Oliver Perez

by calig23 on Jun 29, 2006 9:47 PM EDT

Well, after briefly being moved to the bullpen (and making no appearances in that role), Oliver Perez has been demoted to AAA.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-pirates-perez&prov=ap&type=lgns

What will this mean for him? Is there any chance of returning to what he did in 2004? What the heck is wrong with him in the first place? Where did his velocity go?

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I hope so... those "I burned them again" commercials where he bakes cookies in the shapes of opposing hitters was hilarious, and it would be great to see them again.

by BobbyMac on Jun 29, 2006 10:17 PM EDT reply actions

I think so

***Disclaimer: He is on my fantasy team.

I have seen about seven of his starts this year, from the good to the ugly (because there is really nothing in between). I did miss the last couple of starts, however.

I do know that he was throwing consistently at 93/94 when his mechanics were on this year. Personally, I think the Pirates coaches got too far in his head because his mechanics would change quite a bit from start to start. His best chance is to be traded. If he is, and his new team comes up with a game plan and sticks to it, he will be back. I think. He also does not look like he is injured to me, and when he was clicking, it was like watching the 2004 version.

Also, I strongly believe that he was coming around until he threw 127 pitches against the Stros on May 28. Tracy sending him out there for the 9th was moronic, abusive, and, to me, simply proves that the Pirates are the second-worst top-to-bottom managed team in baseball (behind the Royals, of course).

Just my opinion.

by bigfatdrunk on Jun 29, 2006 10:43 PM EDT reply actions

Perez in AAA

To me the demotion will be short lived... Perez did some stupid stuff last season, like breaking his foot on a locker room trash can, but this season his experiment with his four different deliveries obviously isn't working, hopefully a couple stats for Indy will straighten the kid up, and maybe he'll be a productive Major Leaguer again. As far as the Jim Tracy comment above, I couldn't agree more, leaving him in for the 9th with an enormous pitch count was the worst decision for Oliver, who is at sometimes on the verge of greatness. Perhaps the demotion will be the best thing for Perez, otherwise I'm sure many other teams would love to try their hand with Oliver. I'm rooting for you #59!

by Mike McBride on Jun 29, 2006 11:14 PM EDT reply actions

Trade bait?

Any chance they will give up on him and look to trade him to a contender believing them can turn him around this season for the stretch run?

by mg050369 on Jun 30, 2006 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions

interesting risk

obviously hes no sure thing so i wouldnt want my team giving up too much to get him but if the pirates are really fed up with him and didn't ask for too much in return, that could turn out to be a david ortiz-esque lo-risk/hi-reward type gamble

by Rob Castellano on Jun 30, 2006 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

my thoughts

I like bigfatdrunk's disclaimer so I will use one too:

***Disclaimer: I probably don't know what I'm talking about

I think 2004 was as much a fluke as I think 2005-2006 are also flukes. I think his true talent level is probably in between. This isn't very rigorous, but for his career, minor and major, he has either struck out or walked 37% of the batters he has faced. In 2004 he walked or struck out 39%, which is reasonably in line with his career. The difference was that more batters struck out, and fewer batters walked, in '04 than at any other time. Not to say that there wasn't real improvement, but there may also have been a lot of swinging at that 3-2 pitch out of the zone. Not being a Pittsburg fan, I was only able to catch highlight reels of his starts from '04, so from my rediculously small sample size observation, it seemed like he generated a lot of K's of the swinging variety.

Like I said in my disclaimer, I probably don't know what I'm talking about, but I think maybe we should have expected some of the unexpected gains of 2004 to come back. Coupled with high expectations and media exposure, I'm thinking that he was probably cruisin' for a bruisin' anyway.

It sounds like he hasn't lost any stuff, so there is probably no physical reason he can't come back and be an exciting 8K/4BB per game guy. The tendancy for teams (and the players themselves) to panic and tweak mechanics probably only hurts things. His confidence is obviously shattered, and he probably needs to rebuild his mechanics from the ground up, quite possibly in another organization.

Sort version: maybe not ever going to be as good as 2004, but there is always hope.

by Fist of Fury on Jun 30, 2006 1:55 PM EDT reply actions

Good points

I believe you made some valid points. Not bad for someone who doesn't know what they're talking about ;-).

Past performance is a wonderful indicator of future performance. That theory works for stocks, baseball players, and rats in mazes or on my roof at 3am last night. I know that I have expectations, however, for a young pitcher who reaches the majors with awesome stuff, and this is to show steady improvement.

Here's an example. Nolan Ryan's BB/9 ratio fell from 6.63BB/9IP in 1970, his first year with more starts than relief appearances, to a control artist-esque 3.26 in 1990. Too severe of an example? How about Sudden Sam McDowell? Or Al Downing? Or even John Smoltz? So far, Perez has gone the route of Steve Dalkowski and Ryne Duren instead of showing improvement. But at 4BB/9IP, it would have been only a matter of time before the league caught up with his poor control, so trying to improve was a necessary evil.

I can tell you that if my son were to be drafted by the Royals or Pirates, I'd hold out until the next draft. I have no doubt he needs a new environment at this point.

by bigfatdrunk on Jun 30, 2006 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't completely agree...

It sounds like he hasn't lost any stuff

Except that he has. His velocity is nowhere near what it was in 2004. This year (and last year, too, really), he is lucky if he reaches 92-93. In 2004, he was consistently higher than that. This basically leaves him with two options: Throw his slider (which used to be nasty) which he is inable to locate at all, and walk lots of batters. Or, throw his fastball, which has significantly less velocity than it used to, and watch it get blasted.

by calig23 on Jun 30, 2006 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Um...

Well anyone with a nasty out pitch is going to get that. Sheets buries his curveball in the dirt all the time. Pedro's change, Johnson's slider, Clemens fastball up in the zone and splitter done...its everywhere.

I think 2004 was a true sign of his talent, andthe big difference was consistency of his fastball and his command of it. Don't get that over no ones going to swing at your breaking pitches.

by SenorGato88 on Jul 1, 2006 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions