Top 20 Chicago Cubs PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

by John Sickels on Jun 24, 2006 2:21 PM EDT in News Comment 13 comments

Ronny Cedeno

This is the PRE-SEASON list. That means it was generated BEFORE THE SEASON STARTED and that the grades were PRE-SEASON. Anyone complaining about the grades based on 2006 performance will be smacked up the side of the head with a Mike Harkey autographed baseball.

1) Mark Pawelek, LHP, Grade B+
Just activated from extended spring training. Allowed two runs in four innings in his first start for short-season Boise.

2) Felix Pie, OF, B+
Hitting .256/.321/.404 in 70 games for Triple-A Iowa. Disappointing. The tools are still here but his baseball skills have stalled out against better competition. Still young enough to improve though.

3) Ronny Cedeno, SS, B
Hitting .280/.303/.377 for the Cubs. Good batting average, but lack of patience is a serious issue and cripples his OBP.

4) Eric Patterson, 2B, B
Patterson is at Double-A West Tennessee, hitting .284/.346/.444 with 21 steals, not spectacular but solid enough.

5) Jae-Kuk Ryu, RHP, B
2-6, 3.79 in 74 innings for Iowa, with a 57/28 K/BB. Command still an occasional problem but overall he is doing OK.

6) Donald Veal, LHP, B
5-3, 2.69 in 14 starts for Class A Peoria, 86/40 K/BB in 74 innings, just 45 hits allowed. Needs to improve his control, but has just a .179 opposition batting average. Doing well and should rise up the lists as the season progresses.

7) Sean Gallagher, RHP, B
4-0, 2.30 in 13 starts for Daytona, with an 80/21 K/BB in 78 innings. Just promoted to Double-A, won his first start (two runs in five innings). I still like him.

8) Angel Guzman, RHP, B-
0-2, 5.68 in four starts for the Cubs, 29/20 K/BB in 25 innings. Great stuff, control is still a problem obviously.

9) Rich Hill, LHP, B-
0-4, 9.31 ERA in four starts for the Cubs, undone by control problems. He has a 2.12 ERA and an 86/12 K/BB in 64 innings in Triple-A, but has been unable to show the same kind of command in the major leagues.

10) Carlos Marmol, RHP, B-
1-2, 4.98 in 22 innings for the Cubs. Has passed Guzman and Hill on the depth chart due to more consistent command. I really like Marmol and I think he deserves more attention.

11) Sean Marshall, LHP, B-
4-5, 4.97 in 14 starts for the Cubs, flashing potential but erratic. Is doing pretty well considering that he skipped Triple-A and has just a handful of Double-A starts under his belt.

12) Scott Moore, 3B, B-
Hitting .276/.342/.500 with 12 homers, 20 walks, 76 strikeouts in 246 at-bats in Double-A. Good power, but strikeout rate is high, walks lower than ideal. Shouldn't be rushed and will need more time.

13) Ryan Harvey, OF, C+
Hitting .209/.252/.347 for Daytona, with 13/62/239 BB/K/AB ratio. Poor strike zone judgment is inhibiting his production. At this point I am skeptical about his chances.

14) Mark Holliman, RHP, C+
Solid year, 5-4, 2.88 in 14 starts for Daytona, 75/35 K/BB in 81 innings, just 54 hits allowed (.189 BAG). Needs to tighten up his command a bit but he is having a fine campaign and will move up the list.

15) Mike Phelps, RHP, C+
Combined 2-0, 2.45 between Peoria and Daytona, with 19/6 K/BB in 22 innings. Decent year in middle relief, which will be his role at higher levels as well.

16) Brian Dopirak, 1B, C
Hitting just .259/.349/.296 at West Tennessee, but 16-game sample size is too small to be meaningful as he has missed most of the year with a broken foot.

17) Brandon Sing, 1B, C
Hitting a combined .182/.306/.318 between West Tennessee and Iowa. Is drawing walks but that's about it. . .production is way down this year. Not sure what to think here.

18) Rich Rohlicek, LHP, C
Now in the Brewers system, 4.64 ERA in 23 games for Double-A Huntsville, 32/16 K/BB in 33 innings. Still might have a career as a LOOGY.

19) Randy Wells, RHP, C
4-2, 1.59 in 12 starts in Double-A, 54/13 K/BB in 62 innings. A fine campaign, throwing strikes. Deserves a shot in Triple-A soon.

20) Grant Johnson, RHP, C
Struggling with his command at Daytona, is 4-5, 5.17 in 10 starts with a 29/22 K/BB in 54 innings. Not living up to expectations at all. I have a report that his velocity is down substantially.

Comment:
A mixed bag. I'm starting to wonder if Rich Hill will ever put it together, at least for this organization. I like what Marmol has done. Guzman still has a lot of potential but is starting to remind me of Juan Cruz. There are some interesting pitchers on the way up...Wells, Phelps, Gallagher. Veal was on my major sleeper list entering the season. But what's up with the hitters? Why have Pie and Sing stalled out so badly?

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Comments

funny how almost

all these guys are obp challenged. guess they just don't teach it, don't think its important or what have you..

but bad obp along w/ strikeouts...

tends to lead to lot of lead-footed slogging on the development trail no matter how many tools a guy has.

by dryice on Jun 24, 2006 2:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This system...

is horrible.

Lucky we have a half decent nucleus because the drafts have been meh at best, and theres very little on the farm there.

by SenorGato88 on Jun 24, 2006 3:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Cubs

like the hacktaskic approach, and it pervades throughout the organization.

They also prefer good "athletes" over good baseball players.

by pd on Jun 24, 2006 7:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Excellent Site, I love This!

Way-to-go with this site, will be spending some time here...

Not a criticism here, just pointing out that Patterson may be pretty darn good. He is playing a position, 2B, that is THE 2nd worst offensively on the roster, i.e., on all MLB rosters Catcher is the most anemic offesnive position and 2B is the 2nd worst. So when a guy can slug above .400 at 2B you have to keep an eye on him. Combined with some excellent speed and a decent OBP, I think there is some real potential here for a quality MLB 2B. I realize that these are minor league stats, but they show that he is doing something of great value at his particular position especially. Keep an eye on this kid, I'd like to see him get a look in September.

Aren't Harvey and Dporiak former high school teammates? Harvey looks abysmal...

the Cubs tend to favor heavily high school position players and they also favor speed and atheletes in their scouting so I think that you'll see a ton of flameouts in their system because most of those kinds of guys tend to really suck when they play against better competition. However, the Cubs are blindly and unbeknownst to themselves, walking down a path of high variance high return prospects. That is to say, when you do find that one in a million athelete with speed, power, and plate discipline then you have a potential regular all-star. I think this is a reasonable draft strategy, but I hope that they have a system in place that teaches these kids useful baseball skills, fundamentals and above all--the strike zone...The Cubs need to brain wash these kids from day one that the Cubs play smart baseball and that they value you getting on base and being patient, swinging at good pitches--NOT aggressive baloney. I doubt that they do this because at the major league level they think that things just happen if you are aggressive enough. I think this idiocy is what permeates the Cubs entire organization...

by dudeVf1 on Jun 25, 2006 12:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Response

John had Patterson at a B grade, which would project him as a future major league regular at 2B. I'm not sure that you'll find too many people who think of him as more than that at this point. If he improved his plate discipline I could see him being very good with his power/speed combination, but I'm not seeing that right now. As it is I think he'll be a decent average hitter with an okay OBP, but with above-average HR power for a 2B and a nice number of steals. He should have enough to offer a team to warrant a starting position somewhere, I'm skeptical of predicting stardom for him.

The bigger problem for the Cubs is that they just aren't very good at taking raw players and teaching them even the most basic fundamentals that they need to succeed at higher levels. It's one thing when a guy doesn't walk a lot yet is still capable of picking out good pitches to hit, and it's an entirely different thing when a guy just swings at everything and does all the work for the pitcher. They've brought Harvey along about as slowly as possible and he's beyond terrible, bad enough to the point that I have to think that organizational teaching methods are at least partially responsible.

I think the Cubs are very much aware that they tend to embrace a high risk/high reward approach in drafting/signing prospects, and it's not necessarily a bad thing. They just happen to be really, really bad when it comes to helping their prospects turn tools into baseball skills. Perhaps the Cubs need to improve their player evaluation methods to some extent as well, but I think there are rather glaring issues with the developmental apparatus in this system.

by mrkupe on Jun 25, 2006 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if one looks at the major league club...

one sees a team with a lot of what would seem to be professional hitters, actually good hitters,
but...

who - as a team - puts more 0 and 1 and 2 run games against not even really good pitching

(take last night games against Bonser, about ready to be bounced from rotation if not from major leagues, but, facing cubs, was his lucky day - pitched a shutout).

they just lack synergy, the idea that every hitter has a role to play, so the sum (runs) is greater than the individual pieces (individual hitters)

this team as an organization needs to rethink its approach from the top down, and start playing some smart baseball.

by dryice on Jun 25, 2006 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lack of accountability, not synergy

The real problem that permiates this organization right now is a lack of accountability. Never in all my years have I seen a more fundamentally flawed group. Not just the 06 model either. Every cubs team since 03 has been terrible in regards to baserunning, situational hitting, hitting cutoff men, throwing to the correct base, etc. The roster has flipped, yet these problems still persist. I would have to say that it is an indictment on Dusty Baker.

by aaronb on Jun 27, 2006 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

Anyone who missed your top 20 who's on the rise? I suppose I'm thinking Jake Fox, who just got the promotion to AA; how does he rate among "offensive-minded" catchers? Any others in the system we're missing.

by Azteca on Jun 25, 2006 2:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

sam Fuld

is old for Daytona. He has looked really good so far. He needs to be in Jackson ASAP.

by aaronb on Jun 27, 2006 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

phew

I mean, smacked upside the head with a Mike Harkey baseball? There are 14 yo girl's pillow fights that have more impact than that! Thanks for taking it easy on us, John.

I mean, what's next? You'll have Jerome Walton flail us with his bat? I pay doms to hit me harder than that!

BFD

PS: What about Dwight Smith? Eh, might be too much like a mosquito, and I really, really hate mosquitos. We should stick with Harkey and Walton. And Pat Cline.

by bigfatdrunk on Jun 25, 2006 10:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Worse

Repeat offenders get a Fossum Flip to the fleshy part of the thigh.

by drjayphd on Jun 25, 2006 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scott Moore

I've seen Moore play here at West Tenn. He has nice pop and could have a plus glove at third base. He strikes out a lot, but his plate discipline doesn't really look that bad from what I've seen. He's only 22 and is at AA, so he still has plenty of time. It's not like the Cubs need a new starting 3B right now.

by Tcs5384 on Jun 26, 2006 5:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs