Sinker)
just to raddle of a few from the top of my head which fried in the sun. Feel free to agrue with these guys but its just a point. MLB players have been some what successful with 1 pitch.
All of them
In certain situations, like the guys I mentioned and guys like Bailey, Hughes and the elite (the guys that were ranked hi while still in A ball) have what I refer to as the "pedigree", were drafted hi, and expected to dominate in A ball and did, those guys I have no issues with, but there are a LOT of guys that have been GREAT in A ball with a GREAT changeup. These guys don't transition to AA and eventually flame out.
Back to the top of your post, think about this, (don't know if you played ball or not) How many High School pitchers throw a Good or even passable change up, most HS pitchers are fastball/Curve guys or FB/Slider.
You'll also see a lot of good (but not great) college pitchers have a lot of success in A ball because they have learned how to pitch in college, but these guys don't always transition to AA ball. You hear about the AA transition quite a bit, and I'm a firm believer in it (i think most are). A lot of pitchers can't make the adjustment b/c of lack of stuff or lack of secondary pitches, just like hitters don't adjust to AA b/c of poor contact skills or failure to adjust to secondary pitches.
Kind of all over the place, but I think you get the point.
by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 18, 2006 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Pelfrey....
Also, his slider/slurve looked a lot better to me than what people described last week. His command was way out of whack overall, but that's to be expected in a first start. Uggla praised his breaking stuff, and both he and Ramirez looked terrible when he broke off a good one. He does have two different fastballs as well, and if he can pound the bottom of the zone with a 97 MPH sinker he should be ok. That is one pitch that you just can't teach. I was hoping that Pedro and Guy Conti would have him throwing the change-up of death by now, but you can count the amount of pitchers in history who could throw that pitch like that on two hands..
Pelfrey
I think he's kind of under the radar, if that's possible for arguably the top pitching prospect, is that he rose sooo fast. Plus he doesn't have the minor league stats that some of the other guys has because he's moved up so fast, so there isn't a lot of stats to analyze (due to sample size)
by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 18, 2006 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
On that note...
mental
I like easing them into the rotation too
With the lead the Mets have, I would expect Pelfrey to stay in the rotation, but all the guys will get plenty of rest. Should be interesting how they handle that and maintain their sharpness, yet don't blow out the bullpen.
by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 18, 2006 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Very good list; questions on a few exclusions!
Very good list! :-)
I noticed you didn't include either Adam Miller or Chuck Lofgren, two that might merit some consideration for your list. I was just wondering what your reasons were for leaving them off.
With Miller, is it concern over the elbow, just not impressed with his stats this year, or are you just not as confident in his ability to be a front-of-the-rotation starter in the future?
As for Lofgren, do you just want to see him at AA first before considering him for your list?
Just curious. :-)
By the way, one minor correction on Marte: he won the AAA HR-hitting contest, not AA. That was probably just an oversight. :-)
Again, a very good list - nice work on it!
Take care and have a great day!
miller and lofgren
Thanks for the reply! :-)
Thanks for the reply - greatly appreciated!
I can understand the concern over the elbow, though it's good to know it's not bothering him or holding him back at this point (knock on wood that continues. :-)
It's nice to know they were considered for your Top 50. If I have the chance, I may try to construct my own Top 50, but I have some other things going on, so I'm not sure if I will get to it or not, but I'll try.
Again, thanks for your list. :-)
Take care and have a great weekend!
Here's mine
- Delmon Young, of, Devil Rays
- Alex Gordon, 3b, Royals
- Brandon Wood, ss, Angels
- Cameron Maybin, of, Tigers
- Justin Upton, of, Diamondbacks
- Howie Kendrick, 2b, Angels
- Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds
- Philip Hughes, rhp, Yankees
- Troy Tulowitzki, ss, Rockies
- Lastings Milledge, of, Mets
- Andy LaRoche, 3b, Dodgers
- Andy Marte, 3b, Indians
- Scott Elbert, lhp, Dodgers
- Billy Butler, 3b/of, Royals
- Chris Young, of, Diamondbacks
- Carlos Quentin, of, Diamondbacks
- Carlos Gonzalez, of, Diamondbacks
- Jose Tabata, of, Yankees
- Yovani Gallardo, rhp, Brewers
- Jay Bruce, of, Reds
- Jeff Clement, c, Mariners
- Jeff Niemann, rhp, Devil Rays
- Reid Brignac, ss, Devil Rays
- Joel Guzman, 3b/of, Dodgers
- Adam Miller, rhp, Indians
- Jason Hirsh, rhp, Astros
- Josh Fields, 3b, White Sox
- Nick Adenhart, rhp, Angels
- Humberto Sanchez, rhp, Tigers
- Elijah Dukes, of, Devil Rays
- Joey Votto, 1b, Reds
- Andrew Miller, lhp, Tigers
- Ian Stewart, 3b, Rockies
- Fernando Martinez, of, Mets
- Matt Garza, rhp, Twins
- Erick Aybar, ss, Angels
- Daric Barton, 1b, Athletics
- Edinson Volquez, rhp, Rangers
- Felix Pie, of, Cubs
- Eric Hurley, rhp, Rangers
- Ryan Braun, 3b, Brewers
- Troy Patton, lhp, Astros
- Neil Walker, c, Pirates
- Colby Rasmus, of, Cardinals
- Ricky Romero, lhp, Blue Jays
- Mark Rogers, rhp, Brewers
- Jacob McGee, lhp, Devil Rays
- Sean Gallagher, rhp, Cubs
- Jeff Mathis, c, Angels
- Ubaldo Jimenez, rhp, Rockies
by ddawgs28 on Jul 18, 2006 7:31 AM EDT reply actions
Something to note
by ddawgs28 on Jul 18, 2006 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions
think
by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 18, 2006 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions














