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Jose Reyes

Admittedly, I am a big Reyes supporter, so I may be seeing something more than there is, but hidden in his hideous looking 242/296/363 line is 7 BB in 91 AB, a major improvement so far. I've watched him a lot this year and he seems to be getting underneath the ball a lot and not using his speed to leg out hits like he did in the 2nd half last year, but if he can combine this new batting eye with his groundball approach from last year, we could be looking at a legitimate leadoff hitter after all. He looks like a guy who could be putting it all together in very short order.

BTW, 18 runs in 21 games with a .296 OBP is pretty remarkable considering he's only got 1 HR...

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Score % Analysis?
18 runs in 31 times on base (22 hits + 9 BB) is incredibly high - a 58% score percentage.  Reyes last year was at about 38%, and that was the highest number I saw among regular players. (Bill James Handbook has Score % in it).

I'm thinking it has more to do with the rest of the lineup, but here's an analysis anyway of how often Reyes took an extra base or scored on a sac fly.  It actually favors Reyes more than the people who knock him in, in that a slower player might not have taken the extra base.  

The Goods

Reyes had taken a lot of extra bases (by which I mean going from 1st to 3rd on a single, 1st to home on a double, 1st to home on a single, or 2nd to home on a single) - He's done the above 10 times, and scored each time - the only time he went from 1st to 3rd, he ended up scoring on a fielder's choice.  

That's 10 times out of 31 times on base, which is remarkable.  Unsustainable, but remarkable nonetheless.  

By my count, this is out of only 11 chances - he has only stopped at 2nd on a single once.  He has not yet scored from first on a single.

When he scored from 2nd on a single, 4 times, it was because he singled then stole second.  Another time, he stole 2nd, took 3rd on the throwing error, and scored on the next hit, a single.

He has moved over by sacrifice (bunt or fly) 6 times.  This has resulted in 4 runs.

So of the 18 times he scored, 10 were at least partially because he took an extra base.  2 were from scoring on sac flies, 2 from a sacrifice to move him over to 3rd and a single, one from a double play, one from taking 3rd after a throwing error on his steal attempt and a subsequent single, and only 2 by the home run (one from himself, one from Delgado)

He has stolen 10 bases, been caught 2 times, and picked off once.  If you don't count the pickoff as a CS, that's 83.3% SB/CS, and if you do, it's about 76%.  

This is interesting stuff - while Reyes obviously needs a higher OBP, he has in fact made the most of his times on base.  The people behind him have had hits, but Reyes has taken the extra base on nearly ALL of those hits.

This analysis seems really ludicrous to me, but from what I tell from the box scores and play by plays, it's accurate.

by sasquatch83 on Apr 27, 2006 11:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Correction
Make that only 29 times on base - 7 BB and not 9.  That's even crazier.

by sasquatch83 on Apr 27, 2006 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

interesting
also, as a team, to date, the Mets have left a total of 138 runners on base, which is 3rd lowest among NL teams.  With a team OBP of .326, 11th in the NL, the Mets are going to have to hope this luck keeps up.

Nonetheless, speed is worth something:  it's better to have Reyes on 1st than Giambi, but if you believe Dan Fox's essay on incremental baseruns, it's not worth more than a few wins a year.

by Azteca on Apr 27, 2006 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I loved reading this....
...excellent observations/explanation...it's also why I took Reyes so early in my fantasy draft...

by daveh33 on Apr 27, 2006 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great analysis
Thanks for all of this... this really is great detail. I always thought that Reyes had a great impact as a baserunner, and this spells it out really well.

by jc3 on Apr 27, 2006 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reyes...
I was thinking about this sort of thing a couple of weeks ago, so I actually asked a bunch of fellow Met fans if they could remember the last time that Reyes was actually thrown out trying for an extra base? I honestly can't remember him getting nailed attempting to stretch a double into a triple, or a single into a double, and nobody else really could either. Everyone can see that he's fast as hell, but obviously he's becoming a very good baserunner as well...

Of course he'd be even more dangerous if he starts getting on more, but his baserunning demonstrates that he is capable of improving his game. I've seen enough of guys like Jay Payton to last a lifetime. You know, the kind who can flat out fly, but couldn't steal a base if you handed it to them...

by MetfanBren on Apr 27, 2006 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree
Good stuff

by Josh on Apr 27, 2006 2:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

agreed
i've been saying similar things for a long time but you articulated them better than i ever could have

by robcast23 on Apr 27, 2006 2:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Note
Thanks for the support.  I enjoyed looking this stuff up - I had been curious about it ever since I saw his high score % in the Bill James Handbook.

It's still true though, that Reyes isn't a good leadoff hitter.  When he gets on, he scores more often, and it would seem, creates more than other players, but he still makes too many outs (I think), which then offsets his abilities when on base from a statistical standpoint.

But if the above is real ability, and not just small sample size, he's a better baserunner than I had thought, and if he can increase his contact, keep up the walk rate, and make fewer outs, then I can easily see him being one of the best leadoff hitters in the game (if you believe in leadoff hitters, of course).

by sasquatch83 on Apr 27, 2006 2:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes, but
With his OBP at around .300 last year, I was hoping he could push it to around .340 this year and keep it headed upward, maybe hitting .370 eventually. While I'm a big Reyes booster, I think .400 might be too much to hope for.

While he flashes some amazing tools sometimes, the longer he sits at around .300 OBP, the less and less likely he's ever going to reach what most people (including myself) think is his wondrous potential.

I've seen him a couple of times this year and he's noticeably more patient, but damn it must be hard to hit after letting a couple of hittable pitches go by. The added walks are good to see, I just hope it doesn't affect him too much as a hitter.

by Flynn Blake on Apr 27, 2006 2:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
I don't know that anyone expects him to have a .400 OBP though.  What I would like to know is this - if his OBP peaks at .350 or .360, are his baserunning skills enough to compensate for a slightly lower OBP.  

If he makes X more outs than someone we consider a great leadoff hitter, how far does he speed go to compensate for those lost runs?

by sasquatch83 on Apr 27, 2006 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

leadoff hitters OBP
how many leadoff hitters even have a .400OBP? If Reyes gets near .360 my guess is he'll be roughly on par w/ most leadoff guys.
"I may not be a class act, but I'm an American." Ron Artest on wanting to play for the Olympic team

by natsfan2005 on Apr 27, 2006 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good point
Here is a Baseball Musings.com post about leading off.  It looks like a .350 OBP would put Reyes in decent company (Furcal is a good comparison there).

I knew Reyes made a ton of outs last year, but I didn't know it was good enough for 4th all time

by sasquatch83 on Apr 27, 2006 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

great points
I've watched all most every game Reyes has played with the Mets and these are all great points. If you listen to the broadcasters for the games Keith Hernandez and Gary Cohen they hit on something everytime he comes up. He is swinging under the ball too much and not driving it on the ground nearly enough. Its the most apparent thing you notice while watching him other than his speed. Personally my bias opinion is that he is the fastest playing in the MLB, and once he learns how to really steal a base he will be an even more dominate force on the base paths. After his HR he hasn't been hitting on the ground at all, and hasn't been using the drag bnt either.
I forsee him continuing to learn as a hitter, and eventully accept that he isn't the HR theart and bring it up aroudn 360-400 again. Hey a man can dream can't he.

by Metty5 on Apr 27, 2006 6:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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