Saturday Discussion: College Baseball

by John Sickels on Apr 22, 2006 11:17 AM EDT in News Comment 36 comments

I am buried in a research project right now and I probably won't be able to get the Hanley Ramirez piece done until Sunday. Sorry for the delay, but I don't want to do a half-assed job for you.

For today, I'd like to suggest we discuss college baseball. Right now I am doing extensive research of college players in the upcoming draft. With few exceptions, this is a very weak crop, especially for hitting.

We have a lot of people here who follow the college game, and I'd like to hear who you guys think are the major sleepers from colleges in the draft this year, guys you think are overlooked or underappreciated.

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melancon/erickson/perez

if i am not mistaken, these are the top three relief pitchers in the 2006 draft class. i don't know much about perez (well, i don't know much about any of the three of them, but i know even less about perez).

what are the differences between these three players? which of them would be ready sooner? which of them has a higher ceiling?

by overlord on Apr 22, 2006 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gavin Dickey, UF

for full disclosure: He was on my little league team. And he was ridiculous.

I think he's one of these guys who has a chance to break it big or fall apart in AA. Until this year he was splitting time with the football team, and his component numbers show it (33 Ks, 5 BBs--though with 11 HBPs). But he's developed power this year (10 hrs, 35 rbi) and has raised his average (.345 in conference).

If he can develop some strike zone judgement, his athleticism could make him a guy who comes out of seemingly nowhere.

by goheels on Apr 22, 2006 12:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

College class impressions

I went through a 40-round minor league draft that included 2006 amateur draft eligibles in February, for a new sabermetric league with realistic MLB roster rules. And it quickly became apparent that that there was no Rickie Weeks in that draft class. Drew Stubbs was the first amateur off the board with pick No. 127 (by someone else), which was early in retrospect given questions about his contact skills. Then another team snagged Andrew Miller and Ian Kennedy. I realize Miller has a very high ceiling, but his control issues seemed pretty risky to me, at least then. And Kennedy seems to have a lower ceiling. I ended up with 1B Matt LaPorta in Round 11 (No. 158 overall), OF Shane Robinson (No. 353 overall), C Chad Tracy (No. 443 overall) and C Michael Ambort (No. 563 overall). Hey, it's a two-catcher league. In the last round, I took the Devil Rays' draft-and-follow Bryan Morris, a top-rated Juco guy who seems to have the stuff to be a first-rounder if he doesn't sign before the draft. I'm optimistic about how LaPorta's power and Robinson's strike zone judgement will translate in the pros.

by igreen01 on Apr 22, 2006 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Morris

had been dominant during his JuCo season until he got hurt. He also plays CF and broke his non-pitching hand diving into second base. I really really, really, really, is that enough really's? Really like him. Apparently the Rays have worked out a deal to sign him for 1.5 million, but he already started college so he can't sign it until the season ends. I hope both sides stick to their agreement.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Apr 22, 2006 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who wants to...

jump on the Andrew Miller is overrated bandwagon with me?

by templeUsox on Apr 22, 2006 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not me

and I want the Royals and Rockies to jump off too!

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Apr 22, 2006 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I will

Miller is good. I don't think he's going to be great. I don't like his mechanics.

The guy I really like is Tim Lincecum (although his walk totals bother me). I hope he lasts until #4.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Apr 22, 2006 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I feel...

the exact same way. I could see Miller as a #2 or 3. But this mini-unit stuff is totally overblown. I do love Lincecum though.

by templeUsox on Apr 22, 2006 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Miller

I've watched quite a few of his starts, but I'm a UNC student so I'm a bit biased.
I've never seen a pitcher be as dominant as Miller has been this season, at least the times that I've watched him. Of course, I don't see a lot of college baseball outside of the ACC so that's not a huge endorsement.
It seems like every ball hit off of him is either a little flare to the opposite field for a single or a weak ground ball. It's very rare for him to be hit hard. He lives down in the zone and has good movement on the ball. He gets in trouble when he strings together walks and hbps and then gives up that hit. He just looks like he's in a class of his own most games.
I'm not sure he'll be a #1 starter (it's rare to find someone who is), but I wouldn't be surprised of a lot of years of above average performance by him.

by Ellis on Apr 23, 2006 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

Hey, good update, thanks. I guess if a pitcher's gonna get injured, "non-pitching hand" is about as good as it gets!

by igreen01 on Apr 22, 2006 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Apparently

He's back healthy again. It's a JuCo so their stats online aren't very detailed. All I have is 1.16 ERA, 84K's, 62IP, and he's 7-1 (not that it matters at all.) But he's doing well, dominating inferior competition I realize but still.

He also is hitting .387 and leads the team in walks with 18 and second in HR with 7. None of this matters, except that it points to what a great athlete he is, which is always a bonus on the mound.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Apr 22, 2006 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kainer

While he does not have the same potential as the other Longhorn outfielders (Subbs, Russell, and Danks) he has been a solid player throughout his years at UT.

by gk314 on Apr 22, 2006 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

David Freese

Freese is a third baseman at University of South Alabama. Quite possibly not a first rounder, but certainly has the make-up to be one of the biggest sleeper picks in '06. Projects as a future outfielder or first baseman. Currently hitting .449, slugging .747, just 18 strikeouts against 23 walks in 158 at bats, 10 homeruns and 58 RBIs.

by StickRat on Apr 22, 2006 2:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lincecum Vs Kennedy

Went to USC vs Washington yesterday to check out two first rounders clash. Lincecum could end up the first overall pick, and the Kid has two plus pitches now and is working on a changeup, but it didn't look like he threw it yesterday. His fastball has been clocked near 100 and he was pumping hi 90's yesterday. He adds and subtracts on his curveball to give a different speed, but I think he should keep developing his change up so he has a bigger change in speeds between the two pitches. He'll probably have to iron out his delivery too, as he seriously tilts his head, which could be the cause for his walk rates (5-6/9IP), but he has nearly 140 k's in less than 90 IP. He pitched six innings yesterday and struck out 11 (i think) giving up two runs in the first inning, after that he pretty much cruised until the fifth where he pitched out of a jam. He had to sit for a while, as the Huskies put up 7 runs in the top half of the inning (and Kennedy got knocked out)some pics below, and will follow up with a Kennedy post to keep this one relatively short.

by SoCalSoxFan on Apr 22, 2006 5:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lincecum Vs Kennedy II

For everything Lincecum is, Kennedy is about as opposite as can be. Very fluid and smooth, very polished and has "pitchability". He reminds me of Tom Seaver, with pretty big legs and excellant leg drive. I always remember Seaver with the dirty knee from driving so low to the ground, Kennedy is similar.

Stuffwise, Kennedy reminds me of Mike Mussina, not the younger version, but how he pitches now. Reports are he isn't throwing as hard this year, but he seems to be able to dial it up a little more when he needs to. He also throws an offspeed pitch that is a cross between a splitty and a circle change, i blew up a pic a little bit so you could see the grip, kind of trippy. I've heard of the Vulcan Change Up, but not many guys use it. He pitched pretty well up until the fifth inning, when he was tagged for 7 runs and knocked out of the game. Walks, an error and another play that should have been made in LF really cost him as he probably threw 40 pitches or so that inning. He also took a shot off of the thigh, this could have had an effect on him. Back on Lincecum, I can already see comp's of Roy Oswalt because of the size and his fastball curveball combo. He beaned a guy last night, and i kid you not, the ball rolled half way down the third base line. .OUCH.

by SoCalSoxFan on Apr 22, 2006 5:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks!!

Thanks a lot SoCalSoxFan!! Those two posts were very informative. I am curious, do you know how hard Kennedy was sitting at? And when he cranked it up what was he able to reach? Also how was his command and how many strikeouts did he get?

Thanks. And I also do see the Oswalt Lincecum comparisons. His stock has definitely shot way up.

Sabean, stop giving away our 1st round draft picks!!

by z4 landshark on Apr 22, 2006 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

kennedy

Sitting more at 89-90, and up to 92. . .down a little from beginning of season and last year

by SoCalSoxFan on Apr 22, 2006 6:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

cool

that was a really neat report. i was hoping somebody from this site would go to the game and post some pics, and i was not disappointed :)

by jpahk on Apr 22, 2006 7:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i was

surprised at the lack of fans. . . a lot of scouts, the friggin USC BAND, and a few drunk idiots, but that was about it

by SoCalSoxFan on Apr 22, 2006 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitt

Jim Negrych?

by FI on Apr 23, 2006 12:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thoughts on...

Brad Lincoln anyone?

Think he's pushing himself into position to be drafted by the Cubs at 12?

Any thoughts on his stuff and command? Where would you rank him in this years class?

Is he projectable at all, even if he is short? Can he possibly add velocity to his fastball?

by SenorGato88 on Apr 23, 2006 12:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lincoln

He is definitely a top-10 guy. Word has it that he is getting consideration by KC as the #1 guy. He is likely to be be a top 5 pick, and definitely in the top 10.

From what I have heard, Lincoln is one of the safest picks this year. He has been remarkably consistent. His stuff is good but not exceptional. He has a good FB and a very good curve. I think he also throws a decent change. The main thing that scouts count against him is his size. But he is a really good prospect.

Among the college pitchers, there is Miller as the top guy, then Brandon Morrow, Lincoln, and Tim Lincecum are all in the discussion for #2. Max Scherzer is also in that group if he gets healthy.

by Jerry on Apr 23, 2006 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've heard...

he's a possible top 5 pick. So he might have to slip a little to get down to #12.

I'd also be a tad wary of UH pitchers.

by templeUsox on Apr 23, 2006 1:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Later Rounds

There are quite a few interesting college pitchers who should be availaible in rounds 2-5 once you get past the flawed top tier.

Dave Huff, LHP UCLA has put up nice periperals this year

Eddie Degerman, Sr. RHP Rice Has been lights out for the Owls.

Josh Butler, RHP San Diego

Jared Hughes and Andrew Carpenter, RHP's Long Beach State.

Doug Fister, 6'8" RHP Fresno State

Derick Olvey, RHP, LSU

There's a RHP Florida State, I can't think of his name right now.

Jonah Nickerson, RHP Oregon State.

by DrBGiantsfan on Apr 23, 2006 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

FSU pitcher

Tyler Chambliss or Bryan Henry?

by goheels on Apr 23, 2006 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Henry.....

but Chambliss would fit the description too. He's a converted closer.

by DrBGiantsfan on Apr 23, 2006 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Others

Other interesting guys:

Luke Hochevar is the biggest wild card in the draft. It will be really interesting to see what happens with him.

Plus, there are several college starters who have great results without dominant numbers:

Nathan Culp
Robert Woodard
Wade LeBlanc

There is pretty good depth in the starters this year, especially if you consider the prep players.

by Jerry on Apr 23, 2006 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which College Pitcher....

will have the shortest stay in the minors?

That's who the Rays need to draft.

by The Rocc on Apr 23, 2006 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lincoln and Lincicum

These two guys seem to be the most major league ready. Joba Chamberlain too, if he's healthy.

by DrBGiantsfan on Apr 23, 2006 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kyle Drabek and Brett Anderson

Two high school pitchers who may be major league ready before most college pitchers. The D'Rays might want to look at either of them. Drabek is the son of former Cy Young Award winner Doug and Anderson is the son of a college baseball coach.

by DrBGiantsfan on Apr 23, 2006 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Brandon Morrow

what can people tell me about him?? I heard from a friend that he reminds him of Verlander when he was coming out of the draft.

A viable comparison?

by bballfanlvnv on Apr 23, 2006 2:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Morrow and Verlander

I made that comparison on another message board and got absolutely flamed for it. I still think they have similar profiles, though.

by DrBGiantsfan on Apr 23, 2006 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Morrow

Verlander's K/9 his junior year was nearly 13, Morrow's is about 9.

by ian on Apr 23, 2006 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comparison

I dont think a K ratio explains it all. The lack of control, the "stuff" each has, the talk of being possibly a closer, etc....

it seems as though both have a lot of the same similarities...

also, Verlander played at Old Dominion. Morrow plays at Cal, so that might have some to do with the K ratio. Morrow's conference is much tougher.

by bballfanlvnv on Apr 23, 2006 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

comparison

Scherzer is more Verlander then Morrow IMO.

by npurcell on Apr 24, 2006 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sleepers

This is kind of buried now, but Daniel Bard's outing today against NC State was nothing short of spectacular. He tossed a complete game, four hit shutout with 8 strikeouts and no walks, plus 71 of his 106 pitches were strikes. I've mentioned Bard a few times on this site and it probably seems like I've got some kind of agenda in hyping him up, but honestly this isn't the case. I've seen him pitch, but that is the extent of my love for him...I actually am no fan of UNC sports (with friends that now go there, it is more fun to root against them). Anyway, I just think that he remains a solid college pitching arm and a guy likely to be picked in the top half of the first round - if his recent struggles have caused people to doubt him (and I seriously don't blame the doubters, lack of secondary stuff and control issues are indeed problems) then maybe this qualifies him as a "sleeper" for the upcoming draft.

As far as some more by the book sleeper-types...how about Adam Ottavino from Northeastern? He is coming off a 16 strikeout performance against William & Mary, had a 12 K, 2 ER allowed performance at GT earlier in the year, and tossed a no-hitter at home against JMU (the first no hitter at any level I've ever seen in person, by the way). Anybody have any ideas where Ottavino could see himself picked in the upcoming draft?

Another player I've liked that I've seen in person (and unfortunately that isn't draft eligible so is somewhat irrelevant to the discussion) is Jack Rye, a sophomore from Florida State. Someone to keep on eye on for next year, I suppose.

by roboz on Apr 23, 2006 8:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs