The amazing young influx

by roaddog on Jul 16, 2006 11:44 PM EDT

Prior to the last 5 years I mostly reminisced about the good old days of baseball pre-70. About 5 years ago I started following the minor leagues and it got me back interested in the present game of baseball.

This year pretty legitimate cases can be made for around 10 AL and 15 NL ROY candidates at this point. 1/2 season does not a ROY make, but its pretty darn exciting for me anyway to see so many rooks (and other youngsters that are finally getting a legit shot at PT and producing) playing a full year (well not yet) with such success.

My hypothesis is that baseball had such a strong group of core players that had a strangle hold on their positions for so long (15 years or so), that a good deal of probably pretty good talent ended up frittering away their best years in the minors waiting for regular MLB time (never to get it). Many of those now veterans and possible HOFers are rolling over and nearing retirement at the same time (or are already gone) whereas in the 70s, 80s and 90s I don't think there was such a massive exodus/influx all at within 5 years or so. Free agency may be playing a part in owners being more willing to take a risk on some of the young (cheap) guys vs keeping quite as many veterans?

Looking for people's thoughts about this year's crop of such talented rookies and guys under 26 followed by what seems to be a big group of projected stars ready to come in and play within a year or two. I may be wrong and this may just be a product of me following some of these guys so closely and not being able to see the warts, but in comparison to other eras so much of this young talent looks special and likely to hit within 3 years of each other.

Anyone else recall times in history where such a major influx of young seemingly amazingly good talent is hitting the bigs all at the same time?

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10 AL ROTY candidates?

Maybe there's 10 AL rookies having good seasons, but there's really only 2 or 3 with legit shots at winning ROTY.

by Justin & Joe on Jul 16, 2006 11:54 PM EDT reply actions

zz

I think what he means, is that there are 10 guys that might contend for a ROY if the talent level wasn't so high. Liriano, Pabelbon and Verlander are steps above other ROY in the past. Relative to this year there are only 3 contenders but relative to the history of the ROY many guys might contend.

by babaoriley7 on Jul 17, 2006 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Tough to quantify

In preparing for replay leagues, you notice these things. :) I'm aware that not all players had an immediate impact, but 1986 was a pretty strong year. The 86-88 years are a decent 3 year span of repeated All Stars and possible HOF'ers.

1986 debuts:

Barry Bonds
Barry Larkin
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmiero

Kevin Brown
David Cone
Doug Drabek
Chuck Finley
Greg Maddux
Jamie Moyer

There are quite a few others that were good players, but I won't reach any further. I drew the line at players like Will Clark, Bo Jackson, Bobby Bonilla etc. Good players, but not the level of the above hitters. IMO

1987 saw almost zero "household names" debut. Tom Glavine looks to be the cream of that year. (Edgar Martinez? Matt Williams?, Boomer Wells?)

1988 comes back a little bit, with hitters like Sheffield, Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio and pitchers like Randy Johnson, Schilling and Smoltz.

I'll surely listen to arguments about taking inflated numbers a little less seriously in this era, but that list of hitters in 86 is pretty impressive (or dubious) depending on how you look at things.

by fredo on Jul 17, 2006 12:32 AM EDT reply actions

I know its a while ago...

and not that I lived to see it. But, from 1936 to 1945, a whole bunch of top talent made their debuts.

Joe DiMaggio
Ted Williams
Phil Rizzuto

There are certainly more, but it's almost 1 AM here and I am very tired. This isn't my full list.

Shut up. No one likes you.

by yanksfan6129 on Jul 17, 2006 12:44 AM EDT reply actions

I

don't think scooter really qualifies as "Top Talent." I'd try Vern Stephens or Bucky Walters

by Trenchtown on Jul 17, 2006 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

If

Barry Larkin doesn't make the Hall while the likes of Rizzuto resides there,it will be a travesty.

by BoydsOfSummer on Jul 17, 2006 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions

1936-45

That's a ten year stretch and includes the war. I wouldn't pick the war as a great time for young players.

Bucky Walters debuted in 1931 as a 3B and pitched his first game in 1934.

Debuts by year (nonexhaustive list):
36-Dimaggio-Mize-Feeler
37-Doerr
38-Gordon-Slaughter
39-Williams-Wynn-Newhouser-Keller-Elliott
40-Reese-Marion
41-Musial-Lemon-Stephens-Rizzuto
42-Spahn
43-Hodges
45-Schoendienst-Pierce

by DavidFoss on Jul 17, 2006 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Database Search

You could probably find quite a few times in history if you could do some sort of database search.

For example: In 1956, the 25-and-under-club included Mantle, Mays, Kaline, Mathews, Aaron, FRobinson and Banks who were all playing at a high level. KBoyer, Colavito and Kuenn were playing well as well. Guys who had already debuted, but hadn't established themselves include Clemente, Killebrew, BRobinson, Aparicio, and Mazeroski. Flood, Siebern, Richardson and Groat were around as well. That's just the hitters.

The pitcher list for 1956 is not nearly as impressive but includes Drysdale, Koufax, Bunning, Score, Friend, LJackson, Terry and Pascual.

1956 was a good year for watching young stars and young future stars. There should be other good years as well? Maybe ~1911 with Cobb, Speaker, Jackson, Alexander & Johnson? I won't check the ages right now.

by DavidFoss on Jul 17, 2006 12:59 AM EDT reply actions

I'm not sure about the normal protocol

As long as it's not discouraged by John, check out Baseball Reference. You can look at debuts on a year by year basis. From any player profile, you can link to their debut year. From that list, It's just a matter of picking a year. Players are listed in the year they first appear in the big leagues.

by fredo on Jul 17, 2006 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions

no one way to do this

Oh yeah, looking at your list above. Debut dates is one way that could be done. My way of using age is just another way. I don't think one way is better than the other or anything. Its fairly arbitrary.

Debut dates has the advantage of being easy to find at bb-ref, but the disadvantage of being potentially misleading due to cups of coffee and september callups.

Simple age requires more gruntwork or perhaps a DB and also has a disadvantage of including 'veteran' players who had gotten an early start. (Mantle & Mays were still only 25, but yet quite established by 1956).

Another way would be to look at rookie eligibility, but that would require even more gruntwork.

Probably many other equally valid ways to approach this question.

by DavidFoss on Jul 17, 2006 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions

follow ups

baba, glad to see it wasn't that hard to understand. Exactly what I meant.

Anyway, around the late 30s early 40's was about the best comparison I had in my head as well. Listing those guys helps clarify how special it was. Thanks.

I had thought about mid80s but didn't put it together for that 86 class..wow, that was a good crop.

Maybe early 50s for such high peaks: Gibson, Koufax, Mays, Mantle, Aaron, Campenella, Snider debuts of Brooks and Frank Robinson, Clemente though that stretches it out a little. Coupled with integration and Jackie still playing that had to be an amazing time.

Suffice it to say, I think we are in a renaissance for talent...makes you think that baseball just might get saved as a national past time. If half of these young guys make it to the levels we are seeing, it just seems like we have some really good years ahead. 20 years from now when these guys are sifting out of the game, we may look back and just think "Wow, I had a chance to see THAT guy start." Cool.

by roaddog on Jul 18, 2006 1:33 AM EDT reply actions