Justin Upton already to CF; will miss 1st 2 weeks

by ultxmxpx on Apr 3, 2006 11:39 PM EDT Comment 23 comments

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060403&content_id=52304&vkey=n ews_milb&fext=.jsp

He has a shoulder injury (hence the the two weeks), and will still start out in low-A South Bend.

"I just think we all put our heads together and felt like it was best to do it right now," Byrnes said. "We think this is the best thing for him. This could allow him to advance at a faster pace."

Looks like they're prepared to advance him quickly. So now what do they do with the OF situation of Chris Young, Carlos Quentin, Carlos Gonzales, and Justin Upton? Trade one for pitching or watch one bust?

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Next year's OF

LF Carlos Quentin
RF Chris Young
CF Justin Upton

If he's healthy, I see no reason why won't be the startin CFer next year. He'll win the job in spring training. He's an absolute moster. He'll hit .400 in his low-A experience, which won't be long as long as he's healthy.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Apr 3, 2006 11:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i hear......

gonzalez has upside as high as any of them.

"Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical" - Yogi Berra

by the pinstripes on Apr 4, 2006 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've heard that too

He's probably won't be ready at the beginning of next season though. If he is, they'll be able to trade either him or Quentin for pitching hopefully. They're going to be an offensive force soon.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Apr 4, 2006 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

C.Young/Quentin/Carlos/Upton

I would think (assuming each one of these guys works out like they "should") the dbacks would move Chris Young. It would seem like a waste putting him in one of the corners when Gonzalez (does it end with a "z" or a "s"? I have seen it both ways) and Quentin profile as classic corner OFers.

I think there were a lot of factors outside of Delmons play that has kept him in the minors for this long. Sort of funny to say that with how young he still is. Be it the ineptness from the previous management the organization had to the glut of OFers. I think Justin will make a Griffey or Arod type assent up the chain. At least that's my hope.

by FRANCHISEv2 on Apr 4, 2006 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Justin in the Majors next season?

I knew he was a great talent but I am still surprised when people think he can make it to the majors after only 1 season in the minors.

I am not saying that is wrong but I thought it would take at least 2 seasons.

by VtTigers on Apr 4, 2006 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No way

It'll take Delmon Young at least two and a half seasons to make the majors - at the same age as Upton. I think it takes Upton at least two years.

by cunningt on Apr 4, 2006 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's possible

I believe it's up to the D-Backs. I'm a Rays fan, but Justin is more talented and more polished than Delmon. He's amazing. Upton may not start next year in CF, but he'll be up before July, and I think he could be ready for start of the season.

His brother made the majors in the middle of his second year, and by all accounts, Justin has more power, and is more polished than Bossman. And that's saying something, because BJ will be a super-star. Justin has been compared to Griffey Jr. and Jr was up at 19. I don't see any reason outside of injury, it takes him more than a year and a half to make it to the show.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Apr 4, 2006 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hype

I really don't know how you can make that judgement given that there are no stats to back that up. Give him at least a half season of low-A ball before declaring him the prospect in the minors with the highest upside.

There is no way he starts next season in the OF. Even Griffey and A-Rod - with their ridiculous development schedules - spent more than a year and a half in the minors each.

by cunningt on Apr 4, 2006 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hype

"I really don't know how you can make that judgement given that there are no stats to back that up."

I'm going off what I saw in spring training. The guy can flat out rake. I know, it was spring training, but he was still an 18 year old playing against big leaguers. He controlled the strike zone, was patient, and when someone threw a pitch in the zone, he crushed it.

I think he'll definitally be ready by the middle of next year. But it's not out of the relm of possiblity that he makes the team out of spring training. That's all I'm saying. I have bought the hype.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Apr 4, 2006 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Upton

"I really don't know how you can make that judgement given that there are no stats to back that up."

No stats there to back up that he's not ready either. It's the same reason he's so high on everybody's prospect lists - the guy is massively talented. Griffey played all of 130 games in the minors, Arod only played 114 before making his debut. This is a little less than a full season in both cases. I wouldn't be surprised to see him up this year at some point and be up full time early next year. Justin looked good this year in ST - he's not far away.

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Apr 4, 2006 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybin

I think it's amazing that people overlook Maybin for top-100 lists, because of a lack of stats, but Upton gets top-10 mention in spite of them.

by ian on Apr 5, 2006 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BA

rates him at 31. I don't think John rated him in his top-50 hitters though. I read John's explanation for that on this site was that he was extremely raw, and while he has exceptional tools, he needs to make them skills, which may take a few years, although he could still be a super-star.

It's not about stats with either of them. Justin Upton is not just an uber-toolsy player. Those tools have become skills, already. He has incredible plate dicipline, great power, and has a great arm, and can hit for average. The guy is a RARE polished HSer. He's in the mold of A-rod, and Griffey. He'll move quickly, and will be good.

While Maybin very well may be a really good player, he's not in the same league as Upton. That's not a knock on Maybin, that speaks to the ability of Justin Upton. He's an amazing player. One that only comes around every so often.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Apr 5, 2006 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Skills

I have yet to see anything to demonstrate that Upton has more tools, skills, production, etc.

Upton's speed is a smidgen more, his arm is a little bit stronger, but Maybin has more power (490 foot homerun as a 17 year old), and they both dominated high school competition.

I mean, Maybin hit .662 his senior year and set the career mark for NC high schoolers in runs and homeruns. And while his competition in high school was not great, he was MVP of the Connie Mack world series and performed likewise at other tournaments.

I hear "raw" and "toolsy" because his plate discipline isn't exceptional, but neither is Vlad Guerrero's or any number of guys. For a raw player, Maybin seems to perform awfully well.

You said Upton is a higher caliber than Maybin. Why, because the people I say overestimate the difference... because they say so?

by ian on Apr 5, 2006 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have

I saw Upton look GREAT against ML competition during spring training. I don't care if it's spring training, very few players can succeed against MLer's as an 18 year old. Also, every publication I've (John and BA) read has said that Upton WILL, not can will be ready in two years at the most. From those same places I've heard reports that Cameron Maybin may have some trouble with strike-zone judgement. So there are some concerns about how fast he can advance. He must learn to recognize pitches so he can drive the ball with regulaity. That's something Justin already posesses.

Don't bring up Vlad as a comparison to anyone. Vlad is in a league of his own. First of all, Vlad does have increadible plate dicipline. He's labeled as a free swinger, but in reality, he swings at pitches he can hit. He walks at a very reasonable rate. His strike-zone judgement is great, he hits the ball hard most of the time, and he doesn't strike out very often.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Apr 5, 2006 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Quentin & Young

I'd swap the 2 (Quentin in RF, Young in LF) based on arm strength. That's the long-term OF that I'd go with.

As far as Gonzales is concerned, if he hits with power, I'd move him to 1b and move Jackson to the AL for pitching, but that's just me...

by jc3 on Apr 4, 2006 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gonzales at 1b?

That would be a waste. He's got some speed and a great arm. 1B would be negating his defensive value, which is probably at least as good if not better than any other OF prospect they have.

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Apr 4, 2006 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it was only time

i think everyone basically knew they were going to make this move. hes on the fast track now.

by npurcell on Apr 4, 2006 12:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think it's the right move.

But I was surprised how quickly they did it. Maybe I'm just thinking in terms of his brother...

by abbreviatedman on Apr 4, 2006 1:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The difference

BJ was praised coming out of HS as a great defender. Justin was not. Acutally, Justin was moved to third late in his HS career because of problems throwing and with inconsistency.

Plus, the D-Backs already have a SS of the future in Drew, Bossman is the Rays best bet.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Apr 4, 2006 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Upton

I think the team feels that Drew is the long-term solution at SS and Upton's speed will be better utilized at CF.
I think it also marks the new aggressiveness in the front office when it comes to the minor leagues. They've more or less promoted the entire Low A South Bend team of 2005 to High A and Double A this year.

by William K on Apr 4, 2006 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which outfield prospect will fail or be traded?

Now that the D-backs did the right thing by avoiding the shortstop-dog and pony show, Upton will get to the Majors sooner.With his tools, to play any other position would have been an injustice. Kudos to the D-backs for having some insight.

As I see it there are now four very good outfield prospects- Upton,Young, Gonzalez, and Quentin. Assuming that Upton is the centerfielder of the near future, who will patrol LF and RF?

Quentin- Of all the outfield prospects Quentin in theory has nothing left to prove at AAA and is the quinntessential prototype for a rightfielder. I'm thinking that Quentin is up by the All-star break.He might initially play center but he is the rightfielder of the future.I look for Green to get traded.
Gonzalez- Even though his minor league career is just starting. Many scouts predict that Gonzalez will just explode in the California league and be one of the very best prospects in baseball at such a young age. He might end up being the best hitter in the entire organization when he matures.He will end of playing in leftfielder although he does have tools to play right.
Young- Young, who the D-backs stole from the White Sox, could probably be flipped for a power arm that the team desperately needs. His strikeout rates are high and many question his ability to hit for .300 in the Majors. My guess is that they should trade him while his value is high.However, they could hang on to him for this year as insurance in case on the the D-backs outfielders get hurt and the better Young plays the more his trade value goes up.

by slugggo on Apr 4, 2006 4:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why...

does Young have to hit .300 in the majors to matter?

IMO he's much more likely to be a good player than Gonzalez.

But assuming everyone works out, why not trade Jackson to an AL team in the future (when Gonzalez is ready) and play Quentin at 1st?

Then have an OF of Upton in CF, Young in LF, and Gonzalez in RF. Seems like it'd be the best combo of offense and defense for the team all around no?

by SenorGato88 on Apr 4, 2006 11:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's hard to predict the future

Just like I told you before it would be a shame to play Upton anywhere else but centerfield, it would be a shame to play Quentin in any outfield position other than rightfield.Quentin has gold glove capabilties in right. The organization is very high on Jackson, but if the right deal were struck for a pitcher one never knows.Therefore one of the outfielders other than Upton and possibly Gonzalez will be dealt. If Young has the most value then the Dbacks would get quality for him. Otherwise the Dbacks would be the Devilrays of the National League with respect to their outfield logjam.

I just hopt that Young does his part and plays well for this scenario to work out. The Dbacks need pitchers.

by slugggo on Apr 5, 2006 12:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs