Prospect Smackdown: Mike Pelfrey vs. Phillip Hughes

by John Sickels on May 18, 2006 1:28 PM EDT in News Comment 19 comments

BACKGROUND and INTANGIBLES
Mike Pelfrey: Mike Pelfrey was drafted in the first round last year out of Wichita State University. Many clubs thought he was the best college pitcher available in the draft, but he fell to ninth overall due to worries about his bonus demands. It took the Mets until January '06, but they did manage to sign him. Pelfrey was excellent for three seasons for Wichita State. He showed occasional nervousness and lack of confidence as a high school pitcher, but matured into a stalwart competitor in college.
Phillip Hughes: Phillip Hughes was drafted in the first round in 2004, out of high school in Santa Ana, California. Although picked at 23rd overall, many clubs thought he was the best high school pitcher in the draft, but shied away from high school pitchers in favor of college guys that season. Hughes is extremely mature for his years, with a reputation for thriving under pressure.
Advantage: Comparing a college pitcher with a high school guy is problematic. Hughes was more mature than Pelfrey at the same age, but Pelfrey has certainly proven his mound "intangibles" in college. You can call this even I think.

PHYSICALITY and TOOLS
Mike Pelfrey: Pelfrey is a righthanded hitter and thrower, born January 14, 1984. He is listed at 6-7, 210 pounds. His fastball has been clocked as high as 97 MPH, working consistently at 92-94 MPH. His changeup is above average. He made great strides with his curveball in college, giving him three offerings that are at least major league average and often better. His command is very good for a power pitcher, and he has a good feel for changing speeds and throwing strikes, at least compared to most power arms. He does the little things well, and is very polished overall. He has had no injury problems worth mentioning.
Phillip Hughes: Hughes is a righthanded hitter and thrower, born June 24, 1986, listed at 6-5, 220 pounds. His fastball can hit 96 MPH and is consistent at 91-93, though his velocity has reportedly increased a bit this year. He has two breaking balls, a strong slider and a strong curveball, both with the potential to be above average. He also has a good changeup. His command is outstanding, and like Pelfrey he has a great feel for his craft. Hughes has had nagging injuries as a pro, including a sore shoulder in 2005 and a sore elbow in 2004. None of these are considered major by themselves, but in the aggregate they lead to unavoidable concerns about his stamina.
Advantage: Pelfrey throws a bit harder right now, but he's older and has had more time to mature physically. Both have good breaking balls and changeups. Both have sharp command for power pitchers. Both are very polished. Pelfrey has been more durable so far, and overall I will give Pelfrey a slight edge here for that reason.

PERFORMANCE
Mike Pelfrey: Pelfrey went 2-1, 1.64 in four starts for St. Lucie to begin his pro career, with a 26/2 K/BB ratio in 22 innings. Promoted to Double-A, he is 0-1, 4.15 in four starts, with a 24/9 K/BB in 22 innings.
Phillip Hughes: Hughes came into 2006 with a career mark of 9-1, 2.07 in 91 innings, with a 101/20 K/BB. He started this year going 2-3, 1.80 in five starts for Tampa, with a 30/2 K/BB in 30 innings. Promoted to Double-A, he is 0-1, 3.71 in three starts, with a 13/7 K/BB in 17 innings.
Advantage: Hughes has more of a pro track record to go on at this point, though you can't ignore Pelfrey's outstanding pitching in college. This year, their numbers were extremely similar in the Florida State League, with Pelfrey perhaps having a slight edge. Hughes has been slightly more effective in Double-A, but given their sample sizes none of this means much. Bottom line: both dominated A-ball, both have been adequate in Double-A. Overall I call it even.

PROJECTION
Mike Pelfrey: Pelfrey projects as a number one starter at the major league level, a rotation anchor.
Phillip Hughes: Hughes projects as a number one starter at the major league level, a rotation anchor.
Advantage: Hughes is younger and has more classic projection just due to his birthday. Slight edge for Hughes.

SUMMARY
I knew this one would be close, and it is.
They rate as even on background and intangibles, different but even.
I think Pelfrey has a slight edge in physicality and tools.
They look even to me in performance.
Hughes is younger so he has more "projection."

I guess it is a matter of taste. For me, I really worry about Hughes' durability, so today I think I will put Pelfrey just a tad higher. I might change my mind tomorrow.

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Comments

Finally!

The Mets and Yanks coming up with some stud pitchers at the same time. It will be great to watch them throughout their careers across the way.

Personally, I like Pelfrey due to his overall size and the fact that he may pack on some more muscle as he matures...but with that said 6'5 and 220 is no slouch...

by akk99 on May 18, 2006 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

nice breakdown

very close, best smackdown in a while...however the next question is, when do you expect to see these two reach the majors? will pelfrey be called upon now that it seems like brian bannister will miss an extended period and jose lima has been less than impressive for a 3rd consecutive start? and brian cashman stated that he'd prefer to give hughes the full season in the minors but that he won't hold him down if he forces his way up...or is he going to be traded before then for torii hunter or bobby abreu since it looks like eric duncan is trying his best to lose his "blue-chip" status?

by robcast23 on May 18, 2006 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd be shocked if Pelfrey...

...doesn't come up this year. Particularly with the injuries the Mets have in the rotation at the moment; it could really be sooner rather than later.

On the flip side, I'd be surprised if Hughes gets above AA this year. It's possible, if he really dominates, that he hits AAA at the end of the season, but I really think the Yankees don't want to rush him--he is still a teenager after all. I'd say he makes an impact with the big club next year at age 20.

by SirCaptain on May 18, 2006 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Phil Hughes

I think it's very unlikely that Hughes is traded. The last impact prospect that the Yankees traded was Dioner Navarro two offseasons ago and the organization seems to love the guy (understandably so). I also don't think there's any chance he'll see the majors this year, though. 2007, he has a good shot.

Anyway, I picked Hughes before I saw this smackdown because he's doing the same thing at the same level as Pelfrey while being two years younger. I guess it's preference, though... projectability (Hughes) vs. closer to the majors (Pelfrey.)

However, if Phil gets through this year with no injuries, I think he's got to be the better prospect.

by Stephcaflowne on May 18, 2006 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They're very close

and both outstanding prospects. I'm not too concerned about Phil's health, and consequently have to pick him. If he throws 150 innings this year, I think he vies for top pitching prospect in the majors next year.

by SirCaptain on May 18, 2006 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Flags

I put Pelfrey ahead by a healthy margin. I do think Hughes has the higher ceiling, but Pelfrey's a little further along the injury nexus, and Hughes just can't seem to stay on the field; considering how quickly he's been shut down in the past, and how good the Yanks publicists have been about prospects in the past (i.e. they seem to have a higher flameout rate than most other teams, which I attribute to having good publicity people), I think the nature of his problems are a bit more serious than we've been led to believe.

"If there wasn't nine guys out in the field, I'd have a hit every time except when I strike out." - Delmon Young

by Brickhaus on May 18, 2006 3:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Disagree

I don't agree the injuries Hughes has had has NOT been all that serious. I think he'll be just fine. I have both of these guys on my dynasty team and Ive thought of Pelfrey being higher on my list but, it's nice to see what Mr. Sickels thinks of Hughes.

by nate050904 on May 18, 2006 4:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cool

Hughes and I share the same birthday. And I'm a Yankees fan.

by OneHitWonder on May 18, 2006 4:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hughes

I like his secondary stuff better than Pelfrey, so I'll have to go with Hughes. He's also younger and very mature.

by 12to6 on May 18, 2006 10:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's Tomorrow....

Change your mind, yet? Haha. I kid.

Nonetheless, both pitchers are almost the same. How they're so close is scary. I guess it depends on how seriously you think Hughes' injuries are. With only seven AA starts between the two, can't go on that. They both dominated in HighA this season, and Hughes last year. So, both are clearly ready for a bigger challenge. I have to take Hughes' age into account, though. 2.5 years younger, and you could argue he has slighty better off-speed pitches. IMO, if Hughes didn't have his nagging injuries, it's a no brainer. But, if they both pan out, New York has two great pitchers to follow for the future. Should be fun.

by Tabata Time on May 19, 2006 2:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hughes easily...

his offspeed stuff is worlds ahead from what I've seen.

I don't like Pelfrey's breaking balls. From what I've seen the pitch is a below average major league pitch, though I've only seen him in spring training.

by SenorGato88 on May 19, 2006 2:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

His curveball is passable against righties, but I have no idea how he's going to throw the thing against lefties. It should be noted that he's gotten smoked by lefties this year, not just in the Eastern League but in the FSL (.364 BAA).

I don't really get all the rage about Pelfrey. I think his fastball is a great pitch, nice velocity with good movement and top-notch command, but I don't see much else there to get excited about. His curve doesn't do much for me. I've barely heard anything about his change this year other than that he apparently doesn't use it that much, and even the scouting reports I've seen on it indicate that it's pretty much average.

by mrkupe on May 20, 2006 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Odd...

You must have missed or ignored this part of John's scouting report then:

"His changeup is above average. He made great strides with his curveball in college, giving him three offerings that are at least major league average and often better."

by MetfanBren on May 20, 2006 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

curve

I had very positive reports about Pelfrey's curve in college last year and it looked good to me when I saw him. However, that doesn't mean it doesn't need more work. The splits vs. LH (which I did not check) bear close watching. This could end up being an issue, we will see.

by John Sickels on May 20, 2006 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

I neither missed nor ignored it. John has his own, very educated opinion, which I respect. That doesn't mean I repress my own thoughts and opinions.

I've seen his change described as both average and above average in different reports. In any case, it doesn't seem that he's using the pitch very much these days, so I really can't think that he's making much progress with it. My opinion remains the same on his curveball. I think it's a show-me pitch rather than an effective weapon for him right now, especially against lefties. A while back somebody noted to me after watching some tape of Pelfrey that they thought he would have issues with lefties, and scouting reports on him mirrored some of the same concerns. The limited pro statistical record on Pelfrey so far isn't easing my mind with this.

I wouldn't mind letting the guy pitch out of a major league bullpen right now while he refines his secondary pitches and incorporates them into his approach a little better, which says a lot about what I think of his fastball, but he's got a lot of work to do before I'll buy into the high-end projections for him.

by mrkupe on May 22, 2006 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pelfrey...

Only lasted 0.2IP tonight. 2H 2R 0ER 3BB 1K and was pulled. Anyone know why?

And from the couple threads I've seen on the Scout.com Mets' message board, they've said that Pelfrey's offspeed stuff is far too inconsistent and that he relies on his fastball too much. I've never seen him pitch but from what I hear and read, Pelfrey has a lot of work to do.

by Tabata Time on May 21, 2006 3:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh...

and I wanted to say it doesn't seem I'm the only one. Many reports on Pelfrey say he has work to do on tightening his curveball.

by SenorGato88 on May 19, 2006 2:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

please post some sources

I'm always looking for good scouting sources on minor league players (in addition to John's book, that is).

by akk99 on May 19, 2006 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Point taken on Pelfrey....

Pelfrey's secondary stuff is a concern of course, but you have to look into his numbers at AA more. He's struggled against Altoona and Akron, two teams that are older and more experienced then most others in the Eastern League (Altoona's youngest hitter was 24, and the lineup included two 29 year olds). He's allowed 32 hits and 12 BB's in 22.1 innings. I believe only 4 or 5 of those hits have been XBH's however, and he's yet to allow a HR as a pro. So obviously these teams took a common approach to Pelfrey, taking the walks and singles rather than trying to kill the ball. This is obviously what he'll have to adjust to, and getting ahead in the count consistently seems like the obvious way to start..

I'm not sure how much this plays into all of this, but I'm wishing the Mets had given the AA Manager job to Gary Carter, rather than Juan Samuel. Maybe they thought he was so advanced that it wouldn't matter, but the credentials of the two when it comes to pitching are light years apart. Carter has a St. Lucie team with little talent in first place in the FSL presently by the way...

For now Soler was the obvious and correct choice, and Pelfrey should probably spend most of the year in the minors, if not all. They're looking for good things from Soler of course, but the risk/reward factor in possibly rushing him is a lot lower than it is for Pelfrey. Either way the Mets will still be relying greatly on the offense and bullpen...

Also, Lime-time being euthanized might be the best thing that could've happened to Pelfrey. All of the people who say he couldn't be worse don't get it. They don't want him to be better than Jose Lima right now, they want him to be an ace for the next 10-15 years. If that means watching Lima or Gonzales some more then so be it...

by MetfanBren on May 22, 2006 11:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs