Is There Any Hope For Justin Morneau?

by John Sickels on May 11, 2006 1:42 PM EDT in News Comment 25 comments

Is There Any Hope for Justin Morneau?

I first became aware of Justin Morneau shortly before the 1999 draft, when a scout told me he was a player to watch closely in the draft. The scout compared him to "Larry Walker without speed," and said that Morneau would have been a certain first-round pick if he was from the US rather than Canada. I was quite happy when the Twins snared Morneau in the third round, and was ecstatic when Morneau hit .402 in rookie ball in 2000. He blistered the ball in 2001 and 2002, with increasing power production to go with his batting average at a young age. Morneau slammed 19 homers and 17 doubles in just 74 games for the Twins in 2004, and looked like a sure offensive star heading into 2005. But he has struggled since then. While he has continued to hit home runs (8 already this year), his batting average and OBP are slipping. In 986 career at-bats, he currently holds a .245/.312/.462 line, certainly not as good as expected.

Is there any hope that Morneau can live up to his early potential?

Well, sure. The main thing is that he doesn't turn 24 until next week. His strikeout rate is not out of bounds for a power hitter. His list of comparable players is an interesting mix

Carmelo Martinez
Richie Sexson
Paul Konerko
Nate Colbert
Mo Vaughn
Mike Marshall
Brad Fullmer

Some of those guys turned into star sluggers, some didn't.

It's not too late for Morneau; there is hope. But from watching him play over the last couple of years, sometimes he looks, well, confused at the plate, like he takes a different approach from at-bat to at-bat. Sometimes it looks like he's trying to be a contact hitter. Other times he seems to swing from the heels.

I have noticed this with other Twins power-hitting prospects over the last ten years. Something doesn't seem to be clicking with the type of instruction that the Twins give their young power hitters. This is the exact opposite of the problem that the franchise had when I was a kid: it used to be that they had lots of young hitters but that the pitching prospects seldom panned out. Now the pitchers turn out well, but the hitters tend to disappoint. As a Twins fan, and as an analyst, it is frustrating to watch.

It is not at all too late for Justin Morneau. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if he doesn't really blossom until he moves on to another team.

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Good Comments John...

But I have a question...

What do you think the Twins are doing wrong in terms of instructing their young power hitters? I'm a diehard Twins fan, have been for about 15 years now, and it just boggles me how they continue to keep failing with proclaimed "young power hitters."

It really worries me, not just because of Justin Morneau, but another kid that I was ecstatic about the Twins getting in last year's draft, Henry Sanchez. For Beloit, he currently has a line of 232/291/368, which for his standards of being a "power hitter" isn't very good. He also only has 2 HR's in 95 AB's for Beloit.

Should Terry Ryan and the organization really take a deep look into their philosophies when it comes to teaching young power hitters!? I mean, there have been numerous reports and stories about how they continually screwed around with David Ortiz's swing and etc, and look what he's become.

Thoughts??

Sickels for President.

by StatFreakNYM on May 11, 2006 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

theory

I think they are too paranoid about strikeouts. They were always telling Ortiz to shorten his swing and go for contact rather than driving the ball.

by John Sickels on May 11, 2006 2:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Strikeouts, DH's, and small markets

I'm also a native Minnesotan and a life-long Twins fan, and my family still argues about whether David Ortiz ever would have been an MVP candidate in a Twins uniform. My father definitely thinks the Twins made a mistake, but I don't.

But my dad only talks about homers and batting average, though. He's prone to forgetting that the team which hits the most homers and owns the best OBP or batting average usually does NOT win the World Series (and seldom plays in one).

In my humble opinion, small-market teams cannot afford to pay an above-average salary to a slow and injury-prone hitter who cannot field or make contact consistently. David Ortiz had all of those flaws as a Twin. Mike Sweeney is a better contact hitter, but the Royals may have been wiser to have invested his $11M salary in one impact starter, one great positional player, two solid positional players, two above-average starting pitchers, or one of each in retrospect.

I think only 10 or so teams can afford to pay their hitters to strike out more than 10% of AB+BB-IBB. Whether one guy walks enough or hits for a high enough average to produce an OBP +/- .100 better than another is seen as statistically significant to fans and GM's, and rightfully so. Still, that is only one dimension of productivity which occurs in a mere ten percent of relevant plate appearances. In a season of 500 of those, that would be a small sample size of 50 PA's. Hitters are ranked and paid on a far smaller difference than "100 points of OBP" (or worse yet, OPS). It's no wonder that players' salaries have increased exponentially in an era when most fans, GM's, and analysts make more than 50% of a player's evaluation on 10% or less of that player's body of work.

By that logic, Player A's .350 OBP has probably attracted a big salary from a GM who doesn't care that the player strikes out in 20% of those relevant plate appearances, while Player B's .320 OBP commands a smaller salary, despite only striking out in 8% of his relevant PA's. Assuming each plays the same position equally well and generates the same number of XBH (of course, a larger % of HR will also jack up a salary without necessarily being productive more often) and net steals in 500 relevant PA's each, Player B is generally cheaper and more helpful to his team on a more consistent basis. Player B reaches base 30 fewer times, but makes contact (and therefore taxes opposing pitchers and defenses while potentially advancing teammates on the basepaths) 120 more times. (Never mind that most GM's fail to recognize the value of stolen bases much at all, but that's a different discussion altogether.)

Everyone seems to have forgotten how different Ortiz was then vs. now. Perhaps the Twins may have expected too much of him before age 28 and gave up on him too early, but the Twins couldn't build a fundamentally sound team around an injury-prone guy who couldn't field or make consistent contact. The Twins were probably thrilled to have had ONE healthy and above-average season out of him by the time his contract expired in 2002:

INJURED, did not play a game in the minors.
Minor-league breakthrough/MLB debut, and the first time he played 150+ games in a year.
INJURED, just OK in a healthy half-season.
Rehabbed @ AAA, showed great potential, probably shouldn't have stayed there for 476 AB.
Then-career-high average of .282 with 10 HR in 415 AB and 130 games played, all in the bigs.
INJURED, disappointed when healthy (.234 BA)
Contract year: .272AVG, .339OBP, 20HR, a worse BB:K ratio than in 2001 in 125 G and 412AB.

Ortiz was asking to be paid for his potential rather than his performance at this point, and the Red Sox paid for a risk they could afford to take more than the Twins could have at the time.

2003: Slightly better on a much better team in a much better park with new career highs: .288 AVG, .369 OBP, 31 HR; still only 128 G, 448 AB.

2004-2005: 2nd and 3rd seasons with 150+ games played, and the first time he has been healthy for 3 consecutive years in his 12 pro seasons.

And hasn't Ortiz validated the Twins' strikeout paranoia? When Ortiz finally improved his plate discipline to career-high levels in the past two years, he also produced his most productive seasons to date.

Hopefully, Morneau and the rest will listen and learn that lesson ASAP. He has time (along with the other Twins' prospects mentioned in this thread), and I believe the Twins will try to keep any of them who can stay healthy and buy into that sort of approach to hitting enough to produce results.

by Stat Ninja on May 14, 2006 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope he can figure out his approach at the plate

When he gets good contact the ball flies off his bat like pujols....Thats a big time "when" though.

by joeywyen on May 11, 2006 2:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it's funny to me

that 5 of the 7 comps you listed swing (or swung) right-handed bats. Justin had great minor league numbers, but he was never a Nick Johnson or Erubiel Durazo type (hitting .400 with .500 OBPs), generally striking out about twice as much as he walked. It's hard to say a 25-year old has no hope, but right now I'm not hoping as much as I used to. Just look at the sure-thing 1B/DH types who've failed to keep major league jobs over the past few years, namely Carlos Pena & Josh Phelps. Maybe Hee Choi, too, but he's a different case. Those guys were sure things, and their clubs lost patience with their struggles after giving them extensive chances, much like Morneau is receiving.

by Azteca on May 11, 2006 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Morneau comparisons

I see plenty of similarities between Morneau and Konerko, especially.

Remember Konerko the Dodger and Konerko the Red? He was shipped around because he was the 22-year-old uber-prospect who couldn't hit above the Mendoza line, and I remember reading from Mr. Sickels (and a few others) that he was too young to discard and would produce...and he did.

I also remember the "we-told-you-so's" from a few baseball writers not named John Sickels when Konerko of North Chicago had that mysterious slump a couple of seasons ago.

Sexson is also on his 4th MLB team as I recall.

Isn't that enough to stop bashing the Twins' front office? They haven't given up on Morneau in the time that several teams gave up on Konerko and Sexson, so give Terry Ryan & Co. a little more credit, IMHO.

by Stat Ninja on May 14, 2006 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

worried about Matt Moses and Jason Kubel

Cuddyer, Walker, Rivas, Ortiz....

How many top 20 baseball america hitting prospects need to go down before something is done?

Next up...Matt Moses and Jason Kubel. Come on down.

by BoristheSpider on May 11, 2006 2:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Twins

Justin Morneau's stuggles remind me of Dallas McPherson's struggles with the Angels, especially how he seems confused at the plate. I wonder if it has to do with the fact that both the Angels and the Twins are committed to "small ball" strategies. Both organizations seem to steal, bunt, hit and run, sacrifice, and seem to do those things well. I think guys like Morneau or David Ortiz just dont fit that style of play. Combined with the organizational strikout paranoia, is the fact that the manager is always calling for specific plays (they call it "situational hitting") which really screws around with patient power hitters who are willing to take strikes and swing and miss.

I saw this happen to Hee Seop Choi when he was with the Dodgers. Choi would come to the plate and Tracy would call a hit and run, Choi would swing at a pitch that he would normally watch, and would either wiff or hit the ball weakly into play. Then we heard from Jim Tracy about how Choi cant hit and needs time to work on fundamentals as he makes excuses to leave him on the bench in favor of a more contact oriented hitter. I suspect that Dusty Baker had similar issues with Choi. The same thing happened to David Ortiz and Choi, and now its happening again to Justin Morneau and Dallas McPherson. Personally, I think managers need to take guys like Morneau and leave them alone at the plate.

by sanchez101 on May 11, 2006 2:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Incompetentcy

I'm sorry, but that's what I think the problem is. I don't think it's a complete organizational issue. Twins have had good success developing promising hitters over the years, it's just that they start @#%!-ing them up once they reach the show with something completely different than what got them there.

As I posted elsewhere, I think Morneau is in the middle of rebuilding his approach, which means Vavra is doing something different (as in better) than Ulger. Morneau looks like he is getting healthy swings reguardless of count these days, instead of trying to plink the ball past the infielders. his HR total is promising, and I think the consistency will follow. Also, from my limited observations, pitchers were really pitching him tough at the beginning of the year. Morneau was constantly behind by virtue of a lot of strikes on the low-outside corner to begin at-bats, and he still can be suckered to swing at too many bad balls.

I don't think Morneau will ever be a great hitter. i think he can become a great mistake hitter and hit between .250-.280 with 60-70 walks and consistent 30+ HR power for the next 10 years.

by steve johnson on May 11, 2006 2:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My two cents

As others have said, I too think it's an organizational thing. The Twins seem to push the situational hitting aspect to the extreme. When they get a hitter like Morneau or David Ortiz they just don't know how to change their instructional approach.

Morneau's clear pitch type weaknesses are low/outside corner changeups and breaking balls in the dirt or outside. The kid chases those pitches time and time again. But when he gets something middle-in he can really crush the ball. MLB pitchers are smart and know if they can get Justin to chase those crappy pitches in the beginning of the count that he will quickly tense up, get anxious, and become an easy out.

Someone needs to get it through Justin's head that it is better to let that low-away slider go for strike one than it is to flail at the pitch. Show pitchers that you're not going to chase that crap. If you're down two strikes then just foul it off. Make the pitcher come into your crushable zone. Pitchers don't like it when big portions of the pitching zone get taken away from them and by laying/fouling off those kinds of pitches you've shown the pitcher that he won't get you there. It's a mind game, buddy. Here's how it works; if the pitcher gives you a crushable pitch early in the count you crush it, if the pitcher tosses junk outside of your happy zone then you work the count. This is called pattern recognition (start off easy with farm animal flash cards and work your way up). Your job is to hit the ball hard, very hard, every time you are at bat. None of this sissy, Nicky Punto going-up-the-middle garbage. Give the RF whiplash with a 425 foot bomb. In order to do your job you need a ball middle-in, fastball preferred. Grab some video of Big Papa. Watch his transformation from a lost, failing Twins hitter to the mega-slugger he is today. This is your path in life. After you watch the videos go "Kyle Lohse" on Gardy's door and yell, "I am Justin Morneau from the Great White North! I hit the ball to the Yukon in every at bat! And I will wear my lumberjack suspenders under my pixie vest without fear of your sad mockery!" You'll feel much better.

Seriously, the Twins need to realize when the Tom Kelly way of the diamond is not the right approach with a player. Morneau is a slugger and they need to let him, um, slug.

by Jaerbesan on May 11, 2006 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Morneau

I agree except that I think the organization did a great job developing him up through AAA. I think the problem is that the major league coaching staff is incapable of taking Justin Morneau for what he is. Under a different coaching staff Morneau is in the lineup everyday and batting cleanup right behind Mauer, not hitting 6th or 7th five times a week.

by sanchez101 on May 11, 2006 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Winning

Under a different coaching staff Morneau is in the lineup everyday and batting cleanup right behind Mauer, not hitting 6th or 7th five times a week.

Yeh, the Twins of 1999 would have done that. Now they are trying to win baseball games. In that case, putting Morneau in the cleanup spot would be extremely stupid. They did do that last year and as it turned out it was extremely stupid.

by TT on May 11, 2006 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Winning?

Now they are trying to win baseball games.

And failing miserably. This has been a terrible offense since the beginning of last season. Part of winning is scoring. They don't weaken an awful offense in the short run by batting Morneau cleanup (seriously -- who else is there?), and they might just make it better in a matter of weeks or months by sticking him there and letting him get comfortable.

Batting Torii Hunter cleanup and putting Morneau in situations where he's gotta do things other than rake hurts the team in just about every way possible.

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on May 12, 2006 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jaerbesan, this is a great post....

....I laughed and nodded my head...

by daveh33 on May 11, 2006 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

am i the only one

who sees a little bit of travis hafner in justin morneau?

not just in the #'s, which are actually very similar all throughout their careers, but even in their approaches at the plate...obviously theyre both huge lefties, they both have that sweeping power stroke that can create for some MONSTER hrs, both strikeout at a little over a 2:1 rate, relative to walks...and the struggles that morneau seems to be going through so far parallel well with those that caused texas to give up on hafner before he really put it together with the tribe

and as for those #'s, its actually striking how similar they are up until this point in morneau's pro career and the corresponding point in hafner's...this includes their entire minor league careers and just look at both of their first extended periods in the majors:

hafner '03: 291ab's .254/.327/.485 14hrs 40rbis 22bb's 81k's

morneau '04: 280abs .271/.340/.536 19hrs 58rbis 28bb's 54k's

morneau actually outproduced hafner somewhat...now this little theory of mine would call for morneau to have a big '06 which clearly he is not doing...however, the biggest difference with these 2 has been their age relative to league; morneaus been approx. 3 yrs ahead of hafner pretty much his entire career even reaching the majors at age 22 vs. hafner's age 25 debut...so it would stand to reason that it might take morneau a little bit longer before he fully adjusts to major league pitching than it did hafner...plus, we should probably factor in morneau's injury plagued '05 as a season of much slower progress as well as the fact that hafner entered a much stronger indians lineup so he was not pressured to perform while morneau is being counted on to be one of minny's central run producers, probably causing him to press a bit more and possibly stunting his development

one more little tidbit for fun, hafner's april & may stats from his second full season (05) vs. morneau's current april & may stats:

hafner : .280/.390/.430 5hrs 12rbis 18bb's 24k's

morneau : .227/.284/.356 8hrs 23rbis 9bb's 26k's

not exactly conclusive info so take it however you'd like to...for the record, i cut hafner's '05 may stats by 2/3 to help them correspond with morneau's current stats, in terms of ab's...makes it a bit fuzzier but the 2 lines don't exactly point to anything too solid anyway...

by robcast23 on May 11, 2006 5:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I see Hafner, Ortiz...I just see a monster....

...very few players can turn my head just by hearing the crack of their bat on the tv...Morneau did that to me...if he figures it out like Ortiz and Hafner have, then I think he can average 50 HRs a year in his peak...

by daveh33 on May 11, 2006 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Has anyone considered...

...Morneau might just be struggling with the bone chips in his elbow that he should have had cleaned up in the offseason? I think it's also a crime that he doesn't play full time so he can learn how to hit lefties better. The Twins must accept very soon that they're not making the playoffs this year and that they need to start focusing on developing their in-house options.

"When people talk, listen completely. Most people never listen." (Hemingway)

by jmoultz on May 11, 2006 5:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

Maybe the Twins are trying to turn him into a slap hitter like they allegedly were doing with David Ortiz.

One can only hope that Mourneau follows the same fate as Ortiz. Winding up in Boston for nothing and then becoming a living legend.

by Klostrophobic on May 11, 2006 6:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Is there a problem?

As far as I can tell there have been three Twins hitters with legitimate power in the last ten years: LeCroy, Ortiz and Morneau. And Ortiz actually had a higher percentage of his hits go for home runs as a Twin than he did when he got to the Red Sox. He just got a lot more hits at age 27 than he did at age 26. I am not sure that is really unusual.

The fact is the Twin have had a lot of players with moderate power. Hunter, Jones, Koskie are three. It looks like Cuddyer is starting to show that same kind of power.

So maybe there isn't any problem. Maybe the Twin just haven't drafted guys with power, they have drafted pitchers instead.

by TT on May 11, 2006 6:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Morneau

Morneau can turn on fastballs inside and keep them in the park. He can also track curveballs, and the Bill James Handbook has him as one of the best curveball hitters in the MLB. Honestly I think his problem have been mostly injury-related. He lost a lot of true development time last year because he was playing with pain. Let's let him have some healing/development time again.

Morneau clearly has shown the ability to hit the ball out of the park (on pace for 41 HR). His Isolated Power has been huge this year, right around .250. His Isolated Discipline is right around .065, not great, but clearly not a huge red flag at this point.

It appears that his biggest problem right now is pitch selection, which could be a result of playing unhealthy. When you're not 100%, focus on pitch recognition is one of the first things you lose.

Morneau doesn't strike out a lot because he swings for the fences; he strikes out a lot because he is a sucker for a low slider. This is a good thing, because this is curable. If Morneau can get his batting average to an acceptable level (and its been moving in the right direction over the past couple weeks; a 10 for 20 stretch would put him at .269), we're looking at a 40 HR, .270/.325/.540 player using his current isolated stats and home run pace.

In sum, the major negative thing you can say about a young power hitter who just lost significant development time to an injury-plagued season is that his batting average is low due to a lapse in pitch recognition. I think that this will be corrected, and I remain guardedly optimistic that Morneau is on track to becoming one of the premiere sluggers in baseball.

by limozeen on May 12, 2006 12:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

morneau's track record in majors so far

in majors is duplicating Texeria's..
first full year
24-28 homers ba 230 - 250
second full year (this year - extrapolated for Morneau)
around 35-40 homers
ba 240 - 270
....
yea, go ahead, find the nearest ditch.

looks like another 300 power hitter bust like Tex.

by dryice on May 17, 2006 11:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs