How would you rank 05 and 06 HS arms

by Ienpw on Jun 8, 2006 11:11 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

in the draft, as their status BEFORE the draft occured. I think they're something like this

Volstad
Pawalek
Kershaw
Jeffress
Willems
Kiker
Anderson

Im sure I'm forgetting a guy from last year's. This years draft seemed to have a little more depth but not the high side. I could also be a moron and completely wrong.

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Drabek (06) Aaron Thompson (05)

are 2 other round 1 guys.

by novaoakland on Jun 8, 2006 11:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wow

how did I forget Drabek when I made that? He lives a mile away...

by Ienpw on Jun 8, 2006 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kershaw, before Tuesday, ranked above where Volstad and Pawelek were going into last year's draft. Which is to say, had Kershaw been available in 2005, he would have been picked before Volstad and Pawelek. A fairly polished Texas HS lefty who throws 92-96 MPH with a plus curve would be EXPECTED to rank ahead of a polished HS righty who throws 89-92 and a rather raw Utah HS lefty with a fastball similar to Kershaw's but very inconsistent secondary pitches. Heck, Pawelek is so raw that the Cubs don't think he is ready for low A this year, which is pretty amazing for a 1st round pick.

by CanuckDodger on Jun 9, 2006 12:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pawelek

Yeah I just do not get why they still have him at spring. I will give them benefit of doubt for now but really makes you question that pick.

by novaoakland on Jun 9, 2006 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

pawalek was like number 2 or 3 on BA's closest to

the majors from HS list. the cubs are going very slow with him. the only recent HS arm to go to Low A the year after he was drafted for the Cubs was Gallagher and that was due to a few injuries.

by Ienpw on Jun 9, 2006 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yep

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/2005draft/besttools.html

3rd closes to majors for HS.

by novaoakland on Jun 9, 2006 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and

tops among HS pitchers.
Still, why rush him?
I don't see the advantages.
Plus doing this keeps work off his arm.

by nms on Jun 9, 2006 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pawelek

And BA sometimes turns out to be wrong when they make up those rankings. No Utah HS player is going to be "close to the majors," and BA should have known that. The quality of HS baseball competition in Utah is just WAY behind the quality of play in California, Texas and Florida, and the coaching isn't as good either. Pawelek's value was always in his potential, his upside. Given that upside, if clubs had thought he was more polished, Pawelek certainly wouldn't have remained on the board as long as he did, and he certainly would have been drafted ahead of the less-exciting Volstad, especially since Pawelek's advisor, Boras, for once in his life wasn't being unreasonable about bonus demands.

by CanuckDodger on Jun 9, 2006 4:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so BA

can't be wrong on how advanced kershaw is?

by Ienpw on Jun 9, 2006 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BA Has Nothing To Do With It

I believe Kershaw is pretty advanced for a HS pitcher. Because BA says so? Not at all. Kershaw has been pitching against some of the best HS competition in America (the Dallas area of Texas), his breaking ball is a CONSISTENTLY plus pitch, and he repeates his delivery well. Pawelek did not have any of those three things going for him.

by CanuckDodger on Jun 10, 2006 3:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

I'm going to include Drabek on this list. Here's how I would've rated them. Note that I think all of these guys rate as solid (at the least) prospects, so saying that one is No. 8 shouldn't give the wrong impression.

Drabek
Kershaw
Jeffress
Kiker
Pawalek
Volstad
Anderson
Willems

Drabek is an easy No. 1 for me, a power pitcher who would've been a no-brainer top 5 pick if he was even an inch or two taller.

Volstad has been rather disappointing so far; he's doing a good job of controlling his walks but his other numbers just aren't very impressive. He's pretty twiggish at this point though, so it's going to take 2-3 years for the Marlins to see what they really have here.

From what I understand, Pawalek was held back in part because the Cubs thought he had some mechanical issues to work through. If that was the case, I have a hard time complaining after seeing how Mark Rogers has struggled to handle full season competition while ironing out the flaws in his mechanics. He looked good in his short-season stints last year, and I see no reason to look down on him yet. If his mechanics are good, his excellent stuff should let him move quickly, and I wouldn't totally rule out a short stint in Peoria this season if he looks ready.

by mrkupe on Jun 9, 2006 1:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs