MOD: Rangers

by RCCook on May 16, 2006 10:51 PM EDT Comment 24 comments

Fellow Ranger fans:

We have four picks in the mock draft- 12, 88, 118, and 148. No second-rounder.

With pitching always a need, and a draft heavy on college arms, taking a pitcher in the first round seems like a good choice, but the farm is also pretty light on high-ceiling outfield talent. I'm generally a "take the best player available" guy, regardless of position.

I'm also thinking that no second-round pick might free Texas up to take a player or two with some signability questions. Given that Jon Daniels is not afraid to deal with Boras, targeting one or more of his clients might not be a bad idea.

All opinions and input welcome, particularly first-hand player observations!

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hitters

I'd like to see the Rangers take a premium hitter with their first round pick. You can never have too much pitching, but the Ranger system has been bereft of an elite hitting prospect since they graduated Mark Teixeira.

However, since most draft gurus seem to believe this is a fairly weak class overall, the "best available" draft approach might just be the best.

Position players that stand out to me right now are Florida 1B Matt LaPorta, Georgia Tech 3B Wes Hodges, HS OF Travis Snider. I'm also curious to see where some of the pitchers will fall, since a pitcher's stock is generally the most difficult to predict.

by Ian Miller on May 16, 2006 11:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I REALLY...

want to see them take a high-ceiling, accomplished college OF guy...similar to Trevor Crowe or Jacoby Ellsbury. If one is not there, go with the best pitcher on the board, regardless of signability issues.

by ortonius on May 16, 2006 11:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Best Player

I am definitely from the school of best player available, but with baseball can you really ever say that this guy we have at 12 is better than this guy at 13?

With that said I would love to see us get some offense back in the system. I think with the likes of Volquez, Danks, Diamond, Masset, Kirkman, Rasner, Hurley, Schlact, Littleton, etc. we have a lot of arms that hopefully at least a few of them pan out. When you speak of offense there is only about a handful of guys that you think might have a shot at making an impact someday.

We have had decent luck at getting arms later in the draft (Fogle, Mathis, Kometani, Coffman, Lujan, Feldman, Narron, Loe, etc.) that have given us something or giving us some hope that they will in the future. I like stockpiling pitchers later, and also toolsy guys. It is such a gamble later in the draft that I think they should always take the guys that may be a little more of a gamble, but potential big upside later in the draft.

I am not qualified to say who they should pick as I have not even read up on, let alone seen, these guys that are being talked about.

I don't, however, want them to take Stubbs. I am tired of the gamble guys in the 1st round. And you make a good point Rob we don't have a second rounder so signability shouldn't even be a factor!

I do prefer high schoolers over college guys though for reasons best discussed in another thread.

Dream List:

Potential Impact Offensive Player (Would love a Center Fielder or Outfielder)
Best Available Player
Best Available Pitcher (unless pitcher is taken @ 12 or 88 then best available player)
Best High School Arm Available.

by Mike Simonek on May 17, 2006 12:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Best player

"I am definitely from the school of best player available, but with baseball can you really ever say that this guy we have at 12 is better than this guy at 13?"

That's what worries me a bit- the talent this year is all so even. Pretty much every projected first-rounder has a wart or two, and other than Andrew Miller, there aren't any evident blue-chippers. Lots of solid talent, though, and the evenness of the top guys should make for an interesting draft, both here, and in real life.

I'm kinda leaning offense right now, even though the first-round talent skews towards college pitching. Texas could certainly use an impact bat.

by RCCook on May 17, 2006 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stubbs

I know AJM has been making the comparison to Drew Meyer, but Stubbs has been turning the power "potential" into power production this year. 11 homers ties him for fourth in the Big 12(and equals his total from all of last year), and he's still showing off the speed, leading the Big 12 in steals. He does strike out a good bit, but the numbers are there otherwise.

He wouldn't be my first choice necessarily, but if he's available and is clearly the highest rated player left when the Rangers pick, I hope they wouldn't dismiss him simply because they've been burned by a player with a similar profile(toolsy defensive guy without offensive polish).

by Ian Miller on May 17, 2006 1:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Stubbs

One of my biggest concerns with Stubbs, and guys like him is that taking a toolsy guy in high school is a little less risk I think. Those guys just might not have access to real good coaching, and the raw talent can be seen. In college, especially at a school like UT, they have pretty solid coaching. If they are not getting it out of him, to the extent that he would be a solid every day major league talent (talking potential here), then how much more is a little better coaching in a MLB system going to get out of him?

Not closing the book on the guy, but that has always been my thoughts on college toolsy guys.

by Mike Simonek on May 17, 2006 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

That's why I didn't like the Mayberry pick last year. If you play at a major college program like Stanford or UT, you should already be fairly polished by the time you're draft-eligible.

I'm more of a stat-oriented type than a tools guy anyway, so the likelihood of taking Stubbs isn't that great. Though I will look at a tools guy under the right circumstances.

by RCCook on May 17, 2006 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

I didn't like the Mayberry pick, either, but as I pointed out in my post, Stubbs is turning that potential into production. His numbers are pretty good. Certainly better than Mayberry's were last year.

by Ian Miller on May 18, 2006 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I haven't been following this process too closely this year, but in the MLB draft I walways advocate a "best player available" strategy. The chances of any of these guys making it are so slim that trying to pick for need is silly.

With that in mind three names that stand out for me are Drew Stubbs, Luke Hochevar, and Kyle Drabek.

"When you can hit, you can hit, and he can hit." -Tom Grieve on Michael Young.

by thedirkatron on May 17, 2006 3:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

drabek

go pitching and go local good pick

by bartonboi on May 17, 2006 10:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Drabek

He's a good all-around athlete. I've heard that he has first-round potential as a middle infielder as well. Also heard that he's got some potential maturity/makeup issues, which I'm trying to look into.

Drabek is definitely a player I'm looking at, along with the two local products, Jordan Walden and Clayton Kershaw.

by RCCook on May 17, 2006 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

I would definitely take Walden or Kershaw if there are there at 12.

by ortonius on May 17, 2006 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stubbs

Seems like a good calculated risk at #12.

by limozeen on May 17, 2006 10:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Risk

Limo do you really want to take a self admitted risk at 12? I know they are all risk, but if you know going in it is a gamble do you really want to go that way?

by Mike Simonek on May 18, 2006 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Seems to me that the safest bet in the draft is Longoria, but he's likely out of the picture. Stubbs has great defensive tools and a good eye at the plate. I think his likely profile will be a Torii Hunter/Mike Cameron type. He could be a lot better though, which is not something you can say for most position players at #12.

by limozeen on May 18, 2006 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Possibly

I am by no means closed minded on the guy. To be truthful I don't know much about him just that I have read he is a risky pick.

by Mike Simonek on May 18, 2006 11:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Stubbs v Mayberry

Stubbs
Sr Year: .337/.436/.595, 11 HR, 35 BB in 205 AB
Jr Year: .311/.384/.527, 11 HR, 32 BB in 283 AB

Mayberry
Sr Year: .303/.391/.479, 8 HR, 28 BB in 238 AB
Jr Year: .333/.419/.625, 16 HR, 30 BB in 216 AB

and for the hell of it

Meyer
Sr Year: .359/.411/.512, 6 HR, 28 BB in 334 AB

by Ian Miller on May 19, 2006 10:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting comparison

Stubbs' walk rate is encouraging, especially compared to Mayberry's.

I can certainly see the Cameron/Hunter comparisons, which, IMO, is not a bad thing.

I'll sit down this weekend and come up with a list of around 15 players for us to discuss next week. Stubbs and Drabek will be included.

by RCCook on May 19, 2006 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Starting

to sell me some. I have seen writing that he has a plus arm (very nice in Center). He seems like an intelligent guy (Academia wise). And he has hit well with runners on, and runners in scoring position.

Do they count the Conference Tournament, Regionals, Super Regionals, and CWS in their final stats?

Just curious if they lumped them all in or if they were "playoff" type stats?

by Mike Simonek on May 19, 2006 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ian

what are the Cubs leaning towards? :)

by Mike Simonek on May 19, 2006 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Heh

Well, since they pick right after Texas, it will probably depend a lot on what the Rangers do.

I've thought for a while now that Scherzer would be too difficult to pass up if he fell into their lap, and BA's latest mock draft seems to think so, too.

by Ian Miller on May 19, 2006 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BA Mock Draft

As Ian alluded to, Baseball America's first mock draft (posted today) has the Rangers taking Scherzer at #12. Stubbs (Tigers) and Kershaw (Dodgers) were both "picked" before the Rangers' selection, though Drabek was not.

Does anyone know what his "maturity" issues entail? I keep hearing a lot about those, but nobody's talking. I'd be interested to know if it's just the kid having a big head, or if there are any legitimate off-the-field issues involved.

by RCCook on May 19, 2006 3:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Player List

Here's a list of 20-plus players I took from the Baseball America draft lists- just throwing out some names for discussion:

Drew Stubbs, OF, Texas
Matt LaPorta, 1b, Florida
Chad Tracy, C, Pepperdine
Wes Hodges, 3b, Georgia Tech
Matt Antonelli, 3b, Wake Forest
Max Scherzer, rhp, Missouri
Joba Chamberlin, rhp, Nebraska
Daniel Bard, rhp, North Carolina
Ian Kennedy, rhp, Southern California
Kyle McCulloch, rhp, Texas
Greg Reynolds, rhp, Stanford
Mark Melancon, rhp, Arizona
Dallas Buck, rhp, Oregon State
Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Highland Park HS
Kyle Drabek, rhp, The Woodlands HS
Chris Tillman, rhp, Fountain Valley HS
Chris Marrero, 3b, Monsignor Pace HS
Brett Anderson, lhp, Stillwater HS
Jordan Walden, rhp, Mansfield HS
Hank Conger, c, Huntington Beach HS
Travis Snider, of, Jackson HS

I think all these players will be taken before the Rangers select at #12; still, I thought they were worthy of discussion as well:

Evan Longoria, 3b, Long Beach State
Andrew Miller, lhp, North Carolina
Brad Lincoln, rhp, Houston
Brandon Morrow, rhp, California
Tim Linceum, rhp, Washington

by RCCook on May 21, 2006 8:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Kyle Drabek

The more I read about this guy the more I like him. I guess it would matter what is found out about his off the field issues, but Baseball America says he is an outstanding position player prospect so if for some reason he turns into Ankiel you can maybe get something out of the pick.

He sounds like he has a super live arm.

by Mike Simonek on May 30, 2006 7:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs