Pedroia status

by roaddog on May 23, 2006 1:52 PM EDT

Sox fans: What's Pedroia's status? Very quiet on the Dustin front lately. How's he doing and what's been going on with him?

In a not so related/un-related topic: What are the thoughts about Renyel Pinto? Followed his up and down minors a little, some promise there but some questions too. Ends up a LOOGY+?

Also Ronnie Paulino and the Pirates C situation over the next couple years? Pretty decent work behind the plate so far. Some promise with the bat. Wondering a little though given minor stats and lack of power so far MLB may lead to eventual BA pull back). Prior to the season, I would have said Walker ends up switching position with Doumit holding the job for a couple of years and Paulino as the backup. Now its starting to get muddier. That organization doesn't have the best track record when it comes to handling young guys. With Doumit scuffling, is Ronnie really making a push to keep the gig full time? A couple breaks (or less hasty moves) and the Pirates could have done a Marlinsesk rise. Still some hope (say, more than the Royals anyway), but ownership still concerns me. Cuban on the other hand...that could be interesting.

There...that's 300+.

Thoughts: Pedroia, Pinto, Paulino/Doumit & the Pirates' org?

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Pedroia

Dustin suffered a minor injury in spring training and missed the first couple weeks of the season, but came back about a month ago and has been playing OK: .241/.336/.339 at AAA Pawtucket.

He is still showing plate discipline, with more walks than Ks, but he just isn't hitting the ball very hard right now.

He has been playing both 2b and SS, and his defense has been decent at both positions. There is little doubt that he could step in and hit better than either Cora or Gonzalez at the MLB level, but I think the best thing for him would be to get in a full year at AAA.

by SmokeyJoeWood on May 23, 2006 2:13 PM EDT reply actions

I dont know...

... that I would call .241/.336/.339 even OK for a supposedly top 2B prospect. The good plate discipline will help bring those numbers up a bit, but he better turn it on at some point soon.

by grozzy on May 23, 2006 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Contact Rate

He strikes out so rarely that I don't it's possible to maintain such a low batting average unless he's going to first base in a wheelchair.

He's making contact but the results haven't been there; it's probably some combination of unluck + less power than expected. In the end he'll probably be hitting closer to .280 and getting on base at a very good rate. The power stuff I'm not so sure of (see below).

by FI @ Minor League Ball on May 23, 2006 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Response

Contact rate alone can be deceiving. His low slugging percentage indicates that while he's hitting the ball, he doesn't seem to be hitting it particularly well. If that doesn't change, the batting average isn't going to see the kind of increase that you're talking about.

It is very possible to have a high contact rate with a low batting average. It may be that his lack of power is being exploited by aggressive Triple A pitchers and that his average is suffering as a result. He may rebound significantly, he may rebound moderately, and he may not rebound at all. Not sure where I stand on this right now.

by mrkupe on May 23, 2006 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Stats To The Rescue!

This is where the ability to check his BABIP would come in pretty handy, as well as LD%. Every hitter goes through slumps where they are hitting the ball well... right at defenders. It's far from impossible that this is happening to Pedroia. Or he could legitimately be sucking, possibly as a result of the lingering effects of his injury (what was his injury, anyway?).

by NBarnes on May 23, 2006 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Well

Considering Pedroia doesn't strike out much (and therefore puts the ball in play most of the time), BABIP really isn't all that useful here other than giving a good approximation of what his BA looks like.

We need to look at quality of contact more than anything else. It should be noted that he appears to be hitting a LOT of ground balls rather than flyballs, which says a lot about how well he's hitting the ball.

http://www.angelfire.com/nb/jms/milb/PawIL.html#Dustin+Pedroia
gets the credit for this info.

by mrkupe on May 23, 2006 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow....

... look at that ugly vLHP split. The Home/Road split is interesting too. Not saying its relavent (sample size) but Im curious how he has hit against lefties his entire career.

by grozzy on May 23, 2006 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

small sample size, small sample size, small...

Pedroia hit 326 vs. lefties at Pawtcuket last year.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on May 23, 2006 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Some corrections

"It is very possible to have a high contact rate with a low batting average."

mrkupe - I wouldn't call it "very possible". In the International League, hitters' BABIP tend to regress towards the .310-.315 mean over time (this is very robust) and right now Pedroia's hovering below .270. His LD% is just a hair below the league average at 17%. He's had some bad luck and that won't last forever.

I would say a rebound in batting average is almost certain, but I'm just not sure how much power to expect from him.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on May 23, 2006 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions

The Bat

I'm worried about lingering effects from last year's wrist injury. Sometimes it takes a while to recover from that kind of injury and the little bit of power he showed last year is gone.

He can still be a very decent player with his ability to make contact and patience at the plate, but the only question seemed to be whether he will hit closer to 8 or 18 HR per season in his prime. That would be the difference between an Eckstein- and a Giles-like career.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on May 23, 2006 2:35 PM EDT reply actions

Pedroia

I'm thinking his poor play so far is a mixture between a little bit of bad luck and some lingering effects of the injury. He seems to be hitting the ball fairly well, although it is a small sample size. I'm thinking his situation is somewhat like Andy LaRoche's has been this year. he's not striking out and still walking a lot, but the hits just haven't been falling. I would expect that he comes out of this funk in the next month or so and if he doesn't, maybe then we have something to worry about.

by neutralluke on May 23, 2006 6:08 PM EDT reply actions

BABIP

I haven't seen Pedroia play at all this year to know how much sting he's been putting on the ball.

I'll just say that a low BABIP isn't always unlucky and undeserved. If a batter is hitting weak grounders or lazy flys with regularity his BABIP will be low and he's got nothing to blame but himself. Having a high contact rate isn't enough. You have to hit the ball with some sting too. Neifi Perez has very good contact rate and has only struck out once every ABs in his career... the fact his stats suck is not unlucky BABIP.

"I may not be a class act, but I'm an American." Ron Artest on wanting to play for the Olympic team

by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on May 24, 2006 9:35 AM EDT reply actions

babip

That's absolutely correct, but even Neifi's BABIP over the past few years is only 20 points below the league average.
In Pedroia's case, his BABIP was so far below the league average and his hit types were close enough to average that I have to assume some bad luck was a factor in his low batting average (though not necessarily the only factor).

As it turns out, he has two double and a triple in his last 8 at bats, so I think his cumulative stats will start looking more in line with his abilities soon.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on May 24, 2006 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Pedroia continuing to improve

Pedroia is quietly hitting .356 with a .511 SLG during the month of June. His power has incrementally improved as the season has progressed, so I think it has something to do with him regaining strength in his wrists.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Jun 13, 2006 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions