Evaluating HS prospects

by D O on Jun 9, 2006 4:29 PM EDT

A question for everybody. But first this disclaimer: I am in no way questioning the validity of anybody else's analysis nor am I suggesting that the people on this site do not know their stuff. That said, on to the question:

How can a fan (I'm excluding people like John who do this for a living) get an accurate read on how a good a high school draft prospect is, to the point where they can feel comfortable ranking them (eg. 1:Kershaw, 2: Drebeck etc.) Depending on where you live you might have a chance to see a few of these guys live, and in that case I can see how you'd form a pretty educated opinion of them. But it is just almost impossible to see all these guys (and certainly to see them all more than once or twice). And of course their stats don't really tell all that much, even if they are facing pretty good competition.

I'm assuming people are going based on scouting reports, and organizing the available information based on their own personal priorities. For example, Pitcher A throws 90-92 and Pitcher B throws in the upper 90s but with less advanced feel for pitching. The ranking then would be based on whether you personally favor stuff or pitchability... Is this about right?

Again, I'm not questioning anybody's credibility-- I really am trying to figure for my own education how this is done. I feel confident in my ability to rank young big leaguers or prospects with sufficient track records, but when I see everybody ranking the recent draftees I think "How did they do that? I'd have nothing to go on except to take BA's list and switch a few names so that nobody knew I cheated."

So I wonder if folks would like to discuss how they go about this, and which pieces of the limited available information they prioritize... Thanks very much.

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Comments

it's a giant game of telephone

basically we're all reading various prospect sites, processing the information according to our own knowledge, gut feeling and personal preferences, and then forming opinions and sharing them acting like we know what we're talking about. so, essentially, it is all made up.

by wily mo on Jun 9, 2006 4:54 PM EDT reply actions

I could tell you ...

But I'd have to kill you. Asking people to devulge scouting secrets is kind of like asking a pitcher how to hit their specialty pitch. As an overview though, there are three main methods I can recommend:

1 - First-hand scouting. There is no substitute for seeing the game first hand. Seeing the Kershaw's and the Drabek's first-hand isn't as much a priority as just getting out to see what other kids at that level are doing. That way, when you read that Drabek has the best overall stuff in the draft, you have a point of reference.

2 - Written reports and knowing who to trust. Most reliable scouting reports are found in news articles. It's the reader's job to decide who to trust. Obviously, it isn't an exact science. Like with anything though, practice makes perfect.

3 - Wait and see. A lot of fans of the game want to be able to devine ahead of time what will take place on the diamond. There is a lot to be said for approaching the game passively, though. Most people who can see the future of the game, so to speak, are in a position to affect it; i.e. coaches, scouts, good players, etc. If you are a fan who wants to enjoy the sport, sometimes it's wise to sit back and let the game come to you. That includes which prospects will succeed at the next level and beyond. Ultimately, it's a player's job to succeed. It isn't your job to know if they will.

by StickRat on Jun 9, 2006 6:11 PM EDT reply actions

how did Sulentic compare to other HS hitters

chosen in the early rounds? he dominated against the tough competition in texas, but he only has avg tools across the board and his hitting ability is his main tool. i was jsut surprised A's would take 2 hs picks so early. was Cahill considered an overdraft? because Dayn Perry didnt like the pick at all

by rayver723 on Jun 9, 2006 6:15 PM EDT reply actions