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I'll be doing the mock draft for the Cubbies.  Any input from Cub-loyal posters?  SoCalBob?

I will also be needing a deputy, apparently.  I plan on being around on draft day, but it is a couple of weeks away.

The Cubs have but one pick in the first four rounds(the 13th overall selection), thanks to the signings of Scott Eyre, Bob Howry and Jacque Jones.  As such, I'll be looking to take the best available guy, regardless of position.  Getting a polished college hitter would be ideal, though.

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Eh there's not much there as far as college talent
for hitters. Maybe a guy like Matt LaPorta, but he's a 1B and we won't need that with Dopirak and Lee. Wes Hodges should be there, but do we need a 3B? Matt Antonelli is a kid I like (high OBP), but again do we need a 3B/2B? Pretty much any other college kid will be a huge overdraft there.

I say we go best available period. I like Max Scherzer, he should be there for the Cubs in the real draft, but not here because scouting directors want be realists when it comes to bonus' and Scott Boras. Other guys I like there: Jeremy Jeffress, Clayton Kershaw, Kyle Drabek, Brandon Morrow, Daniel Brad and possibly Chris Marrero. Stay away from Ian Kennedy please.

As for the fifth round pick? A guy like Jason Berken out of Clemson would be perfect.


by Ienpw on May 17, 2006 12:09 AM EDT reply actions  

My suggestions
I agree about going with a college player if possible mainly because your risking your only pick in the first 4 rounds on a much riskier player taking a HS player.

Certainly, if Daniel Bard falls (which I don't believe he will), take him in a heart beat.  

Otherwise, best available and preferably a college player.

Check out my Chicago Cubs Minor League System website: Top Cubs Prospects

by jonpyardi on May 17, 2006 7:56 AM EDT reply actions  

Draft Scherzer
He's a stud guaranteed.

Greatest pitcher ever.

M-I-Z!

by jeromechef on May 17, 2006 12:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Scherzer
He'd look perfect sitting on the end of a bench with Prior and Wood, all three out with injuries...
"If there wasn't nine guys out in the field, I'd have a hit every time except when I strike out." - Delmon Young

by Brickhaus on May 17, 2006 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

LOL
That'd be the greatest rotation of injured players of all time.

by jeromechef on May 17, 2006 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

re:
Before this post he was at the top of my draft board.

Now it'll never happen.

by Ian Miller on May 17, 2006 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hater
Thats all you are Cobb.  A hater.

by jeromechef on May 17, 2006 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

you wont draft a pitcher
because he missed a month due to an injury? then you would NEVER draft a pitcher. You gotta go with Scherzer. He's pitching fine now.

by Ienpw on May 17, 2006 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sarcasm, my friend
At this point, my mindset is that if Scherzer is there, I'm likely to take him, since I agree with an earlier assessment that this draft class is light on hitting talent.

However, if for some reason a top five guy like Andrew Miller or Brandon Morrow were to drop, I'd probably take them.  I'm not sure I'd take Lincecum, though.  His delivery, erratic command and enormously high pitch counts are all red flags for me.

by Ian Miller on May 18, 2006 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Is Morrow really better than Scherzer?
Look at Morrow's 06 compared to Scherzer's 05

9-4 1.86 ERA, 106.1 IP, 59 H, 131:41 K:BB
7-3 1.74 ERA, 93.2 IP, 65 H, 96:36 K:BB

Something I wrote somewhere on Scherzer:
Strengths:

    Scherzer is not terribly tall, but he's a stocky 6'2" who is powerfully built. His bread and butter is his fastball. He works 93-95 with a fluid motion and reaches 97-99 MPH when he's in a tight spot. This was evident in the ninth inning of a game last season against former Nebraska star Alex Gordon, where he sat at 97-99 much of the innings and struck out Gordon on three fastballs clocked at 98 MPH. Unlike Tim Lincecum or Brandon Morrow, he has not been clocked in triple digits but he's got much more polish on his fastball than they have. He was also on Team USA where he pumped 99 MPH consistently to Nicaragua and the next day a few of their players came to get his autograph. To compliment his fastball he has the makings of a good major league slider, but it's not in the class of Lincecum's curve, Lincoln's curve or Morrow's splitter. Scherzer would certainly be the top RHP in the draft had the injuries not come about, he might have the most upside of the college crop this year, Andrew Miller included.

Weaknesses:

    Scherzer's fastball and slider are solid pitches, but his changeup is very inconsistent and needs a lot more consistency for him to remain a starter. The injury this year is concerning on some level. Bicep injuries can often creep up to the shoulder and be a prelude to rotator cuff and/or labrum problems. While his work ethic and love for competition are plusses, he's a lot like Kerry Wood where they can be detrimental. His bulldog mentality causes him to pitch through problems which could be an issue. Finally, he's a guy who could slide into the middle of the first round because of the injury issues, and more importantly the potential bonus demands.

Something I wrote somewhere on Morrow:
Strengths:

    There is not much concern with his performances as a freshman and a sophomore. As strange as this might sound, his struggles have been attributed to higher velocity. He was throwing in the upper 80s in high school, then low 90s as a freshman than all of a sudden he was throwing 97 as a junior and his back muscles weren't strong enough to withstand the added stress. He spent most of the second half of the season working out and getting in shape. He underwent a huge transformation on the Cape in the summer. He was not completely healthy yet, but he was healthy enough to close. He was running his fastball consistently 96-99 MPH in the role. This spring he has matched that velocity, but has moved into the Golden Bear rotation. His primary offspeed pitch is a devastating splitter which is probably the best offspeed pitch in the draft. The deadly two pitch combination could make him a dominant closer in the future, or he could evolved into a front line starter, but it's weird seing a college kid relying on this pitch, most guys develop after they lost their curve or slider.

Weaknesses:

    Brandon Morrow needs a lot of work on his command in order to move quickly through the minor league ranks. He's a very thin pitcher, standing 6'3" and weighing only 185 lbs. Pitchers like that rarely hold up and that's an issue for a pitcher, obviously. Scouts aso complain about his consistency this season. He has had his dominant performances, but take his first two starts for example. He opened the season with a 12 strike out performance but failed to strike out a batter in his second start. Like many college pitchers he does not have a third pitch. He needs to develop some sort of a useful breaking pitch. He's worked on a slider and a curve, but it's nowhere near the quality needed for him to stick as a starter. Finally, he also has mechanical issues that need some work.

by Ienpw on May 18, 2006 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

re:
"Is Morrow really better than Scherzer?"

Not necessarily, but he is healthier.

by Ian Miller on May 18, 2006 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

and Morrow
has only had one good year in his life. Scherzer's healthy now. He pitched 7 innings last start. He's got UT this weekend and well a lot will depend on how he performs.

by Ienpw on May 18, 2006 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can we draft a
replacement for Dusty Baker?
"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on May 17, 2006 2:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Agree on the need for a sure thing
I think given that we only have 1 pick in the first 4 rounds I think maybe you sacrifice a higher ceiling for a player that you feel confident will develop.  I feel fairly confident the cubs will take a pitcher although I don't really know much about the selections of this new scouting director.  

That said I believe it should be an up the middle positional player.  The one interview I read with the new scouting director said he likes selecting talented hitting shortstops because the athleticism allows them to change positions easily.  

by JonH on May 17, 2006 2:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Impact
The Cubs have a lot of pitching depth, but few impact guys outside of PAwelek and Pie. Someone might suprise, but it doesn't seem like there are that many impact players in the college ranks this year. I think the desire for an impact player and the swing away from HS prospects for most other teams means that the Cubs could grab nice talent if they go the HS route. Also, with their depth in young pitching, they can afford to wait for a HS kid to develop.

That said, is there any chance that Hochevar would drop? Otherwise, as far as pitching is concerned Drabek or Jeffress both have upside. Otherwise a HS position player like Conger or Marrero.

Neither Dopirak nor Sing is a good reason not to draft a 1B. They're age and recent performance make them both fringy guys.

by tom @ Minor League Ball on May 17, 2006 2:45 PM EDT reply actions  

re:
Yeah I definitely wouldn't pass on LaPorta because of the presence of Dopirak.  However, he had a horrible start to the season(partly due to injury), so his stock has to have dropped a notch or two.

by Ian Miller on May 18, 2006 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

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