Ian Stewart Crystal Ball

by John Sickels on May 6, 2006 1:38 PM EDT in News

I've probably received more requests for an Ian Stewart Crystal Ball than for any other player, no doubt because everyone wants to see some truly gaudy Coors Field stats. Are you satisfied with the following?

Remember the caveats: this is meant to stimulate discussion.

Tweet Comment 26 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Hmm

That's the weirdest signature I've seen in quite a while.

Love how some of those numbers just tumble after moving from Coors to the Safe.

by Flynn Blake on May 6, 2006 1:58 PM EDT reply actions

Safeco

35 HRs in Seattle seems a bit high to me, unless over half are on the road.

by Robinson Checo on May 6, 2006 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

He's got enough of a bat to get forty HR

I hope we get something really nice for him when he goes to Seattle.

by Rox Girl on May 6, 2006 1:59 PM EDT reply actions

That would be on heck of a season for Stewart....

.371, 34 HR, 141 RBI as a 28 year old....That would be one of the best seasons of the last 30-40 years easily.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on May 6, 2006 2:35 PM EDT reply actions

Well...

What would be crazier would be if he went .372, 42 HR and 147 RBI. Because then he'd be Todd Helton circa 2000 at age 26/27.

by williethekid20 on May 6, 2006 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Question

So you see him with a cup of coffee in September but then only 143 AB in 2007? Do you think they'll start him next year in AAA?

by delmonfan on May 6, 2006 2:56 PM EDT reply actions

2007

Well, supposedly (at least according to BA) the Rocks don't expect Stewart to be ready until midseason 2007.

by John Sickels on May 6, 2006 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

PS

I love that 48 double / 28 HR season in 2011. I think there's always a possibility of both higher BB and higher K rates.

by delmonfan on May 6, 2006 2:58 PM EDT reply actions

Stats

I'm fairly new to this site, but is there a reason you don't predict OBP and SLG as well? It's really hard to say how good a player is without those. Well, I know we could calculate SLG% from the numbers you give and get a rough estimate of OBP%, but it would be a lot easier and less tedious to just put columns for those two stats, no?

by deltabourne on May 6, 2006 3:09 PM EDT reply actions

OBP

Well, OBP has to include stuff like HB and would involve a calculation of plate appearances rather than just AB. For the purpose of what the Crystal Ball is supposed to be (a starting point for discussion), that's more work than it is worth.

by John Sickels on May 6, 2006 3:11 PM EDT reply actions

I see

OK, I see. Now onto Stewart's stats... 141 RBIs for the Rockies at 28? I know Tejada had a ton of RBIs for a poor Orioles team but they were at least good offensively - will the Rockies lineup be good enough to give Stewart a shot at so many 100 RBI seasons?

by deltabourne on May 6, 2006 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Rockies Lineup 2013

Dexter Fowler - CF
Troy Tulowitzki - SS
Ian Stewart - 3B
Garrett Atkins - 1B
Brad Hawpe - RF
??? - LF
Chris Iannetta
Corey Wimberly? Matt Macri?

I think the main thing is with Tulo and Fowler, the Rockies definitely should have tablesetters at the top of their lineup. Wimberly might work out as a leadoff if Fowler doesn't, but Tulo alone will provide Ian a lot of chances.

by Rox Girl on May 6, 2006 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I would like to think

he would hit more HR in Coors than you have him. He should hit over 35 at least once.

by Ienpw on May 6, 2006 3:49 PM EDT reply actions

The home run factor...

in Coors is something like 1.24, which is high, but not as high as it used to be. Don't know when, but some time in the past few years, the Rockies moved back the fences....enough to reduce home runs, although I think doubles & triples (& singles) have since skyrocketed.

by Azteca on May 8, 2006 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Stew

Those numbers look really good.... if he wasn't in Coors. He should produce at least a few 35-40 HR seasons in Coors. And from the looks of it, I'd say those are Hall worthy #'s.

by ISC on May 6, 2006 7:15 PM EDT reply actions

agree on the homers thing

I mean dude hit 30 bombs in 2004, sure it was A ball, but if you are projecting him to be able to produce like that, then you have assume he at least hits in the 30 HR range which means he gets a couple 40 seasons from age and that park.

I mean all these projections have the caveats that they don't fall off the face of the earth, so while I think he can peak a bit higher (in the power dept) it is all contingent on him getting it together.

...unless I am missing something and that affiliate has ridiculous HR splits, which I don't think it does.

by aclax2k on May 6, 2006 7:58 PM EDT reply actions

In the class of

These career numbers put Stewert in the class of:

Tony Perez - .279-379-1652, 9778 at bats
Gary Gaetti - .255-360-1341, 8951 at bats
Vinny Castilla - .278-315-1078, 6547 at bats
Ron Santo - .277-342-1331, 8143 at bats

and other than career home runs, similar also to:

Mike Schmidt - .267-548-1595, 8352 at bats

and going outside the realm of third basemen, consider:

Al Kaline - .297-399-1583, 1277 bb, 1020 k, 10116 at bats (about two-plus extra seasons).

This is near a best-case scenario for Stewart - the best case has reaching the 30-home run mark with more regularity and has him playing full-time in 2007, and extending his career to age 40, thus moving into the 425-450 home run range.

by craige on May 6, 2006 10:13 PM EDT reply actions

AVG

Stewart hitting for a higher average than Kendrick? Coors and all, I think the .370 is a little high, especially when you were conservative with Howie.

http://www.treasuretrooper.com/32645

by brandnew on May 7, 2006 12:25 AM EDT reply actions

yeah

I agree. I can see Steward hitting +.350 one or two years, but I can see Kendrick maintaining that pace for 5 years.

by Azteca on May 8, 2006 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

i really like the crystal balls, but...

...since most prospects don't make it big, it's a little too easy to say "overly optimistic", since you know you'll be right most of the time. Of course all these superstar minor leaguers/prospects look like they're going to hit it big in the majors, but reality (and history) tells us otherwise.

by sabernar on May 7, 2006 10:10 AM EDT reply actions

Coors

Coors helps average more than homers these days since the fences have been moved back and the whole humidor thing... So i disagree with anyone who has the notion that it's a given Ian should be penciled in for 40 bombs every year. But I did expect to see one or two more 30 jack seasons in the CB. Maybe some more Ks too.

"I may not be a class act, but I'm an American." Ron Artest on wanting to play for the Olympic team

by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on May 7, 2006 10:44 AM EDT reply actions