Regarding Scott Lewis, the Indians are still very high on him, but have been cautious with him because he has had arm soreness in the past.  I'm not sure if I heard he had had a minor case of arm soreness this year or not.

I believe you are correct when you say that he had TJ surgery - I believe he did right after he was taken in the draft or somewhere around that time period.  

I think his upside is quite high, as those are very good numbers even for a 22-year old in High-A.  I think the question will be whether he can overcome his early career injuries.  If he can show that he can stay healthy and endure the rigors of a starting role, then I think he could be at least a #2 starter, maybe even a #1.

If his body can't withstand the rigors of a starting role, then probably he will be shifted to the bullpen in the near future.  With his stuff and experience, he probably could be a dominant lefty set-up man or even a closer down the road.

My guess is that if he can continue on this current torrid pace, he will probably be at AA Akron during the second half of 2006.

Just my 2 cents. :-)  John, what do you think?

Take care and have a great weekend!

No offense, but no, it doesn't surprise me that you're not as optimistic as I am, LOL!  :-)

However, jasvlm asked what Lewis' upside is.  Right now, and granted, it's early and a small sample size for this year, but I think it's reasonable to say that he could be a frontline starter - more than a #3.  

Granted, A-ball will not challenge Scott Lewis, but A-ball doesn't challenge a lot of college-trained pitchers and many of them don't put up the ridiculous K numbers and low BB numbers that Scott Lewis has put up (see the comparison to Twins' hot pitching prospect Matt Garza below for one example.)  

As Ryan of LetsGoTribe.com put it, those are cartoonish numbers.  Therefore, I don't think it's a stretch to think that, right now, he could be a #2 or even a #1.  It remains to be seen if he will fulfill that potential, partly because he hasn't reached AA yet, partly because of his past injury risk.  But I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility by any means.

At worst, I think he can be a dominant reliever or closer in the future - from the reports I've read and heard, he has above-average stuff, which gives me confidence that he is more than a back-of-the-rotation starter at this point.  

Like you said, he's not without injury-risk, but not every college-trained starter dominates High-A like he has either (again, see below.)  Potentially, he could be a #1 or #2; that doesn't mean he will become that, but I think his ceiling could be that high.  

We just have to wait and see if he can reach it or not, but I certainly think he's better than a #3 at this point and I don't think that's an overstatement on his ability.  

If I recall correctly, he had TJ surgery before he was drafted, yet was still taken in the 3rd-round by the Indians because of his potential.  I also seem to recall that he could have been and probably would have been a first-rounder based on his talent if not for the TJ surgery.  

That sounds like more than a #3 to me and I don't see anything in his limited performances why his ceiling should be lowered, outside of the possibility of his not being able to handle a starting role in the Majors due to his past injury history.  At this point, I still think his ceiling could be a #1 or #2.

Someone on this site mentioned Matt Garza the other day, the Twins' hot pitching prospect who has done quite well and was just promoted to AA.  Some have even suggested him possibly being a Top 10 pitching prospect when the end-of-the-year rankings come out.  I presume by that that his ceiling is more of a #1 or #2 starter.

I thought he would be a good guy to compare to Lewis because they're both 22-23 years old (both were born in the second half of 1983, Lewis being about 3 months older than Garza.)  

Here are Garza's High-A numbers at Fort Myers (FSL):

5-1, 1.42 ERA, 8 G, 8 GS, 44.1 IP, 27 H, 13 R, 7 ER, 3 HRs, 11 BBs, 53 Ks

5.49 H/9 IP, 2.25 BBs/9 IP, 10.82 K/9 IP, 0.86 WHIP

Here are Lewis' High-A numbers at Kinston (CAR):

1-1, 0.56 ERA, 8 G, 7 GS, 32.0 IP, 21 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 0 HRs, 3 BBs, 45 Ks

5.91 H/9 IP, 0.84 BBs/9 IP, 12.66 K/9 IP, 0.75 WHIP

I don't know about Garza's ceiling, but if Garza is going to be considered for a spot in the Top 10 Pitching Prospects, I would have to think he has the ceiling of a #1 or #2 starter at this point.  

As you can see, I think Lewis' ceiling is comparable, as he is just behind Garza in terms of H/9 IP, and has a better BB/9 IP, K/9 IP, and WHIP at the same level, though I think many would consider the Carolina League a better place to hit because many of the FSL ballparks are pitchers' parks because they're so large, which makes Lewis' credentials even more impressive in my opinion.

Granted, Lewis is in his third year in the Indians' organization, whereas Garza's only in his second with the Twins, but Lewis only made 3 appearances (3 starts) in 2004.  Therefore, he's really not that much more advanced than Garza in terms of experience, yet I think has matched Garza pretty well to this point.  

Like I said, I don't know if most consider Garza a #1 or #2, but when I heard that some would consider him as a Top 10 pitching prospect, I would have to think he has a #1 or #2 ceiling, so I think it's reasonable to think that Lewis has that same type of ceiling at this point based on the comparable numbers he has put up at High-A.

That doesn't mean he'll reach it, but I certainly think he has that #1 or #2 ceiling at this point.

Therefore, as of right now, I certainly think Lewis' ceiling is as a #1 or #2 starter.  If you wish to be cautious with him and reduce his ceiling because of his injury history, that's one thing.  But his performance to this point has not lowered his ceiling in my opinion.  As you mentioned, we need to see what he does at AA (probably later this year,) but as of right now, Lewis has a #1 or #2 ceiling in my opinion.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great weekend!  

I may be a bit optimistic about #1 especially, but I don't think #2 is totally out of the question, especially if Lewis throws 90-94 MPH like I thought he did.  That's certainly above-average velocity, especially for a lefty.

That's what I was basing my ceiling as a #1 or #2.  If he's throwing less than that, then a #3 or #4 is probably more likely.  Admittedly, I have not heard what his velocity is for sure, but at last report (middle to late last year,) I thought I heard he was throwing well again in the low-90s.  

I agree that AA and AAA will tell us more, but like I said, other good pitching prospects have gone through High-A and not put up the numbers that Lewis has done; that's why I think his ceiling could be higher than most pitching prospects.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

By the way, mrkupe, I did not mean to imply you don't look at the numbers - I'm sorry if you got that impression.  Granted, you have to take into account his size, his conditioning, and his mechanics, etc., though just because you're small doesn't mean you can't be a good pitcher - look at Pedro Martinez as one example (and no, I'm not saying Lewis is another Pedro Martinez.)  

However, most scouts and experts look at what these pitching prospects have produced on the field to determine what their ceilings are, in combination with their mechanics and their injury history, and to this point, the only thing you can say negatively about Lewis' stats is the fact that he hasn't thrown that many innings because he's had injuries and injury-concerns throughout his career.  

When he has gotten out on the mound, he's done what you'd expect him to, and then some, because not all college or highly-touted pitching prospects put up the numbers in High-A that he has done - his H/9 IP, BB rate and K rate, even at High-A, are not the norm for more experienced pitching prospects.

That's the major reason why I think he COULD BE a frontline starter (that doesn't mean he will or something won't happen to him that could lower his ceiling, but as of right now, I think a #1 or #2 is not out of the question yet.)

Just my 5 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great Sunday!

Hello mrkupe and pedrophile,

Unfortunately, I wrote a sizable answer to virtually all your points, but it was lost because my Internet connection failed and I pressed the "post" button without realizing that I was no longer connected - I wish that you could get that post when you do that (it's happened to me a few times,) but I haven't been able to by hitting "Back" or "Refresh."  If you know how to get back a post that you tried to post, but it failed because of a lost Internet connection - please let me know - thanks!

I'll give a quick summary on my counterpoints:

I agree with you both that sabermetrics and scouting is the best way to go, but keep in mind that most fans aren't able to scout players - they have statistics to go on.  Granted, stats don't tell you everything, but that's the basis of what most fans use to get an idea of their organization's prospects.

That doesn't mean that the stats paint the whole picture, but that's what gives fan a general idea of their prospects.

I realize that body type, movement on the fastball, adjustments they make, whether they are high school or college draftees, where they played high school and college ball is important, etc., so statistics aren't everything, but they are important, nevertheless.

mrkupe - Regarding Garza and Lewis, this comment here raises a question:

"Nobody put Matt Garza in their top ten pitching prospects because he dominated A ball, it's nice but not totally unexpected. A LOT of people put Matt Garza in their top ten pitching prospects because he's a durable guy who not only knows how to pitch, but knows how to pitch with good stuff."

Maybe you didn't mean to imply this, but it sounds to me like you're saying that Garza knows how to pitch, but Lewis doesn't.  I really don't see how you can say that Garza knows how to and imply that Lewis doesn't when you look at what both accomplished at the same level - Lewis' numbers were slightly better overall at High-A.

While Garza has done well in his first two AA starts, it's way too small a sample size to get an accurate reading at this point.

With that said, the way the Indians continue to use Lewis for 4 IP at a time (even in the last week,) it's probably likelier that he will become a reliever unless he gets stretched out at some point.  I think the Indians are being extremely cautious with him to make sure he stays healthy, but the fact that they continue to use him to start games may point to the fact that they still believe he can be an effective starter at the ML level.

I'm not sure if Garza throws in the low-90s or the mid-90s; if he throws in the mid-90s, then I think he has an advantage over Lewis in terms of being more overpowering; if it's the low-90s, I think their velocities are comparable, especially if Lewis is throwing in the low-90s again.

If you have a site where you can get information on their body types, what they throw, and how much movement their fastballs have, I'm "all ears."  :-)

As far as I know though, Lewis probably has some good movement on his fastball also; eventually, High-A hitters can hit straight fastballs too.

While a projection of Lewis being a #1 or #2 may be a bit optimistic (I was really thinking more #2 than #1 at this point, by the way, based on the assumption that he is throwing regularly in the low-90s; if he's throwing less than that, then I would think more of a #3 or #4-type ceiling.) I still think it's possible for him to be a #2, though I agree with you that AA will truly tell us more on whether he could possibly fill that slot or not.

pedrophile - I remember Chris George; while he was a good pitching prospect, I'm not sure he ever had the pinpoint command of four pitches like Sowers has.  

That, and the fact that the Royals have had trouble developing prospects, especially pitching prospects, over the last 10 years or so.  The Indians' track record is considerably better, which gives me more hope that Sowers will be more successful than George.

Case in point:  Look at Jeremy Affledt - had better stuff than George, but he hasn't developed either, as a starter or as a reliever.  Why?  Partly it was the injuries and partly it was that Affledt never truly had great command, but I would have to think with all the other cases of failed pitching prospects that the Royals' organizational development has something to do with it as well.

Therefore, I still give Sowers a better chance than George to succeed.  While a higher K rate would be nice, there are several pitchers in the Majors who don't have high K rates who do quite well in the Majors.  Sowers' above-average to excellent command should enable him to do quite well even with a low K rate.  

Plus, he's usually pretty tidy with his pitch counts, so he may be a bit similar to Carmona in that they both go more for the groundout than the strikeout - I think if they have good enough command, they can survive and even thrive at the ML level.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Sorry for the delayed, abbreviated response, but I have something important to take care of for about the next week, so I may not be able to respond right away.  Feel free to reply though - I'll make sure to read it, and even reply, at some point in the near future.  Thanks!

Take care and have a great day!

Sorry - a mistake in the first paragraph of my last post; it was supposed to say (see the all caps words,)

"Unfortunately, I wrote a sizable answer to virtually all your points, but it was lost because my Internet connection failed and I pressed the "post" button without realizing that I was no longer connected - I wish that you could get THE POST BACK when you do that (it's happened to me a few times,) but I haven't been able to by hitting "Back" or "Refresh."  If you know how to get back a post that you tried to post, but it failed because of a lost Internet connection - please let me know - thanks!"

Take care and have a great day!