Jeremy Guthrie... back as a prospect?
I'd basically forgotten about Guthrie after his past few years. After dominating the Eastern League, he blew up in Buffalo. He'd gotten a few courtesy looks by the Indians, but it looked as though the prospect label was officially off of him.
This spring, there were some positive rumblings and he got an early call to Cleveland to try and help their bullpen. I was browsing through the minor league stats yesterday and came across his line for the season:
3-0, 0.53 ERA, 6 GS, 34 IP, 24 H, 10 BB, 25 K, 2 R
Even more impressive are his stats over his past three starts and getting sent down from Cleveland back to Buffalo. The past three starts go as follows:
6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 4 K, 1 BB
5 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 7 K, 3 BB
5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 5 K, 2 BB
The innings are a little low, but I'm guessing that he is re-gaining arm strength after stagnating in the Indians bullpen for a month. What is the difference in him now as compared to the past few years? Is it purely mental, or has their been some mechanical change? I cannot find any real information on him, or at least his recent surge.
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Trade bait
How about Guthrie, Marte, and something else to Florida for Dontrelle?
Just kidding :-)
by Torncuff on May 29, 2006 2:05 PM EDT reply actions
I sure hope he's back
Just kidding.
He has underperformed for a couple years now. Maybe it is time for him to average that out a little bit.
I haven't seen or heard of any "real" reason why he is now getting batters out.
by doubledribble @ Minor League Ball on May 29, 2006 7:39 PM EDT reply actions
I saw him once on a ESPN game
He came out of the pen throwing 95-96 with great movement to the (right) arm side, which may or may not been generated by him throwing his front shoulder out a bit quick. Vicious little breaing ball (slider?) going away and down.
Then you look at his stats and you see the issue. 11.2 IP 11 H 9 BB 9 K. He's got the stuff; he needs better sommand. With his velocity and movement you are going to get alot of pitches taken so if he can't get it over early in the count he's in trouble.
by Torncuff on May 30, 2006 8:22 AM EDT reply actions
Why Guthrie has performed better!
Listening to Mike Hessman, a reporter with the Buffalo News, this is how he explained Guthrie's reemergence as a "prospect" (older prospect, granted, but don't forget, he was on a Mormon mission for 2 years, so I think the "prospect" label could still be applied to him in his case despite his being 27 years old.):
Jeremy Guthrie was blowing through hitters at Akron that first time around by pitching up in the zone and thought he could do the same thing at Buffalo. That didn't work; this resulted in him losing confidence and losing his mechanics as he tried several mechanic adjustments to be able to thrive at AAA.
Nothing worked. Then, in 2005, he started to realize that he needed to keep the ball down in the strike zone. Despite an ERA over 5, he was starting to make progress and his starts became better as the season went into the final few months.
This year, he's been lights out for Buffalo, and as Torncuff mentioned, his velocity increased - I think he even hit 98 MPH on one pitch, which I never knew he could reach. He still has to be a bit more consistent at the ML level, but with the way he has progressed since the second half of 2003, he has made significant progress from where he was and I really believe he can make a significant contribution to the Indians in the years to come.
I'm not sure whether he would be better as a starter or a reliever, but with those numbers as a starter, I'd really like to give him a chance to start first before shifting him to the bullpen if he can't handle a ML starting role.
With the way the rotation has been after C.C., I think there could be enough room for Guthrie, Sowers, and even Carmona (Johnson almost certainly will be removed eventually; Westbrook is regressing and might need a shift to the bullpen or even another team; Byrd is inconsistent and might be worthwhile trade bait if the Indians don't make a run in the last 2/3 of the season, and even Lee could maybe use some relief appearances to get himself straightened out as he hasn't been good virtually the whole year, and especially in May.)
Therefore, I hope Guthrie gets a chance to start, though I was impressed with his bullpen work as well - he was considerably better than Mota and I had a little more confidence in him than in Jason Davis because Guthrie didn't seem to implode like Davis did once or twice. Guthrie gave up a few hits, but usually kept the opposing team from mounting an inning where they could score.
Torncuff - you are correct on his slider - some compared it to Mike Mussina's, though Mussina's is more of a 12-to-6 slider, whereas Guthrie's is more of an 11-to-5 slider, but can still be nasty like Mussina's if he can place it in a good location.
Take care and keep the "faith"!

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