Prospect Retro Request: John Smoltz

by djshelto on Jun 20, 2006 11:21 AM EDT Comment 6 comments

could we get a Prospect Retro on John Smoltz? As a Tiger's fan, I'm constantly involved in debates on the (in?)famous Smoltz-Alexander Trade from '87. I don't recall Smoltz being a top-notch prospect at the time, but I wasn't in very deep either. I'd like to see what John thinks/thought about him at the time.

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Trade analysis

Last year, HBT did a terrific breakdown of the trade, using win shares. Bottom line, when you account for present value (Alexander helped right away and Smoltz didn't for a few years), the Tigers did all right.

I'd still rather have Smoltz. ;-)

http://www.hardballtimes.com/daily/article/smoltz-for-alexander/

by Yakker on Jun 20, 2006 12:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

article

yeah, i remember that article. i just don't remember what kind of prospect Smoltz was at the time. I don't recall him being an A or A+ rated player, so the trade hurts less (low-to-mid-level prospect for veteran, once in awhile those prospects really blossom). But if he was a hot commodity, then it looks a little worse.

and yes, i'd rather have smoltz as well, but given the gamble, i don't have a big problem with the trade :)

by djshelto on Jun 20, 2006 12:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

At the time of the deal

Smoltz had a high ceiling and great stuff but no results. He was selected in the 22nd round of the draft out of Waverly HS in Lansing. He was struggling in A ball (NYPL):

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/john-smoltz.shtml

130.0 ip 131 h 89 r 82 er 81 bb 86 k

At the time of the deal.

The Braves saw something in him and brought him all the way up to Richmond.

He only had 3 starts in AAA that year with Richmond:

16.0 ip 17 h 11 r 11 er 11 bb 5 k

Then in 1988 the Braves must have fixed a mechanical problem because John had a major breakthrough:

135.1 ip 118 h 49 r 42 er 37 bb 115 k

So basically at the time the Tigers probably knew that they had a raw talented player on their hands.

There is a chance the Tigers would never have found the problem that was causing the control issues. Their instructors were not the best at the time.

by VtTigers on Jun 21, 2006 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hear ya

I think a retro on Smoltz would be cool too. I remember there being concerns he'd play basketball, which may have been part of why he didn't get drafted too high.

by Yakker on Jun 20, 2006 1:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Smoltz

Smoltz was a great competitor so he would have done well wherever he pitched. But Smoltz may not have been as great had he not pitched in Atlanta. Cox/Mazzone, the peer effect of having Glavine/Maddux on the staff, and Schuerholtz giving the Braves enough pieces to compete at a high level every year aid a player's ability to perform.

"I may not be a class act, but I'm an American." Ron Artest on wanting to play for the Olympic team

by natsfan2005 on Jun 20, 2006 2:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wait a second

If we're talking about all the secondary effects, let's not forget that from 1988-96 Smoltz pitched in one of the most offensive-geared parks in all of baseball, the Launching Pad at Fulton Co. Stadium.

by Yakker on Jun 20, 2006 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs