Top 20 PRE-SEASON Royals Prospects in Review

by John Sickels on Jul 1, 2006 2:21 PM EDT in News Comment 22 comments

This is the PRE-SEASON list. That means it was generated BEFORE THE SEASON STARTED and that the grades were PRE-SEASON. Anyone complaining about the grades based on 2006 performance will be smacked up the side of the head with a Dee Brown autographed bat.

1) Alex Gordon, 3B, Grade A
Hitting .300/.403/.506 for Double-A Wichita, 20 doubles, 10 homers, 38 walks, 16 steals in 17 attempts. Basically everything expected, hitting for average and power, getting on base, playing good defense, even good speed contributions.

2) Billy Butler, OF, Grade B+
Hitting .326/.389/.500 with 22 doubles, 10 homers for Wichita, strong numbers especially given his age at 20. I think he's going to be a fine hitter.

3) Justin Huber, 1B, B+
Got off to a hot start, promoted to Kansas City and sat on the bench for three weeks, got rusty, sent back to Omaha and (not surprisingly) went into a slump. Now hitting .259/.339/.468. He can do better than that if they let him.

4) Jeff Bianchi, SS, B
Season got off to a late start due to injury rehab. Currently 10-for-21 in rookie ball (.476) with two homers. Should move to a higher level soon.

5) Luis Cota, RHP, B-
3-7, 7.52 in 15 starts for High Desert. Still showing good stuff, above average velocity, but control problems are deadly in High Desert.

6) Chris Lubanski, OF, B-
Hitting .258/.336/.416 with 21 doubles for Wichita. Cold start, got hot in May, then went cold again. This fits his usual pattern. I expect he will go on a hot streak in July and August and finish with good numbers.

7) Denny Bautista, RHP, C+
Look great early in the season, then tweaked a muscle and went on the DL. His mechanics have been a mess since he came back, ruining his control, and he is currently struggling in Omaha (6.88 ERA in four starts).

8) Shane Costa, OF, C+
15-for-44 (.341) for Omaha, hit .248/.280/.384 in 39 games for the Royals. I think he is a .270-.280 hitter at the major league level in a full season, but lack of home run power may make him a "tweener."

9) Chris McConnell, SS, C+
Hitting just .171/.259/.204 in 60 games for Class A Burlington. Quite disappointing, as he was expected to hit following his strong performance last year in short-season ball.

10) Mitch Maier, OF, C+
Hitting .278/.337/.440 with 15 doubles, eight homers for Wichita. Doing OK, looking more and more like a possible fourth outfielder. His defense has developed into a major asset.

11) Donnie Murphy, 2B, C+
Hitting .234/.301/.394 for Wichita, struggling with injuries. Status is slipping.

12) Andres Blanco, SS, C+
Hitting .253/.310/.359 for Omaha. Good glove but his hitting leaves a lot to be desired. Makes contact but does not drive the ball.

13) Billy Buckner, RHP, C+
7-1, 3.90 in 16 starts for High Desert, 85/47 K/BB in 90 innings. Pitching very well actually; remember what a 3.90 ERA in High Desert means. Although his control still needs some work I'd be willing to promote him to Double-A at this point.

14) Chris Nicoll, RHP, C+
3-5, 2.84 in 13 starts for Burlington, 74/20 K/BB in 76 innings. Pitching quite well, showing strong command of decent stuff.

15) Kila Kaaihue, 1B, C+
Hitting .178/.270/.223 in 61 games for Wichita, with ZERO homers. He hit for power in the low minors but seems totally overmatched in Double-A.

16) Mike Aviles, SS, C
Hitting .252/.281/.376 for Omaha. Seems to have topped out as a hitter, with utility work his eventual destination.

17) Joseph Dickerson, OF, C
Just activated from extended spring training, is 12-for-34 (.353) so far for Idaho Falls.

18) Brent Fisher, LHP, C
Just activated from extended spring training, has a 12/1 K/BB in his first 10 innings (allowing one run) for the AZL Royals. He has excellent control and should move up to Idaho Falls or Burlington later this summer.

19) Angel Sanchez, SS, C
Similar to Blanco, has a good glove but a questionable bat. Currently at .285/.350/.353 for Wichita.

20) Danny Tamayo, RHP, C
Has thrown 26 innings for Omaha, going 3-2, 4.21 with a 26/4 K/BB. On the DL with shoulder trouble.

Comment: A mixed bag. Gordon and Butler look great, and Huber was doing well before rotting on the bench in the majors for no apparent reason. I think he will rebound. Lack of pitching depth is a major issue. Nicoll and Buckner look good, but control problems hamper Cota and Bautista. Between Blanco, Sanchez, Avila, and Murphy the Royals should be able to find a useful utility man, but none of them look like potential regulars at this stage.

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Comments

Buckner

Based on John's recomendation, Buckner has indeed been promoted and will start for Wichita tonight.

by nwroyal on Jul 1, 2006 2:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

p.s.

anyone else think that picture of Billy Butler, he looks like a young Victor Garber (from the show "Alias")?

by nwroyal on Jul 1, 2006 2:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cordier

John what do you think of Eric Cordier?

by twill on Jul 1, 2006 4:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

cordier

I like Cordier a lot, enough that I shadow-drafted him in 2004.

by John Sickels on Jul 1, 2006 4:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hochevar

John,

what would grade Hochevar and where would you rank him?

by nwroyal on Jul 1, 2006 4:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hochevar's status?

Can Royals fans chime in on his status? Deal close or no?

by npurcell on Jul 1, 2006 6:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Royals' Signees

From the Royals' Around the Horn (the official team blog) yesterday:

SIGNING UPDATE: We've received a number of emails from fans wanting to know the status on our draft picks. Well, the scouting department has been very busy and has signed every pick between the second and 17th rounds, as well as 21-23, 31 and 50. Hope that helps!

(Pardon this mini-rant in advance: "Hope that helps!"?!? We (the fans) hope that Hochevar is signed soon, and that he and an unusually high percentage of these draftees/signees can actually help the Royals become competitive again. For the record, yes, I'm still hoping for all of that.)

I'm glad the Royals have signed so many of their early picks (including the fastest guy in the draft), but equally disappointed that there was not a word about Hochevar there. I don't have a Star subscription, but I haven't heard any talk on local sports radio or seen any links to stories or columns on Hochevar's signing negotiations online either. On the other hand, Alex Gordon did not sign immediately last year, so Hochevar could still be signed in a shorter timeframe.

In the post-draft coverage on local sports radio, many broadcasters speculated that Hochevar, despite being a Boras client and a much higher selection in 2006 than in 2005, would be signable for something close to $4M or less. That figure would have represented a significant increase over the Dodgers' offer last year, and Hochevar made some money as a pro last year, and he would be crazy to not sign two years in a row.

The other train of speculative thought suggested that if Hochevar required more money than the Royals cared to spend, the team would attempt to arrange a sign-and-trade deal with another team. Perhaps the Dodgers wouldn't mind getting him a year later, especially for the right deal -- and surely there is some interest from other teams, too.

by Stat Ninja on Jul 4, 2006 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

trade

MLB rules would prohibit the Royals from trading Hochevar until one year has passed from the time he was drafted. I doubt many teams will be lined up to trade for Hochevar if he has held out until that point.

by eazyb81 on Jul 4, 2006 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cordier

Surprised Cordier didn't make the list, I think most Royals fans would have in their top 15. He's certainly more of a prospect than Kaaihue or Aviles, IMO.

I think 10-20 will look a lot different next year once some of KC's recent draft picks are eligible for the list. Guys like Murphy, Blanco, Kaaihue, Aviles, and Tamayo drop off and be replaced by Jason Taylor, Derrick Robinson, Harold Mozingo, and Brett Bigler.

by eazyb81 on Jul 2, 2006 12:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

cordier

Cordier would certianly be on the list now, but remember this was generated PRE-SEASON!!!

by John Sickels on Jul 2, 2006 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Get out the Dee Brown bat...

by limozeen on Jul 3, 2006 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think

its fair to say he should have been in there pre-season too.
I dont nessecarily agree with that but its a reasonable statement. He was one of the few pitchers in the system at the time with anysort of upside.
Since the preseason hes only made 3 Pioneer league starts, its not like a ton has changed.

Why did he miss last year BTW..injury i assume but what sort

by nms on Jul 3, 2006 4:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

knee surgery

his cleat got stuck in the turf and twisted his knee. An MRI revealed that he had an abnormal bone formation in his knee, and they opted to go ahead with surgery which made him miss all of last season.

by eazyb81 on Jul 3, 2006 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

AAA

Butler and Gordon are ready for AAA. No idea what's keeping the Royals from promoting them.

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Jul 2, 2006 4:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No rush

I will be furious if they promote Butler to AAA this year, because he still has plenty to learn defensively. He's also much younger than Gordon, so he may as well develop as much as possible in the minors by 2008. Besides, it wouldn't hurt either of them to compete for a full season in Wichita now. The Wranglers finished 3rd and seven games behind in their division in the first half. They are currently leading their division in the second half, and I'd like to see them develop and win together in the minors if possible.

Since the Royals aren't in a pennant race and Teahen has been showing some signs of improvement, I see no reason to rush Alex Gordon, either. I'll agree that promoting Gordon to AAA Omaha this year would be OK, but if Gordon is helped by any time in AAA at all, why not a full season of AA this year and as much AAA time as he needs next year?

I'd hate to see the Royals repeat the same mistake with Gordon (or Butler or any of their current prospects) which ruined so many other KC prospects in the past few years: entitlement. Major-league roles should be earned, not given or taken for granted. Baseball is a team sport with winning and losing team efforts, I wonder whether young major-leaguers would make fewer selfish rookie mistakes if the focus of their minor-league careers had always been on team objectives rather than individual stats and individual promotions. When the Twins developed their youth movement, the organization tried to keep the prospect classes together to win and move up together, and it worked. I hope the Royals learn and copy as much as they possibly can from the Twins, Angels, and any other organization which develops a higher percentage of prospects.

For now, I'm more worried about Huber and Costa. Huber should make the Royals' 2007 Opening Day roster at first base, and it would be great if the starting OF included DeJesus, Gathright, and Costa. Unfortunately, 2/3 of that OF need to show a lot of improvement now, and neither may get enough of a chance unless Emil Brown and Reggie Sanders are dealt by the deadline.

by Stat Ninja on Jul 5, 2006 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Alan Moye

I know he is/was not considered a top top prospect, but does anyone know where Alan Moye ended up this year? Injured? Out of baseball? He had a good 2005...

by Chief on Jul 3, 2006 5:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Moye

Alan Moye quietly retired before the season began.

by kevinagee on Jul 4, 2006 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Butler vs. Gordon

Is Gordon still the better prospect? I kind of expected more HRs out of him, but with those doubles he still should be a 30 HR hitter.

Gordon is 2 years a 2 months older than Butler. Gordon looking more athletic and like he'll age better seems like the only reason why someone would predict better offensive production for Gordon over Butler. Of course Gordon's defense is much better and at a superior position (3B vs LF/RF/DH).

by ultxmxpx on Jul 3, 2006 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Butler is a stud

I think he's been underrated for a while now...

He's been one of the most consistent all-around hitters in the minors the last 2 years.

He has everything at the plate. Power, average, and discipline.

I'd still rate Gordon ahead of him due to the athleticism, defensive position, and threat on the basepaths.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Jul 3, 2006 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Gordon gets the edge for all of those reasons, and another: if they don't arrive in KC at the same time, Gordon will most likely be promoted first.

Even if one prospect is considered to have more potential than another, the one closest to the majors should probably get the higher ranking.

by Stat Ninja on Jul 5, 2006 11:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

What? No Roscoe Crosby!?!?!

by ScottAZ on Jul 7, 2006 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

all things considered

wouldn't it make sense to get Gordon and Butler to KC this year? Even if Butler is confined to DH, a low-pressure environment (KC is going nowhere fast) seems like an ideal opportunity to get these guys 200 or so MLB ABs.

Unless they hit .180, there shouldn't be much downside. Gordon seems like he could duplicate what Ryan Zimmerman is doing fairly quickly, and Butler seems to have the wherewithal to have at least modest success right now in the bigs.

by davidrmark on Jul 7, 2006 1:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs