Prospect Retro: Bernie Williams

by John Sickels on May 17, 2006 12:56 PM EDT in News Comment 30 comments

Bernie Williams was signed by the Yankees as an undrafted free agent out of Puerto Rico in 1985. At the time, Puerto Ricans were not eligible for the amateur draft. If they had been, Williams would probably have been something like a second or third round pick. He was highly-regarded as an athlete with speed and good defensive ability, but there was some question about how much power he would develop. He was also a very talented guitarist, and at one point considered giving up baseball to go into music for his career. The Yankees got him to sign, outbidding at least two other clubs for his services in the fall of 1985.

Assigned to the rookie level Gulf Coast League in 1986, Williams hit .270 with just a .343 SLG. But he stole 33 bases, drew 39 walks against just 40 strikeouts, and earned plaudits for his defense. At this point, given his athleticism, control of the strike zone, and good glove work, you could rate him as something like a Grade C+ or B- prospect, "with higher potential," if the power developed.

Williams played just 50 games due to a shoulder injury in 1987, split between the New York-Penn League (where he hit .344 in 25 games) and the Florida State League (where he hit .155). A broken wrist limited him to just 92 games in 1988, but he did very well, hitting .335/.450/.487 with 29 steals for Prince William in the Carolina League, winning the batting title. At this point we were starting to see his name appear on top prospect lists due to his speed, contact hitting, plate discipline, and defense. I'd give a similar player a Grade B or maybe a B+ nowadays, only hesitating to give the higher grade due to injury questions.

Williams moved up to Double-A in 1989, and he hit just .252. However, he did knock 11 homers in 91 games for Albany, stole 26 bases, drew 60 walks with 72 strikeouts. He lost batting average, but his isolated power improved and he maintained his strike zone judgment. A 50-game trial in Columbus saw him steal 11 bases but hit just .216/.320/.315. He was just 21, and considering everything I'd probably rate a similar player Grade B or B- nowadays.

The Yankees sent Williams back to Double-A for 1990, and he had a decent year for Albany, hitting .281/.410/.414 with 39 steals. Power was still a question, but he showed excellent plate discipline, drawing 98 walks at age 22. I'd likely rate a similar player as Grade B given that he was repeating the league.

1991 and 1992 were split seasons between Triple-A Columbus and the Yankees. He did well in the minors but was just mediocre (if promising) in the majors, showing gap power, speed, a good glove, but just mediocre power. At this point, Williams was considered a potentially solid regular, but not really a future superstar. Adequate seasons for the Yankees in 1993 and 1994 followed, then he broke out in 1995 at the age of 27, hitting .307 with 18 homers. As he aged, Williams lost speed but gained power.

Bernie's minor league track record was marked by a high walk rate, a decent strikeout rate, speed, and gradually improving power. His minor league record did not scream "superstar," but he was able to combine his tools, baseball skill, and a New York stage into an excellent career.

Comparable Players to Bernie Williams

Roy White
Luis Gonzalez
Dwight Evans
Reggie Smith
Chili Davis
Ellis Burks
Paul O'Neill
The only player in the Hall of Fame who shows up on Bernie's Sim Score list is Tony Perez, with a rating of 874, which isn't really similar at all really and doesn't account for Williams' superior defensive value.

Question: Is Bernie Williams a Hall of Famer?

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no

he's had a solid career, but not outstanding. Just didn't put up the power numbers early enough to crack the min. HR totals. He's also wasting his legacy by staying in the league when he should retire.

Free Kevin Youkilis!!!

by forage on May 17, 2006 1:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bernie Williams in A Ball

I had the privilege of seeing Bernie Williams in A ball at Prince William in 1988. He was a man among boys--clearly a top prospect. The next spring I drafted him in my fantasy league--nobody else had ever heard of him. He's a great, though not Hall of Fame career (even with Yankee hype inflation built in), but he is, by all accounts, a bright, terrific guy. It will be interesting to see what his post-baseball life brings.

by markpotts on May 17, 2006 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not a Hall of Famer

He'd have to get in line behind a boatload of more deserving outfielders who aren't in.

Just one example:

Fred Lynn - 130 OPS+, 9 All Star games
Bernie Williams - 127 OPS+, 5 All Star games

by SmokeyJoeWood on May 17, 2006 1:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not a HOFer...

I've been as big a fan of Bernie Williams as any Yankee fan (despite believing that last October should have been his last baseball game instead of the .600 OPS he's posting now), but he's a great candidate for the Hall of Very Good instead of the Hall of Fame.

There were a couple of years that he was either the best CF in the American League - or at least one of the top names in the discussion, along with Lofton and Griffey, Jr. I just don't think his defense was QUITE that good, his power was insufficient and his horrendous baserunning keep him out of the Hall.

by chucksax on May 17, 2006 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No on HOF

Bernie's had a terrific and outstanding career, but he's not a HOF IMO. I always thought he was a tad overrated defensively (especially since he had no arm), but offensively, he was a force in that he was able to combine excellent on-base skills with decent power as a switch-hitter who did damage from both sides of the plate. From 1995-2002, his lowest OBP was .391. He's probably an underrated offensive player because of his lack of flair.

Bernie was never an instinctive player. He had great speed, but could never run the bases that well, and he got a lot of bad jumps on flyballs. He was able to outrun his problems with that and become a good defensive player, albeit not great. He could have been an even better player if he had those instincts.

He was an integral part of 4 WS championship team, and he did it in a quiet, dignified way. The best thing that happened to the Yanks was that he gave George a chance to match the Red Sox offer when he was flirting with Albert Belle. I can't think of two more opposite people, and I am glad that the Yankees chose to keep Bernie around instead of signing that POS.

#51 will be retired, and it couldn't happen to a better guy.

by jc3 on May 17, 2006 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

HoF?

I'm not saying that he deserves to be in the HoF, but if Kirby Puckett is in, then Bernie should be. Their numbers are prety close, but Bernie has longevity while Kirby has a slightly higher (if shorter) peak period. If Bernie was as outgoing as Kirby, he's be a lock, just like Kirby was.

by sabernar on May 17, 2006 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kirby

I'm not totally sold on Kirby being in the hall either, but I guess the argument for him is he was still an excellent player when a sudden career-ending condition hit him, and he would have been a clear HoF'er had that condition not occurred.

A couple of things when looking at their numbers: Kirby Puckett had 12 full seasons as a good-to-great player, and that's it. Bernie Williams had 10.5 good-to-great full seasons, a couple of average seasons, and a couple of seasons being one of the worst regular outfielders in the game. I'm not sure we should reward Bernie for sticking around longer when he's hitting .260 with awful defense. Bernie may have ammassed similar career totals, but he is detracting from his HoF chances, and his team's chances of winning, every time he steps out onto the field right now.

And I realize these numbers are subjective, but Kirby had more All-Star games and more Gold Gloves in a shorter time frame. The voters consider that stuff, right or wrong.

Even if you consider Bernie to be slightly more deserving than Kirby, I don't think the bottom of the barrell Hall of Famers should be used as the benchmark for future Hall of Famers. i.e. I'm not sure Puckett and Tony Perez should be there in the first place, so I don't feel comfortable using them as the HoF standard.

by SmokeyJoeWood on May 17, 2006 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

Like I said, I'm not sure Bernie should be in the HoF, but at the same time, I feel the same for Kirby. And my other point is that Bernie will probably get no support from the voters even though his numbers are pretty close to Kirby's (some better, some worse).

by sabernar on May 17, 2006 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re

A great Yankee, and by all accounts, a great guy, but no HOFer. His #51 should find a place in monument park, but not Cooperstown.

It took him too long to break out (27/28 years old) and he experienced a sharp #s dropoff instead of a gradual slide. That said, from 1996 to about 2001 he was one of the premier guys in the game.

by ScottAZ on May 17, 2006 2:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Met him

at work a couple of summers ago in Tampa. He came in to do a Kraft commercial in spanish. The man had very soft hands and plays a hell of a guitar. Very nice guy and easy to work with. In the recording industry it doesnt get much better.
Oh hes a pretty nice ballplayer too and I don't like the Yanks.

by chanman on May 17, 2006 2:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

not a HOF er

but the fact that he played his whole career in NY might be enough to get him elected.

by aaronb on May 17, 2006 4:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No...

As much as I really have enjoyed seeing Bernie play over the last nearly 15 years (including the GW HR in the Jeffrey Maher game), I still have to say no. However, I will be shocked if his number is not retired by the Yankees. Does he have decent credentials, absolutely, and a lot of teams would love to say that their third or so best CF of all time was Bernie Williams.

by slickphipsi on May 17, 2006 6:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nope

Only because he played for the Yankees is Bernie Williams even ever mentioned as an HoF candidate. He's the prototypical Hall of Very Good inductee.

by NBarnes on May 17, 2006 7:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes, he's a HOF.

From '94 to '02, he was the best CF in baseball. A career line of .297/.382/.478 with 277 HR, 424 2B and 1043 walks. Some of you are in lala land. This guy was tremendously good for almost an entire decade. I loathe all things Yankees, but Bernie Williams was the Yankees' best player during their championship run, and the best CF in baseball not named Griffey. I don't really get what all the fuss is about; what more do you want a guy to do before you put him in the hall? I find myself more selective at this sort of thing than the average person, which is why it surprises me that no one thinks he's a legit Hall of Famer.

Once he developed power, his defense was average at best, but he was the premier offensive CF in baseball not named Griffey. As far as I can tell, he's probably one of the ten best centerfielders ever.

by Klostrophobic on May 17, 2006 9:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

JAY JAFFE FTW!

And because I'm a nerd, here is how Williams stacks up against the average CF currently in the Hall of Fame.

AVG CF: 715 BRAR, 466 BRAA, -8 FRAA, 108.6 WARP3, 63.8 PEAK, 86.2 JAWS
Williams: 648 BRAR, 399 BRAA, -58 FRAA, 97.9 WARP3, 61 PEAK, 79.5 JAWS

Pretty close to the average CF. And at this point, he's only hurting himself. He's been -11 runs below average since last season, and he's on pace for a -.3 WARP3 this year.

It's too bad he completely fell off a cliff in 2003.

by Klostrophobic on May 17, 2006 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

Im a yankee fan but 94 on was griffey's height, and his stats were demonstrably superior to williams

by Kafa on May 18, 2006 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

10 best cf ever?

No.

You're putting him in a realm with Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays... no. He's just not there, he's not close.

He is in a league with Fred Lynn, Dale Murphy, Brett Butler, Eric Davis: guys who you could make a HoF argument for, but the argument is rather thin.

by SmokeyJoeWood on May 18, 2006 7:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shortage of recent CF's

Bernie has lasted longer than Lynn and Davis. He's better than Butler and Murphy.

Compare Bernie to all OF's and he doesn't look so hot. Compare him to CF's and he looks better. Other than Griffey, there haven't been many great CF's in the past 30 years. The defensive spectrum seems to have shifted.

That said, his bat left him in 2003 at only age 34. A few more good years and he'd be in... but that didn't happen.

by DavidFoss on May 18, 2006 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re

If you put Bernie Williams in then you'd have to put Roger Maris in too. Maris, afterall, won two MVPs and hit a record 61 bombs in the middle of one of the great Yankee dynasties.

by ScottAZ on May 18, 2006 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Except

Bernie was much better than Maris.

And if I had to list the top-10 CF of all time, it would go like this:

Mays
Cobb
Mantle
Speaker
Griffey
DiMaggio
Snider
Hamilton
Williams
Puckett

Am I missing anyone?

Bernie Williams is that good. Part of it is that there are no good centerfielders, but Bernie Williams is still good.

by Klostrophobic on May 18, 2006 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Except

CF is a DEFENSE first position, and Bernie's hasn't been too good for quite a while.
Off the top of my head... Freddie Lynn belongs in the HoF before Williams does and Freddy doesn't belong in the HOF (higher OPS, MVP, more AS games). Andruw Jones might very well be a candidate as well.

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on May 18, 2006 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's not true.

No position is defense first. It's a combination of defense and offense. And his offense makes up for whatever he lacks defensively. It's not like he was a butcher out there (he was tremendous his first couple season); he was average.

Bernie Williams has a higher OPS than Fred Lynn. No MVPs, and fewer All-Star games, but Shea Hillenbrand was an All-Star last year, so it has zero meaning in terms of who the better player is. It's a popularity contest and Bernie Williams played in the same league as this guy named Griffey who could hit 56 homers in a season.

Other than in 1979, Fred Lynn was never as good as Bernie Williams.

Look at these three consecutive seasons:

.328/.408/.544, 21 HR, 35 doubles
.339/.422/.575, 26 HR, 30 doubles
.342/.435/.536, 25 HR, 28 doubles

Even if you don't take into account William's prodigious postseason numbers, he's a hall of famer. 8 straight seasons with an OBP above .390.

Criminally underrated, which is amazing given the team he played for and the position he played.

by Klostrophobic on May 19, 2006 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

HOF

No chance. Williams was a very good player, but no one in their right mind would take williams over griffey during the 94-02 timeframe (except a Yankee homer). Griffey played great defense while leading the league in HR's multiple times. bernie was a very good ballplayer, Griffey is a Hall of Famer. Griffey is a guy youbought tickets to see, Williams wasn't.

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on May 18, 2006 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Edmonds

Jim Edmonds has been better than Bernie. Is Edmonds a HOFer. I don't know, but Bernie is not.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on May 19, 2006 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

oops

I failed to read the part mentioning griffey, sorry about that.

by Kafa on May 18, 2006 12:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hall

While I do think that batting cleanup and playing center for four World Series champs plus being the all time leader in many postseason hitting categories should count for something, I just don't think Bernie's overall numbers are good enough to get in. I'm sure he'll be on the ballot for ten years, but I just can't see him making it all the way.

by rwperu34 on May 18, 2006 6:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ok

but how much does having an insane amount of ab's in the postseason account for whatever records he holds? in 482 career postseason ab's his line is .277 avg, .373 obp, and .483 slg. not bad, but not trul;y record breaking in any way. he got alot of ab's, and thats basically the end of the story.

by DavidWrightismyGod on May 19, 2006 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eastern League

No, hall of very good

Any way, Bernie hit .281/.410/.414 in the Eastern League. I recall that the Yankees were relentlessly touting him as a five tool prospect at the time (they were trying to trade him)- but I, a Bill James reader remember being unimpressed by Bernie's #s. (the thinking was that walks didn't translate well, so I was really looking at a .281/.360/.414 line in AA- which wasn't all that hot.

I was wrong (and I have no excuse because I had Baseball America;a almanac for that year)- The Eastern league put up a collective line of .240/.315/.330 that year (or something like it). The Eastern League was effectively like MLB in teh dead ball era- only 1-2 teams reached 100 homers an d only one guy cleared 20 (Rico Brogna of all people)- any way Bernie's 1990 batting line is roughly equivalent to
Bernie's 1990 Eastern league line is roughly equivaklent in value to a .310/.430/.517 line in the 2005 Texas league. For a player his age and athleticism? That's a prospect even if his walks didn't fully project.

[Bagwell was even better, not that the Redsox noticed- his .333/.423/.457 line in that context was just outstanding]

by Johnny Ruin on May 18, 2006 2:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

HOF

I think Bernie will probably get in the HOF eventually. If there is a functioning Veterans Committee still electing players in 20 or so years I think Bernie would be voted in if the writers don't earlier.

I find it interesting debating CF and no one has mentioned Jim Edmonds yet. I would rank the CF as Griffey, Edmonds, Williams and probably Lofton. A Jones still has too much of a career left to include with the other 4. I think both Williams and Lofton will get credit for being CF on teams that always went to the playoffs. I don't think it will be enough to get Lofton in the HOF though.

by StLouBlue on May 19, 2006 2:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

NO

Not even close on HOF. A very good player of the caliber of Dale Murphy, Andre Dawson, Don Mattingly, Orel Hershiser, Dave Stewart and all the players are just good enough not to go in.

I defend the Pedro for Delino trade.

by Nolan on May 19, 2006 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs